Mass Effect Mystery Box Mafia Game
- Thread starter Sathoris
- Start date
Yes. Look at it from a different perspective; what happens if the confirmed townie presents a case against you, and you know you're town? Which of the two others are more scummy; the person who follows the lead of the confirmed townie, or the person who goes - "Hey, you might be wrong about him. What about player X?"?
Can you clarify this for me? Because I'm reading this as "If you're mafia, we should leave you alive."
Also, it appears that you're suggesting that Numbers is either town and telling the truth and has another shot, or is scum and is lying about having another shot. This appears to me that you're suggesting the contents of the boxes are weighted against who's opening them (i.e., town gets > 1 shot, mafia gets = 1 shot). Are you discounting the possibilities of a townie lying or a mafia telling the truth?
@Numbers
Do you agree that it is highly unlikely that four vigilante shots would be unboxed this early in the game?
Do you agree that it is highly unlikely that four vigilante shots would be unboxed this early in the game?
Unvote: Numbers
Vote: Caluin Graye
I said a flip, flop a flippy to the flippy the bang bag sha boogy to the boogy to the boogy the beat.
Caluin Graye has crafted a story that we all ate up like a couple of starved children. What better way to gain town cred than to disperse the decisions of your box (heh) to the masses? What even better when he presents a shot, knowing the masses would say "oh no!", but wait! Plot twist! M. Night. Shamalayan would be proud. He doesn't HAVE to shoot someone. He can SAVE someone as well. Now he is a hero and we have a town ie confirmed, hooray!
I don't believe four vigilante shots have been opened at this stage of the game or any stage of the game.
I believe Caluin Graye is lying.
I may be an idiot who missed blatant contradictions to this theory (I.E. has anyone opened a similar box to CGs miracle box?).
Boxes does not = alignment.
This theory is more believable than gory trading for invisiboxes, so don't flame me too hard.
Vote: Caluin Graye
I said a flip, flop a flippy to the flippy the bang bag sha boogy to the boogy to the boogy the beat.
Caluin Graye has crafted a story that we all ate up like a couple of starved children. What better way to gain town cred than to disperse the decisions of your box (heh) to the masses? What even better when he presents a shot, knowing the masses would say "oh no!", but wait! Plot twist! M. Night. Shamalayan would be proud. He doesn't HAVE to shoot someone. He can SAVE someone as well. Now he is a hero and we have a town ie confirmed, hooray!
I don't believe four vigilante shots have been opened at this stage of the game or any stage of the game.
I believe Caluin Graye is lying.
I may be an idiot who missed blatant contradictions to this theory (I.E. has anyone opened a similar box to CGs miracle box?).
Boxes does not = alignment.
This theory is more believable than gory trading for invisiboxes, so don't flame me too hard.
- Apr 8, 2006
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There are a lot of questions in your post, but I'll do my best. Do keep in mind my previous post though.
I believe that Numbers told the truth on day one and gave us valuable information about the possibility of boxes switching alignment. Because I believe that information, I must conclude that Numbers is either townie and warning investigative roles that there might be alignment switching or that he's mafia sharing info that seems useful to town (but is probably irrelevant to mafia) to gain townie points. The rest of his play has been consistent with his previous townie play so I have leaned towards thinking he is townie; however, you can see me suggesting alternatives throughout the day phase.
I do believe he made the shot because you don't make a post as long as he did 3 minutes after day start unless you are expecting a 2nd kill and want to give out the info about it right away. To me the question of whether that's a town or a mafia play (taking immediate credit) is too much wifom.
I do believe the boxes could possibly have different results depending upon the alignment of the person opening the box, but that's speculative at best.
I am not discounting the possibility of a townie lying or mafia telling the truth. In fact, I pointed out on day one that Numbers could very well be scum and giving us the info his box contained. I noted that the info seemed to me to be logical to believe but that it said nothing of his alignment. I also pointed out that BPC might have lied about what he got from opening his box. I might just as easily have lied when I said that my box gave me info and that the info was that my box did nothing. Sometimes it is the right play for a townie to withhold information or even go so far as to tell an outright lie.
I do not believe that we need to lynch Numbers today. The only question raised by his claim is whether Laarz was mafia or not. I believe if the mafia team kills Numbers during the night, we can fairly safely assume that Laarz was scum, and I also believe that while we can learn some info today, it is possible that we could learn more information later. As you said yourself, we probably will need to lynch Numbers at some point to clarify the information tied to his claims.
I'm very curious why there are so many votes on him today. We have no real evidence that he's scum. His play has read to me very much like he always plays. He has implied that he has at least one more shot and he even gave us his reads and asked for player input on how to proceed. Why kill him today? Either the mafia will kill him and solidify the information for us, or they will think he's bluffing about another shot and leave him alive and we can see if he really has another shot and get more information.
Right now we don't seem to have any investigators who have found anything, so I find it suspect that the only lynch train forming is on the one person who has given us information and will be in a position to give us even more information (based upon what he does or does not do or what is done or is not done to him) if we leave him alive for now.
It's like you said, and it bears repeating: We probably eventually have to lynch him if he stays alive ... but I've seen no actual case against him or anything that looks like a slip or even any justification from anyone voting for him why he ought to be killed today.
I don't know his alignment, but if he is telling the truth, the one faction that wants the least information in the game is the mafia so when I see a push to eliminate a potential source of information without any real case, I question that push, and those making it.
I think perhaps some folks are mistaking my questioning of the play as a defense of the person. I've got no idea whether Numbers is what he claims to be or not. We have yet to see him as scum, but he's a pretty smart guy and it's quite possible that he is indeed scum. The point; however, is that so far there isn't really any case against him.
I'd be much happier to lynch someone lurking or someone who actually has seemed scummy and see how Numbers' claims play out.
I believe you shot my friend.
To me, that makes you scum till the end!
If x is more than one,
Do you think this game, with mafia holding the shots, would still be fun?
I wonder if they can kill us all in one night.
If so, buckle your seat belts tight!
If Laarz was scum,
and the number of mafia is reduced by one,
how many mafia do you think are around?
Will they burn the town to the ground?
It's possible he could have been.
If he was scum, the box was a great town win.
If he was town though,
I don't think we'll know.
Bingo!! You're the second to keep saying this very thing.
It makes me want to dance and sing.
But, alas, nobody is listening
They focus on boxes, while the point they are missing!
I have already said what info my box gave.
To repeat it here would require it just the same.
I instead invite you to go look,
And if need be, write it in your book.
What about multi shot worries you?
Do you fear it marks your doom?
What if we do mass box claim?
If we all tell the truth, what information do we gain?
My actions are pretty obvious to anybody who has read this game.
Yes, my boxes were accompanied by both level and a name.
The outcome to date has me question if I am still sane.
I want to make a porno comment about eating a box
But I figured it best to not.
Did you try to open the box inside your box?
Does that box have a level and name like the others or not?
With all these shots yet to fly over our heads
I feel like I need to take meds.
How many more vigs do you think are in here?
A lot more? Oh dear!
What what in the butt!
I agree, he sounds like a nut!!
I will not participate in this silly vote plan.
I did not participate in the other, and my ground I will stand.
Boom goes the dynamite!
Oh yeah, that's right!
It depends on how "random" the distribution of powers initially was. Those shots are claimed by 3 people, who have by now had the option to open their box 4 times, and trade from the shelf 2 times. If there wasn't much overlap between the boxes people chose(and by now, because of the redundancy of having this second opportunity to open a box) it seems likely to me that the majority of the boxes should have been claimed and opened by now. the only person who DEFINITELY only had one box was zauper(which we know was the case(unless zokars lying) from zokars information that he didn't open his box), which means if there were 3 boxes containing vigilante shots, it's very likely they were all opened by now. Is it likely that the game setup contained 3 boxes with vigilante shots? Possibly. It's very swingy. Simply by virtue of there being more town than scum, it's more likely that town will end up with the vig shots than scum will, which serves to balance out the possibility of scum having 3 extra kills.
Why would a level 3 box contain two shots and a level two box contain one and a level one contain one as well?
You can't predict who will end up with the boxes and you can't plan for balance. You can balance for balance, but you can't hope that X happens in the balance of the game, that's a broken game.
If you don't believe that everyone who has claimed a vigilante shot has one then you need to shoot one of the claimed vigilantes because one of them is lying.
As of now, I am banking on that being CG.
I need to go to bed so this will not be as thorough as I am hoping for and a VERY quick glance is telling me that not all boxes have a level 1, 2 and 3 option:
YOUR 2 SMALL / Level 1
Blue Rose of Illium / Level 2
Servant of the People / Level 3
Urdnot Wrex can't keep his hands of a fertile female / Level 2
I am a Biotic God… Fear me! / Level 3
Emergency Induction Port /Level 3
Qwib Qwib or Ectomy / Level 2
Geth do not infiltrate / Level 2
Primary Codex / Level 1
Refund guy / Level 1
Blasto the Jellyfish Stings / Level 1
Don’t f*** with Aria / Level 3
Scan all the planets! / Level 2
No salarian hearts, no turian livers, not one krogan testicle / Level 2
Remember the old days when you could just slap Omni-gel on everything / Level 2
Some neighbours came by last night to complain about the noise. I put their bodies in the building incinerator / Level 3
The role of commander Shephard is already filled / Level 2
The man cleaning the toilets is also preparing the meals / Level 3
Conrad Verner / Level 2
You’ll have to make them scream a little / Level 1
Scan the Keepers / Level 2
Sir, they have flashlightheads / Level 1
I’ll never work for Cerberus / Level 1
This is why I follow you Shephard... BIG THINGS! / Level 1
The organics would never try the no-windows thing twice. / Level 3
Who ordered pizza? / Level 3
Do not open this box! / Level 2
Ah yes “Reapersâ€. We have dismissed that claim / Level 2
But the prize! /Level 3
I have a shotgun. Mmmmmaybe we’ll talk later. / Level 3 –
Trying to determine how scale-itch got onto Normandy. Sexually transmitted disease, only carried by varren. Implications...unpleasant. / Level 2
Based on deductive reasoning we have informative boxes, action boxes and unimportant boxes. So we have two boxes already that have revealed (true or not) to contain a vigilante shot or two. We also have a box that contained a vigilante shot and a save from lynch shot. I had a box that makes me hard to kill, that's another action box. Pharphis was killed by opening his box, that's another action box. I have another box that I am almost positive is an action box that will not contain a vigilante shot.
Without revealing the contents of said boxes, I think anyone who had an action box needs to come forward because the numbers eventually won't add up. I believe we had a 33% split between the three categories and based on what has been said 6 of 31 boxes have had an action shot.
3 of these are vigilante shots. Rounding down shows us that 10 action boxes would be in play making 3 vigilante boxes 30% of the actions of the entire game on top of a mafia kill already. If someone wants to dig deeper into whats been claimed and what hasnt in terms of box names, I applaud you, but I am going to sleep.
YOUR 2 SMALL / Level 1
Blue Rose of Illium / Level 2
Servant of the People / Level 3
Urdnot Wrex can't keep his hands of a fertile female / Level 2
I am a Biotic God… Fear me! / Level 3
Emergency Induction Port /Level 3
Qwib Qwib or Ectomy / Level 2
Geth do not infiltrate / Level 2
Primary Codex / Level 1
Refund guy / Level 1
Blasto the Jellyfish Stings / Level 1
Don’t f*** with Aria / Level 3
Scan all the planets! / Level 2
No salarian hearts, no turian livers, not one krogan testicle / Level 2
Remember the old days when you could just slap Omni-gel on everything / Level 2
Some neighbours came by last night to complain about the noise. I put their bodies in the building incinerator / Level 3
The role of commander Shephard is already filled / Level 2
The man cleaning the toilets is also preparing the meals / Level 3
Conrad Verner / Level 2
You’ll have to make them scream a little / Level 1
Scan the Keepers / Level 2
Sir, they have flashlightheads / Level 1
I’ll never work for Cerberus / Level 1
This is why I follow you Shephard... BIG THINGS! / Level 1
The organics would never try the no-windows thing twice. / Level 3
Who ordered pizza? / Level 3
Do not open this box! / Level 2
Ah yes “Reapersâ€. We have dismissed that claim / Level 2
But the prize! /Level 3
I have a shotgun. Mmmmmaybe we’ll talk later. / Level 3 –
Trying to determine how scale-itch got onto Normandy. Sexually transmitted disease, only carried by varren. Implications...unpleasant. / Level 2
Based on deductive reasoning we have informative boxes, action boxes and unimportant boxes. So we have two boxes already that have revealed (true or not) to contain a vigilante shot or two. We also have a box that contained a vigilante shot and a save from lynch shot. I had a box that makes me hard to kill, that's another action box. Pharphis was killed by opening his box, that's another action box. I have another box that I am almost positive is an action box that will not contain a vigilante shot.
Without revealing the contents of said boxes, I think anyone who had an action box needs to come forward because the numbers eventually won't add up. I believe we had a 33% split between the three categories and based on what has been said 6 of 31 boxes have had an action shot.
3 of these are vigilante shots. Rounding down shows us that 10 action boxes would be in play making 3 vigilante boxes 30% of the actions of the entire game on top of a mafia kill already. If someone wants to dig deeper into whats been claimed and what hasnt in terms of box names, I applaud you, but I am going to sleep.
And if there are three vigilantes I would not at all be shocked to see two cops and two docs each especially since everyone was a vanilla townie. That's ten boxes already making up all of the action boxes.
Something doesn't add up
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Something doesn't add up
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Sorry for my absence everyone, April 15th was extremely busy being the end of tax season, and then the 16th was my last day, so it was full of arranging all of my work from the past 5 years and telling everyone what I did/needs done, followed by drinks afterward. But now you have my full (mostly) undivided attention. I need to catch up though so it may be a while, but I did do a skim of the thread so far. Based on that skim though, I think this is the most appropriate plan of action:
Vote: Drixx
and I think I'll leave that there until I get fully caught up.
Vote: Drixx
and I think I'll leave that there until I get fully caught up.
Yeah, I believe the "results". I believe he is mafia, Laarz was mafia, and that Laarz died killing CDM and not by Numbers' hand. Hence, Numbers does know Laarz was mafia, but he's lying about shooting Laarz. If that makes any sense.
Only one opening per phase afaik, so I didn't open the box inside the box last night but rather this day phase. It did have a name, but no level.
I'm also open to switching my vote for Numbers, he might actually be the more certain evil between him and BA.
I apologize for the Drixx length post, but I have a lot to catch up on it seems.
Alright, lets go back, end of last day phase, Numbers suggest a follow the leader attempt with Jcakes, and then proceeds to self vote. He then opens up today's day phase with a claim of killing "ejecting" Laarz. Based on the fact that the night kills apparently have flavors it seems easy to discern that mafia "incinerate" people. So Laarz must have been killed by something other than the standard mafia night kill. I'm following this so far.
After that point though, there is a lengthy discussion about the timing of how and when he got his box and opened it, which appears to have been solved after moderator confirmation. However I was under the same belief that both trading and opening a box in the same phase was not an allowed action based on Sath's "4 allowed actions" post, and I probably would have voted Numbers at that time. However since its been clarified that the set of actions that Numbers performed is allowed, I don't really see any fault in what Numbers has claimed to do. He traded/opened a box, used the power, result dead laarz. The consideration that he is lying to try and recover from last day phase is a possibility, however, based on the timing of his posts way way at the beginning of the phase. He would have had to piece together a claim based on the results of the night within such a short time span, that he would have had to have known what was going to happen before hand. This leads me to believe that his claim of killing laarz, and laarz being scum is likely. No one has come forward to counter claim his kill, and he would have had a whole 4 minutes to pull something out of his *** for his fallen teammate if he was scum. The only thing this doesn't clear him of is being a potential neutral with a kill ability.
Does anyone see a flaw with this logic? I'm sure you'll tell me if you do.
Alright, lets go back, end of last day phase, Numbers suggest a follow the leader attempt with Jcakes, and then proceeds to self vote. He then opens up today's day phase with a claim of killing "ejecting" Laarz. Based on the fact that the night kills apparently have flavors it seems easy to discern that mafia "incinerate" people. So Laarz must have been killed by something other than the standard mafia night kill. I'm following this so far.
After that point though, there is a lengthy discussion about the timing of how and when he got his box and opened it, which appears to have been solved after moderator confirmation. However I was under the same belief that both trading and opening a box in the same phase was not an allowed action based on Sath's "4 allowed actions" post, and I probably would have voted Numbers at that time. However since its been clarified that the set of actions that Numbers performed is allowed, I don't really see any fault in what Numbers has claimed to do. He traded/opened a box, used the power, result dead laarz. The consideration that he is lying to try and recover from last day phase is a possibility, however, based on the timing of his posts way way at the beginning of the phase. He would have had to piece together a claim based on the results of the night within such a short time span, that he would have had to have known what was going to happen before hand. This leads me to believe that his claim of killing laarz, and laarz being scum is likely. No one has come forward to counter claim his kill, and he would have had a whole 4 minutes to pull something out of his *** for his fallen teammate if he was scum. The only thing this doesn't clear him of is being a potential neutral with a kill ability.
Does anyone see a flaw with this logic? I'm sure you'll tell me if you do.
Um Wait. what? Sometimes I think you really overthink things Goryani ..... Why not just trade for a box that was on the shelf?
Couple of things.
1)When you decide to write "I guess my point is ....." delete everything above that sentence and just write your point.
2) The bolded sentence is very interesting to me. You think the mafia are driving the bus on Numbers? Who in particular?
He claims to have multiple vig shots, in the hands of the mafia that could be devastating. I know in your previous post you stated that you doubt mafia would get multiple shots because that would be swingy. I think the level 3 boxes are intended to be powerful (and thus swingy).
Also this. Drixx's argument is puzzling to me. If you think someone is scum you lynch them end of story. Same goes with neutrals to some extent.
1) That is a fairly good point and does make it likely that he (or a member of his team) shot Laarz
2) No just no. reread post 1 "All boxes provide the same 'rewards' to players regardless of alignement."
3) If he does indeed have two shots and we suspect him to be mafia that is a very good reason to shoot him.
4) I disagree, but I'll humour you Vote: Drixx
That seems a very strange thing to believe. There is no evidence to suggest that Laarz died killing CDM.
One Flaw.
If he was mafia and killed Laarz what is to stop him from claiming that Laarz was mafia?
To clarify:
1) I believe that Numbers has a Vig ability (number of shots I am unsure of)
2) I believe that Numbers shot Laarz with his vig ability.
With these two assumptions, it seems fairly obvious that numbers could be either
1) Mafia and killed town Laarz
2) town and killed mafia Laarz
3) Neutral and killed undefined Laarz
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