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Vessel of Hatred

Infernal Pit SpecialChest runs: high probability of Zod and other HRs

@DiabloTwoinDC – I have all my screenshots arranged by date. I got 34 HRs from both IP and PoA in 2018, all reported here. Another 9 HRs I got in Jan 2019, which included 4 matches (3 for IP, and 1 for PoA). This added up to 43 HRs to be precise. Until now, I’ve made a total of 9,700 runs in IP and 7,700 runs in PoA. Before Jan 2019 there were 8,000 runs and 6,000 runs for IP and PoA, respectively, and then all four matches came within a short amount of time. For 3 matching HRs in IP it was 21 known patterns, 23 known patterns, and 25 known patterns, accordingly. And for the only matching pair in PoA – I had 14 known patterns to that moment. I still presume that two Special Chests in IP and PoA have different patterns – that is why I give all my numbers separately. Hope, this will help you in estimating the total amount of drops.

If the assumption of 65,536 total drops is correct, than the estimated amount of total runes from these drops should equal 65,536*10.77% = 7,058. As I showed above, the probability of a dropped rune to be a Pul+ rune is around 2%. This means that the total expected amount of HRs from the IP (or PoA) SC is 141. 25 patterns out of 141 in 9,700 runs – this sounds reasonable for this concept.

I personally, however, still do not believe that all 65.5K drops are RANDOMLY chosen. I am sure; there is another factor that, unfortunately, I cannot rationalize at this time. I know IP is better than PoA, but I cannot prove it yet. And this will mean my theory of a preset parameter is not complete garbage.


@T72on1 – I will write down all the items for each HR drop when I get a chance. Unfortunately, I am so far from the html-programming that even organizing a table column could take me hours (like it was in this thread). I hope that there will be someone who could easily organize data in a proper friendly-looking manner, like N4rkoT1k has done for the LK thread. Again, I’ll write down all the items leaving only copy-paste to a professional. Meanwhile, we can collect the HR’ screenshots in this thread for future reference.


@Bobbo – without TP the best chance is to go on p1 through the crowd and then switching to p7 right before opening the SC. This will take a while, though.
 
(n.) = Normal Item

(l.q.) = Low Quality Item = Cracked Item = Crude Item = Damaged Item

(e./s.) = Etheral/Socketed Item

All other items could appear in either form: Magic/Rare/Set/Unique


PIT OF ACHERON HR PATTERNS

Pul_1_PoA: Legend Sword, Preserved Head, Throwing Axe, War Hammer

Pul_2_PoA: Crystal Sword (e./s.), Giant Sword (l.q.), Military Pick, Throwing Axe (n.)

Pul_3_PoA #1: Breast Plate, Falcate, Great Axe, Pellet Bow, War Gauntlets

Pul_3_PoA #2: Breast Plate, Breast Plate, Falcate, Great Axe, Pellet Bow, War Gauntlets

Pul_4_PoA: Demonhide Sash, Heraldic Shield, Mesh Armor, Small Charm


Um_1_PoA: Battle axe, Battle Dart, Mighty Scepter, Ring, Small Charm

Um_2_PoA: Barbed Shield, Grand Cham, Poignard, Ogre Axe, Ogre Maul, Serpentskin Armor, Monarch, Ward Bow

Um_3_PoA: Great Helm, Great Sword, Suwayyah


Mal_1_PoA: Ornate Plate, Razor Bow, Round Shield, Trellised Armor


Ist_1_PoA: Great Hauberk, Heater, Large Axe


Gul_1_PoA: Ceremonial Spear, Colossus Crossbow, Protector Shield, Ring, Ring, Stygian Pike, Thresher


Vex_1_PoA: Hurlbat

Vex_2_PoA: Breast Plate, Chain Boots, Maul (sup., e./s.), Unraveller Head (l.q.), War Hammer


Lo_1_PoA: Fuscina, Short Spear (l.q.)


Jah_1_PoA: Balrog Blade, Cedar Bow, Long Bow, Plated Belt



INFERNAL PIT HR PATTERNS

Pul_1_IP: Assault Helmet (n.), Gothic Plate, Morning Star

Pul_2_IP: Crossbow, Flamberge, Flamberge, Luna, Mask, Short Spear

Pul_3_IP #1: Bardiche (e./s.), Blade Talons, Crown, Falcion (n.), Giant Axe (l.q.), Mask (l.q.), War Javelin

Pul_3_IP #2: Bardiche (e./s.), Blade Talons, Crown, Falcion (n.), Giant Axe (l.q.), Mask (l.q.), War Javelin

Pul_4_IP: Cestus, Ring, Short Spear, Quhab


Um_1_IP: Amn Rune; Ancient Sword (n.), Hunter’s Guise, Legendary Sword (l.q.), Maul, Military Pick (e./s.), Spiked Club (l.q.)

Um_2_IP: Simbilan, War Fork, War Hummer (l.q.)


Mal_1_IP: Flying Axe (l.q.), Hatchet Hands (l.q.), Short War Bow, Plate Mail, Wyrmhide Boots (l.q.)

Mal_2_IP: Bramble Mitts, Destroyer Helm

Mal_3_IP: Balrog Skin, Demonhide Gloves, Grand Crown, Hellspawn Skull, Razor Bow


Ist_1_IP : Ancient Axe, Demonhide Gloves, Embossed Plate, Full Helm, Mace, Tiara, Tomahawk, Two-Handed Sword

Ist_2_IP : Balrog Blade, Barbed Club, Battle Staff, Broad Sword

Ist_3_IP: Tal Rune; Ancient Sword (l.q.), Balanced Axe (n.), Hunter’s Bow, Military Axe, Partizan (l.q.)

Ist_4_IP : Balanced Axe, Cestus, Chain Mail (l.q.), Full Helm, Great Hauberk (l.q.), Light Belt


Gul_1_IP #1: Axe, Blade Talons, Dirk, Breast Plate, Gauntlets, Gladius, Loricated Mail, Splint Mail, Two-Handed Sword

Gul_1_IP #2: Axe, Blade Talons, Dirk, Gauntlets, Gladius, Loricated Mail, Splint Mail, Two-Handed Sword

Gul_2_IP #1: Fascia, Gauntlets, Horned Helm, War Spear

Gul_2_IP #2: Fascia, Gauntlets, Horned Helm, War Spear

Gul_3_IP: Amulet, Amulet, Scythe, Spiked Club, War Axe, War Axe


Ohm_1_IP: Great Sword, Kite Shield, Poleaxe, Royal Shield

Ohm_2_IP: Breast Plate, Diamond Mail, Ghost Armor, Ghost Wand


Lo_1_IP : Thul Rune; Breast Plate, Broad Axe

Lo_2_IP : Fury Visor, Lance, Long Battle Bow, Maiden Javelin, Troll Nest

Lo_3_IP: Axe, Preserved Head (l.q.), Ring (by fredjoseph)


Sur_1_IP: Crown (l.q.), Francisca, War Fork (Short Battle Bow came from monsters – video checked)


Ber_1_IP: Tal Rune; Ancient Sword, Axe, Balanced Axe, Chain Mail, Kite Shield

Ber_2_IP: Field Plate, Scutum, Ogre Axe, Protector Shield, Ring, Small Crescent, Shadow Bow, Spider Bow (Shadow Bow should be added – video checked)


Cham_1_IP: Eth Rune; Chain Mail, Cloudy Sphere, Great Axe, Maul, Ring

Cham_2_IP: Battle Axe, Blade, Claws, Coronet, Giant Axe, Jewel, Kite Shield, Plated Belt, Poleaxe, Ring Mail (by fredjoseph)


Zod_1_IP: Bone Wand, Demonhide Sash, Dragon Shield, Heraldic Shield, Light Plated Boots, Partizan, Short Spear (Dragon Shield, Heraldic Shield, Light Plated Boots, and Partizan should be added – video checked)
 
A table would look way better! If you want an example to copy from (this is what I did) check the LK superchest thread or even the 1.07 superchest thread
 
Hi, a first timer here. I stumbled upon this thread and plagued by bad luck in LK, I decided to give the Infernal Pit chest a go. Registered to post my findings/feedback.

Did 800 runs before giving up; was planning on at least 1000, but the lack of returns discouraged me from going further. Then again, I've been in a dry spell recently when it comes to any kinds of drops, so it might be just me.

The only HR I found was Ohm on run 198 and unfortunately I screwed up the screenshot, though I had to clear a group of monsters around the chest, so it wouldn't have been definitive anyways. However, as far as patterns go, I remember clearly that there was a Luna and 4 other items that popped with it.
Other than that, I only got 2 Lems, a couple of skiller GCs and about 10 decent small charms.

A double or triple unique drop occurred 5 times. A notable one was a sweet "caster" drop - SoJ and Silkweaves. :)

However, the most interesting thing I observed was 3 TC87 items - a War Pike, Zakarum Shield and Sacred Armor all dropped from the chest! This is a level 83 area and all the items dropping from the chest are also ilvl 83; the 3 listed have a qlvl of 85. This isn't supposed to happen as far as I know and I wish I had thought of screenshotting them.
I can only explain it by the base items themselves being part of the superchest patterns we all know. If that's not the case and there's a chance that they could've been unique, that would mean Steel Pillar, Templar's Might and other TC87 uniques with a lower qlvl can all drop from this chest!

Short description of how I made the runs, as it worked pretty well - a level 96 blizballer, teleporting at 105FCR straight to the chest and killing nothing unless necessary (I barely get any experience from these monsters anyways). Hitting the 86FHR breakpoint and having about 2.5k life after Battle Orders was very important and saved me a handful of times; stacking a decent amount of MDR and some fire absorb (Vipermagi + Dwarf Star) helped a lot too, and I'd imagine Verdungo's wasn't a waste either. Still had to abort about 5 runs though.
 
NarfBG said:
Hi, a first timer here. I stumbled upon this thread and plagued by bad luck in LK, I decided to give the Infernal Pit chest a go. Registered to post my findings/feedback.

Did 800 runs before giving up; was planning on at least 1000, but the lack of returns discouraged me from going further. Then again, I've been in a dry spell recently when it comes to any kinds of drops, so it might be just me.

The only HR I found was Ohm on run 198 and unfortunately I screwed up the screenshot, though I had to clear a group of monsters around the chest, so it wouldn't have been definitive anyways. However, as far as patterns go, I remember clearly that there was a Luna and 4 other items that popped with it.
Other than that, I only got 2 Lems, a couple of skiller GCs and about 10 decent small charms.

A double or triple unique drop occurred 5 times. A notable one was a sweet "caster" drop - SoJ and Silkweaves. :)

However, the most interesting thing I observed was 3 TC87 items - a War Pike, Zakarum Shield and Sacred Armor all dropped from the chest! This is a level 83 area and all the items dropping from the chest are also ilvl 83; the 3 listed have a qlvl of 85. This isn't supposed to happen as far as I know and I wish I had thought of screenshotting them.
I can only explain it by the base items themselves being part of the superchest patterns we all know. If that's not the case and there's a chance that they could've been unique, that would mean Steel Pillar, Templar's Might and other TC87 uniques with a lower qlvl can all drop from this chest!

Short description of how I made the runs, as it worked pretty well - a level 96 blizballer, teleporting at 105FCR straight to the chest and killing nothing unless necessary (I barely get any experience from these monsters anyways). Hitting the 86FHR breakpoint and having about 2.5k life after Battle Orders was very important and saved me a handful of times; stacking a decent amount of MDR and some fire absorb (Vipermagi + Dwarf Star) helped a lot too, and I'd imagine Verdungo's wasn't a waste either. Still had to abort about 5 runs though.
Click to expand...
@Fruit can shed some light into this! I see he liked your post so maybe he will comment soon
 
@sir_cyclops
Putting me on the spot, man. :p

@NarfBG
As you've already found, chests in act 5 can drop from TC87. Unfortunately the highest area level for any sparklychest is 84 (Drifter Cavern), so the coolest uniques aren't able to drop from any sparklychest.

Here's a list of uniques that can not drop from sparklychests:
Code: 
Alma Negra
Andariel's Visage
Arachnid Mesh
Arioc's Needle
Arkaine's Valor
Azurewrath
Crown of Ages
Halaberd's Reign
Kira's Guardian
Mang Song's Lesson
Metalgrid
Rainbow Facet
Shadow Killer
Stormlash
The Cranium Basher
The Gladiator's Bane
The Grandfather
Tomb Reaver
Tyrael's Might
Wolfhowl


Also, there's (at least) one pattern that drops 6 uniques. :p

As for patterns: Like superchests, sparklychests have a limited seed (1-65534), but there's a bit more deviation in the patterns, as there are more factors involved: Superchests basically have (2*65534=) 131,068 patterns per effective player number (one set for locked and one for non-locked), though many locked and non-locked patterns are actually exactly the same, or otherwise almost exactly the same.

Sparklychests however have 4 different pattern "groups" per effective player number, so twice as many as superchests, and usually with bigger differences between groups. Which group the chest will drop from is determined by a random roll of 10,000, and then the result is evaluated like so:
Code: 
   0 -  199  (2%) uni  = CHEST_CASE 1
 200 -  599  (4%) set  = CHEST_CASE 2
 600 - 1199  (6%) rar  = CHEST_CASE 3
1200 - 3199 (20%) mag1 = CHEST_CASE 4
3200 - 6199 (30%) mag2 = CHEST_CASE 5
6200 - 9999 (38%) skip = CHEST_CASE 6

Cases 1, 2 and 3 share the same patterns, so there is a 12% chance for that pattern group, and since these cases share the same patterns, the only thing that changes is the quality of some of the items. Magic find can potentially affect the patterns, though I can't quite remember if that's true for all 6 cases. (And, strangely, locked or non-locked does not seem to affect sparklychest drops in any way.) Anyway; the reason these groups drop differently is simply because they execute different blocks of code, depending on the result of that random roll. In contrast, superchests will drop the same pattern regardless of picking magic or rare, and locked versus non-locked patterns are barely any different, if at all.

NarfBG said:
I remember clearly that there was a Luna and 4 other items that popped with it
Click to expand...
Perhaps this one? (More than 5 items including a Luna, but perhaps that the others were hidden by the junk?)
Code: 
---------------start_seed: 34702
Greater Healing Potion
Gold
Gold
Arrows
Gold
Short Battle Bow (Magic)
Gold
Gold
Scroll of Identify
Arrows
War Staff (Magic)
Ring (Magic)
Battle Axe (Magic)
Greater Healing Potion
Rondel (Magic)
Flawless Topaz
Arrows
Bolts
Hatchet Hands (Magic)
Super Healing Potion
Super Healing Potion
Gold
Ornate Plate (Magic)
Luna (Magic)
Ohm Rune
Battle Cestus (Magic)

vmiguli said:
The main conclusion is that we have a finite amount of patterns (presumably 2\16 = 65,536) for the Infernal Pit (or PoA) Special Chest.

...

Other mini-conclusions:

1. PoA and IP chests have different patterns (until proven otherwise). All my experience (around 8K runs in both areas) shows that IP SC is much more profitable than the PoA one.

2. Unque, set, rare, and magic qualities are decided by another mechanism after the pattern is chosen (analogously to LK magic/rare).

3. The quality of an item is preset in the pattern.

4. Etheral/socketed quality is preset in the pattern (one example – bardiche).
Click to expand...

Just to confirm, you were right that sparklychests have a limited seed like superchests; 1-65534.

1. I did not see anything that indicates that the sparklychests in PoA and IP are different from one another, or different from how any other sparklychest determines its drops.

2 and 3: The random roll of 10,000 that determines which block(s) of code to execute is done first, and is indeed not seeded by the chest, and therefore not really part of the pattern (and this roll indeed uses the same seed as superchests use for the roll for Magic/Rare). However, a lot of patterns will reach a point where the quality of (a) dropped item(s) will be determined by a random roll (in stead of being forced to a certain quality), and this random roll is seeded by the chest, and therefore is in fact part of the pattern. (Magic Find is a factor in this random roll, so you can say that your Magic Find is essentially a part of these patterns.) So you are basically correct on these points, except that the case (unique, set, rare, etc) is determined before the pattern is "chosen".

4. Socketed and Ethereal are not part of the pattern. I don't know what determines/seeds this part, but it definitely is not the chest.



That all said, from a glance it certainly does look like sparklychests have noticeably more high rune patterns, enough to say that they are simply more profitable than superchests. The problem of course is that there is no fancy place like Lower Kurast where you can find 3, or even 6 of these sparklychests right next to one another. For reference, if I compare the amount of high runes from the superchest in Glacial Trail to the average of the amount of high runes from the different cases of a sparklychest in act 5, you can expect about 1,5 times more high runes (counting Gul and up).



Anyway, hopefully I didn't make too big a mess of the explanations. I thought your research was very impressive @vmiguli and your conclusions pretty spot-on. I'll shoot you PM in case you had any interest in exact numbers or patterns.
 
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Thanks @Fruit, that's a lot of summed up info that wasn't even remotely hinted at in this thread yet.

Fruit said:
Perhaps this one? (More than 5 items including a Luna, but perhaps that the others were hidden by the junk?)
Code: 
---------------start_seed: 34702
Greater Healing Potion
Gold
Gold
Arrows
Gold
Short Battle Bow (Magic)
Gold
Gold
Scroll of Identify
Arrows
War Staff (Magic)
Ring (Magic)
Battle Axe (Magic)
Greater Healing Potion
Rondel (Magic)
Flawless Topaz
Arrows
Bolts
Hatchet Hands (Magic)
Super Healing Potion
Super Healing Potion
Gold
Ornate Plate (Magic)
Luna (Magic)
Ohm Rune
Battle Cestus (Magic)
Click to expand...

No, I meant exactly 5 blue items including the Luna. I still have the screwed up screenshot:

View attachment 14007

Aside from the rune itself, quivers of arrows and bolts, I can see a Ring, some kind of 2-handed axe, a body armor and maybe a staff? Maybe someone else is better at identifying stuff by looks.

Edit: Gold and potions are obviously cleared.
 
@Fruit amazing info! I’m sorry I implied that you’d do this work. At a glance, I thought this was a thread about the RoF super chests, which you’ve already worked out. Aka I thought it would be just a quick posting of the possible patterns. Sorry :/
 
Fruit, thank you so much for you invaluable contribution to this subject!
And thanks for your appreciation of my input to this matter, I am glad that something I've done might be of help for others!
Right now I am overwhelmed with the information that you have posted both here and to me personally. I need some time to process it and come out with appropriate conclusions/suggestions/questions.
Meanwhile, would you consider posting here the table with the HR's counts for all 6 cases that you have shared with me already? I personally do not think that this would be unethical in any way to anybody since we are talking about research in it's pure form with no involvement of any materialistic interest. Besides, without this info it is impossible to establish the total probability of a HR appearance for these chests and, thus, finally answer the question raised: are Act V SpecialChests the best place in game to see the TOP HRs?
Hope you agree with this, that table is amazing!
 
pharphis said:
just to be clear you're saying the sparkly chests would give 1.5x more HRs?
Click to expand...
Well in this case I specifically compared an act 5 superchest to an act 5 sparklychest, and it roughtly comes down to 1.5x as many (counting the total from Gul and up). I haven't compared all acts/areas, so it may not be ~1.5x in every case, but I do suspect it will always be around that number.

Edit: The reason is simple; sparklychests just tend to drop more items. For reference; if I print all 65534 patterns in full, superchest text files with P7 patterns usually end up around 10-13MB, while sparklychest text files tend to exceed 20MB.
sir_cyclops said:
Sorry :/
Click to expand...
All good, 'was just kidding. :D
vmiguli said:
Meanwhile, would you consider posting here the table with the HR's counts for all 6 cases that you have shared with me already?
Click to expand...
I've been considering that there are forumites who may prefer the lists made by players as players, and I wonder if I'm already posting too much. Maybe I'm making too big a deal out of it though, but I'm just trying to be considerate. I thought about making a dedicated thread for it so that I can safely spoiler things up, but I couldn't really think of a good way to present all the data.
vmiguli said:
are Act V SpecialChests the best place in game to see the TOP HRs?
Click to expand...
Well if you mean sparklychests specifically; I'd say that a sparklychest beats a superchest convincingly, but as I said before, Lower Kurast has 3 (or even 6) superchests, and a single sparklychest just isn't going to beat that. Though I suppose it may depend on what you're after; higher acts have access to higher runes after all. But then again, maybe for the highest runes you'd be better off killing monsters in stead of looting chests? We'd need the local mathematicians and professional Pit runners for these kinds of questions, I think. :p
 
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Fruit said:
I've been considering that there are forumites who may prefer the lists made by players as players, and I wonder if I'm already posting too much. Maybe I'm making too big a deal out of it though, but I'm just trying to be considerate. I thought about making a dedicated thread for it so that I can safely spoiler things up, but I couldn't really think of a good way to present all the data.
Click to expand...

I remember we had the same discussion a year or two ago, when someone came in, altered the game so he could easily gather all patterns (I think it was for RoF superchest patterns, by simulating it through LK runs with a very high amount of superchests) and put them all out here on the forums. Some people were in favor of it, some people against. I was one of the latter. The reason for me was that, at that time, there still was quite some interest in those RoF chests, and people were actively running them. Agreed, we weren't with nearly enough people to even get close to finding all patterns. But to me that didn't matter: we were trying to find some, and by posting them all just like that, that person was taking away from the experience some very dedicated people had by looking for the patterns.

To me, this one seems different. RoF runs have cooled down again (that I know off) and this thread, while very interesting, never really sparked people's interest to do some dedicated running. I for example did some with a 200% fcr Barb, but not more than 200 or so before losing interest.

Long story short: I think it would be ok to post your findings here. Maybe it's the other way around that way, and the results might spark some interest in actually reproducing the results in game.

That's only my personal opinion though. I'd definitely check back with the mods before doing so.
 
We have drop chance calculators (tools that reads TC files).
We have attack speed, cast rate, FHR tables.

And so on.

Those are stats we take for granted, and none of those have been found by players experimenting and reporting in their results - instead they are found by reading and interpreting the game code.

From a fundamental point of view, I see no reason why anyone should be upset by someone (Fruit) publishing various results of chest analyses.

I mean, should we abandon drop calculators and try to team up for an effort in empirically deducing the drop chance of Tyrael's Might? (which will have huge error bars btw)
 
Fruit had already asked my opinion on posting this data a few weeks back:

Hi Fruit,
I have been following the posts, but not in huge detail.

First the Moderator position:
The official stance is that it is not against any rules for you to post the data, this isn't really that different to what jjscud did in the past. Please don't post details of how you did it, the program code or anything else though. Obviously make clear all drops were binned & it was only for scientific purposes.
[/moderator]

The question should you is my opinion as a long time forum member, not moderator.

When the comments were made in 1.13 thread, we had a much more active forum. We could have half the members hitting chests and it was kind of fun to discover them.
These days you will probably get about 10-15 people interested in hitting the chests, of which about 5 will make a serious effort. It may take years to uncover anything.

Decision is up to you ultimately. If you want to seek opinion in a thread it will be about 30% no don't, 30% yes dy, 40% whatever. I think I can probably name the people who will go for which option too :)

Maybe you could put it in a new thread with "Possible Spoilers" in the title, then we just keep the discussion there.

Hope that helps, but I suspect it may not :p

max.
Click to expand...
 
Thanks a lot for your input guys, appreciated! I suppose I was just making too big a thing of it. :>

T72on1 said:
we were trying to find some, and by posting them all just like that, that person was taking away from the experience some very dedicated people had by looking for the patterns.
Click to expand...
This was the main reason I've been hesitant. I joined the forums very late and had no hand in building it, so out of respect for those gathering/compling all the data, making all the great guides, etc, I just wasn't sure it would be cool to post program-generated numbers.


But alright, to give a reference on numbers, this is what I had sent @vmiguli the other day:

Act 5 superchest on P7:
Code: 
       NON-LOCKED:
      Total count:   33

Patterns with Zod:    1
             Cham:    1
              Jah:    1
              Ber:    5
              Sur:    4
               Lo:    3
              Ohm:    4
              Vex:    8
              Gul:    6

           LOCKED:
      Total count:   36

Patterns with Zod:    1
             Cham:    1
              Jah:    1
              Ber:    6
              Sur:    4
               Lo:    3
              Ohm:    6
              Vex:    8
              Gul:    6

Act 5 sparklychest:
Code: 
CASE 1, 2 or 3 (12%) on /players 7 or 8 with 0 Magic Find

Total count: 45
  Zod count:  1
 Cham count:  1
  Jah count:  4
  Ber count:  6
  Sur count:  4
   Lo count:  4
  Ohm count:  4
  Vex count: 10
  Gul count: 11


CASE 4 (20%) on /players 7 or 8 with 0 Magic Find

Total count: 68
  Zod count:  1
 Cham count:  3
  Jah count:  7
  Ber count:  6
  Sur count:  8
   Lo count:  7
  Ohm count: 10
  Vex count: 13
  Gul count: 13

CASE 5 (30%) on /players 7 or 8 with 0 Magic Find

Total count: 54
  Zod count:  1
 Cham count:  2
  Jah count:  7
  Ber count:  6
  Sur count:  7
   Lo count:  6
  Ohm count:  9
  Vex count:  9
  Gul count:  7

CASE 6 (38%) on /players 7 or 8 with 0 Magic Find

Total count: 48
  Zod count:  1
 Cham count:  1
  Jah count:  6
  Ber count:  6
  Sur count:  5
   Lo count:  5
  Ohm count: 10
  Vex count:  6
  Gul count:  8


Note that the numbers of high rune patterns for the sparklychest are quite different depending on the rolled case. Since my skill in math is pretty much 0, I don't quite know how to accurately compare the superchest data to that of the sparklychest (because the chance to be locked and the chance of which sparklycase should affect the numbers). The chance for a superchest to be locked in act 5 is between 20% and 25%, depending on the area. I estimated it at "about 1.5x as many", but that's just my newbie estimate.

Anyway, regardless of precise numbers, that table is why I said that the sparklychest beats the superchest convincingly. Even though there's only a 20% chance for case 4 to be picked, it has a pretty excessive 68 high rune patterns. But as you can see, every sparklychest case has quite a few more high rune patterns than the superchest has. And I suspect that once you start adding even more runes (below Gul), this multiplier would go up even further.



Well.. fingers crossed there are no bugs in the program, as that would make me look very silly right now. :p I have verified well over 2 dozens of patterns in-game to make sure they were all 100% matches with the program's output, so I'm convinced it's all OK at this point.
 
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@Fruit nice work as always

Can you, for completeness, give number of total patterns (spark & super-chest)?

When I have this information, I am happy to make similar CL / accumulated probability graphs and tables as I did for the LK-Trav-Cow guide.

Just for my own understanding, the various cases you gave - the only variable there is the ratio of locked vs nonlocked?
 
I read this thread yesterday and thought: "Oh, what a cool place to farm for high runes". I've found every rune except the both notorious and awestriking Zod rune, but it would be very pleasant to do so. I started running it with my H-din and just a few minutes ago I found this one. Not a Zod, but still. I've got another Sur in the stash, which means I can cube up to a Ber and make my first CoH on SP. That'll make my Earth Shifter-wielding Armageddon/Fury Druid happy. (I made an Earth Shifter Druid after having read an inspiring guide on the subject on this forum.)

View attachment 14066
 
Aw man, I'm confused by both questions. :p

drmalawi said:
Can you, for completeness, give number of total patterns (spark & super-chest)?
Click to expand...
I kinda doubt I understand this right but, there are 65534 patterns for any scenario (let's say a "set"). For superchests that is 2 sets; one for locked, one for non-locked. For sparklychests there are 4 sets (since 3 of the 6 cases share the same patterns, and locked or non-locked has no influence at all as far as I could see).

So if that is what you meant, there are 131,068 patterns for superchests and 262,136 for sparklychests.

drmalawi said:
Just for my own understanding, the various cases you gave - the only variable there is the ratio of locked vs nonlocked?
Click to expand...
For superchests, the only variable is locked or non-locked. For sparklychests, it is the random roll of 10,000 that determines which set of patterns it lands on, which comes down to 12% for set1, 20% for set2, 30% for set3 and 38% for set4.


Sorry if I misunderstood. :>
 
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