@DiabloTwoinDC – I have all my screenshots arranged by date. I got 34 HRs from both IP and PoA in 2018, all reported here. Another 9 HRs I got in Jan 2019, which included 4 matches (3 for IP, and 1 for PoA). This added up to 43 HRs to be precise. Until now, I’ve made a total of 9,700 runs in IP and 7,700 runs in PoA. Before Jan 2019 there were 8,000 runs and 6,000 runs for IP and PoA, respectively, and then all four matches came within a short amount of time. For 3 matching HRs in IP it was 21 known patterns, 23 known patterns, and 25 known patterns, accordingly. And for the only matching pair in PoA – I had 14 known patterns to that moment. I still presume that two Special Chests in IP and PoA have different patterns – that is why I give all my numbers separately. Hope, this will help you in estimating the total amount of drops.
If the assumption of 65,536 total drops is correct, than the estimated amount of total runes from these drops should equal 65,536*10.77% = 7,058. As I showed above, the probability of a dropped rune to be a Pul+ rune is around 2%. This means that the total expected amount of HRs from the IP (or PoA) SC is 141. 25 patterns out of 141 in 9,700 runs – this sounds reasonable for this concept.
I personally, however, still do not believe that all 65.5K drops are RANDOMLY chosen. I am sure; there is another factor that, unfortunately, I cannot rationalize at this time. I know IP is better than PoA, but I cannot prove it yet. And this will mean my theory of a preset parameter is not complete garbage.
@T72on1 – I will write down all the items for each HR drop when I get a chance. Unfortunately, I am so far from the html-programming that even organizing a table column could take me hours (like it was in this thread). I hope that there will be someone who could easily organize data in a proper friendly-looking manner, like N4rkoT1k has done for the LK thread. Again, I’ll write down all the items leaving only copy-paste to a professional. Meanwhile, we can collect the HR’ screenshots in this thread for future reference.
@Bobbo – without TP the best chance is to go on p1 through the crowd and then switching to p7 right before opening the SC. This will take a while, though.
If the assumption of 65,536 total drops is correct, than the estimated amount of total runes from these drops should equal 65,536*10.77% = 7,058. As I showed above, the probability of a dropped rune to be a Pul+ rune is around 2%. This means that the total expected amount of HRs from the IP (or PoA) SC is 141. 25 patterns out of 141 in 9,700 runs – this sounds reasonable for this concept.
I personally, however, still do not believe that all 65.5K drops are RANDOMLY chosen. I am sure; there is another factor that, unfortunately, I cannot rationalize at this time. I know IP is better than PoA, but I cannot prove it yet. And this will mean my theory of a preset parameter is not complete garbage.
@T72on1 – I will write down all the items for each HR drop when I get a chance. Unfortunately, I am so far from the html-programming that even organizing a table column could take me hours (like it was in this thread). I hope that there will be someone who could easily organize data in a proper friendly-looking manner, like N4rkoT1k has done for the LK thread. Again, I’ll write down all the items leaving only copy-paste to a professional. Meanwhile, we can collect the HR’ screenshots in this thread for future reference.
@Bobbo – without TP the best chance is to go on p1 through the crowd and then switching to p7 right before opening the SC. This will take a while, though.