Ok, I'm back.
To those who pose concern about the word "tonight" I agree, I am removing that from my train of thought. I am glad Sath cleared that up for me. Even if I remove that argument from my
previous post I am still satisfied that it holds up well
with the assumption that mafia do not get abilities. Some have expressed concern over that, citing the Harry situation. So, lets look at this a little closer:
The only assumption that seems to have good traction is that there is one mafia per group. This is an assumption and not proven of course, but it's what we have. So, assuming that mafia
do get abilities, how are the powers dished out? As I mentioned previously, they can either have the powers in addition to the players or instead of the players.
I don't think any of the story so far has supported the notion of mafia having powers right along with townies. If they do, then they're not using them. The only time I think we would get verification on such an arrangement is if all of one group is dead except one and that one happens to be mafia, then he could claim town and people would likely believe it. This doesn't seem likely at all, so I'll defer analysis of this scenario until either it seems like it has happened might happen or if people disagree with my dismissal of the notion.
So, in that case, we can assume that mafia get powers at the exclusion of everybody else in the group. For the Norman group specifically: we have three scenarios that seem plausible.
1. Zokar - scum, CG - town, Solar -town
2. Zokar - town, CG - scum, Solar - town
3. Zokar - town, CG - town, Solar - scum
We know that Solar so far is the only one to
claim a role. He said that he watched CG, but of course nobody can confirm that.
So, case one: Since Solar is town, he is probably being truthful about who he investigated. All this says is that CG did nothing last night. Of course, he could have actually investigated Zokar who did nothing last night but lied about who he targeted. I doubt that is the case though. So if he's town, he investigated CG, it ends up telling us... absolutely nothing. Just because he didn't get results back that night doesn't mean CG wasn't actually scum, and since anybody can have powers at this point, it doesn't say anything about Zokar or Solar....
So, case two: If Solar is town, and he is being honest about who he investigated, then all it says is that CG did nothing that night. Doesn't conclude anything for anybody again... so again, we have absolutely nothing.
So, case three: Solar is scum, he investigates either CG or Zokar, doesn't actually matter because he knows neither of us will be involved in anything, so it's a toss up. Again, we gain absolutely nothing...
Ok, so I am willing to admit that my assertion that CG is scum hinges upon the assumption that scum get no powers. From a strictly logical point of view, I can not decisively conclude that he is scum without the assumption.
At this point, I have to ask myself about the Harry situation. We have all the people in that group claiming a role. thefranklin does not actually post the role PM, but since there was no role claim overlap, it's likely that everybody really got a role PM and that mafia get the same roles as townie. Of course, there are other possible conclusions to draw here, but they end up being complicated, convoluted and exceptionally risky...
So, do I still want to vote for CG?
Well, his reaction to my original statement of not getting a PM still irks me quite a bit. Why would he be upset about divulging information that he very well knows himself will be coming out that same day. It happened with every single other group so it's concerning that he was so set against my statement about something he knew was going to happen. Just does not sit well with me. His aggressive post and the way he behaved subsequently really made me question him. My gut says he's scum.
However, there is the possibility that Solar is scum. He did jump aboard rather fast at my post and vote. He could be trying to start a train against a strong townie so they can get rid of him and another high value target in the same day/night transition. Possible, I do have to admit that. Given what I reviewed of Solar's posting history, my gut doesn't feel *as bad* about him compared to CG.
So, yes I still want to vote for CG. I am not satisfied by anything he has said to convince me otherwise. That being said, I do still have very strong negative feelings for Mal as I have pretty much all along. Personally, I'd rather remove CG and deal with Mal later. I would hate to do it, but if the rest of the town would prefer Mal today... I can get behind that vote as well, but only if my vote is needed, otherwise I'm sticking with my current vote for CG.