City Mafia Game Thread

[RlyehExiled]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

As said before we're in MyLo not Lylo, and as said before Pyro would most likley be the one to die at night.

I'm leaning towards Gwahir over Valharous but honestly don't know anymore. The 1/2 shot (from my prospective) isn't the greatest way to go about things.

I think if we can't come to a concrete descission in 48 hours to vote no lynch, yeah it won't change the quo very much, but it gives us another 48 hours to fight it out. (Although majority of 2 means a misplaced vote = game over).

I'll peer in intermitidly and check up on things.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Yeah, I went back through most of the posts throughout the game and still haven't come up with anything truely definative...Why don't you guys fight it out, convince me why I shouldn't vote for any of you, other then the "yeah I'm definately not it" defense. What makes any of you more believable then the rest. Right now I see it this way, I have three people in front of me, they all had middle of the road bids, each of them having flaws in their arguements. RE with a weak role choice (don't see why you wouldn't have gone for the bomb instead of party host) and weak support, Gwaihir with "inside" information which could be from night kill reveals hes received himself or through the actual coroner ability, and Val who seems the least likely right now but at this point anything is possible, his early role reveal could have been a daring chance he took in early game.

 

[Valhauros]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

RlyehExiled's "As said before we're in MyLo not Lylo":
There are four of us alive. If we lynch a townie today, another will day at night. The next day phase would be the Serial Killer versus a townie, which is an obvious conclusion. If we take the no lynch today plan, we would have another day, though.

Pyro's "Convince me why I shouldn't vote for any of you":
I don't really have anything left to say. I not only claim early, but also inadvertently; it was never my intention to reveal my role at that point. I could try pointing out reasons why we should lynch Gwaihir or Rlyeh. But I agree that waiting until tomorrow and doing nothing today is the safest course.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Well, say we wait until tomorrow, I'm really the only fully confirmed one here, followed by you (in my own opinion) so whats most likely going to happen if we don't lynch someone today. I think were just avoiding the inevitable, if it really takes that much time to decide then sure its the safe course but if were not going to get any more certain then we are at the end of today then I'm not sure what it accomplishes.

 

[RlyehExiled]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

@Val: Yeah I know. MyLo = Mislynch and lose where LyLo is Lynch or Lose, the difference is in MyLo you can take a nolynch day...but now we're reiterating it.

@Pyro: If I was the SK would I of offered sincierly to be the bomb blast? Would I also of taken a chance of adding to the vote train on unconfirmed "Who the last vote is". The SK seems only NK proof not DK proof (according to page 1 anyway). I didn't take bomb because I thought it would of been picked high up, in fact I was sure picks 1-3 would of got it, or a high pick mafia took it. (Mafia Bombs = insane) so I was 98% sure that was already taken, and PH seemed like a weaker version of it.

Also if I was going to lie about my role, I'm sure I would of made a better defence than party host.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

I had to go wayyy back for this, but I was trying to recall things from previous days with anything regarding the SK and I remembered after we had only one night kill that there was a string of posts relating to it...

I do find Bad Ash and Sath being so sure there exists a SK somewhat disconcerting, but it seems suspicious to me that overnight your attitude on how to play would change so drastically, and for that:

Vote: Asrrin

Although Sath right now is my second choice based off of this "midwestern voting block" With Gambors reply he could change his it seems more likely that they are just flavor.

Yes, I obviously believe that the most obvious reason we only had one kill was we have no mafia. But in seriousness, again with the last post, you seem 100% convinced there is a SK and that we avioded his kill, when an an alternate and at the moment more likely story to me is there is not one.

You keep focusing on the cities. Did you pick the alternate win condition?

Doesn't actually state that mafia have a kill power. Possible that they don't, but I would be very suprised by this. As for the SK, I think it was Gory who mentioned that he asked CG if the SK would need to kill every night, and CG replied yes. I think he is likely telling the truth about this.

Found these relating to Gwaihir on the SK, obviously opinions can change over the course of the game but it is odd that he thought the most likely possibility was that there was no SK and he found it disconcerting that two people were certain there was...

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Found this one related to RE's thoughts...

@Kegs' death: I think the theory that he's high pick but not too high to play safe with a non-valuble role is a good one, ethier that or a total pull the name out of the hat job.

@One kill: First thought was "We have no Sk, yay"... second thought was it got stopped, which I think is more likley, with no kill flavor we can't really tell if the one kill was mafia or a different source anyway, so I'm going to assume mafia.

So far my reads are still non-existant today (that could also have something to do with the fact I'm so tired :/), the only thing that jumped out was this.

(Ank post 171)

Iunno why but the highlighted sentance seems to be to say "but they are wrong", ethier very subtle or I'm reading too much into it.

(Gory post 186)

It has flaws in a device to pinpoint the SK (or who isn't the SK), but to determine if one exists or not, I agree with it, town outs a VT, town learns information, power roles stay unouted.

He seemed interested in trying to narrow down who the SK is but did think that the kill being stopped was more likely then there not being one...just some things to think about for a while.

 

[Valhauros]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Pyro, I just read your couple of posts, so straight out: What do you want to do? Do we lynch today or do we wait? I had a huge post with quotes, and links and theories, but lost it due to a Firefox crash. Anyway, I'll write a super short, resumed, version of it... If we are going the voting road, I say we go for Gwaihir, here's why:

- Gwaihir never offered taking the bomb blast, Rlyeh did.
- Gwaihir's results are easy to forge due to lack of info.
- Gwaihir was Coju's last vote, knowing he was a goner.
- And most importantly of all:

If Rlyeh were the SK, he would not have claimed Party Host. The only reason a serial killer might claim a role that grants a list of his visitors after his demise should be to refrain Mafia from targeting him at night. Considering the SK is bulletproof, and the fact that at the time of the mass claim there were plenty of unused roles to pick from, being the Party Host considerably clears Rlyeh.

Also, if my aforementioned theory is right, it would explain why Rlyeh was not killed before... if the SK had targeted him, then we would know who to lynch the next day, due to the posted list.

 

[Gwaihir]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

convince me why I shouldn't vote for any of you, other then the "yeah I'm definately not it" defense. What makes any of you more believable then the rest.

I have done 2 specific things that would be odd for a SK. First I went after what I thought was a slip up by you on day one. As an SK, that would not be something to do - draw a ton of attention to myself when all of the information roles could still be out there? I would be much more likely to be investigated. The second is I refused to claim until last - which would draw a ton of attention to myself. Much easier and safer for a SK to make a non-dangerous claim earlier in the day.

As for Val - Claimed VT before night kills happened or before a full day of votes as pick number 7 - that is a super gutsy claim for a SK, I believe he is telling the truth, if not well done, you deserve to win as a SK.

Found these relating to Gwaihir on the SK, obviously opinions can change over the course of the game but it is odd that he thought the most likely possibility was that there was no SK and he found it disconcerting that two people were certain there was...

This is true. I found it very odd that we had one night kill and people assumed that this was because of a missed kill and not because we had no SK, especially after gory said the SK had to kill every night. The next night it became very unlikely that we lacked a SK, and so I was very suspicious about BA and Sath, even voted BA at some point. Turns out I was wrong on both.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Lynch today or not is up to general concensus, I don't care either way, but then you have to expect that tomorrow will be you, Gwaihir and RE so the result of the game rests in your guys decisions. This shouldn't stop us from trying to find out who it really is though so we should continue with discussion, if we can't reach a conclusion by days end then we don't lynch and the remaining make the ultimate decision the next day phase.

Response to points in order:
- Gwaihir did only offer to take the blast, but only after he slipped with who he investigated, which makes it suspicious. However if RE refused to take the blast yesterday (or at least try) he would have been marked at the start of day.
- As said before night kill results could be fact but they could be fact from him receiving them personally through kills. We knew there had to be a jailkeeper/roleblocker, the only one that peaks my interest in his favor is the investigation of laarz and finding role thief, but that could be found from basic understanding of game rules (person stolen from becomes rolethief) his other finds were vanilla (very convienent)
- Coju was trying to make us suspect those who are not suspected (which includes you, but I can't really get anything solid on you so...So help me if you turn up the SK at the end of this :crazyeyes

The choice of party host is still odd to me, RE's explanation makes sense in that it was more likely to get it then he would to get the bomb. There were better targets for the SK though regarding confirmed townies, the less confirmed ones there are, the less likely they will be picked out. You make a convincing arguement though.

 

[Gwaihir]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Lets here some thoughts on the matter, why was FoE picked over me for a night kill, maybe he was onto something yesterday that the SK didn't like? I'm going to go back through yesterday and see what I can find...

This is very WIFOM, but FoE could have been picked because he seemed to be less suspicious of me and more suspicious of RE even after I made a mistake on targets, whereas I don't remember you saying your preference for me or RE.

 

[Valhauros]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Rlyeh, what do you want to do?

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

I have done 2 specific things that would be odd for a SK. First I went after what I thought was a slip up by you on day one. As an SK, that would not be something to do - draw a ton of attention to myself when all of the information roles could still be out there? I would be much more likely to be investigated. The second is I refused to claim until last - which would draw a ton of attention to myself. Much easier and safer for a SK to make a non-dangerous claim earlier in the day.

The first part, going after a slip up on day 1 is expected and should be persued to the full extent and would most likely be considered scum hunting by most of the town (even though you did grill me pretty hard that day). Although it would draw attention it wouldn't draw investigative roles, it would most likely though draw the attention of the mafia as they would want to get rid of any "threats". Refusing to claim last is also very safe as there is zero possibility of claiming a role that was already taken by any of the remaining alive.

As for Val - Claimed VT before night kills happened or before a full day of votes as pick number 7 - that is a super gutsy claim for a SK, I believe he is telling the truth, if not well done, you deserve to win as a SK.

If he ends up being the SK I will be soooo pissed, haha.

This is true. I found it very odd that we had one night kill and people assumed that this was because of a missed kill and not because we had no SK, especially after gory said the SK had to kill every night. The next night it became very unlikely that we lacked a SK, and so I was very suspicious about BA and Sath, even voted BA at some point. Turns out I was wrong on both.

Playing into the scum hunting thing on Day 1, it is very possible that the mafia actually targeted you night 1 which would explain why we only had 1 night kill (being bulletproof), and it would play into them seeing you as a threat at the time.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

This is very WIFOM, but FoE could have been picked because he seemed to be less suspicious of me and more suspicious of RE even after I made a mistake on targets, whereas I don't remember you saying your preference for me or RE.

Lets go with more WIFOM, maybe you (if you were the SK), would know that killing someone that was putting the heat on someone else would draw more attention to them rather then you.

 

[Gwaihir]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

If Rlyeh were the SK, he would not have claimed Party Host. The only reason a serial killer might claim a role that grants a list of his visitors after his demise should be to refrain Mafia from targeting him at night. Considering the SK is bulletproof, and the fact that at the time of the mass claim there were plenty of unused roles to pick from, being the Party Host considerably clears Rlyeh.

Party host claim is great for a SK - it explains exactly why they will not be the target of a NK for the rest of the game, so even lasting to the final day means he has to answer no questions about it. Second in usefulness as a fake SK claim only to a bomb, really, and that was already taken.

Response to points in order:
- Gwaihir did only offer to take the blast, but only after he slipped with who he investigated, which makes it suspicious. However if RE refused to take the blast yesterday (or at least try) he would have been marked at the start of day.
- As said before night kill results could be fact but they could be fact from him receiving them personally through kills. We knew there had to be a jailkeeper/roleblocker, the only one that peaks my interest in his favor is the investigation of laarz and finding role thief, but that could be found from basic understanding of game rules (person stolen from becomes rolethief) his other finds were vanilla (very convienent)
- Coju was trying to make us suspect those who are not suspected (which includes you, but I can't really get anything solid on you so...So help me if you turn up the SK at the end of this :crazyeyes

The choice of party host is still odd to me, RE's explanation makes sense in that it was more likely to get it then he would to get the bomb. There were better targets for the SK though regarding confirmed townies, the less confirmed ones there are, the less likely they will be picked out. You make a convincing arguement though.

-People seemed to believe my claim in general - FOE, Val, BA, you. If I am town and most people think I am town, why offer to take a bomb blow? It is better used on people that are suspicious. After I messed up, I realized that it could become the focus of everything, and so I figured if that was likely to happen, it may be best for me to take the hit. I still really didn't want to take it on the off chance zemaj actually had some useful info, but if people I trusted asked for it I would have done it, but noone that I trusted said that they thought I should be the one to do it.

-What I would give right now for a ghost to pop up so they could actually give their claims. If I was an SK I would have to be making at least one of them up as Sath and zemaj died the same day. Not that a vanilla claim is that hard to make up, but just pointing it out.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

I don't want to make Gwaihir feel like your being left out so lets go through some things here...

@Pyro: If I was the SK would I of offered sincierly to be the bomb blast? Would I also of taken a chance of adding to the vote train on unconfirmed "Who the last vote is". The SK seems only NK proof not DK proof (according to page 1 anyway). I didn't take bomb because I thought it would of been picked high up, in fact I was sure picks 1-3 would of got it, or a high pick mafia took it. (Mafia Bombs = insane) so I was 98% sure that was already taken, and PH seemed like a weaker version of it.

Also if I was going to lie about my role, I'm sure I would of made a better defence than party host.

Since you were a high suspect, if you didn't offer to take the bomb blast as I mentioned before you probably would have been first on the list no question, it was a risk you had to take in order to win. Say you were the SK, what would be a better defence then party host? Its a role that was unlikely to be chosen and prevented you from being the last to claim.

 

[Gwaihir]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

The first part, going after a slip up on day 1 is expected and should be persued to the full extent and would most likely be considered scum hunting by most of the town (even though you did grill me pretty hard that day). Although it would draw attention it wouldn't draw investigative roles, it would most likely though draw the attention of the mafia as they would want to get rid of any "threats". Refusing to claim last is also very safe as there is zero possibility of claiming a role that was already taken by any of the remaining alive.

I see both of your points, but if I was the primary drive behind a townie lynch, I would think that might draw an investigation from someone. And while claiming last is safe, it is also quite suspicious, and harder to explain. If I was the SK, I would think I would want to get as little suspicion as possible and claim earlier with an easy role claim, especially when town had been so effective at killing mafia already. The SK would want to balance the two out, not get rid of all the mafia as fast as possible.

Playing into the scum hunting thing on Day 1, it is very possible that the mafia actually targeted you night 1 which would explain why we only had 1 night kill (being bulletproof), and it would play into them seeing you as a threat at the time.

True, a SK target is one possibility, others would be jailkeep a killer, target the hider, and kill overlap. As for killing me because I was scumhunting, it would make sense if you were scum, but it turns out you are not. They would not want to kill someone who was scumhunting in the wrong direction - my top suspects were you and coju, both of whom are town. I would think mafia would keep me alive so I would keep the pressure on someone besides them.

Your other post I didn't quote: yup, WIFOM, but at least mine is the simpler explanation? Thats all I have on that one.

 

[RlyehExiled]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

Rlyeh, what do you want to do?

I think we should end it today IF and only if there is a general happy consenous, if not then no lynch into the all or nothing day.

I also think we should use FoS's as quazi votes then when everyones happy lay real votes down, that way we don't accidently get the wrong person quick hammered.

Party host claim is great for a SK - it explains exactly why they will not be the target of a NK for the rest of the game, so even lasting to the final day means he has to answer no questions about it. Second in usefulness as a fake SK claim only to a bomb, really, and that was already taken.

But when I claimed I was in no danger of being Nk'd I was in danger of being lynched, so if I was to lie, surely it would be a lie to avoid the gallows not the gun at that point.

I think Gwahir is the most likley suspect still, his claim info other than "Role thief" which I've pointed out could be gotten from reading the thread, is mostly vanilla:

CG: no info
kegs: town vanilla
Sathoris: town Jailkeeper
Laarz: Mafia Role theif
Zemaj: Town Vanillia

He was also last to claim, so the "JK" role he pegged to Sath could easily of been doctor or roleblocker if someone else claimed JK first, also including JK in the list can go for discepencies with the missed kills night 1. But so can the bus driver, I don't beleive flubbs targets were true since he flipped mafia, I'm guessing a mafia driver was bouncing stuff off himself or scum buddies onto random guys.

Then there's his slip, which doesn't help him at all.

Also he claims Kegs was vanillia when Kegs had 4th pick, all that was above him was stumpy, hider (I believe that was pyros original role), and special win condition. I don't think Kegs would of gone for any of them they don't seem in his style.

Just some thoughts. If I had to vote today I'd vote Gwahir over Valharous, and unless something amazing happens I would do the same tomorrow.

 

[Valhauros]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

My FoS would be hands down on Gwaihir. It seems everyone agrees on holding the vote, and I think there is nothing left to discuss besides crazy counter theories, so I guess I'll call it a night and go to bed early (it's 22:25) here.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: City Mafia Game Thread

I have a feeling this would be the same situation tomorrow...this is what it looks like coming down to for me.

RE votes for Gwaihir
Gwaihir votes for RE
Val - Final decision