Breaking Bad Forum Mafia Game

[ThomasJohnsen]

My previous post wasn't thought through!
Pyro has 4 votes (by all indications).


Let's assume JCakes speaks the truth; what are the implications:
* Pyro is a sociopath likely to have some kind of NK action that he may or may not have used up (only 1 NK night 2)
* Lynching him could leave us vulnerable to a random kill.
* Lynching him will certainly leave the scum with a higher influence over town.


If we have a safe (or even semi-safe) read on someone as scum, it will be a much safer lynch than Pyro imo.
If Pyro has more kills they're still random and could potentially target scum.
And there is still the possibility that he is truthful.


I am all for lynching him; what I'm saying is, that today might not be the time to do it.
Tambourines and elephants are playing in the band, and we need to eliminate the elephants first.


Vote: coju


Of course there is the very slight possibility that there is no scum-faction or that the scum-faction has been
eliminated, in which case lynching Pyro will be the appropriate action to take.

@flub: unless what?

 

[flubbucket1]

Unless you know something you're not divulging.

 

[ThomasJohnsen]

Unless you know something you're not divulging.

What might I know?
I assume you are implying that I somehow improve my chance to win by illustrating a worst-case scenario.
I was merely trying to keep the town focus on a very real threat - that scum might (notice I say might here) gain the upperhand if we are not careful in what we're doing. By lynching Pyro (assuming he is what JCakes say he is and that there are scum in play) we will most certainly make scum influence higher - there is no denying that. Time is running out, let there be no doubt, we should sort things out.
And I think we can agree that Drixx and Sathoris both being scum from 2 different factions isn't supported by the outcome of N2. The more likely scenario is that at least one is town and that the other were killed by an SK-action (possibly Pyro) and is likely town as well. As it is, I think we have to face the possibility that all 6 dead are townies and that scum-influence is pretty high today. Which I why I adviced caution.
I stand by my vote on coju. Pyro is not the right choice today imo.

 

[FredOfErik]

I'm 100% certain that Todd would be a role capable of hurting town, since he is pretty much the most evil person of the entire series. "neutral" is often seen as SK as well - on top of that, pyro says he is not Todd. Disregarding the possible existence of scum bus-drivers or jcakes being an insane cop, this means that one of them must be lying. Since jcakes claim is far more believable (way to early for such a fake claim for scum) and directly testable by lynching pyro, pyro must be lynched.

I still want to lynch coju, and if that was the way the train was going, I would switch my vote in a heartbeat. I do however find it relatively likely that pyro is the SK, and if that's the case then we can eliminate a NK faction today which should have top priority. Coju can wait til tomorrow.

This surprised me, since FoE didn't vote D1.

I was told that I could vote near day-end, but wasn't around to do so before the day had ended.

 

[ThomasJohnsen]

I'm 100% certain that Todd would be a role capable of hurting town, since he is pretty much the most evil person of the entire series. "neutral" is often seen as SK as well - on top of that, pyro says he is not Todd. Disregarding the possible existence of scum bus-drivers or jcakes being an insane cop, this means that one of them must be lying. Since jcakes claim is far more believable (way to early for such a fake claim for scum) and directly testable by lynching pyro, pyro must be lynched.

While I agree with the fact that Todd is evil and should be lynched at some point, I urge you to consider what I have to say:


If Pyro = Todd is truly a neutral SK his likely wincon is to outlive all. Which means that he is a threat to scum and town alike. And we can keep track of him at every junction - his votes and possibly his night kills; and decide when to lynch him. The concensus seems to be that JCakes is truthful, so testing the claim should not enter into the equation. I find it kind of funny, I find it kind of sad - but we should keep the serial killer alive to improve our odds.


My proposal is that we hold Pyro on a tight leash - to lynch at convenience. Or wait for mafia to NK him to eliminate a random threat to their ranks. Meanwhile we focus on decimating scum.

I will probably vote for Pyro later on today, if that's the way the wind is blowing. But I would much prefer a coju lynch.

 

[Jcakes1]

I will just try to reiterate the actions so far:
1) Night 1 we had 2 kills, which could mean any dual combo of scum-factions, SKs or similar.
2) Day 2 we had two players vote blocked (Noodle's no-vote + FoE dingified).
3) Day 2 lynch of coju failed.
4) Night 2 we had 1 kill, which per 1) suggests a block/one-shot SK/CG being a scum faction or SK/any other BA'ish scenario.
5) Day 3 we have 1 player vote blocked (CDM's no-vote + Gory dingified can apparently vote).

Note that BA changed a rule on Ding and stated that anyone with a post restriction can still vote. I'll dig up the post in a bit.

By all indications we have lost at least 4 townies, and could potentially have lost as many as 6.
That combined with a lynch being countered by some action, puts town on the defense imo.
We may safely assume that scum have a significant influence; especially if the vote-blocked player is a townie.


In the worst case scenario we have 6 dead townies and 1 blocked townie. That leaves 11 votes with an intact scum faction.
With 6 votes required for a lynch, we have to be very careful with our votes today.

Just for reference. From 18 players I would anticipate 4 mafia + 1 neutral, maybe less mafia and more neutrals. I don't think we have multiple scum factions.

While I agree with the fact that Todd is evil and should be lynched at some point, I urge you to consider what I have to say:


If Pyro = Todd is truly a neutral SK his likely wincon is to outlive all. Which means that he is a threat to scum and town alike. And we can keep track of him at every junction - his votes and possibly his night kills; and decide when to lynch him. The concensus seems to be that JCakes is truthful, so testing the claim should not enter into the equation. I find it kind of funny, I find it kind of sad - but we should keep the serial killer alive to improve our odds.


My proposal is that we hold Pyro on a tight leash - to lynch at convenience. Or wait for mafia to NK him to eliminate a random threat to their ranks. Meanwhile we focus on decimating scum.

I will probably vote for Pyro later on today, if that's the way the wind is blowing. But I would much prefer a coju lynch.

Keeping a killing faction alive doesn't improve your odds. The SK doesn't know who is mafia any better then we are and is just as likely (if not more likely) to kill additional townies. If we had a definite result on coju to suggest he was scum, then I could potentially see lynching him today, but TBH taking out a killing faction makes a lot more sense as it reduces are potential number of night deaths from 1 to 2.

From where I am sitting (and I know I am slightly biassed)
1. I have a guilty result on Pyro
2. Pyro's reaction was incredibly guilty, he instantly went on the attack and attempts to discredit me. The only reason I can see him doing that is if I am correct. See the below posts

Wait, so you had a 1x shot name/role/alignment cop?[highlight] attempt at discrediting me followed by "oh by the way you are wrong"[/highlight] Besides the fact that your result is completely wrong, [highlight] followed by discrediting me[/highlight] you expect me to believe you had a one shot that gave you all three elements in one go?

Read the post again oh smart one and let me know how "Besides your results being completely wrong" followed by "You expect me to believe" is trying to discredit you first.

[highlight] note after I call him out for attempting to discredit me he, he does it again [/highlight] If you even have such a massively overpowered ability (which I doubt), your results are incorrect. Either there was a bus drive/redirect, or you are just plain lying out your butt making a big play.

........

 

[Jcakes1]

A rule change has been made on the fly. Post restrictions were not allowed to vote. Now they are. This is not indicative of anyone's alignment or validation that post restrictions exist.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

comment about allowing votes (which is why Gory can vote today and FoE couldn't)

 

[ThomasJohnsen]

Just for reference. From 18 players I would anticipate 4 mafia + 1 neutral, maybe less mafia and more neutrals. I don't think we have multiple scum factions.
<..>
Keeping a killing faction alive doesn't improve your odds.

We have 12 players left. You suggest 4 mafia and 1 neutral initiallly.


In the following, assume we have a situation with 6 townies down and a neutral SK with unlimited kills (ie. worst-case):
This means that we are right now facing 12 players, 4 of which are scum, 1 of which is an SK and 7 of which are townies.


Scenario 1: We lynch the SK.
In all likelyhood the mafia will make a townie NK and we have a D4 with 10 players alive 4 of which are scum and 6 of which are townies.
Scum will hold 40% of the votes and it will be an extremely difficult win for town. There is ofc allways the chance of blocks/investigations
etc. etc. but even in a best case situation, 4 mafia vs. 6 townies is a near impossible win.


Scenario 2: We lynch a random player.
Going into the night we have 11 players left, 4 of which are mafia and one of which is an SK.
Here we have to remember that the SK is neutral. He has (most likely) nothing to gain from letting town win nor from letting scum win.
Thus he will probably do what he can to target scum to avoid the situation outlined in 1), since a scum majority is equally
non-beneficial for him. But for arguments sake let us assume he targets randomly - we have 4 outcomes D4:
a) 9 players left, 5 of which are town, 4 mafia and no SK (I assume here that the SK makes his kill even when targeted by scum)
Scum control 44% of the votes and it will be an extremely difficult win for town.
b) 9 players left, 5 of which are town, 3 mafia and 1 SK
Scum control 33% of the votes and the town is in almost the same situation as it is now.
c) 9 players left, 4 of which are town, 4 mafia and 1 SK
Scum control 44% of the votes and it will be an extremely difficult win for town.
d) 9 players left, 6 of which are town, 2 mafia and 1 SK
Scum control 22% of the votes and we are much better off than we are currently.
e) 10 players left 5 of which are town, 4 mafia and 1 SK (this is if SK and mafia has same target)
Scum control 40% of the votes and it will be an extremely difficult win for town.


As you will notice none of these options yield a result that is significantly worse than scenario 1). However option b yields a
result that is signicantly better than scenario 1) and is in fact comparable to our situation now. This option can be achieved in 2 ways:
* Either we lynch mafia (4 in 12 chance).
* Or the SK targets a mafia (4 in 11 chance if we fail, 3 in 11 if we don't)


And there is allways the longshot option d) which will be golden.


So by not lynching the SK we may find ourselves in the same horrible place as we would have been had we lynched him. But there is a likely outcome that
we could be better off and even a longshot chance of us being significantly better off. Thus keeping the SK alive is the best option imo.


Also you might have noticed how quickly Pyro accumulated votes. This is ofc because town and scum both consider him a threat. But atm I
think his (random or not) kills are more a hazard to mafia than they are to town. And I think the scum realize that - making him a quick target.


Oh and thanks for the info on FoE voting. I hadn't noticed that.


---


If we choose not to lynch Pyro we ofc face a difficult choice again tomorrow. I doubt Pyro will target you tonight though - for the reasons outlined above.
He'll be working in a small box, till he die.

 

[ThomasJohnsen]

I'm not a perfect person. That post had some mistakes. The line after Scenario 2 is wrong and should be removed. Also there are 5 outcomes (I wrote 4). The annoying line-breaks are because I wrote the post in notepad and forgot to edit them out.

Sorry...:dopey:

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

I don't think that pyro was in league with pharphis. There are enough holes in his mason claim that I suspect that he just made a play after Mara revealed phart to be ww.

There are no holes, there is just nothing else that I can say that can be proven further. Does my name look like pharphis? Since when do I make "big plays" or plays at all for that matter. I can just as easily coast on by, why bother bring my self to the center of attention with the claim like I did. There was no incentive for me to do so as a scum player unless I was willing to take a big unprovable gamble and thats not my style.

Role not that op. Single shot and I am now essentially vt. It probably seems op to you as I caught you.

Well congrats Mr. Role not that op. Apparently you are going to succeed in getting a townie lynched. So good job! Props to you! GG scum.

Why isn't it a good sign? I think that would help town more than mafia, not getting lynched...
Flubs 354: did pyro state that he was the only member? Lorewise, Todd was part of Walters group at one point. Pyro flipping out about it would lead me to believe that Todd is scum.

Pyro 356: yes and no. All I will say now is that one of my shots was used up, saying more now will only help mafia.

I can't believe this guy is not getting more heat. I used up "one" of my shots to not be be lynched, you have got to be kidding me. A failed lynch plus a claim like this has to be the saddest excuse for scum ever and nothing is being done about it.

Vote: coju

Because I do not think Jcakes has the testicular fortitude to launch such a bold maneuver without just cause.




Also Pyrotechnician is a proven lying liar lie face with flame pants....I'm just sayin'

So cakes has never in his mafia career pulled a bold move. I have to disagree, and in my opinion he would be more likely to pull a big move. And just because my pants are flaming does not make me a liar. My pants are always flaming. I'm just sayin.

I'm 100% certain that Todd would be a role capable of hurting town, since he is pretty much the most evil person of the entire series. "neutral" is often seen as SK as well - on top of that, pyro says he is not Todd. Disregarding the possible existence of scum bus-drivers or jcakes being an insane cop, this means that one of them must be lying. Since jcakes claim is far more believable (way to early for such a fake claim for scum) and directly testable by lynching pyro, pyro must be lynched.

I still want to lynch coju, and if that was the way the train was going, I would switch my vote in a heartbeat. I do however find it relatively likely that pyro is the SK, and if that's the case then we can eliminate a NK faction today which should have top priority. Coju can wait til tomorrow.



I was told that I could vote near day-end, but wasn't around to do so before the day had ended.

Your entire arguement is that this Todd guy is evil, neutral means SK, and Pyro says he isn't so therefore he must be. Excellent support for your vote. Besides the point that Cakes hasn't done squat for the entire game, how does his claim become more believable than mine. Also note, the mention of scum bus drivers. It almost sounds like you know of one of those. You know what, I bet you do. Even if Jcakes is the role he says he is your setting yourself up for the perfect win scenario. We lynch pyro, he comes up town, by result we lynch Jcakes. Great scum wins, gg guys, lets go home.


P.S. Thanks for the support and all Thomas, but your entire theory is pointless because I'm not the SK. If I was the SK for once in my life (that mini game doesn't count for anything) I wouldn't go around making pharphis level claims. You better bet your *** I would try to keep a low profile and take all of you out silently.


There you have it guys, scum list for all:

Coju, followed heavily by FredofErik, then Jcakes (on the slim chance that he actually has the role he says). Throw Goryani on there for being narrowly focused and flubbucket for blindly following these other people and we can call it a day.

 

[Goryani]

Coju, you mind voting today so we can see whether or not it counts?

Ding !

 

[thefranklin]

Vote: FredofErik

 

[coju]

While I agree with the fact that Todd is evil and should be lynched at some point, I urge you to consider what I have to say:


If Pyro = Todd is truly a neutral SK his likely wincon is to outlive all. Which means that he is a threat to scum and town alike. And we can keep track of him at every junction - his votes and possibly his night kills; and decide when to lynch him. The concensus seems to be that JCakes is truthful, so testing the claim should not enter into the equation. I find it kind of funny, I find it kind of sad - but we should keep the serial killer alive to improve our odds.


My proposal is that we hold Pyro on a tight leash - to lynch at convenience. Or wait for mafia to NK him to eliminate a random threat to their ranks. Meanwhile we focus on decimating scum.

I will probably vote for Pyro later on today, if that's the way the wind is blowing. But I would much prefer a coju lynch.

I have a feeling that the SK may not be just a sk, but a second group that contains the NeoNazis (Todd's Uncle).

Walter White may have been in multiple factions, since he was in the series. Think back to the NCIS game, I believe there was a "Spy" that was in two separate QT threads(mason groups). While this theory is a long shot, it could be.

"Ding Ding" on the seeing if I can vote today.

 

[thefranklin]

I did think about it. My reason for not doing it is
1. If there are any other investigative powers they were likely to use it on coju.
2. If coju is mafia and they have any abilities to hide a role (through swaps etc) they would use it last night
3. Pyro claim D1 seemed very suspect and only gory was pushing so I thought he might be scum
4. Coju likely to be lynched again regardless of what I say
5. I wanted to use my ability last night
6. Only one shot refer 2. And 5.

Thanks for the response. I had asked the question first before I checked to see if you voted for Coju.

Why isn't it a good sign? I think that would help town more than mafia, not getting lynched...
Flubs 354: did pyro state that he was the only member? Lorewise, Todd was part of Walters group at one point. Pyro flipping out about it would lead me to believe that Todd is scum.

Pyro 356: yes and no. All I will say now is that one of my shots was used up, saying more now will only help mafia.

So you are taking credit for your lynch not going through? Yes?

Care to explain how this is a town aligned power?

Or how it was helpful to the town in any way, us having to lynch you again? It will be very hard to let you go the rest of the game, and if it got down to you and one other person, it will be awfully hard to lynch the other person.

 

[thefranklin]

While I agree with the fact that Todd is evil and should be lynched at some point, I urge you to consider what I have to say:


If Pyro = Todd is truly a neutral SK his likely wincon is to outlive all. Which means that he is a threat to scum and town alike. And we can keep track of him at every junction - his votes and possibly his night kills; and decide when to lynch him. The concensus seems to be that JCakes is truthful, so testing the claim should not enter into the equation. I find it kind of funny, I find it kind of sad - but we should keep the serial killer alive to improve our odds.

This sounds like 100% scum. You have done zero scum hunting, you have had long, long talks with little substance. Scum would want to keep the sk around at this point, it will help them win the game quicker.

 

[thefranklin]

@ Gory Post 365: Trying to tell us that scum vote restricted their own on D1, with Coju playing dumb about it when he knows exactly who has that power?

@ all: do you think scum have both the vote restriction and the post restriction? Or would one be from this sociopath or another neutral party?

 

[ThomasJohnsen]

P.S. Thanks for the support and all Thomas

You're welcome. I wasn't giving much support though - I am all for killing you; I just don't think today is the day to do it.

I have a feeling that the SK may not be just a sk, but a second group that contains the NeoNazis

Wow - so two scum factions with 12 players left. What are we to do?

This sounds like 100% scum. You have done zero scum hunting, you have had long, long talks with little substance. Scum would want to keep the sk around at this point, it will help them win the game quicker.

That is complete and utter BS. Try out the scenarios by numbers! Explain please in detail how mafia could gain an advantage from having an SK around (assuming ofc he kills to serve his own agenda - and has neutral alignment).
Any SK intent on winning the game has to be worried about scum majority. Think back to the all SK game - I remember desperately trying to target mafia on night 2 because a mafia majority would mean a loss for me. An outed SK might not think that way - he may just give up and self-destruct or just kill randomly. But if he plays consistantly (as I think he should/ought) and tries to win even facing tremendous odds, he should be very worried about mafia domination. I'm living life do or die, what can I say?


Thus in situations where mafia influence is high, keeping a known SK alive can be a good thing because his interests coincide with those of the town. Later on when mafia has been whittled down (unless both town and SK are unlucky in their pursuits) the SK can be disposed of quietly.


And explain please also the "out of the blue; no explanation" vote for FoE.
Oh and explain please how Pyro was able to accumulate 5 votes extremely early in the day if scum have an interest in keeping him alive.

 

[Bad Ash]

BPC is taking the reigns of the game for a day or two.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

 

[Goryani]

By all indications we have lost at least 4 townies

Ding!Ding!

All I got was Walter White, Pro-Town, Progressive ability. Nothing was said about being a mason.

Marahumm has been lynched. He was Mike Ehrmantraut. Town. 2X-Vigilante.

Logoutzero has been modkilled. He was Tortuga. Town. Police Informant.

3. Sathoris (NK night 1)
4. Drixx (NK night 1)
6. Caluin Graye (NK night 2)

 

[Goryani]

the only ones willing to save coju

Unvote: Pyrotechnician
Vote: ThomasJohnsen

I could ask the same of Goryani, but will most likely just get a dingish answer.

Ding!

why do you choose to take JCakes word over that of Pyro?

Ding!Ding!

after a D2 concensus on coju.

Ding!Ding!

anyone want to convince me to vote coju?