Mini-mafia - The Haunting of Timothy Robertson

[logoutzero]

Pharphis, I've mapped out every possible setup with 6 players remaining:

1 town, 5 neutral.
1 town, 4 neutral, 1 scum.
1 town, 3 neutral, 2 scum.
1 town, 2 neutral, 3 scum.
1 town, 1 nuetral, 4 scum.
1 town, 5 scum.
2 town, 4 neutral.
2 town, 3 neutral, 1 scum.
2 town, 2 neutral, 2 scum.
2 town, 1 neutral, 3 scum.
2 town, 4 scum.
3 town, 3 neutral.
3 town, 2 neutral, 1 scum.
3 town, 1 neutral, 2 scum.
3 town, 3 scum.
4 town, 2 neutral.
4 town, 1 neutral, 1 scum.
4 town, 2 scum.
5 town, 1 neutral.
5 town, 1 scum.
0 Town?
6 Town?

Obviously, I highly doubt there are 6 townies left. And I KNOW FOR A FACT that there is at least 1 townie.

All the 1 town scenarios seem too lol.
2 town, 1 neutral, 3 scum is possible I think.
3/1/2 is possible, and maybe even likely.
4/1/1 is most likely I think, and what I am going with.
4/0/2 is possible I suppose, but that means scum have 2 NKs, which I find outlandish.
5 townies would mean that 1 person has been responsible for both night kills the whole game. While not impossible, I'd like to think CG isn't trolling us, since he said he wasn't.

With that said, here's what I think is happening here:

I think Bad Ash is scum. I think his "technician" role is some sort of cop block/role fish/role redirect type of thing. He could still be a bus driver as well. Only scum would know this, as they would be experiencing kills they didn't sanction, as we had to deal with last game in the X-Men.

I think BPC is the SK, or some type of non-town with a night kill. Maybe he is crazy, and doesn't know he is doing the killing, but I'm assuming that I'm the only VT left at this point, since the majority of you have claimed to have lied on claim day.

That leaves Phar (claimed town cop) CDM (claimed town doc) Moar (claimed town 1x shot double jailkeeper/commuter/roleblocker hybrid, which I see as a town abilitiy) and myself, the only VT left alive.

At this point, I am inclined to believe that Phar is being truthful, he is town, and some flavor investigator. I mostly believe CDM's claim of town doc, but lack of any apparent saves, and his "soldier" claim leave a bit of suspicion. This is where I say that a 3 townie scenario is possible.

I also believe that Moar is likely town, because, in a small game like this, any sort of doc/jailkeeper/roleblocker hybrid screams townie to me.

I'm willing to lynch BPC or BA right here and now. I'm willing to entertain any retort they have, but I'm almost certain on their alignments. I also have some ideas for our power roles' targets tonight, but, of course, if we discuss it here, scum will know what to expect.

Thoughts?

 

[logoutzero]

First, only one of my targets would have to be switched on one of those nights for me to get double results.[sup]1[/sup] Not unlikely at all.
Second by low profile do you mean your ~5 posts total? You haven't contributed a single thought this game before this post and I'd now be shocked if you weren't anti-town.[sup]2[/sup] SK again? mafia bus driver? Mafia bus driver's friend? Whichever it is I think you're the best lynch today. The doc/roleblock type claim is convenient ofc but the same goes for CDM.

@logo
I feel like if BPC or BA were a (town) bus driver they would have already made a claim to save me and confirm results

1.) If you investigated CDM and myself, then that would mean that either CDM or myself have to be lying. Either I am bulletproof and lying, or CDM is lying a third time, after just claiming doc, or you are lying, or you are getting false results. <-Not a stretch with a "technician" in the game.

2.) In my limited experience, scum Moar is very vocal, very flashy. I always feel like she is a bit of a lurker, no, more of a "trying to be center stage without being the center of attention" type. I'm inclined to believe her cabbie claim, and her town alignment.

I think we agree on most things, but we are coming to different conclusions. I'm almost certain that BA is lying, and has become my lynch vote for today.

Vote: Bad Ash

From the start, he seemed to focus in on small details like you did last game as scum. Then he got quiet, and now he is here, but not really.

 

[pharphis]

I'm not sure why you believe Moar so easily. She's made nearly no posts this game and her claim is too convenient. Yes it's a mega townie claim. That's part of why I don't believe her. Other than that general lurkiness and I still think there is a bus driver. I suppose BA could be screwing with my results but i don't know why it would be bulletproof both times. That seems like a really weird tinkering. Besides, wouldn't he most likely have to target me? It seems unlikely he'd hit me up both nights unless he knew I was role cop via a mafia role cop or something.

Aside from all of that I don't really get a scum vibe from BA

 

[logoutzero]

What do you think about BPC then?

 

[logoutzero]

"I still think there is a bis driver. I suppose BA could be screwing with my results..."

I think BA could still be a bus driver, but as you said, a townie bus driver should have claimed, which he didn't.

So either I am one of the last townies alive, and you guys just haven't been able to find the neutral killer, or, we need to lynch BA today to get answers.

 

[logoutzero]

If BA flips any type of town role, bus driver or otherwise, then Moar becomes our highest priority target, assuming the rest of you are actually townies.

If BA flips anything not town, then it depends on who is killed tonight. Obviously our power roles have some very important choices to make, as to who we are going to save, and who we are going to jailkeep.

 

[pharphis]

I think BPC has been active but I have a scummier read on him than BA. That may or may not be OMGUS from today but he hasn't really made any posts that stand out to me to be townie or scum. He stuck with the vanilla claim but so did BA. So b/w the two of them it's a toss-up for me.

 

[pharphis]

If BA flips any type of town role, bus driver or otherwise, then Moar becomes our highest priority target, assuming the rest of you are actually townies.

If BA flips anything not town, then it depends on who is killed tonight. Obviously our power roles have some very important choices to make, as to who we are going to save, and who we are going to jailkeep.

I'm curious why you suggest moar over BPC if we lynch BA and he flips town? What if moar dies tonight (and hence extremely likely to be lying about her role)

 

[logoutzero]

So here's what I think.

For now, we leave Moar alone, on the off chance (by your logic) that she is being truthful. If she is what she says she is, that's a game-winning shot for us that we NEED tonight to stay in this game. If she is scum, then we've lost already, and this game is actually down to Mafia vs the Neutral.

If we take out BA, and he is scum, we have a chance at pulling off a win. If BA is town, then tonight's kills may well win the game.

If you agree that BA and BPC are about equal, then I think we need to lynch one of them. Too much hinges on Moar being truthful for us to afford her loss. Also, again, I'm fairly certain that if she is not the only remaining scum, then town have lost anyway.

In my mind, it comes down to this:

Do we think Moar is lying, and is the last mafia alive, or an SK. "Cabbie" could also be SK in this setting.

If we can all agree that town are the majority here, and Moar is either SK or last scum, then sure, let's hang her. But I don't think that's the situation we are in.

 

[logoutzero]

I'm curious why you suggest moar over BPC if we lynch BA and he flips town? What if moar dies tonight (and hence extremely likely to be lying about her role)

I'm banking on the thought that Moar is being honest, and is going to use her shot tonight, because in almost every single scenario, that's the only way town lives to fight another day. I think there is no-chance of Moar being NK'd tonight.

 

[pharphis]

So here's what I think.

For now, we leave Moar alone, on the off chance (by your logic) that she is being truthful. If she is what she says she is, that's a game-winning shot for us that we NEED tonight to stay in this game. If she is scum, then we've lost already, and this game is actually down to Mafia vs the Neutral.

If we take out BA, and he is scum, we have a chance at pulling off a win. If BA is town, then tonight's kills may well win the game.

If you agree that BA and BPC are about equal, then I think we need to lynch one of them. Too much hinges on Moar being truthful for us to afford her loss. Also, again, I'm fairly certain that if she is not the only remaining scum, then town have lost anyway.

In my mind, it comes down to this:

Do we think Moar is lying, and is the last mafia alive, or an SK. "Cabbie" could also be SK in this setting.

If we can all agree that town are the majority here, and Moar is either SK or last scum, then sure, let's hang her. But I don't think that's the situation we are in.

That's the other thing. For me, at least, it's a 50/50 shot of choosing right between BA and BPC, if one of them is even scum. We still have lots of time to think about it, though.

About moar's cabbie claim and anyone else's. We claimed D2, after 2 NKs. Anyone could be lying about their name/job as a result. Moar doesn't have to be a cabbie anymore than BA has to be a technician

 

[logoutzero]

I'm so lost right now.

On one hand, we have people claiming that they lied on mass claim day because they had a strong town role. What about Lynch All Liars?

We have a claimed cop(Phar) with wrong results, who's banking on a bus driver claim to "clear" some combination of Phar/CDM/Logout.
We have a claimed Doc(CDM), but no apparent saves. Are you really that unlucky CDM? N1 we had only 10 players, and 2 kills, so you should have had nearly 1:5 chance to save someone. [highlight]N2 we had only 7 players[/highlight], so you should have had better than a ~1:4 chance to save someone.
We have BPC-Groundskeeper and Logout-Salesman who have retained they are vanilla townies.
We have BA-Technician who hasn't said he isn't VT, but also didn't reiterate that he was.
And we have Moar, who hasn't been very active, who now claimed 1x double commuter/roleblocker.

So we have 3 that have admitted to lying, with the cover of "I'm first time with this role, so I lied on Mass Claim Day to save myself." (paraphrasing/exaggerating/making up/summarizing)

Usually, townies be like "oh, you lied and withheld info, that's scum" but we have none of that happening here.

With 6 players alive, and the game continuing under "normal" rules, we can assume that:

-There's NOT more than 2 scum and no neutral, as the game would be over.
-There COULD be 2 scum and no neutral, but then we would have 2 NKs coming from 1 faction, OR 2x 1 man scum factions. (doesn't make sense with mod-sanctioned mafia day-talk)
-There COULD be any combination of scum/neutrals up to 5, as long as there is at least 1 of each. I say 5, because I only KNOW one person's claim to be true.

If we assume 1 SK, and no other neutrals, there can be anywhere from 1-4 scum left at this point, this is covered by point 3. I'm trying to map out as many possible scenarios as I can right now.

Preview Edit:
Moar has posted to be a 1x 2 person commute, with a roleblock on her target. Not a bus driver. So phar's only left with:
BPC-Groundskeeper to claim bus driver.
Logout-Salesman, who is not a bus driver.
BA-Technician to claim bus driver.
Or CDM to reclaim (and make a second lie, at that!) as bus driver.

Just wanted to fix this, I forgot we had a no-lynch D2. Still 1:4 chance to save someone.

 

[pharphis]

I have nothing else to claim.

Pharphis...

So it was your idea to mass claim. I'm on my phone can you remind me who you investigated last night and why?

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

I forgot to answer this.
CDM for his LAMISTing at day start D2.

Are there any thoughts on who would be the best target for me to investigate tonight?

 

[logoutzero]

I think my post got eaten by, a large, amphibious creature with many tentacles.

Who should you investigate?

If we lynch Moar, then BPC or BA. If we don't lynch Moar, I'd say to investigate her, because I think the only chance town has at winning is her using her shot, and we can verify both of you if you get a failed result on her, and she uses her shot.

 

[BipolarChemist]

I've been trying to hold a low profile this game since I haven't yet used my one-shot ability. One night I can choose to drive one player out of town. That gives us both NK immunity and is a roleblock on my target.

Im in doubt about pharphis and his results. I can't really see that there are several such abilities in game and that whoever has them used them on his targets both nights.

This is such an awkward claim, but other than that you're giving no insight into the game. Are you gonna give any thoughts or just continue coasting by?

 

[Bad Ash]

Lynching me because someone who claims he is a VT doesn't believe I am a VT. Makes sense.

I agree moars claim is odd

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

 

[Bad Ash]

So we have a firefighter who's a cop.

A Soldier who's a doctor.

A cabbie who claims to be...a cabbie

and two bullet proof ability investigations in CDM and logoout

I would actually say that bulletproof townie is much more likely than mafia with at least one vigilante in play who had two shots in a small game. Does anyone disagree with this? Leaning towards Moar right now.

 

[Moar]

As I see it there are several possibilities.

1) pharphis is lying.

2) There is someone affecting him getting false results.

3) There is someone or more than one making his targets being bulletproof.

I can believe 1) or 2) but not 3) since I have that role. I do not believe there is any other that can do the same in the game.

Pharphis is my prime suspect especially for the way he tries to paint me scum. Why is me lying about being VT worse than him lying about being VT? My role is quite valuable for the town and I wanted to make it to the day it counted. Which is tonight.

 

[logoutzero]

If Pharphis is lying and is scum, what do you think that says about me or CDM? CDM reclaimed after Phar made his bulletproof claim, do you think they are in cahoots?

 

[Bad Ash]

The fact that anyone lied during the mass claim yesterday is highly disturbing and makes all of the claim less believable today than they would have been yesterday.