Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

lol, me and mara just made exactly the same post
great minds think alike i guess.

Allthough i don't think there will be another 3 player faction. That would mean the town has to lynch correctly for 6 times, while they are killed 2 at a time. I think that's mathematically impossible. (of course the hostile factions could eliminate eachother a bit, but still...)

 

[Ludacris]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Where are the 10 pages of nothing I was promised? Only 7 so far

 

[SiTro]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

no, I mentioned it in the sign-up thread already, the chance of town killing a mafia without ANY night info is so slim that after night 1 (where the game normally starts) we'll most probably just have 2 less townies rather that only 1 (had the game started at night).

I tend to err on the side of this reasoning. If we had a choice as to whether the game started with a day or a night phase, I think the town choosing to start with a day would be a gamble that relied on two details. Firstly, the extra lynch gained needs to hit a mafia member. These odds are probably low but hopefully fairly constant (due to balancing concerns). The odds can be improved though if during the course of the day some information is deduced/revealed that helps narrow the choice. Probably close to impossible to estimate a probability here.

The flip side of the mafia being unable to communicate with each other is, as has been pointed out, townie power roles are also disabled until then. In particular, if there is a mason group then they're as restricted as mafia today.

Sitro, as true as that may be, last round a mafia member was modkilled due to inactivity. Also why keep an inactive arround even if hes a townie? It helps us with nothing, but in the event of a modkill we learn his alignment. Thus more info for the town.

Fair enough, you've seen the opposite case happen. I would still believe that an inactive is more likely to be a townie though (potentially a townie disillusioned because they got 'stuck' with the basic townie role).

I'd have been keen to keep them around because even if the town ended up lynching them anyway at least then their role would be learnt. If the mafia nk'ed them (although unlikely), then they probably weren't mafia after all. I didn't realise that the rules here reveal roles to the town after a modkill, that's quite generous. If anyone is going to be modkilled, at least we won't be unsure as to whether they were scum or not.

Krazeyivan - Yeah, I'm the cop. I investigated Gorny last night and it turns out he's mafia. Bad times for him.








........oh wait.

There seem to be a lot of posts that are basically just checking in. Odd.

I need to think about CC's post in #30 a bit more. Either he's telling the truth and Turb is playing the extreme newbie card, or he's posting a 'vague memory' to try and throw some suspicion onto Turb today. I think that'd be a bold move for mafia at this point in the game, but it's not impossible.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

So far the only person that really sticks out in my mind is aman. SiTro was the one talking about using "mafia points" (which I'm still a bit clueless as to what exactly they are) but he has yet to use them, and aman has already posted a table of them, albeit in a slightly joking matter ( I think?) Do the rest of you guys think he's trying to deflect suspicion?

 

[Aman]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Take a look at previous games, it's sort of a running joke. I issued crowd control a bunch early last game as well.


*Last game i played in.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

...
Fair enough, you've seen the opposite case happen. I would still believe that an inactive is more likely to be a townie though (potentially a townie disillusioned because they got 'stuck' with the basic townie role).

I'd have been keen to keep them around because even if the town ended up lynching them anyway at least then their role would be learnt. If the mafia nk'ed them (although unlikely), then they probably weren't mafia after all. I didn't realise that the rules here reveal roles to the town after a modkill, that's quite generous. If anyone is going to be modkilled, at least we won't be unsure as to whether they were scum or not.
...

The general consensus in mafia games is that lynching a non active townie is slightly worse then lynching a mafia and slightly better then lynching a random townie. A non-active will not be participating in lynches, and therefore decreases the likelihood of lynch locking, which is detrimental to us townies.

...
I need to think about CC's post in #30 a bit more. Either he's telling the truth and Turb is playing the extreme newbie card, or he's posting a 'vague memory' to try and throw some suspicion onto Turb today. I think that'd be a bold move for mafia at this point in the game, but it's not impossible.

Turb's posting style in general is indicative that he plays the "idiot" but possesses a deeper intelligence. I would gather that he has at least read up on the rules, maybe even as much as I did my first game, but is "playing dumb" to crew with people's reads on him. whether this is a suspicious move or not I don't know at this point, but it bears consideration.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Take a look at previous games, it's sort of a running joke. I issued crowd control a bunch early last game as well.


*Last game i played in.

Ah, well that would explain it. I'm just trying to stir things up right now to see who I can get to bite. Just ask Gorny how I play.

 

[Noammr]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

It's hard to say whether a lynch today would be beneficial. power roles have not had a chance to do anything, so lynching and hitting a townie does not give us any additional info.

I don't agree, the first day lynch can give you information even if it hits a townie as long as there's a good flow of discussion before and around it.
Not saying it's a desirable outcome, but it can still benefit the town with more info.

About town to mafia ratios - don't forget that the town can also be burdened with anti-power roles (ie crazy/naive cops, princesses and millers) to balance the town vs. scum ratios. It really is no use guessing the ratio atm, we'll know more after the first night (seeing number of nk and so on).

 

[Orphan]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Yeah but with the difference in timezones.. aren't some people sleeping at this point?

Indeed. Just for the record I'm from Australia so chances are I'm in an opposite timezone to alot of other people. It's still great to hop up ~70 odd posts though, gives me something to do in the morning :thumbup:

SiTro was the one talking about using "mafia points" (which I'm still a bit clueless as to what exactly they are) but he has yet to use them, and aman has already posted a table of them, albeit in a slightly joking matter ( I think?)

Ah, well that would explain it. I'm just trying to stir things up right now to see who I can get to bite. Just ask Gorny how I play.

Hmm, as someone who has played in few mafia games I would have thought you'd have known about the "mafia points" thing by now, unless it wasn't something used previously :scratchchin:

Turb's posting style in general is indicative that he plays the "idiot" but possesses a deeper intelligence. I would gather that he has at least read up on the rules, maybe even as much as I did my first game, but is "playing dumb" to crew with people's reads on him.

I do have a question though, what are you thoughts on the mafia point gimmick anyway?

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

I was just thinking, and let me do this outloud. We know Ankeli said hes going to have special roles, there is not theme here so we have no idea what to expect.
What we know at the moment is that there are 18 of us, atleast 3 mafia and the rest can be anything Ankelis imagination can make up. Now, the only way to figure out whats in Ankelis mind is to either torture him to talk, or lynch as much as possible to find out what roles/groups are out here.
So despite of my thoughts of not lynching anyone today unless we have some solid proof, i suggest we do lynch someone, not matter the outcome to get an idea what we are up against.

The mafia is not the towns worst enemy, Ankeli is

 

[SiTro]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

We'd run the risk though of finding a special role that gives a large boost to the town, or hinders the mafia to some extent. Is it actually worth not lynching anyone today? We'd end up in the starting position of all previous games on this site, with one major difference. There'd have been an entire days worth of discussion prior to dusk, giving roles like the cop, doctor or bus driver some indication of where their abilities would be most useful.

Something to consider perhaps.

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Just checking in. More a post to say I am here than anything else. Not really huge amiunts to say.

On the subject of starting in the daytime. I fail to see how this could possibly be bad for the town? As far as I see it it's exactly the saem as starting in the night only now we get a chance to get a feel for the players and maybe chatch out some early innactivities. Nothing says the town has to lynch anyone today. If we don't then it would only result in the same thing as starting the game in night, That is one townie dead. Only this way we've had 2 days to get a feel for each other. Anyone else agree?

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

SiTro has sayed exactly the same thing as me as i wrote this up

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Hmm, as someone who has played in few mafia games I would have thought you'd have known about the "mafia points" thing by now, unless it wasn't something used previously :scratchchin:

I've played the last 3 games. This is my 4th. I tried to mod a very simple game at another forum I visit, with disastrous effects. None of these games featured "mafia points" and a search of google brought up very little. I also didn't see them described on mafiascum, but I could have easily overlooked them. I'm guessing by the way people are talking that it is some sort of point system to weigh statistical chances of people being mafia based on posts. but what exactly it is, I've no idea.

I do have a question though, what are you thoughts on the mafia point gimmick anyway?

If I'm correct in my assumption above, it is something intended to ferret out scum. this could either help point out suspicious behavior, or mask such behavior if the person keeping tally has ulterior motives.

 

[Crowd Control]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Mafiapoints is just a crap 'system' SiTro invented so he looks smart.

Btw, anybody seen Gornmans avatar?

 

[Ludacris]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Mafiapoints is just a crap 'system' SiTro invented so he looks smart.

Btw, anybody seen Gornmans avatar?

It's handy, if you're on the list and actually guilty you'll act differntly then an innocent person high on the list. I'd like to see Sitro reguraly update his maffia table.

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

gorny changed his avatar before the game. He said so in the sign-up.

I'll think I'll agree with BoD and sitro. It doesn't seem like a good idea at the moment to lynch someone today.
Do keep the conversation flowing however, there's always a chance a mafia will slip up...

 

[SiTro]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

I'm guessing by the way people are talking that it is some sort of point system to weigh statistical chances of people being mafia based on posts. but what exactly it is, I've no idea.

Heh, CC's almost there with his description. The Mafia Point system is designed to help myself and others find scum and attract haters to me. It first made it's appearance in this round. While simple to operate and efficient, it suffers from the downsides that it is difficult to understand and carries on working long after a round finishes - making its results irrelevent.

I don't think I will be using it in this round personally, I believe it needs some relaxation time first.

Just checking in. More a post to say I am here than anything else. Not really huge amiunts to say.

This is exactly what I'm trying to avoid! -

There seem to be a lot of posts that are basically just checking in. Odd.

Check in posts are useless, even dangerous. You contribute nothing to the town that way, but give the impression that you are following along with the game. Perfect for a mafioso trying to blend in and fly under the radar. Although BoD Trader does expand his post more afterwards.

After some thought I'm not convinced that a no-lynch is the best plan today. Even though the chance of finding a mafia is low I think we have to take it, it remains a slightly more desirable option than not lynching anyone. Coupled with the fact that most of the times where a no-lynch is the optimal strategy occur in the endgame and/or when the number of remaining mafia members is known, my conclusion is that we should lynch someone today.

Btw, anybody seen Gornmans avatar?

Just so it's known...my sig and avatar changed before the game started.

Clutching at straws?

Orphan - Reading 70 posts all at once hopefully gives you a better view of the 'big picture' than someone like myself who's been commenting throughout. As you read through did you notice anything that struck you as particularly odd?

Noammr - How useful do you think the 'First to discuss a role probably has that role' policy is?

aman - How likely do you think a Bus Driver is?

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

gorny changed his avatar before the game. He said so in the sign-up.

Gorny has changed it again since that was mentioned. I think?? I actually cant remember now. Now i think about it i dont think he did. It was Oneill with the glowing eyes then this was it?

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

This is exactly what I'm trying to avoid! -

Can't avoid that which is inevitable. If theres nothing to post about then there is nothing to post about. You want to hear me add something then just ask me a question. I merely sayed that because i didn't want to be the guy that was innactive and ruining the game and the towns chances of a win.