Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

[Leopold Stotch]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

hey guys! sorry about the inactivity. just got home from the fam's place a little while ago and read everything. i was happy when i saw there were just five more pages added and not ten or more. hehe! i'll be more active tomorrow after 11 central.

some thoughts i had...

are you role-fishing already?

no, it just seemed a little fishy to me. i mean, he only talked about a cop. he could've added other roles to his sentence (like, "a save from the doc" or, "someone getting role-blocked" ya know, whatever else). instead he only suggested a cop. it could've been coincidence or the first thing that popped in his head as an example, but sometimes people try and be sly as to telling us something no one will catch but is right there in our face (translation: "i just said im a cop when it's sounding like im saying it as an example. maybe no one will catch that." )

What does everyone else think?

i think we can ask ourselves two questions and look at however we feel is right:

(one), if we lynch no one, what does everyone (townies, mafia, SK, whoever else is in here that i did not list-if that's possible) gain from that? *answer* townies are no less better at finding out who the Scummy Mcscum Scums are (like, we don't have any leads to go on and figure out the alliance), the Scums know who is a threat and who isn't a threat and they will talk to each other to see who *runs finger against throat. screech* gets it. same with the SK. then we when all wake up tomorrow and see what is done, we have to go on the night's events and ASSUME things.

OR...

(two), we get the noose ready and prepare to LEARN SOMETHING, whether it's useless as the Twilight manuscript (sorry if anyone is a Twilight lover. i will try to be nice. hehe! but no promises!) or not.

so...shall we ASSUME something and base it off interpretation or shall we LEARN something concrete and factual? fact vs. possible fiction? :scratchchin:

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Luda was indeed mafia the last two rounds he played. Highly like it to be mafia again. Other faction ask SK or something alike, more probabile, but i really doubt he has the luck (or curse) to be mafia again.
The point that the power-roles can get a better feel on who to act on during the night is somewhat irelevant. In a game this big, coming out with your role and findings too soon can be a VERY bad mestake. The only role that can help is the blocker/doc who might get a lucky guess and save someone from a NK.

 

[Marahumm]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Us learning something is never useless. Lynching someone is the only way to figure out a role publicly. It would do us no good to do nothing.

The question that I believe should be asked for everyone is what type of player should we vote for? Do we lynch someone that's not contributing, or someone more active?

Each option has pros and cons of course. Lynching a non-active would only give us his role, and little affiliates/potential adversaries. Lynching an active player would give us more information based on whoever he/she has been agreeing with or arguing against, but at the cost of the possibility of future no-lynches with keeping a non-active alive.

So my question to everyone is, if we DO lynch someone day 1, what type would you lynch, active or non-active?

I think I would go for the most suspicious active player to get as much information as possible. The only concrete info we will get are the day lynches, and I don't believe we should take that for granted.

 

[Leopold Stotch]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Us learning something is never useless. Lynching someone is the only way to figure out a role publicly. It would do us no good to do nothing.

i meant useless as if we lynched someone who is a vanilla frosted townie (mmm...i kinda wanna cookie now), but then again, it would help bcuz we could figure out affliations and the like, ya know? ok, so i get where you're coming from.

So my question to everyone is, if we DO lynch someone day 1, what type would you lynch, active or non-active?

i feel that depends on how you look at it. i think someone had pointed out that if we lynched an NA player, we would learn his/her role, but not who he/she agreed/disagreed with, found suspicious, etc. if we lynch an active player, not only would we learn his/her role, we would know which direction they were wanting to go, who he found most unusual, etc. it depends on how we look at it and which way we wanna go, imo.

see you guys in the morning!!! ^_^

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

mafia tend to lay back and hide. They won't be the most active players in the game. So lynching an active player is a bad guess imo. It also slows down the conversation, and thus the process of thought in the game.

A hypothetical question for you CC, if you were anti-town would you want a lynch today?

I'd like to see this question answer by you as well Orphan (perhaps after CC did)

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

on the other hand, I'm not a fan of killing inactives either.

@ANKELI: I'm not sure if you mentioned before: will roles be told when you modkill someone?

(if so, we should NEVER lynch inactives)

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

@ANKELI: I'm not sure if you mentioned before: will roles be told when you modkill someone?

(if so, we should NEVER lynch inactives)

I haven't mentioned it yet, but I will reveal the roles. I've made the game very hard for the town as it is, inactives shouldn't hinder them more.

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

then it seems like our best bet is to lynch an "i'm stayin below the rader muhahaha" player.

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

just another post because now, i have 666 posts. Good thing this isn't a diablo themed game

 

[SiTro]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

So you're willing to take the chance and (most probably) lynch an active townie, which would be of help to the town (compared to a non-active one)?

Yes.

On the other hand, someone who has commented throughout would be able to analyze each post as they come. With that said, is there anything that stands out to you SiTro? What do you think about the current general consensus to avoid a lynch on day 1 by a few people?

I don't like it. It's similar to a normal Day 1 situation, and there's normally people arguing for a no-lynch there as well. We're an uninformed majority and the more we can close the information gap to the mafia the better chance we stand. Lynching is how we do that.

no, it just seemed a little fishy to me. i mean, he only talked about a cop. he could've added other roles to his sentence (like, "a save from the doc" or, "someone getting role-blocked" ya know, whatever else). instead he only suggested a cop. it could've been coincidence or the first thing that popped in his head as an example, but sometimes people try and be sly as to telling us something no one will catch but is right there in our face (translation: "i just said im a cop when it's sounding like im saying it as an example. maybe no one will catch that." )

If it's a townie power role sometimes it's best not to point it out. In case the mafia agrees.

Luda was indeed mafia the last two rounds he played. Highly like it to be mafia again.

Gambler's Fallacy. :grin:

mafia tend to lay back and hide. They won't be the most active players in the game.

Really? Are you sure this is a safe assumption to make?

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

all we can do is assume of course, but that''s usually how mafia play. But now that i've said that, they can adapt and there's no way to tell...

I'm afraid you're correct in that we have to lynch someone. It feels totally wrong, it always does (even if game starts at night) but it's the only weapon we have, so we have to use it.

I seem to create this discussion in every mafia game I play, and I always start with the idea of a no-lynch. I still don't know what's best, the odds are against us so hard, yet it's the only shot we have.
If there's an SK and we manage to take him out early (as we did with gorny last game) it'll save u a TON of townies, so that might be worth the risk.

I really don't know, but if my vote is needed to get to 9, i'll give it.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Sitro, i was mafia two rounds, and last round ended up a townie. I think the same would apply to Luda. Im not saying its set in stone that hes not or shouldnt be mafia, but imo theres a small chance he is due to those odds. Tho anything is possible, we have no idea how Ankeli distributed the roles.

 

[Crowd Control]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

A hypothetical question for you CC, if you were anti-town would you want a lynch today?

Why ask me this? Anyway, I haven't given it much thought actually. I am a firm believer that a lynch is what we should do. Also Ankeli has revealed that it will be hard, so pro-Townies might be a minority. In that case a lynch is the very best thing we can do, since it might have a good chance of succeeding. Telling roles upon mod-kill totally changes whom to lynch though. I would say lynch an 100% inactive player, but now I might switch to a semi-inactive player (haven't checked out who still have post or have posted little though).

I'm afraid you're correct in that we have to lynch someone.

There's nothing to be afraid about. Imo we should do this and I am willing to cast a vote this day. Otherwise it might be pretty hard to actually get the 9 votes.

@Turb: I checked about my accusation earlier about you possibly playing a noob card and it seems I mixed you up with IntelligentX. Sorry mate, for confusing.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Tho anything is possible, we have no idea how Ankeli distributed the roles.

http://random.org/lists/

 

[DLoveSwe]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

no, it just seemed a little fishy to me. i mean, he only talked about a cop. he could've added other roles to his sentence (like, "a save from the doc" or, "someone getting role-blocked" ya know, whatever else). instead he only suggested a cop. it could've been coincidence or the first thing that popped in his head as an example, but sometimes people try and be sly as to telling us something no one will catch but is right there in our face (translation: "i just said im a cop when it's sounding like im saying it as an example. maybe no one will catch that." )

I think your making to much of it besides, as SiTro said it's not a very bright move to highlight that fact.

On the matter of lynch vs no-lynch I wholeheartedly think lynch is the way to go, lynching and voting are our tools for information.

I'm gonna do a re-read and see if anythings sticks out. We need to start pressuring people.

BTW, Where's Noodle?

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

BTW, Where's Noodle?

I'm not quite sure, he's been absent (although I think I've seen him log on in the past few days) for a while now.

Last Activity: Yesterday 19:53, my time, so he's active.

Maybe something's up, I'll try to get in touch with him after d1 has passed if he hasn't showed his face.

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Sitro, i was mafia two rounds, and last round ended up a townie. I think the same would apply to Luda. Im not saying its set in stone that hes not or shouldnt be mafia, but imo theres a small chance he is due to those odds. Tho anything is possible, we have no idea how Ankeli distributed the roles.

the fact that someone was mafia/townie last round has nothing to do with the chance of them being mafia this round.
I'll try to explain this with a flipped coin
say heads is H and tails is T
the chance to flip a coin in the order:
HHHHHHHHHHT
is exactly as big as the chance to flip it in the order
HHHHHHHHHHH
so even if the first 10 flips were head, the 11th one has a 50-50 shot of being either heads or tails.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

the fact that someone was mafia/townie last round has nothing to do with the chance of them being mafia this round.
I'll try to explain this with a flipped coin
say heads is H and tails is T
the chance to flip a coin in the order:
HHHHHHHHHHT
is exactly as big as the chance to flip it in the order
HHHHHHHHHHH
so even if the first 10 flips were head, the 11th one has a 50-50 shot of being either heads or tails.

That might be true wiked, but in my book under the Odds category, i still think its very unprobabile.
PS: this is gonna look bad for me if Luda does indeed turn out mafia.

 

[Orphan]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

Why ask me this?

Random, anyone I would have asked would have probably responded with the same question. So if you think a lynch is the way to go, what do you think is the best way to decide who to lynch?

then it seems like our best bet is to lynch an "i'm stayin below the rader muhahaha" player.

I don't think we gain much from lynching in inactive person. If they get modkilled then Ankeli is going to release their role anyway, and it's my belief that an inactive person is probably a plain townie, since a person with a power role might be more interested in remaining active.

Of course, if there's someone who is barely active enough to avoid inactivity status, but yet not active enough to be of use to a town, then that's a different story.

So if you do indeed want to lynch a "below the radar" player, who would it be?

 

[Orphan]

Re: Forum Mafia: Keep your friends close...

I'd like to see this question answer by you as well Orphan (perhaps after CC did)

I'm not sure to be honest. If I were an anti-town role then it would depend on the role I was given. If I were a mafia type role that had multiple people in my group then I might not want a lynch today. If, however, I were an SK equivalent role (if it exists in this game) then a lynch would probably be favorable.

As a pro-town player, I would prefer a lynch that is as far from random as possible to be honest.