1.13 RoF Superchest Patterns
- Thread starter Pb_pal1
- Start date
I would like to say that both Jah and Cham could spawn if there is a pattern. To show you the exact parts of data responsible:
Act 4 (H) Chest C nodrop 100 gld 15 Act 4 (H) Junk 15 Act 4 (H) Equip B 10 Act 4 (H) Good 2
Act 4 (H) has 14/130 chance of selecting runes 16, which translates to: r31 (Jah) 3 r32 (Cham) 2 Runes 15 3957
If we do some maths here and assume 1/3 of all chests drop a act 4 (H) good drop we find 21845 patterns. From all those patterns 14/130 drop runes 16 we have 2352 patterns that drop a rune. The chance of a Cham is 2/3962 and the chance of a Jah is 3/3962. This gives 1.18 Cham patterns and 1.78 Jah patterns. I believe these value's are both true for players 6 and 8. This also explains our bad luck at players 8 because there is a 25% chance no Jah or Cham patterns exist and a 6,25% chance neither exist if we would start blanco.
Since I believe 60% of all paterns is known on p8 that would mean we have only 40% of 2352 left which is 940 patterns. Doing the same maths with that number would result in 0.47 Cham patterns and 0.71 Jah Patterns meaning the chance of neither pattern existing on p8 is bigger than 50%.
Verdict, we should run players 6
Act 4 (H) Chest C nodrop 100 gld 15 Act 4 (H) Junk 15 Act 4 (H) Equip B 10 Act 4 (H) Good 2
Act 4 (H) has 14/130 chance of selecting runes 16, which translates to: r31 (Jah) 3 r32 (Cham) 2 Runes 15 3957
If we do some maths here and assume 1/3 of all chests drop a act 4 (H) good drop we find 21845 patterns. From all those patterns 14/130 drop runes 16 we have 2352 patterns that drop a rune. The chance of a Cham is 2/3962 and the chance of a Jah is 3/3962. This gives 1.18 Cham patterns and 1.78 Jah patterns. I believe these value's are both true for players 6 and 8. This also explains our bad luck at players 8 because there is a 25% chance no Jah or Cham patterns exist and a 6,25% chance neither exist if we would start blanco.
Since I believe 60% of all paterns is known on p8 that would mean we have only 40% of 2352 left which is 940 patterns. Doing the same maths with that number would result in 0.47 Cham patterns and 0.71 Jah Patterns meaning the chance of neither pattern existing on p8 is bigger than 50%.
Verdict, we should run players 6
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Actually the best way to find Jah and Cham in the RoF is to pop poppables and kill creeps apparently.
Also I wish you would not discourage people from running p7/8. I'd much rather have a more complete p7/8 dataset than spending people's efforts to start up another setting that also won't be complete because when that get's half way done you'll start telling everyone that p3/4 is better odds. Collective effort is a capricious thing, I wish would could have a common goal for it.
@Brak Fact is as I explained in the post above at players 6 there is a ~55% chance of a cham pattern and a ~40 of 2!!! Jah patterns following the numbers 1.18 and 1.78. Personally I would far rather have a player setting with a confirmed Jah or Cham than a complete list pf players 8 from which it is nearly 60% that both Jah and Cham together don't exist. At such I suggest we should do a collective effort at players 6 instead of players 8.
Also personally as we already both confirmed at our poppable thread poppables aren't truncated and therefore not of any intrest. Our goal should be to hit a Jah or Cham superchest pattern instead of just farming hrs.
Sometimes it is as easy to say it is at this time nearly 80% certain players 6 gives more bang for your buck as players 8, exept you want Ohm runes ofcourse.
Therefore I think it is a good idea to set a new goal, to get players 6 complete rather than players 8.
If I make a list from what patterns could expect at players 6 and do a quick bit flawed math this is the (blanco) list:
Pul: 9.89 (~10)
Um: 6.52 (6-7)
Mal: 6.60 (6-7)
Ist: 4.40 (4-5)
Gul: 4.64 (4-5)
Vex: 3.10 (~3)
Ohm: 3.24 (~3)
Lo: 2.16 ( ~2)
Sur: 2.40 (2 to 3)
Ber: 1.60 (1 to 2)
Jah: 1.78 (~2)
Cham: 1.12 (~1)
Edit: I would like to state if a Jah or Cham on \p8 gets confirmed things change 180 degrees. At this point it is quite unlikely. Even if 1 pattern exists it would take 30k runs on avarage to hit that pattern, if I look at the blanco table there is a 3/30k chance of hitting Jah or Cham on players 6 instead of (0-1)/30K.
Also personally as we already both confirmed at our poppable thread poppables aren't truncated and therefore not of any intrest. Our goal should be to hit a Jah or Cham superchest pattern instead of just farming hrs.
Sometimes it is as easy to say it is at this time nearly 80% certain players 6 gives more bang for your buck as players 8, exept you want Ohm runes ofcourse.
Therefore I think it is a good idea to set a new goal, to get players 6 complete rather than players 8.
If I make a list from what patterns could expect at players 6 and do a quick bit flawed math this is the (blanco) list:
Pul: 9.89 (~10)
Um: 6.52 (6-7)
Mal: 6.60 (6-7)
Ist: 4.40 (4-5)
Gul: 4.64 (4-5)
Vex: 3.10 (~3)
Ohm: 3.24 (~3)
Lo: 2.16 ( ~2)
Sur: 2.40 (2 to 3)
Ber: 1.60 (1 to 2)
Jah: 1.78 (~2)
Cham: 1.12 (~1)
Edit: I would like to state if a Jah or Cham on \p8 gets confirmed things change 180 degrees. At this point it is quite unlikely. Even if 1 pattern exists it would take 30k runs on avarage to hit that pattern, if I look at the blanco table there is a 3/30k chance of hitting Jah or Cham on players 6 instead of (0-1)/30K.
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NorthDakota
Well-known member
Why do you talk about 6 and 8? I though 5 and 7 were the magic numbers and that there was no difference between 5 and 6, and 7 and 8 respectively.
Because habit, there is no difference. I did all my lower kurast runs at players 8 instead of 7, just because I am used to it.
Edit: could you @Brak and @Pb_pal do a test on how many chests drop a gem jewel or charm or rune so I could make a more accurate calculation as the one third is an estimate? Just count the chests that drop a gem, jewel, charm, (ring and amu). If they drop more than one item just count them as one. I'll do the same on players 6.
Edit: could you @Brak and @Pb_pal do a test on how many chests drop a gem jewel or charm or rune so I could make a more accurate calculation as the one third is an estimate? Just count the chests that drop a gem, jewel, charm, (ring and amu). If they drop more than one item just count them as one. I'll do the same on players 6.
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Fun fact, there were 47 HR patterns identified for 1.13c LK before the first of three Ber patterns was found. We were 33 patterns into the RoF before our first dropped.
I can try to keep track of Good drops, but it is very diffictult for me to see all gem drops. I'm highly likely to miss some.
I can try to keep track of Good drops, but it is very diffictult for me to see all gem drops. I'm highly likely to miss some.
@Brak that is np, its just an estimate because I expect the value to be higher than 33% expecially on players 8 At players 6 I am currently at 57/150 but I'll test to 650 chests to have 1% of the patterns even I will miss several gems. I already missed a rune aswell, pressed esc too fast. Fun fact indeed with the Ber and aigainst all odds. Maybe we need that luck to confirm the 2 Jah's that theoretically could exist!
Slightly oftopic: Still it is rather weird that I confirmed both Jah and Cham at my variant within 4k runs (24000 chests) at players 8 and we get nothing on vanilla. I confirmed 24 patterns at that test, including a rune that is 5 times more rare as a Jah and 1.5 times more rare than a Zod. I even matched both the Jah and Cham pattern in that test!! It all comes down to luck...
Slightly oftopic: Still it is rather weird that I confirmed both Jah and Cham at my variant within 4k runs (24000 chests) at players 8 and we get nothing on vanilla. I confirmed 24 patterns at that test, including a rune that is 5 times more rare as a Jah and 1.5 times more rare than a Zod. I even matched both the Jah and Cham pattern in that test!! It all comes down to luck...
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Okay I was really bored today so I upgraded my flawed calculation into a new model for both players 6 and players 8. @Brak seems to be more right as I initially thought. I have used all the data from the lowerkurast running and treasureclass.txt and taken into account chests can drop multiple times the "good"drop. At this point players 8 doesn't have to be worse as players 6 according to my data. Fact is at players 6 the number of "good"drops is anywhere between 30-42% and that is a HUGE difference as seen in my calculation. Also as you can see the player 8 blanco is nearly the same as what is confirmed at lower kurast (Exept we are very lucky with the Surs there!!!)
I also included a virtual pattern chart just for fun at players 8 and yes Jah and Cham could still realistically appear as shown! Fun fact: acording to my calculations 37009 chest patterns are unidentified, that means nearly 20k of runs have been done (assuming a 2 chest map). PB_Pal and Brak did quite a large job it seems, well done!
Be sure to click at the excel sceenshot to see the numbers!
View attachment 3491
I also included a virtual pattern chart just for fun at players 8 and yes Jah and Cham could still realistically appear as shown! Fun fact: acording to my calculations 37009 chest patterns are unidentified, that means nearly 20k of runs have been done (assuming a 2 chest map). PB_Pal and Brak did quite a large job it seems, well done!
Be sure to click at the excel sceenshot to see the numbers!
View attachment 3491
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Blanco means a zero value, the patterns you would expect if you haven't done any ROF run. The expected value is a mathimatical entry, which means for example if I would flip 20 coins I would expect to have 10 heads and 10 teals ( In reality it might be 13 teal vs 7 heads or any other configuration). The blanco value is in this context the expected value when I haven't flipped a single coin.
At the ROF pattens we have flipped ~40% (37 patterns at a potential pool of ~83 patterns) of the coins, in my example 8 and lets say 5 of them are teal and 3 are head and 12 are unflipped. That means the expected value over all 20 coins is now 11 teals (5 and 50% of 12 unflipped) and 9 heads (3 and 50% unfipped). I used the same principle at that model. If we somehow get 65536 new patterns the blanco pattern list is the list you expect the Pul+ patterns to be distributed.
Hope this makes things a bit clear, feel free to ask otherwise.
At the ROF pattens we have flipped ~40% (37 patterns at a potential pool of ~83 patterns) of the coins, in my example 8 and lets say 5 of them are teal and 3 are head and 12 are unflipped. That means the expected value over all 20 coins is now 11 teals (5 and 50% of 12 unflipped) and 9 heads (3 and 50% unfipped). I used the same principle at that model. If we somehow get 65536 new patterns the blanco pattern list is the list you expect the Pul+ patterns to be distributed.
Hope this makes things a bit clear, feel free to ask otherwise.
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I have been trying to make some runs on RoF p7 these last few days and I am really struggling opening the chest every time I boot because the area is full of tough mobs more than 50% of the time, I find myself having to abort a run to not die with my sorceress.
Does anyone else uses a sorceress to do this ? Are there good budget builds otherwise that make it easier ?
thanks for all inputs
Does anyone else uses a sorceress to do this ? Are there good budget builds otherwise that make it easier ?
thanks for all inputs
At the start I used a super budget assassin to do the runs. Harmony bow on main for the Vigor aura, 2x +3 Shadow disciplines claws on switch to buff Burst of Speed, with the rest of the gear also centered around FRW. The claws are not necessary, but easy enough to shop at Hell Anya.
Basically you pre-buff BoS, switch back to Harmony and run to the chests. Throw up a Cloak of Shadows once you get there and loot the chests while all the monsters stand around. If monsters are blocking the chests, Mind Blast to knock them back (as long as they aren't bosses). You won't be able to get the chests 100% of the time, but it's pretty close. I had a 4-5% abort rate, but usually I managed to get one of the two chests before aborting. Her run times averaged ~14.5 seconds, although this is pretty much just hitting the chests, checking for orange, and S+E. Those numbers are from 5000 runs, so it's a fair representation.
The one problem with this method (versus say, a barb who can howl monsters away) is that you have to be pretty quick nabbing the runes, and there isn't a ton of time to hand around grabbing all the other goodies like charms and gems etc.
I bet you could do an Enigma-less barb pretty easily using the same tactics (Harmony, FRW items). Just run in, howl everything away, profit. I haven't actually tried that, but I don't see why it wouldn't work. You could even respec to pump Increased Speed to really get his feet moving. He'd be safer, and could probably hang around longer at the chests looting for extra stuff.
Lots of ways to do it, just need to get a bit creative sometimes.
