How can you differentiate between recruitment and an alternate hypothesis of "one player of each name started the game as mafia" without lynching each and every player with the same first name? How many days will it take to confirm the recruitment theory? Under what situation? How many days will it take to deny the recruitment theory? Under what situation?
The signal to noise ratio is far too low to get a good reads thus far today. I'm left with falling back on the names I mentioned yesterday but if someone new pops up I'll be sure and let you know.
Which Harry do you suspect most? Which Ted?
How many days? To get a mafia, it could take one, it could take 7. How many days does regular scum hunting take to get mafia? 1? 4? 8? Who knows until we lynch somebody, right?
Who do I suspect the most? I haven't gone through my "lets find this guy" analysis yet. A few, including yourself, have popped up to me like one of those pop-up-books. I always look forward to your findings, no matter what side you play on, you 'play' town.
Assume 5 Harry's. One is dead. We lynch the remaining 4 - lets say we get one mafia from them. We lose 3 townies, and what do we know? Do we know there is recruitment? Do we know there is one mafia of each person? How would we tell the difference? I don't see how lynching this way gets more info on game setup than scum hunting. And it seems to me that it is likely to be slower than scumhunting.
We may
not lose 3 townies. If we lynch a Harry and he pops scum, then stop lynching the Harry's. I thought that was obvious. Sorry for not making that clear.
We don't know there is recruitment. We don't know if one of each person/characterName is mafia. We don't know anything. I gave a path we could follow. A path that isn't completely random. A path that makes some sort of sense, to me at least. The sense being that people have suspected that whoever entered the sphere turned mafia. I don't believe that anyone thought that everyone with that particular name turned scum, but only one. That's where I'm going with the "Lynch all the Harry's." I mean "Lynch til we find scum." If it takes 3 days, then so be it.
What else are we going to do?
(Hypothetical situation coming up.)
Say we listen to OMG. OMG is scum. We don't know that. (Remember, hypothetical.) OMG says thefranklin is scum because of posts 573, 277, and 656. Everyone agrees. Ok, thefranklin is lynched. thefranklin is town.
-1town -1day.
We lynch OMG. OMG is scum.
-1town -1mafia -2day.
CG says that coju is scum because of posts 333 and 444. coju is lynched. coju is town.
-2town -1 mafia -3day.
CG gets lynched. CG is town.
-3town -1 mafia -4day.
We see a pattern here? It happens each and every game. Yes, there is scumhunting in between. Yes, thefranklin and coju looked scummy because of those posts. But what happened? What did we really figure out? (Yes, I'm not figuring in night actions and all of that, but you get the picture.) No matter what route we go, there is [highlight]NO[/highlight] way to tell if scum-hunting or lynching characters til we get mafia is going to be better or go faster.
Scum-hunting is seemingly random. This game isn't a normal mafia game. Going after characters until we hit a mafia isn't random. The only thing random about it is who gets chosen first. Ted has entered. Harry has entered. I'm saying we start there. If the consensus isn't to do that, then fine.
That's a good point. If one of each character is mafia, it will make the end of game scumhunting much easier. Almost trivial. Hmmmm. That almost guarantees the setup isn't 1 mafia of each name.
It's still possible not claiming a name was a contributing factor for target choice. All those claims and no power roles...
underlined part is the saying the same thing, isn't it? And if you do think and agree with what you just said, it is exactly what I've been saying... One mafia per name, one of each character is mafia...
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