Mass Effect Mystery Box Mafia Game
- Thread starter Sathoris
- Start date
Holding kills seems like a very reasonable play. Right now there are two obvious information sources, drixx and myself. Our entire understanding of the current situation comes from information we both provided, that cant be verified in any way other than by lynching us. If town decides to spend the time lynches one of us, the sk is brought much closer to winning. Drixx lynch, we learn than zokar and i arent sks, but that doesnt mean im not scum. Lynch me, we learn that im not scum and laarz is dead, but we dont know if drixx is the sk. If we assume drixx and i are both telling the truth, were guaranteed to catch the sk, because it must be either pyro or BA, and we have two lynches(unless he has extra shots)...but the alternate path of lynching drixx or myself is very viable as well, and likely what the sk is relying on. If we dont lynch someone today, and they kill someone tonight, new, previously unseen flavor means sk could be amyone. Eject flavor means its me. Incineration flavor means its me or drixx, as scum, not a sk.
With all that said, i think we have to lynch someone today, again. Mainly because im sure drixx is town, so that means if we dont lynch someone today, well have a 1/4 chance of hitting him tomorrow, if you dont believe drixx. We could no lynch two days in a row, and that brings it up to a 1/3...the composition of those 3 might give us a better chance of finding scum, but thats no different than lynching today, and seeing who they kill tonight, except well get to direct one of the kills in that case.
With all that said, i think we have to lynch someone today, again. Mainly because im sure drixx is town, so that means if we dont lynch someone today, well have a 1/4 chance of hitting him tomorrow, if you dont believe drixx. We could no lynch two days in a row, and that brings it up to a 1/3...the composition of those 3 might give us a better chance of finding scum, but thats no different than lynching today, and seeing who they kill tonight, except well get to direct one of the kills in that case.
So you are fairly confident we have a SK still then?
No ragrets, not even a single letter about basically forcing the Noodle kill yesterday?
- Apr 8, 2006
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Something feels really off about this post. Four people voted for Noodle yesterday, and Zokar was the one who made the most case. All Numbers said was that he was pretty firm on the vote, and he said so after Zokar made the case about the Jester claim being a cover. You also made a point to complain about people who weren't voting, then placed the lynching vote (allowing Pyro to lock).
In the end of the game, voting quickly is a bad thing. I saw no compelling reason to believe that there wouldn't be a Jester role in the game, and so I saw no compelling case against Noodle. Noodle took over for BPC and BPC claimed the Jester ability ridiculously early to be playing this long of a con. I just didn't see it and therefore didn't vote it.
But you are taking advantage of the opportunity to dirty everyone else in the game up for some reason. You're blaming Numbers for a mislynch when it was really Zokar making the strong push on Noodle. You went along with the train but then complained about the people not voting, even though your vote was the lynching one and there was no need for Pyro or me to vote, although Pyro did decide to lock.
I think that for me the most likely remaining non-town element is either you or Pyro. You both are capable of playing the long con quite well. You had what looks in hindsight like a pretty manufactured squabble with Caluin Graye earlier in the game.
Whatever is going on at the end of this game is odd, and I can only think of a few reasons why the game might still be going on:
1.) 1 scum still alive. Feels well hidden and is hoping to strike at the right time for the win.
2.) An SK is in the game (Pyro or Bad Ash, unless the box was used by Zokar after I investigated him, which seems unlikely)
3.) A neutral that requires a certain death is in the game. A survivor would win when all killing roles are gone, so a survivor wouldn't keep the game going like this. A role that has to lynch a specific person though ... that could be in play.
The problem I'm running into thinking this through is that all I know for sure is that Numbers and Zokar weren't SK at the time I investigated them. I can't even be sure either of them are town, although Numbers has played a super town game. From past experience in our group, I'd be inclined to go after Pyro or Bad Ash right now, with Zokar just behind them and Numbers coming in as least likely scum.
But numbers knows me really well and he knows how I think from years of day to day strategy gaming together. He could be the wolf in sheep's clothing.
Honestly, I cannot figure out who to vote for. Numbers' game feels almost "too perfect" in the way that CG's game was catching my attention. He gave us the info about people being able to change alignment, which seemed like a very townie play. He also immediately took credit for the extra kill ... but if he was scum that could have been planned. Everything about the way he's played seems honest, but this whole situation feels off.
@Sathoris - I've re-read this game and thought more about vote patterns and what people have said and how they've said it and interactions than I have in a LONG time. If your intention was to shake us out of the reliance upon power roles to find scum, I think you succeeded. The problem is that it's really hard to put the puzzle together when you don't even know how many pieces are missing.
- Apr 8, 2006
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You're like 99.9% of the way to a vote from me now. Five people alive now means a no-lynch followed by a kill tonight means a mafia or SK just needs to avoid the lynch tomorrow to win. You are advocating that the last hiding anti-town player only have to dodge the vote once instead of twice. That's very close to being an outright anti-town approach.
Numbers forced the lynch on Noodle for me personally. That's just the truth. I had no intention of voting for him, but when he said he wasn't changing his vote I didn't have a choice if I personally wanted to vote someone for a lynch. I wouldn't have voted for him if I didnt think there was any chance he'd be the last scum/neutral, so blame is not 100%, however stating that you are not changing your vote is bullying the town into agreeing with you (subjective you, not you personally). Not sure how you are seeing that differently drixx.
btw I wasn't talking to you, I am looking for a response from numbers. It was a direct question to him and you jump in and plant a WOT skewing my question with your opinion giving numbers a chance to say "THIS" or something similar as opposed to answering for himself which could have revealed something. Thanks.
btw I wasn't talking to you, I am looking for a response from numbers. It was a direct question to him and you jump in and plant a WOT skewing my question with your opinion giving numbers a chance to say "THIS" or something similar as opposed to answering for himself which could have revealed something. Thanks.
That's fine. By lynching anybody, you're playing into their hand. I refuse. I'm calling the bluff.
- Apr 8, 2006
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You haven't done your math. With 5 of us left, right now we can mislynch, have a night kill and still have a LYLO last chance to town win. That gives the town players left two shots at getting what is (presumably) the last scum dead. Being passive and doing a no-lynch today allows them to kill tonight and then the town can make the choice on who dies once more. The only power the town has is lynching, and so it therefore follows that the only hands we play into by refusing to lynch is the remaining scum.
You're right, I did not actually do the math ><
You're right, withholding a lynch today is decidedly bad ><
Guess I'll be voting after all *sigh*
Yeah. Not lynching could have been strongly argued for yesterday, because it would have only cost us 1/3, rather than 1/2, lynches.
To answer whoever asked: Yes, if there is a killing role left in the game, and the game continuing isn't caused by some unique role, I'm certain that role is a SK. Again, that's only because I believe Drixx, I know we've killed 3 scum, and I don't see 4 scum+sk possibility being reasonable to expect.
With that said, given the combination of my belief in drixx's alignment, and my own knowledge, I believe the only options for lynching are BA and Pyro. I would be happy with lynching either of them today. I would also be content with lynching drixx if the town decides they don't believe him on the serial killer situation, but I think that would be a very bad way to play this.
- Apr 8, 2006
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If killing me today is the only consensus, then the town will gain the knowledge that Numbers wasn't the SK the night following his claim of the extra kill and that zokar was not the SK two nights later. That will be confirmed by my flip.
If we're going to kill someone among me, numbers and zokar, then I think Numbers is the biggest upside. A lot of our assumptions hinge on whether he was telling the truth about Laarz or not. If we conjecture that the scum team had or gained an extra kill, that would just as easily explain why Numbers was ready to take credit the moment that day started. For most of the game, I've operated under the assumption that it is more likely he really got a vigilante 2-shot and really killed a scum; however, that's an Occam's Razor assumption, and OR doesn't always work in our mafia games.
Numbers is probably right but I'm still stick where I was previously. I would very much like to see what Zokar, Pyro and Bad Ash all think before making a move.
If we're going to kill someone among me, numbers and zokar, then I think Numbers is the biggest upside. A lot of our assumptions hinge on whether he was telling the truth about Laarz or not. If we conjecture that the scum team had or gained an extra kill, that would just as easily explain why Numbers was ready to take credit the moment that day started. For most of the game, I've operated under the assumption that it is more likely he really got a vigilante 2-shot and really killed a scum; however, that's an Occam's Razor assumption, and OR doesn't always work in our mafia games.
Numbers is probably right but I'm still stick where I was previously. I would very much like to see what Zokar, Pyro and Bad Ash all think before making a move.
- Apr 8, 2006
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Specifically ... I really want to know why Zokar went from basically convinced the last scum was Noodle or Bad Ash yesterday to trying to argue us into a no lynch today, and completely dropping off of Bad Ash.
From Pyro I would like a convincing reason why we shouldn't just look at your multiple scum team wins and the way you are staying out of the fray and do the 2+2=scum math on you.
From Bad Ash, I'm not sure what. You've been engaged in the game the whole time, but mostly making mini cases against people. I don't recall you making a game-wide case against anyone. Maybe if you have the time, some thoughts on everyone remaining from you would be helpful? You're one of the better players in our meta so if anyone is gonna spot the remaining scum with a re-read, it might be you.
From Pyro I would like a convincing reason why we shouldn't just look at your multiple scum team wins and the way you are staying out of the fray and do the 2+2=scum math on you.
From Bad Ash, I'm not sure what. You've been engaged in the game the whole time, but mostly making mini cases against people. I don't recall you making a game-wide case against anyone. Maybe if you have the time, some thoughts on everyone remaining from you would be helpful? You're one of the better players in our meta so if anyone is gonna spot the remaining scum with a re-read, it might be you.
Well, yes, but Drixx, if after today we refuse to lynch anyone(which, btw, we should do, if there are no further kills), then the flavor of the kill the scum will eventually be forced to make will confirm the situation for us. If it's an incineration kill, then I lied about laarz being scum, and am therefore scum, and you can lynch me. If it's a non incineration kill, then we know there's an SK, but we DON'T know that that SK isn't you. The kill flavor will give the town all the information they need about me, but it won't tell them anything about you. That's the main reason why I'd suggest you over me, other than the obvious. I still think lynching either of us is a very bad call though.
And yes, there are other scenarios which are possible. I could have lied about my first box, and have an entirely different kill flavor to use, among other possibilities. But among those things which seem likely, I think my death is least likely to gain town anything they won't gain by simply sitting on 4 living until the killer makes a kill.
I'm going to catch up now, based on my quick of the few posts there were though I think I'm going to make a summary sheet of possible scenarios to see which is the most likely at least in my eyes.
Withholding kills does not sound like a reasonable play to me except in one scenario, but I'll go into that when I make my summary post. I do however agree that we should lynch someone today, not doing so only hinders us.
Really long drixx post.
Pretty much drixx all of the possible reasons that you listed for why the game is continuing are possible, and Bad Ash seems to have been consistently scummy throughout the game, in fact I was pretty convinced he was scum when he was just throwing things at the wall to see if anything would stick. I'm not 100% confident in anyone right now though as there is all very good potential for any one of the remaining players to be scum.
My locking vote was hardly necessary as Noodle would have been lynched regardless. Do I believe it was the best lynch path? No, but a no lynch with the possibility of night kills still showing up and numbers "firm" vote pretty much didn't leave us much room.
This is a terrible idea as explained by the others.
So you are saying that you really don't want anything from me except to explain my past game history and why that is not the case right now? Piece of cake. :dopey:
But seriously. Other than the fact that since I started my new job I haven't been able to make many substantial posts during working hours I would hardly call what I have been doing "staying out of the fray". I've probably been more active in this game than many of the recent games and if I wanted to "stay out of the fray" I definitely know how to do that, this is not it.
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