Why would the last remaining scum be forced to kill? Maybe the town would be forced to lynch? I wonder what would happen in this situation. I don't think it has ever happened before.
Mass Effect Mystery Box Mafia Game
- Thread starter Sathoris
- Start date
Why would the last remaining scum be forced to kill? Maybe the town would be forced to lynch? I wonder what would happen in this situation. I don't think it has ever happened before.
Please excuse the Drixx length post...
Alright let’s do this, first off let’s lay out some assumptions:
- 1 scum left
- This scum is either a mafia or SK, which is still unknown
- Working under the assumption of 1 scum left, it is assumed that all other players are telling the truth (obvious). Pretty much I want to make this clear that if for some reason there are 4 scum + SK possibility then this is all pretty much worthless anyway.
Numbers – Cleared by Drixx as not the SK, under the assumption of one scum that means that he can only possibly be mafia by lying about Laarz’s alignment. Withholding kills would be a requirement of him meeting his win con because if another incineration kill were to be revealed he would be the first to the chopping block. Drixx having investigated him for being a SK puts him in a more “comfortable” position since he could try to ride Drixx’s investigation result to the end.
Drixx – Could potentially be the SK by claiming SK cop, claiming results on other players builds confidence and support from the players that he “investigated” (You can’t tell me that if you are investigated by someone you don’t have a little more leeway for them). Could be mafia or SK, but why withhold the kill if he is mafia? If he is the SK he may be withholding to try and perpetuate the possibility of there being a mafia member remaining as it draws the focus away from finding a SK.
Zokar – Cleared by Drixx as not the SK, once again under the assumption of one scum that means he can only possibly be mafia. If he is in fact mafia, what is there to stop him from performing the kill? Numbers would most likely be lynched so he has nothing to lose. Only possibility for SK is being investigated and then using the SK box (unlikely as Drixx said).
Bad Ash/Pyro – I’m lumping the both of us together because we are pretty much in the same boat, neither of us have been investigated by Drixx. We could both possibly be mafia or SK, but once again why withhold kills if we are mafia? Why withhold kills if we are the SK for that matter, since neither of us have been investigated, killing off people would benefit us the most.
In summary:
If there is only one scum left and it’s a mafia (that’s not Numbers), they really have no reason to withhold a kill. The only thing this does is cause confusion, but in my opinion cutting down the number of mislynches needed seems much more beneficial than a little confusion. Especially since this will pretty much mean an auto lynch of Numbers. Only possibility is saving it for the last possible night/day phase to give themselves an easy win but on the assumption that they could have already had 2 night kills already from when CG was lynched. Why would you do that?
If there is only one scum left and it’s a SK. Once again, no real reason to withhold a kill. They would have had to withhold the kill for the entirety of the game and let the scum do all the work. Even if we work on the assumption that they waited to see the scum kills stop, we should have at least seen a kill last night. That would have brought it down to 4 today, requiring only one mislynch for them to win.
Personal Opinion:
Based on all of the above, and my reads of the other players. I actually find Zokar the least likely to be the last remaining scum based on investigation and likely scenarios. The thing I don’t like about him the most is that he has had no significant contributions pretty much the entire game, and by pretty much I mean the entire game except for throwing/starting a random train on CG which he may not have even intended to do. From Bad Ash I’ve gotten a complete scum read the entire game, he has been all over the place and his cases (if you can call them that) are pretty sad. Drixx/Numbers both have the most to gain from withholding a kill (Numbers more so), but have the most town backing (Once again Numbers more so and I had Drixx tagged as scum most of the game) of the remaining players, I just can’t shake the feeling that we are being played by one of them though and its really starting to get to me.
Alright let’s do this, first off let’s lay out some assumptions:
- 1 scum left
- This scum is either a mafia or SK, which is still unknown
- Working under the assumption of 1 scum left, it is assumed that all other players are telling the truth (obvious). Pretty much I want to make this clear that if for some reason there are 4 scum + SK possibility then this is all pretty much worthless anyway.
Numbers – Cleared by Drixx as not the SK, under the assumption of one scum that means that he can only possibly be mafia by lying about Laarz’s alignment. Withholding kills would be a requirement of him meeting his win con because if another incineration kill were to be revealed he would be the first to the chopping block. Drixx having investigated him for being a SK puts him in a more “comfortable” position since he could try to ride Drixx’s investigation result to the end.
Drixx – Could potentially be the SK by claiming SK cop, claiming results on other players builds confidence and support from the players that he “investigated” (You can’t tell me that if you are investigated by someone you don’t have a little more leeway for them). Could be mafia or SK, but why withhold the kill if he is mafia? If he is the SK he may be withholding to try and perpetuate the possibility of there being a mafia member remaining as it draws the focus away from finding a SK.
Zokar – Cleared by Drixx as not the SK, once again under the assumption of one scum that means he can only possibly be mafia. If he is in fact mafia, what is there to stop him from performing the kill? Numbers would most likely be lynched so he has nothing to lose. Only possibility for SK is being investigated and then using the SK box (unlikely as Drixx said).
Bad Ash/Pyro – I’m lumping the both of us together because we are pretty much in the same boat, neither of us have been investigated by Drixx. We could both possibly be mafia or SK, but once again why withhold kills if we are mafia? Why withhold kills if we are the SK for that matter, since neither of us have been investigated, killing off people would benefit us the most.
In summary:
If there is only one scum left and it’s a mafia (that’s not Numbers), they really have no reason to withhold a kill. The only thing this does is cause confusion, but in my opinion cutting down the number of mislynches needed seems much more beneficial than a little confusion. Especially since this will pretty much mean an auto lynch of Numbers. Only possibility is saving it for the last possible night/day phase to give themselves an easy win but on the assumption that they could have already had 2 night kills already from when CG was lynched. Why would you do that?
If there is only one scum left and it’s a SK. Once again, no real reason to withhold a kill. They would have had to withhold the kill for the entirety of the game and let the scum do all the work. Even if we work on the assumption that they waited to see the scum kills stop, we should have at least seen a kill last night. That would have brought it down to 4 today, requiring only one mislynch for them to win.
Personal Opinion:
Based on all of the above, and my reads of the other players. I actually find Zokar the least likely to be the last remaining scum based on investigation and likely scenarios. The thing I don’t like about him the most is that he has had no significant contributions pretty much the entire game, and by pretty much I mean the entire game except for throwing/starting a random train on CG which he may not have even intended to do. From Bad Ash I’ve gotten a complete scum read the entire game, he has been all over the place and his cases (if you can call them that) are pretty sad. Drixx/Numbers both have the most to gain from withholding a kill (Numbers more so), but have the most town backing (Once again Numbers more so and I had Drixx tagged as scum most of the game) of the remaining players, I just can’t shake the feeling that we are being played by one of them though and its really starting to get to me.
First of all I am not even close to convinced we have a SK left. If we did, they would 100% be killing. Pyro would be killing and I would be killing. That's just the truth. All the boxes are opened (it seems) so why hold back? If the SK killed the last two nights, we are in lylo, but instead the "SK" wants to give the town an extra chance at lynching him? BS.
Numbers was not pounding his chest for a SK and admitted they might be scum, but this is the right play for me.
-If numbers had a second shot he'd be dead. The mafia would have 0 idea if his shot was expended during a roleblock let alone if he used it during a roleblock
-It's been pretty obvious there haven't been any doc saves or jailkeeps or if there were they were long dead. This supports options 1.
-numbers play is extremely similar to CG. Claim one thing, act another, claim yet another thing and act another (the two vigilante kills, plus laarz being scum)
I'm sure there is more, but that's all I got right now.
TBH I have no idea what I want to do as I could make a case for everyone.
I will say that I'd like pyro to point out examples of me "throwing things at a wall hoping they'll stick" (outside of this post that is!)
Also, I was all over CG and Ankeli at various points in this game. Not sure how I am on anyones scum list. If we have a SK left, it's drixx or pyro, period. If we have scum left I see 4 people who it could be.
Numbers was not pounding his chest for a SK and admitted they might be scum, but this is the right play for me.
-If numbers had a second shot he'd be dead. The mafia would have 0 idea if his shot was expended during a roleblock let alone if he used it during a roleblock
-It's been pretty obvious there haven't been any doc saves or jailkeeps or if there were they were long dead. This supports options 1.
-numbers play is extremely similar to CG. Claim one thing, act another, claim yet another thing and act another (the two vigilante kills, plus laarz being scum)
I'm sure there is more, but that's all I got right now.
TBH I have no idea what I want to do as I could make a case for everyone.
I will say that I'd like pyro to point out examples of me "throwing things at a wall hoping they'll stick" (outside of this post that is!)
Also, I was all over CG and Ankeli at various points in this game. Not sure how I am on anyones scum list. If we have a SK left, it's drixx or pyro, period. If we have scum left I see 4 people who it could be.
Had a little time to reflect... and I have a feeling I'm going to be voting for Pyro... but am going to be distracted tonight.
Pyro: the entire argument you're making is the reason to withhold shots. A reasonable scenario to expect to play out would have been an instant lynch of me when we had no kill for the one night. Then, when I was revealed as town, they would shoot, and there would be a strong argument for a drixx lynch today, and that lynch would end the game. If not a drixx lynch, then there would at least be enough confusion about what information we could trust to allow them a 66% or greater chance of surviving today, and thus winning the game. When we didn't lynch me, and instead lynched noodle, that changed the situation. They couldn't shoot last night because it would exonerate me, and they don't want to decrease the number of people town is willing to lynch. I can understand that argument, but you're right in that it was probably a mistake for them to not shoot last night.
A shot last night put us at 4 right now, and diminishes the chance that town decides to lynch me. Assuming the person they shot wasn't drixx(because he's a good lynch candidate for the reasons you listed), and that town wouldn't lynch me, town would only have a 1/3 chance of lynching them today, so a 66% chance for him to win. The scenario we're in now is strictly worse for him, where town has a 20% chance of lynching him today, and a 25%-33% chance of lynching him tomorrow.
BA: I'm quite confused by your post. If I had a second shot I would be dead? How did you arrive at that conclusion? What is options 1, which is supported by the lack of doc saves or jailkeeps? Your third point...you're saying I claimed 2 shots, yet only used one, then claimed that laarz was scum, and then...acted another what? What is the right play you're talking about earlier in your post? Also, being all over CG or Ankeli does absolutely nothing to diminish the chance that you're a serial killer.
There are four scenarios in this game right now.
1) Someone else and myself are lying. I am scum, and withholding kills so town doesn't realize it. The other individual(who has 0 chance of being zokar) is withholding kills for a number of possible reasons that we have already gone through.
2) I'm lying and I am scum, and I'm withholding kills so town doesn't realize that I am the last scum.
3) Someone who isn't zokar or myself is a serial killer.
4) The game had 4 scum, and nobody opened the sk box. Seems very unlikely because as pyro said, anybody not myself who used an incineration kill would basically get a free kill on me as well. But, still possible that there is a fourth mafia somewhere.
A shot last night put us at 4 right now, and diminishes the chance that town decides to lynch me. Assuming the person they shot wasn't drixx(because he's a good lynch candidate for the reasons you listed), and that town wouldn't lynch me, town would only have a 1/3 chance of lynching them today, so a 66% chance for him to win. The scenario we're in now is strictly worse for him, where town has a 20% chance of lynching him today, and a 25%-33% chance of lynching him tomorrow.
BA: I'm quite confused by your post. If I had a second shot I would be dead? How did you arrive at that conclusion? What is options 1, which is supported by the lack of doc saves or jailkeeps? Your third point...you're saying I claimed 2 shots, yet only used one, then claimed that laarz was scum, and then...acted another what? What is the right play you're talking about earlier in your post? Also, being all over CG or Ankeli does absolutely nothing to diminish the chance that you're a serial killer.
There are four scenarios in this game right now.
1) Someone else and myself are lying. I am scum, and withholding kills so town doesn't realize it. The other individual(who has 0 chance of being zokar) is withholding kills for a number of possible reasons that we have already gone through.
2) I'm lying and I am scum, and I'm withholding kills so town doesn't realize that I am the last scum.
3) Someone who isn't zokar or myself is a serial killer.
4) The game had 4 scum, and nobody opened the sk box. Seems very unlikely because as pyro said, anybody not myself who used an incineration kill would basically get a free kill on me as well. But, still possible that there is a fourth mafia somewhere.
A second note about 4, and the really the main reason why I included it. In that scenario, Drixx can be the sk or scum, and thus neither zokar nor myself are above suspicion. Again, it still seems very unlikely, but that's where we're at I think.
Ask and you shall receive! Also, this post only throws things at Numbers as far as I'm aware.
These two posts were one right after the other after the start of the day a couple phases back.
Nice job avoiding the question Drixx asked completely. If I didn't think you were by my scenarios the least likely to be the last scum you would have earned my vote with today's posts alone.
My assumptions are based on the fact that if there was only a SK left, that they would have targeted you for the kill last night. Since the new kill flavor would be revealed, you are correct, you would be highly unlikely to be lynched at that point, and killing you last night would have put us in the same situation as lynching you yesterday instead of Noodle. But, if they killed last night, that would have put us into Mylo instead of allowing us another day phase, so instead of having a 20% chance to lynch the SK today, and 25%-33% chance of lynching the SK tomorrow. The SK would only have to endure one 25% chance of lynch and then the game would be over (assuming we lynched someone in Mylo).
As ive said before, ill vote for pyro or ba. Cant lock anybody without BA swapping votes, so Pyro, but ill be here before day end and will change to ensure we get our two shots at hitting the wcum.
I've laid out all the scenarios, and the numbers just don't make sense for a SK to continue withholding their kills. It just doesn't. Numbers is even ignoring my response regarding the logic behind why killing last night for a SK could have only been beneficial for the SK and continues to only offer a vote possibility between Bad Ash and myself. I'm sure as **** that Numbers is our guy and I'll be surprised as hell if he isn't.
Vote: IWantToUseNumbersInMyName
Vote: IWantToUseNumbersInMyName
Doesn't day end in less than an hour? Where is Drixx, and what are you doing Zokar?
Are we really going to have a no lynch? I'll switch to bad ash if I absolutely have to make sure that we have a lynch, but I don't think he is our guy.
Are we really going to have a no lynch? I'll switch to bad ash if I absolutely have to make sure that we have a lynch, but I don't think he is our guy.
Pyro, I said in the last line of the first paragraph my last long post, which you quoted, that I agreed with you that them withholding kills was likely a mistake. I was just offering up the scenarios wherein withholding a kill made sense. I also said I'd be willing to vote for drixx originally, I just thought it would be a mistake.
*sigh* Unvote: Pyro
Vote: Bad Ash
like I said, I'll vote either way. We need a lynch today though regardless of whether I agree with it or not. Here's hoping drixx shows up and casts the deciding vote. If he doesn't and nobody swaps, I have no idea what I'll do. I feel like I should vote for myself in that scenario to ensure town isn't left debating over me again tomorrow.
Oh, okay. Well never mind then.
Unvote: Bad Ash
Just going to remind you all that this is the *exact* reason why someone would withhold kills.
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