The Most Extreme Elimination Challenge Mafia Edition

[Goryani]

Thoughts on what form a trap would take?

lynchproof
bomb
retribution kill like Zokar's
VI
messing with the kill flip somehow (showing someone else's infoz or showing made up infoz)
some sort of ability activated last night and only valid today
some sort of odd/even day thing
something I've never seen before

Unfortunately, I'm not seeing a way to avoid a trap. Some of the traps are better to trigger now rather than tomorrow. Some of the traps might not be a trap tomorrow. None can be detected before being sprung with the claimed roles still living (wonder if that's why CG was taken out).

And this may just be a big WIFOM play. A claim too scummy to be scum? Goldtru's claim is the kind that might make me a believer of such a thing. Almost.

 

[IWantToUseNumbersInMyName]

lynchproof
bomb
retribution kill like Zokar's
VI
messing with the kill flip somehow (showing someone else's infoz or showing made up infoz)
some sort of ability activated last night and only valid today
some sort of odd/even day thing
something I've never seen before

Unfortunately, I'm not seeing a way to avoid a trap. Some of the traps are better to trigger now rather than tomorrow. Some of the traps might not be a trap tomorrow. None can be detected before being sprung with the claimed roles still living (wonder if that's why CG was taken out).

And this may just be a big WIFOM play. A claim too scummy to be scum? Goldtru's claim is the kind that might make me a believer of such a thing. Almost.

Fair enough. One point though...if we had been paying closer attention, we could have known who goldtru was since the day we claimed, i believe. I'm pretty sure on that day goldtru said their only power they had to shout everything. Pretty sure we could have figured out captain tenneal as golds role as of that point.

Also: I don't think I've defended coju at all? I was actually trying to draw parallels between goldtru and coju, to ask jcakes why he would prefer to lynch coju over goldtru, given that they both claimed quite late and have been rather quiet.

 

[coju]

Funny, I seem to recall a couple Goldtru lynch attempts you weren't a part of.

And yes, I'm suspicious of the timing. Something doesn't add up. I'm not eager to blindly charge ahead and run into a trap.



For several days, I've thought Goldtru utterly lacking townie points. This late in the game, that means someone is scum. It's why I've voted Goldtru multiple times.

As you all know, I'm not the best of mafia players.
I'll even tell my strat: lurk until end game. There are too may players and posts for me to keep up in the beginning stages of the game. I do read all of the posts, but there is way too much information for me to keep up with. Towards the end of the game there are less people and posts, so it's easier for me to pay attention and figure out who is who. By this point in the game, players may have become comfortable/tired, and slip sometimes. Time for the closer-coju (think baseball) to come in full of energy to find this or find that.
Which, leads to this:

Also, I do agree with the event staff theory and have stated stuff previously, but something just seems very fishy. Numbers is defending coju, coju came out of the woodwork on gold, just all very fishy.

Goldtru flat out claimed the Cap'n T... I've finally found something, and no one seems to believe it. I'm very surprised more people don't see it. I reckon if she lives throughout this game, the next game I play I'm going to claim mafia, have no one believe me, and win the game.

Seriously guys? A trap? Maybe, yes, but when someone flat out claims what was claimed, do they not get lynched?
If goldtru flips town, I'll vote myself tomorrow.

 

[coju]

Re the late claims: remember Noodle hasn't claimed at all, due to personal play style.

 

[Bad Ash]

As you all know, I'm not the best of mafia players.
I'll even tell my strat: lurk until end game. There are too may players and posts for me to keep up in the beginning stages of the game. I do read all of the posts, but there is way too much information for me to keep up with. Towards the end of the game there are less people and posts, so it's easier for me to pay attention and figure out who is who. By this point in the game, players may have become comfortable/tired, and slip sometimes. Time for the closer-coju (think baseball) to come in full of energy to find this or find that.
Which, leads to this:


Goldtru flat out claimed the Cap'n T... I've finally found something, and no one seems to believe it. I'm very surprised more people don't see it. I reckon if she lives throughout this game, the next game I play I'm going to claim mafia, have no one believe me, and win the game.

Seriously guys? A trap? Maybe, yes, but when someone flat out claims what was claimed, do they not get lynched?
If goldtru flips town, I'll vote myself tomorrow.

So let me ask you this:

We have talked openly about all event staff possibly being anti-town. Would someone who is anti-town just come out and say they are in such a passive manner?*

*This implies Gold has read the posts and I have no proof that (s?)he has.

 

[coju]

So let me ask you this:

We have talked openly about all event staff possibly being anti-town. Would someone who is anti-town just come out and say they are in such a passive manner?*

*This implies Gold has read the posts and I have no proof that (s?)he has.

idk man. Maybe she missed it.
Even so, do you see where I'm coming from? If there were no "trap" would you be pushing for her lynch as well?

I must re-phrase my "voting myself": if her name is cap'n t and flips town, I'll vote myself.

Believe that Jcakes tried to defend gold and turn the vote towards me and numbers. Noodle was "on board" as well.
I must go for now, but if y'all don't remember that (10-20 posts back), I'll post those posts.

 

[Goryani]

No, but do you disagree with the point?

I have so many disagreements with your statement I don't even know where to begin.

Unless mafia started with 3 players or one died without a flip, I think there are 2 mafia left. 3 mafia left today would mean 5 mafia were alive during D4. D4 had 12 players. 5 mafia among 12 players is LYLO. I think a LYLO D4 does not result in a mafia modkill. It will play out VERY differently. Not 5 on D4 mafia means 4 or 3 to start. I tend toward 4 since the pattern of ~14 town vs ~2 neutral vs ~4 mafia in a 20 player game is a pretty good setup.

If Laarz was the hitman and no other mafia targeted anyone that night, then mafia might "just win" while we test the theory. Even with CG's kill, 2 mislynches (and 2 NKs after) to test the remaining 2 Drixx targeters would leave mafia with 2 vs 1.

If Laarz flipped hitman, I wouldn't give a free pass to a Drixx targeter. The contrapositive is also true. If Laarz doesn't flip hitman, I wouldn't give a free pass to a non-Drixx targeter.

Two mafia targeting Drixx would mean only one mafia among Gwaihir, Jcakes, Goldtru, coju and Noodle. Quite frankly, I find it unlikely that one and only one scum exists among Gwaihir, Jcakes, Goldtru, coju and Noodle. I think I might believe an un-PartyHostable mafia role (Ninja?) before I believe only one scum among them. OK, that may be a stretch, but not a big stretch.

There are more reasons but they are minor compared to the above and I'm tired.

 

[Goryani]

Also: I don't think I've defended coju at all? I was actually trying to draw parallels between goldtru and coju, to ask jcakes why he would prefer to lynch coju over goldtru, given that they both claimed quite late and have been rather quiet.

What is this in response to?

 

[Bad Ash]

idk man. Maybe she missed it.
Even so, do you see where I'm coming from? If there were no "trap" would you be pushing for her lynch as well?

I must re-phrase my "voting myself": if her name is cap'n t and flips town, I'll vote myself.

Believe that Jcakes tried to defend gold and turn the vote towards me and numbers. Noodle was "on board" as well.
I must go for now, but if y'all don't remember that (10-20 posts back), I'll post those posts.

Well I never said anything about a trap and don't see it TBH. I also could see a situation where the mafia need one more miss lynch to win.

I can see a Cakes + Gory and/or Gwaihir team as well, but you gotta play the cards you have and the numbers thing sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

Trying to start a lynch train on someone who didn't target Drixx is just ridiculous, no matter what the excuse.

 

[Bad Ash]

I'll open my big mouth, it was in response to me saying Numbers was defending Coju. "Defend" isn't quite the right word, but it's not necessarily wrong either. It's more of a trying to talk your way out of "Coju is scum" scenario and try to steer the talk in the other direction. Quoted below.

The only person who has claimed event staff this entire game was logoutzero, who proved to be a liar, and a member of the glory haulers(#821). If there actually is an mxc event staff team, it hasn't shown up in any of the flips. Also weird if there actually is such a team, that logoutzero successfully managed to conclude that such a team existed so he could claim to be on it.

coju: I feel quite strongly that goldtru is scum. Honestly, I don't feel that goryani is likely scum, and I know I'm not scum, so I feel pursuing the line of reasoning that concludes one of the two of us is scum will guarantee our loss.

You've laid your case out for me. Any particular reason why you believe coju is scum?

Even before that you were suspicious of him....and he also wasn't part of the previous train on goldtru. Other reasons, if any? I find him suspicious for the same reasons as goldtru, namely the very late claim with a role that seems to have no reason for him to not claim earlier.

What do you mean you didnt believe the gold train that much?

Coju: convinced. Lightning flipped as Guy Ledouche, and Laarz as Kenny Blankenship, the two hosts.

Vote: Goldtru

 

[Jcakes1]

Re the late claims: remember Noodle hasn't claimed at all, due to personal play style.

Noodle has claimed.

idk man. Maybe she missed it.
Even so, do you see where I'm coming from? If there were no "trap" would you be pushing for her lynch as well?

I must re-phrase my "voting myself": if her name is cap'n t and flips town, I'll vote myself.

Believe that Jcakes tried to defend gold and turn the vote towards me and numbers. Noodle was "on board" as well.
I must go for now, but if y'all don't remember that (10-20 posts back), I'll post those posts.

My reason for defending Gold is purely because I believe one or both of you and Numbers to be scum. You'll note that I started the train on Laarz yesterday who only just got lynched from a Gwaihir lock. Numbers admits to being around at day end but not voting for Laarz. Given how close we were yesterday to a mislynch I am pretty confident most (if not all) of the people on that train were town

Well I never said anything about a trap and don't see it TBH. I also could see a situation where the mafia need one more miss lynch to win.

I can see a Cakes + Gory and/or Gwaihir team as well, but you gotta play the cards you have and the numbers thing sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

Trying to start a lynch train on someone who didn't target Drixx is just ridiculous, no matter what the excuse.

@BA: If I was in a team with Gwaihir why would I just not vote for Gold yesterday? There was a semi train yet I spent a lot of effort trying to get town to lynch Laarz. I also highly doubt that Gwaihir is mafia given that he lynched / locked Laarz.

I agree that Gold looks scummy, my problem with a Gold lynch is that both Numbers and Coju are going after her and I suspect that atleast one if not both of them are scum. I may be giving somewhat of a free pass to people on Laarz's train, but it feels like it was so close to being mislynch that most if not all the people on that train are town.

 

[Bad Ash]

Noodle has claimed.



My reason for defending Gold is purely because I believe one or both of you and Numbers to be scum. You'll note that I started the train on Laarz yesterday who only just got lynched from a Gwaihir lock. Numbers admits to being around at day end but not voting for Laarz. Given how close we were yesterday to a mislynch I am pretty confident most (if not all) of the people on that train were town



@BA: If I was in a team with Gwaihir why would I just not vote for Gold yesterday? There was a semi train yet I spent a lot of effort trying to get town to lynch Laarz. I also highly doubt that Gwaihir is mafia given that he lynched / locked Laarz.

I agree that Gold looks scummy, my problem with a Gold lynch is that both Numbers and Coju are going after her and I suspect that atleast one if not both of them are scum. I may be giving somewhat of a free pass to people on Laarz's train, but it feels like it was so close to being mislynch that most if not all the people on that train are town.

As mentioned my vote would be on numbers. I just wouldn't be shocked if you were scum, but I couldn't vote for you based on the information we have. To answer your question anyway, if we are in MYLO, I believe (without running the math) that a 1 for 1 (lynch + nk) would keep us in MYLO. Which means a bus of your own would be extremely effective and eliminate a lot of the risk because you'd have the defense you just laid out. But again, I'd be voting numbers, just thinking out loud and reacting to what I read.

 

[IWantToUseNumbersInMyName]

Jcakes: Is it more suspicious to join a train on scum after they've already been locked, or to not vote on that train at all? Question I had in a similar situation in a previous game that nobody ever bothered answering.

I have so many disagreements with your statement I don't even know where to begin.

Unless mafia started with 3 players or one died without a flip, I think there are 2 mafia left. 3 mafia left today would mean 5 mafia were alive during D4. D4 had 12 players. 5 mafia among 12 players is LYLO. I think a LYLO D4 does not result in a mafia modkill. It will play out VERY differently. Not 5 on D4 mafia means 4 or 3 to start. I tend toward 4 since the pattern of ~14 town vs ~2 neutral vs ~4 mafia in a 20 player game is a pretty good setup.

If Laarz was the hitman and no other mafia targeted anyone that night, then mafia might "just win" while we test the theory. Even with CG's kill, 2 mislynches (and 2 NKs after) to test the remaining 2 Drixx targeters would leave mafia with 2 vs 1.

If Laarz flipped hitman, I wouldn't give a free pass to a Drixx targeter. The contrapositive is also true. If Laarz doesn't flip hitman, I wouldn't give a free pass to a non-Drixx targeter.

Two mafia targeting Drixx would mean only one mafia among Gwaihir, Jcakes, Goldtru, coju and Noodle. Quite frankly, I find it unlikely that one and only one scum exists among Gwaihir, Jcakes, Goldtru, coju and Noodle. I think I might believe an un-PartyHostable mafia role (Ninja?) before I believe only one scum among them. OK, that may be a stretch, but not a big stretch.

There are more reasons but they are minor compared to the above and I'm tired.

That's exactly what I was saying before. IF we test every individual who targeted drixx, and the two remaining are both town, we lose. It's essentially gambling the entire game on there being at least one more scum on that list.

 

[Jcakes1]

Jcakes: Is it more suspicious to join a train on scum after they've already been locked, or to not vote on that train at all? Question I had in a similar situation in a previous game that nobody ever bothered answering.

That's exactly what I was saying before. IF we test every individual who targeted drixx, and the two remaining are both town, we lose. It's essentially gambling the entire game on there being at least one more scum on that list.

I think it is equally suspicious either way, choosing not to place the lynch / lock vote on a train that ended up being scum is relatively suspicious. I do know that your place style is to be around at days end at place a last minute vote / unvote though.

Two your second point I don't want to test everyone on that train, just the one person that was not on the Laarz train that also appeared in the Drixx list.

 

[Noodle]

Re the late claims: remember Noodle hasn't claimed at all, due to personal play style.

Stop making stuff up, scum.

 

[Goldtru1]

Ok, apparently I am getting all kinds of attention which is just super. I'll fix my hair right away. Let me ask you this. Since I have done my best to keep up with the posts, and have therefore seen the theory about event staff being mafia, why in the name of all that is holy would I waltz in, bat my eyelashes, and go "teehee I'm event staff too!" Seems awfully convenient to demand roles, loudly trump a theory about mafia=specific TV show team, then when you force someone to claim go "A-ha!" That's the same technique Baldrick proposed in the Blackadder world war 1 season about finding German spies. "I'd say 'are you a German spy!' If it were me, I'd own up!"

 

[Goldtru1]

Here's an example of what I'm talking about.

[youtube]C_EMnY79UVc[/youtube]

 

[Gwaihir]

I have so many disagreements with your statement I don't even know where to begin.

If Laarz was the hitman and no other mafia targeted anyone that night, then mafia might "just win" while we test the theory. Even with CG's kill, 2 mislynches (and 2 NKs after) to test the remaining 2 Drixx targeters would leave mafia with 2 vs 1.

If Laarz flipped hitman, I wouldn't give a free pass to a Drixx targeter. The contrapositive is also true. If Laarz doesn't flip hitman, I wouldn't give a free pass to a non-Drixx targeter.

Two mafia targeting Drixx would mean only one mafia among Gwaihir, Jcakes, Goldtru, coju and Noodle. Quite frankly, I find it unlikely that one and only one scum exists among Gwaihir, Jcakes, Goldtru, coju and Noodle. I think I might believe an un-PartyHostable mafia role (Ninja?) before I believe only one scum among them. OK, that may be a stretch, but not a big stretch.

There are more reasons but they are minor compared to the above and I'm tired.

I agree the most likely number of initial mafia 4. I also agree that no one should be given a free pass, and we can by no means be sure that Laarz was not the hitman.

That said, assuming there are 2 mafia left, it is unlikely that either have an active ability (assuming no ninja and no missing submit). With the threat made of catching the hitman, why would they have one do both? Huge risk unless the passives on the remaining mafia are really good.

Ok, apparently I am getting all kinds of attention which is just super. I'll fix my hair right away. Let me ask you this. Since I have done my best to keep up with the posts, and have therefore seen the theory about event staff being mafia, why in the name of all that is holy would I waltz in, bat my eyelashes, and go "teehee I'm event staff too!" Seems awfully convenient to demand roles, loudly trump a theory about mafia=specific TV show team, then when you force someone to claim go "A-ha!" That's the same technique Baldrick proposed in the Blackadder world war 1 season about finding German spies. "I'd say 'are you a German spy!' If it were me, I'd own up!"

Did you know that the other two were event staff before you claimed?

Thoughts on alive players:

1. IWantToUseNumbersInMyName - I have some issues that have been pointed out, but gut actually says townie.
8. Goryani - Seems to be playing more like a mafia Gory - he has not really been pushing on people as much, more just passive questioning. Normally by this point in the game he has made cases against people and I don't remember much of that. CG said JOAT, which matches claim, but Gory only stated abilities after CG said he was a JOAT. Very unsure at the moment.
9. Jcakes - Started the Laarz lynch. Gut says town.
13. Goldtru - claimed late and with a suspicious name. No real scumhunting, seems like just trying to avoid attention. Leaning towards mafia.
18. coju - still has not claimed fully. Also leaning towards mafia.
19. Noodle - no real read. Played anti-Noodle D1, which makes me believe his claim, and leaning towards town.

Even with what I said earlier, I think the remaining team may be Gold and coju. That said, either Gory or Numbers could very well be mafia instead. I am not sure where we are at for votes, but my vote for today I think will be for Gold.

 

[IWantToUseNumbersInMyName]

Ok, apparently I am getting all kinds of attention which is just super. I'll fix my hair right away. Let me ask you this. Since I have done my best to keep up with the posts, and have therefore seen the theory about event staff being mafia, why in the name of all that is holy would I waltz in, bat my eyelashes, and go "teehee I'm event staff too!" Seems awfully convenient to demand roles, loudly trump a theory about mafia=specific TV show team, then when you force someone to claim go "A-ha!" That's the same technique Baldrick proposed in the Blackadder world war 1 season about finding German spies. "I'd say 'are you a German spy!' If it were me, I'd own up!"

I don't know gold, it does seem kind of crazy. Perhaps you missed that the names of those who flipped scum were event staff names, so you didn't see any reason to not use your name (everybody else seemed to have missed that except for coju) and claim event staff.

Why didn't you claim yesterday, after you came so close to being lynched the day before?

 

[IWantToUseNumbersInMyName]

I agree the most likely number of initial mafia 4. I also agree that no one should be given a free pass, and we can by no means be sure that Laarz was not the hitman.

That said, assuming there are 2 mafia left, it is unlikely that either have an active ability (assuming no ninja and no missing submit). With the threat made of catching the hitman, why would they have one do both? Huge risk unless the passives on the remaining mafia are really good.



Did you know that the other two were event staff before you claimed?

Thoughts on alive players:

1. IWantToUseNumbersInMyName - I have some issues that have been pointed out, but gut actually says townie.
8. Goryani - Seems to be playing more like a mafia Gory - he has not really been pushing on people as much, more just passive questioning. Normally by this point in the game he has made cases against people and I don't remember much of that. CG said JOAT, which matches claim, but Gory only stated abilities after CG said he was a JOAT. Very unsure at the moment.
9. Jcakes - Started the Laarz lynch. Gut says town.
13. Goldtru - claimed late and with a suspicious name. No real scumhunting, seems like just trying to avoid attention. Leaning towards mafia.
18. coju - still has not claimed fully. Also leaning towards mafia.
19. Noodle - no real read. Played anti-Noodle D1, which makes me believe his claim, and leaning towards town.

Even with what I said earlier, I think the remaining team may be Gold and coju. That said, either Gory or Numbers could very well be mafia instead. I am not sure where we are at for votes, but my vote for today I think will be for Gold.

Also leaning towards scum on coju, which makes me really question my thoughts on the goldtru issue...but I guess I'd be willing to vote coju as well if push came to shove.