Ender's Mafia Game

I think that there are three possibilities

Go go typo. The 3 key is right next to the 2 key you know.

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You didn't type 3, you typed three. You smell funny!

Unvote: Sathoris
Vote: Drixx
 
Drixx,it seems like you are casting doubt on Jason's info and in doing so its like you are trying to draw the heat off Moar.
 
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You didn't type 3, you typed three. You smell funny!

Unvote: Sathoris
Vote: Drixx

Good point. Innocent slip though. I thought a witty response would be better than explaining that my original thoughts on the Jason situation were complicated by the possibility of him being part of a third party faction, but while I was typing that lengthy post I dismissed it as overcomplicated and not useful to the point I was making. Had I bothered to proof the post before posting it, I would have changed "three" to "two".

Also, you're fairly silly if you think an actual mafia would make the sort of slip I just did. I have not yet had the chance to be mafia (knowingly... TC's "fairly vanilla game", I'm looking at you[b/]) in one of these forum games, but I have once been the godfather in live mafia play, and let's be honest ... that's the role everyone hopes for when they sign up. When you finally do buck the odds and end up as mafia, you don't make silly slips like "the 2 key is next to the 3 key" when you typed the word out. When you are getting to play the bad guy, you go re-read the post in question before you respond to the question about it. I didn't, and just gave a flippant response because I'd rather not distract us away from Jason's pseudo claim and then refusal to respond to me (and his online indicator has gone off and back on so I'm fairly sure he's seen my posts).
 
Drixx,it seems like you are casting doubt on Jason's info and in doing so its like you are trying to draw the heat off Moar.

I think we have to lynch moar today probably. I want Jason to finish role claiming because the info will help the town and because if he is scum trying to make a bussing play, his full claim may contain something that helps us catch him at it now or later on. If he actually is the town investigator, he isn't going to last a whole lot longer. The mafia may hold off on killing him tonight for a variety of reasons but if we didn't lynch him tomorrow I can't imagine the mafia would hold off any longer than that and let him keep investigating people and potentially finding more of them.

Ergo the best thing for the town is if Jason fully role claims, gives up all his info (including his character name) and then we lynch moar to test him. If moar comes up scum (which seems almost certain whether Jason is the investigator or whether he's scum), then we'll have the most possible info from Jason as well as a claim that he can't back out of later on if other information outs him as a fraud. If we're exceedingly lucky he might live another night or two and finds some more scum for us (or busses another before we wise up).

I'd appreciate it if any of the more experienced players would point out if my reasoning is flawed here, but I'm pretty sure a full and thorough role claim with all his info is the best move Jason can make for the town. If he refuses to do so, that makes me question why, and so until he does, I'm trying to pressure him with my posts and my vote.

At the end of the day, I think we are almost obligated to lynch moar to test Jason to some extent.
 
SI may be dead but you and coju are living. The interaction patterns you talk about apply here.

For you to analyse as I know why I interact with certain people.

I can believe not voting D1 unless you start a train. I've done similar before. But not voting because you didn't start the train isn't the same as defending korial by interrogating the interrogator. If you think korial scummy enough to be too scummy to be scummy then why did someone acting on that suspicion cause more reaction from you than the players who essentially ignored korial and the subject?

You misunderstand, I thought Korial was town and not scummy because the thing he was accused of being scummy for is not something scum do. So too scummy to be scum = town. People who realise something like that will just ignore it and look for someone else. Same reason why I don't mention why some one's post is townie. I went after SI because he took it as a scum sign, combined with other stuff. But alas.

At the moment I'm going for a more direct scumhunting method. Actually, it's a townhunting method. I saw some strange things in the votes/reasons yesterday. You said you saw "interesting votes." I wanted to see if yours matched mine. If they do, then I think you are more likely to be town. I've delayed talking about them because I wanted to know what you thought was interesting. The term can mean just about anything you want it to so it's easy for mafia to say and have a way of backing it up later.

So you'd have me share why I think some votes were interesting to see if you thought the same and thus you can form an opinion of me? I might just do that later this dayphase.

I think that there are three possibilities, which I will rank by what I consider to be the most to least likely.

1.) Jason is mafia and the mafia have decided to make a play to get him trusted, so he's BUSSING Moar and would only come up with more ironclad "night info" if he absolutely has to. If this is the case and he pulls off the play, it could wreak all sorts of havoc on the town power roles (doctor targeting him to "save" him from the mafia, bus driver swaps, etc...) and the town really has very little way to test him short of a lynch which potentially robs us of an investigator of some sort. This is why there even is a term BUSSING as it's a strategy that works.

2.) Jason is the town's investigator.

Snip

Either way we lynch Moar today, or you disagree?

The only team that wants to keep info from everyone is the scum team.

Only applicable to lynch results.
 
Seems to me we need to lynch either Jason Maher or Moar.

I would say Moar. If we lynch Jason and he turns up sheriff, we lose the potential of a doctor save or the mafia targeting someone else on the assumption the doctor will try and save Jason tonight ... and thus lose one more night of investigation from him.

Lynching moar and having him flip scum won't totally convince me that Jason is actually the sheriff, but a more thorough role claim with dull disclosure of his night 1 and 2 investigations (or how he came by the info if he's not he sheriff) would convince me to trust him to a certain extent.

Of the two choices, though, lynching Moar I think is obviously the better. The long Jason goes without answering my questions, the more uneasy I feel about his sort-of role claim.
 
@Sathoris - Yes I agree. Moar has to be lynched today. I still think Jason needs to do a full role claim and give us all of his information.

Do you agree on that count?
 
Interesting considering your vote timing and reason on Korial.

I think I was pretty clear once I caught up with the thread that I thought the Korialstraz case was flimsy at best. There was, unfortunately, no other lynch wagon going yesterday and I have been convinced by the mafia regulars here that a day 1 lynch of a townie is better than a day 1 no lynch. I don't think we got as much information from it as we could have, and a lot of people seem to be getting a free pass for inactivity thus far. There are certainly scum hiding in the low-activity crowd, but they would be unable to do so if all the townies would be active.
 
I think we ought to see how Moar flips first. A cop coming out with an investigation result without fully claiming cop probably means he has his reasons. Same for a mafia though. But we have the time to see how Moar flips first.
 
I think I was pretty clear once I caught up with the thread that I thought the Korialstraz case was flimsy at best. There was, unfortunately, no other lynch wagon going yesterday. I don't think we got as much information from it as we could have.

Exactly...
 
@Zokar...I got called into a meeting which lasted longer than expected. On my day off no less!!!!!!!I wasn't going to vote for Korialstradivarius because I didn't believe the case was valid. I was completely suspicious of Goryani pushing it soooo hard and will be watching him closely (until someone better comes along).

Goryani did have some pretty strong involvement throughout the day phase, but I definately put Solar at the top of the list for leading that one.

What I know is one of the scum skimmed the thread on a bus ride, then logged in and quickly voted ~15 minutes before the end of the day. This person expresses regret over the vote, and considers it would have been more beneficial to keep the person voted for alive to be framed.

This confused me with the more beneficial for the person voted to be alive statement.

You won't. It was information I received at night.

But then this cleared it up.

Vote: Moar

Jason Maher has essentially outed himself as either a mafia (thus his "slam dunk" info is a mafia ploy to get him fully trusted, and whenever pressed he will cough up another "slam dunk night info" scum for us if it will help him stay trusted) or as a town power role (most likely some variation of sheriff). Either way, I am fairly certain if he's not mafia he's painted a pretty large target on himself. Might as well finish it off and role claim.

So, Mr. Maher, would like that role claim now please.

Vote: Jason Maher

Wow, just wow, alright let me get this straight. You think Mafia A: Jason, is outing Mafia B: Moar, and the best way to test this whole thing is to vote for the supposed Mafia A: Jason and force a full role claim?

I think that there are three possibilities, which I will rank by what I consider to be the most to least likely.

1.) Jason is mafia and the mafia have decided to make a play to get him trusted, so he's BUSSING Moar and would only come up with more ironclad "night info" if he absolutely has to. If this is the case and he pulls off the play, it could wreak all sorts of havoc on the town power roles (doctor targeting him to "save" him from the mafia, bus driver swaps, etc...) and the town really has very little way to test him short of a lynch which potentially robs us of an investigator of some sort. This is why there even is a term BUSSING as it's a strategy that works.

2.) Jason is the town's investigator.

I find the second one pretty unlikely because there was no real suspicion on him and he hadn't made much of an impact on the game, so why out himself to the mafia so early? Let's suppose he is the sheriff... he knows that Moar is mafia ... this early in the game it's probably a worthwhile risk for him to observe moar or try to find some way to get the wagon going without essentially role claiming.

I mean, at this point he basically has to finish coming out and role claim, and then we'll probably have to lynch him or moar (depending on how long it takes Jason to reply and how convincing he is) to test the claim, and even if moar flips mafia, we won't be able to be fully sure that Jason is actually the sheriff, but if he is then the mafia obviously have their next target.

I guess it's possible that Jason really is the sheriff, and really did find a mafia, and did the math and realized that a for sure 1:1 him for a scum trade is a good deal for the town ... but if I were him I probably would have tried to exchange myself for more than just one. I'm fairly surprised by the almost role claim on day 2. Statistically a sheriff has about a 10-15% chance to have found a mafia by now so the deck is pretty stacked against this being legit.

But, stranger things have happened... and I think Jason needs to make a role claim that he can't wiggle out of later, and then if he's believable I suppose we'll have to lynch moar to test at least that bit of his claim.

I think that if he's really town, he needs to give us a full role claim including his character name, and we need to test it. He already outed himself, but in a way that makes me suspicious that it could be a bussing play. At this point if he really is a town power role, he already let that cat out of the bag. Better he give the town as much info in the open as possible (denying the mafia the ability to make fake claims with info he might hold onto) than to hold it close to the vest at this point.

I put my vote on him because so far he's made a claim that he knows for sure that moar is mafia and that he knows this via night knowledge. Both of those things can be true if he's mafia quite a lot more easily than if he has a town power role. If he does have a town power role, he already outed himself to the mafia and he's doing the town absolutely zero good by keeping any information he has secret.

Because of his claim we basically have to lynch him or moar, but I put my vote on him first because something just doesn't ring the right way with how he has gone about outing himself.

Ok, so lets put this on the likelyhood scale shall we? Jason, who has had little activity so far and has been the center of no attention comes out with some information. This information happens to pertain to Moar, who also has had little to no activity and has also been the center of no attention. Assuming we take Jason's information in good faith, we are pretty much guarenteed that Moar is going to flip mafia. This would put it on the bussing scale on a level of what Jerome (Pharphis) did to Jcakes.

Apparently this scenario to you, is more likely then a town power role (investigator, or whatever Jason might be), choosing to investigate or whatever Jason did one of the people that were among the last minute voters yesterday that sealed the lynch on a townie. Tell me, if you had an investigative power role, how would you determine who to use it on. You would probably pick someone who you thought to be suspicious am I right? Jason's initial posts seem to try and direct us to the fact that he had information without saying "HEY, I'M THE COP DERP DERP, LISTEN TO ME". Are the chances of finding a scum with an investigation this early lower than later in the game? Yeah of course, but with a little thought, you can narrow down some of the people you choose to investigate. Whats the chances of the investigator never finding a scum? Possible, and it happened in a previous game, we also had a game where a watcher saw no one (*cough* Zokar *cough*). But the normal thought process is, if you find something certain, then you usually come forward with that information.

Long story short, if I wasn't currently voting for Moar, I'd be voting for you.
 
Long story short, if I wasn't currently voting for Moar, I'd be voting for you.

Then you are not thinking very clearly. Jason Maher already outted himself with a semi-claim of the town investigator role. I merely want him to give us a full claim that he can't back out of later. Right now we have a vague claim. I am nearly sure that moar will flip scum, but that won't really confirm that Jason is a townie.

If he's outed already, and he outed himself, the best interests of the town is for him to fully role claim and give up as much info as he has that will help us. If he's really the town investigator, then he's probably not long for this game, wouldn't you agree? Why should he go to his grave with things he could have told us, which could help us, unsaid?

There are three possibilities here (really three this time!) that I think all have a reasonable likelihood:

1.) Jason Maher has a/the town investigator role and really uncovered moar during the night. In this case, he has one other night's info to share, his character name to give and perhaps some other information that would be helpful to the town and detrimental to the scum. Should he go to his grave without sharing this information, that hurts the town.

2.) Jason Maher is a mafioso and the mafia are setting up a long con.

3.) Jason Maher is the VI and wants us to lynch moar and have him come up townie so we lynch him and he wins the game.


I suppose there are other possibilities, but those are the ones which seem plausible to me.

As I've said ever since Jason's pseudo-claim, I think we have to lynch moar today no matter what ... but I also think Jason needs to do a full claim, and nobody seems to have any logical reason to show me being wrong on that count.

As far as me thinking my vote on Jason is a test, you are right. He's been on and offline in the thread and has surely seen my posts and my vote on him, but hasn't responded at all. The question you should ask yourself is whether that makes him look legit or whether that makes him look scummy. Putting a vote on someone to put pressure on them to either defend themselves or go silent is a useful tactic. In this case, Mr. Maher chose to go silent. I'll leave you to decide whether a townie investigator would go silent and refuse to give up info that would help the town once he has outed himself.

As far as it goes, my vote on him has served its purpose for the most part. Jason will either respond to my posts or not, and those responses or non-responses (and whether he lives more than another night) will probably be useful later on.

Unvote: Jason Maher.
Vote: Moar

@Jason Maher, I still expect a role claim or a very convincing argument from you for why you should withhold one.
 
Also ... if Jason makes an actual full claim, including his role and character name, and he's mafia, that full claim could reveal him. If he's mafia he probably has a character name of one of the "Bad guys" from the book(s) and so he would be forced to pick a "good guy" name and hope that nobody was given the character name (because they could then speak up and out him). If he claims a town investigator role that someone else has, that could also get him caught.

By just taking it on faith that he's the town investigator, we're robbing ourselves of very useful information. I'm beginning to wonder why some of you people are attacking me for wanting clarity on Jason. Right now, with his super vague claim... Moar flipping scum won't really tell us anything about Jason other than Jason knew Moar was scum... and it's far more likely that he would know that as an anti-town role than as a town role.

Anyway, I've beaten this horse as much as I care to. If Jason refuses to give up a name and a role or give a very convincing argument for why he shouldn't, that just swings the needle from "let's be cautious and not blindly trust" to "that's pretty suspicious".
 
I've tried to multi-quote three times with only epic failure...The short of it is Moar must be lynched to prove/disprove JasonMaher. Drixx and Noodle are both trying to derail things with fishy reasons at best. Looks like I'll need to move from Goryani to one of you two......or is that three??
 
I've tried to multi-quote three times with only epic failure...The short of it is Moar must be lynched to prove/disprove JasonMaher. Drixx and Noodle are both trying to derail things with fishy reasons at best. Looks like I'll need to move from Goryani to one of you two......or is that three??
My luck...Vote: Moar
 
For you to analyse as I know why I interact with certain people.

Hence the question you keep avoiding. Easier to analyze when knowing the backstory.

You misunderstand, I thought Korial was town and not scummy because the thing he was accused of being scummy for is not something scum do. So too scummy to be scum = town. People who realise something like that will just ignore it and look for someone else. Same reason why I don't mention why some one's post is townie. I went after SI because he took it as a scum sign, combined with other stuff. But alas.

Too scummy to be scum means you see scummy play. As a result of the scummy play, someone questions the scummy player. As a result of the questions, you question the questioner. I understand that perfectly.

Even if I think korial is town (too scummy to be scum) I don't have suspicions when someone else does the interrogation. Yet you did. I'm still wondering why.

So you'd have me share why I think some votes were interesting to see if you thought the same and thus you can form an opinion of me? I might just do that later this dayphase.

That was the goal 19 hours ago.
 
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