Hmm, I see your point. However, given the random nature of this game it could very easily have been me with the PM (and may very well be me tomorrow, who knows!) and while I don't know for sure, I'm guessing I'd probably end up posting the PM sometime during the day anyway, somebody is bound to ask for a Norman to speak up. That being said, you're probably right about putting it out there like that since somebody is likely to ask anyway, should have just let them ask... *shrugs*
Mafia game thread
- Thread starter Sathoris
- Start date
Hmm, I see your point. However, given the random nature of this game it could very easily have been me with the PM (and may very well be me tomorrow, who knows!) and while I don't know for sure, I'm guessing I'd probably end up posting the PM sometime during the day anyway, somebody is bound to ask for a Norman to speak up. That being said, you're probably right about putting it out there like that since somebody is likely to ask anyway, should have just let them ask... *shrugs*
i havent read todays posts and i dont have time too, but i can say that i watched val last night, ill post the PM later if i get time.
This is what I got out of it, too.
So we know that cakes saved Goryani, which would be the "Beth saved a Ted" part of things. If we believe Male then he watched Val, but I think that's a big "if". I stand by my Mal vote, but I will hold off on reiterating it until there has been discussion.
Also, does anybody else get a "cop investigating self" sort of vibe from the part about Norman knowing he will do no evil? That was mentioned last game as something that is sometimes done, and it sounds almost like Sath is telling us someone investigated or tracked or watched or whatevered themself last night.
I thought so. I want to see an answer from him, but he is very close to getting a vote from me.
i watched val because IMO he was the most suspicious person at the time
By the looks of it it may be best to target a beth today?
By the looks of it it may be best to target a beth today?
All four (living) Harry's claimed to receive the roleblock ability. If true, and if at least one Harry is mafia (hello squid...) then mafia get to use the same abilities as town.
Laarz had to choose his target well before name claims and before seeing an example of the story and possible breadcrumbs. Laarz claimed his block ability after the story breadcrumbing was publically known but also after knowing if his breadcrumb was present or not. It would be possible for Laarz to lie about his target but I'd think it would still be difficult. He claimed before any other results from any ability were mentioned in the thread (pharphis claim didn't contain results).
pharphis' claim would be the easiest to fake. All he had to do was block someone and tell us he didn't block anyone. At the time, the watcher/tracker abilities weren't claimed. As those roles aren't exactly common, a calculated risk isn't usually too risky. Also, the story said a Ted watched a Ted so it's possible to construct a legit looking fake claim.
thefranklin had about as much information as possible to make a fake target work. All name claims. No roleblocker breadcrumbs in the stories thus far but the watcher breadcrumb was deciphered the day before. His choice of CG isn't likely to have blocked a power role. That looks townie to me though he did have patterns of names/abilities to work with and/or avoid.
Valhauros was the first roleblocker ability to appear in the stories, from what I can see. He appears to have blocked a Harry. A mafia roleblocker blocking a pro-town roleblocker is not something I expect to be possible in this game until we see double ups in the stories. Therefore, it appears Valhauros didn't attempt to block a power role.
Summary:
There doesn't appear to be any evidence to contradict any roleblocker claim. None of the roleblockers appear to use their ability to block a town power role. Any could have lied about their target, and some claims are easier to fake than others. Any could have used the roleblocker ability in a manner less than "ideal" from a town perspective. I don't see any outright "bad" choices (assuming the claims are all true) though some might (and have) disagree. In short, I don't see any easy lynch based solely on the claims.
Laarz had to choose his target well before name claims and before seeing an example of the story and possible breadcrumbs. Laarz claimed his block ability after the story breadcrumbing was publically known but also after knowing if his breadcrumb was present or not. It would be possible for Laarz to lie about his target but I'd think it would still be difficult. He claimed before any other results from any ability were mentioned in the thread (pharphis claim didn't contain results).
pharphis' claim would be the easiest to fake. All he had to do was block someone and tell us he didn't block anyone. At the time, the watcher/tracker abilities weren't claimed. As those roles aren't exactly common, a calculated risk isn't usually too risky. Also, the story said a Ted watched a Ted so it's possible to construct a legit looking fake claim.
thefranklin had about as much information as possible to make a fake target work. All name claims. No roleblocker breadcrumbs in the stories thus far but the watcher breadcrumb was deciphered the day before. His choice of CG isn't likely to have blocked a power role. That looks townie to me though he did have patterns of names/abilities to work with and/or avoid.
Valhauros was the first roleblocker ability to appear in the stories, from what I can see. He appears to have blocked a Harry. A mafia roleblocker blocking a pro-town roleblocker is not something I expect to be possible in this game until we see double ups in the stories. Therefore, it appears Valhauros didn't attempt to block a power role.
Summary:
There doesn't appear to be any evidence to contradict any roleblocker claim. None of the roleblockers appear to use their ability to block a town power role. Any could have lied about their target, and some claims are easier to fake than others. Any could have used the roleblocker ability in a manner less than "ideal" from a town perspective. I don't see any outright "bad" choices (assuming the claims are all true) though some might (and have) disagree. In short, I don't see any easy lynch based solely on the claims.
What did you expect to happen from watching a pro-town Val? What about an anti-town Val?
Why do you think Beth is the best target today? If you were to target a Beth today, which Beth would it be?
Ok now read the following posts.
[/QUOTE]
Now that you have read the above exchange, why did you choose to watch Val?
I find this unsettling.
Your choice (and reasoning) of Valhauros a second time right after I had watched him seem too calculated.
I was thinking about what this meant, too. I was specifically trying to analyze exactly how each person claimed, and if any claim seemed scummier than another's. Pharphis claimed first and posted the role pm at a kind of risky stage, but managed to change a couple of things. Laarz claimed after and pointed our what Pharphis changed. I claimed the roleblock the next night, noticed two differences, but was not pressed on the issue. Val gets the roleblock and posts (at least what appears to be, I didn't do a side by side analysis) the actual pm.
I bolded a part.
I'm really hoping that the mafia don't get these pms, and that this proves that the mafia Harry is hiding as another role, as has been put forward before. Like some people have said, I claimed at a risky time, with a risky pm as a Harry. He wasn't looking good in any way, so it probably made the most sense for the mafia Harry to claim different.
^I'm looking at this under the assumption that there is only one of each character in the mafia, btw.
You commented on this later, but it still really bugs me. What makes you think it possible there can be 2 kills, as we have never even seen a hint of that before?
Agree with most of this. The real question is random or rotating? No one has claimed getting a power twice so far. Could the hitman PM be working by the same rules?
I see it as a good idea when the save is actually successful - in most games you don't because the doc could die. But when it is rotating between people, you can't kill off a claimed doc as easily.
Almost forgot that about the person imbalance. Care when posting full PM's, might be able to use that to spot a fake.
Agreed with this, and with Gory. Mal, could you give the reasoning behind going for Val last night?
A tracker is essentially the opposite of a watcher, a tracker sees who the person they target visits during the night, where as a watcher see who visits the person they targeted.
I think this is unlikely, I think Goryani says it somewhere after this post but the kill flavors relating to that characters manifestation makes the most sense. Harry = squid, Beth = suicide. I would expect to see something similar to this in the stories after each night.
Last night's stories are the clearest of them so far, which may be why it was so easy for me to pick out the night actions last night as opposed to previous nights.
I agree with the above, it seems to be the most likely scenario so far.
From the way the story is worded it seems that Norman being a Tracker seems the most likely. What do you mean by that there was no hitman ability given? As in they aren't assigned as a hitman specifically?
I'm not sure how you pulled 2 preventions out of the story, it sounds like you were trying to speculate something that isn't really there.
Probably 3 or 4, and imagine that, we were right, it just took a bunch of wasted days for it to happen.
Why would you watch Val last night after the discussion yesterday about flubb watching Val, if val is scum then we wouldn't see anyone visiting him for a night kill now would we?
I still think that Norman tracking a different Norman seems the most likely, but I guess that could be wrong. Also, I wouldn't take it as a cop investigating self (if it really is a cop role) since there are multiple Normans.
Looking at it from a randomization standpoint, I wouldn't doubt that they would receive these pms because assuming a 4 person mafia team that would make it a little more balanced if the powers sometimes landed in the hands of the mafia (thereby keeping it out of the towns hands for a night). However the only one that really does anything for them is the roleblocker role.
Well, this isn't an ordinary game and there turned out to be a recruitment mechanism, as well. I didn't think about it very hard but I supposed the mafia had a chance at 2 kills in a night, as well, since we seem to have a rotating doc role (not easily dispatched by NK) to balance things out.
Like I said I'm under the assumption of 1 of each character as mafia, with a 5th as Jerry or something (yes I know jerry is harry), so balance-wise it didn't seem crazy. I've never made a game, though, and don't have the big picture. The main reason I thought there were 2 attempts at a kill is because that's exactly what the story says. (When you don't take into account that Beth kills by attempted suicide apparently).
---
I just thought of something else. Assuming we have a rotating hitman, then the next best bet for a block would be on a norman, next, iirc the hitmen so far (Harry, Ted and then Beth? In order of them entering?)
Still, it may just be random which one delivers the kill.
Like I said I'm under the assumption of 1 of each character as mafia, with a 5th as Jerry or something (yes I know jerry is harry), so balance-wise it didn't seem crazy. I've never made a game, though, and don't have the big picture. The main reason I thought there were 2 attempts at a kill is because that's exactly what the story says. (When you don't take into account that Beth kills by attempted suicide apparently).
---
I just thought of something else. Assuming we have a rotating hitman, then the next best bet for a block would be on a norman, next, iirc the hitmen so far (Harry, Ted and then Beth? In order of them entering?)
Still, it may just be random which one delivers the kill.
I would hope that if Norman is a cop they would not waste a night with a self investigation. We had a Harry flavored kill and all Harry's claim to have gotten the roleblocking role. This says that mafia can at least get that power, and I would bet they can get the others.
After more thought, it seems too easy for town if hitman rotates - we figure out the pattern and then can block (and maybe track) to find mafia very quickly. Seems more likely that either:
1) Mafia chooses hitman
2) random mafia gets a PM to be hitman
Seems roles rotate though - the chances of a lack of repeat so far seem like they would be pretty slim.
May be thats its an easy assumption that there are 4 different characters as mafia, but I remember this from the start of the game
posted by Sathoris
A free round of advice to all participants; I cannot stress enough how everything, except the individual actions of the mafia and town, have been generated randomly. Do not develop theories and suspicions on patterns. Do not try and outguess the mod.
I know I suggested the jerry theory earlier, but isn't the Sphere what is causing the things that happen, it seems to me, its the Sphere that manifests the fears I think. Don't know quite where i'm going with this, was just a thought I had. Maybe something to do with the unbalance of the roles.
Google