Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

[Marahumm]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I was never "on his tail" as I explain in a few posts from yesterday. I honestly believe his claim and I'm sure that as soon as he has a viable lynch target he will post it.

However, since you reminded me of Marahumm. Marahumm, you did not specify a reason for voting for me yesterday. Could you give one now please?

My reasoning was that it was getting to the end of the day phase and we needed a lynch. It's nothing personal, and I didn't have time to read newer posts as my phone was dying.

Leo was the first person to suggest to feysal that he might die before tomorrow:

really now? in your next post you can or cannot reply, but do you feel you will live to see tomorrow?

Seeing as how he DID die, I felt obligated to investigate further, but unfortunately was unsuccessful seeing as how she's missing =/

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

OT: Ugh, tough day at work today, read everything but couldn't respond till now, lots to say.

I thought that at first too, but can't think a recruitment would be very successful long term wise if it drew attention to itself by making the player disappear for a time frame. Should Leo pop back in suddenly, we'd have no recourse but to lynch her just to be sure she wasn't recruited. Seems counter-productive from a recruitment angle.

You seem to be contradicting yourself Cal. So you DON'T think it's a recruitment because a recruitment would not be the best idea, since she would be lynched out of suspicion when she returns...however, you DO still advocate lynching her upon return. So which is it? Should we be lynching her when she returns because she probably has been recruited? Or should we look the other way because the recruitment angle is not a wise one? Or are you just trying to lead us astray eh?

This is the most likely scenario I see:

There is a SK (I assume this means serial killer) who can commit kills, but these kills take "time". Probably the only way to save the victims is to find and lynch the SK before night comes. This would explain the poison and the kidnapping (both done by the SK?). If we find Leo dead by day's end, it would further justify this claim.

Laarz death seems to be done by the Mafia. If so, that would mean that the mafia were unable to make a kill in night one, or chose not to.

The end of the day will reveal the pattern to us, IMO.

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Now lets take a look at Uraj's clues (if they are clues). Notice that he mentions the two contrasting qualities of the rooms? Leo's room has signs of a struggle (amateur/messy serial killer?) while Laarz's shows no signs of a struggle (cold blooded assassin). With the window, I think Uraj is just trying to lead us in the right direction, by telling us that there's no way anyone could've entered from that path.

However, not sure what this could possibly mean in terms of gameplay. Any thoughts?

 

[Caluin Graye]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

You seem to be contradicting yourself Cal. So you DON'T think it's a recruitment because a recruitment would not be the best idea, since she would be lynched out of suspicion when she returns...however, you DO still advocate lynching her upon return. So which is it? Should we be lynching her when she returns because she probably has been recruited? Or should we look the other way because the recruitment angle is not a wise one?

I can see how my point was lost in the shuffle, but you caught the general gist of it. I was trying to show that it's a WIFOM situation, and the only way to be absolutely positive of where Leo's loyalties lie (should she return to us), is to go through with the lynch.

My personal opinion is that she's listed in the dead pool, we should treat her as such, and only worry about it should she happen to return to the game. In that unlikely scenario, I would indeed push for a lynch.

However, not sure what this could possibly mean in terms of gameplay. Any thoughts?

I'm of the opinion that they're red herrings.

Seeing as how he DID die, I felt obligated to investigate further, but unfortunately was unsuccessful seeing as how she's missing =/

How very... convenient.

 

[zarniwoop]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Just got back from Disney Magic Kingdom.

I'm still in shock. All I can say is that if you have no kids, do yourself a favor and don't EVER go to the Magic Kingdom theme-park at Disney. It's absolutely awful in every detail. Space Mountain was decent, but not anything like it's billed, and the rest was appalling.

Yes, its probably wonderful for kids 6-10, but anyone else should do themselves a favor and go to Universal as any ride in it crushes the entirety of Magic Kingdom. And I mean that in all sincerity and quite literally. Universal was a very pleasant surprise as every ride billed as really good was far better than my expectations (except spider man). If in Orlando, Universal is a must visit.

That said, the light and firework show at the end of the day was outrageously good at Magic Kingdom.

I'm too scattered to post anything useful. Sorry for the spam. But, after hearing about magic kingdom my entire life, I think most of the population of this country is out of their skulls.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Seriously? My wife and I went to Disney for our Honeymoon and the Magic Kingdom was one of our favorite places! How dare you insult such a great place!

Vote: Zarniwoop

 

[zarniwoop]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Please do vote for me as I wanted to die several times today.

Even the 12 year old couldn't love that place.

Sorry, I'll cut the off topic.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

And in all seriousness, I have a bone to pick with you from yesterday. You derailed a lynch train, and Mara hasn't proven himself to be the cop yet, and for all we know he's scum who abducted Leo. All because you can't accept that day 1 lynches are vital, especially when there are an even number of participants, as it drastically improves the odds of a town win. and to back up that statement, see this page:

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Numbers,_Part_1

And if you refuse to believe the math, then think about this statement. The lynch is the town's most important source of reliable information. By pushing a no lynch unless under extreme circumstances, you are denying the town information. Denying the town information is a HUGELY scummy move. Why are you so anti-town Zarni?

 

[zarniwoop]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

You spin a great tale Asrrin, but as always, you're making up words for your targets.

I didn't derail jack. I simply posted my disagreement that a day 1 lynch was in any way critical in games of this size. the games they based that on were TINY games where every single day was of overwhelming importance.

I'm sure if you studied the results here, the initial day's results would have almost nothing to do with the result of the game. And if it did, it would be because the town almost always wins on this forum.

I agree that the town's only certain source of info is a lynch with info given as to the person's role. Any contrary statement you attribute to me is made up by you in its entirety.

I am just of a like mind with Feysal that I am not required to vote for someone that I have no feeling about, especially early in the game. Now, if I'd come back before the end of the day, I'd have piled on TC as he was one of the two I had listed.

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

My voice seems to be weakening, meaning I have received a post restriction. I do not know how or why, but I was notified of this about an hour and a half ago. I can now only post five times for the remainder of the day, including this post, with a limit or five sentences in each post. Beyond that, I will remain capable of voting and unvoting only.

Effective immediately, I will be considering carefully if what I have to say is worth spending a post on.

First topic of the day (for me at least) is Feysal.

Posted at 16:52 yesterday:


I'll round to 17:00. An hour and a half earlier would be ~15:30. Is it a coinkydink that Uraj posted at 15:33? I'm leaning on no coinkydink. I feel SOMETHING happened but I'm as yet unsure of the details.

There are a large number of scenarios that fit the facts we have in evidence.
1. Feysal could have been infected N1 and the poison took time to incubate or whatever. It would neatly explain the lack of N1 kill. If this scenario is true, the I believe that Feysal was infected by mafia.
2. Feysal could have been infected during D1 and was notified when infected. If so, it seems fairly accurate to say the infecting happened before Uraj's #118. If this scenario is true, then the infector could be mafia (delayed kill for certain hitman?) or could be a SK - a kill at the start of N2 isn't terribly different than at the end of N2. We still would need to keep track of the N1 kill reasoning.

Would it be a good idea to ask anyone who has been poisoned speak up as soon as possible? Sure, it would take 1 post from their allowed quota (assuming they will get the same restriction as Feysal). But it would give us more time to figure things out.

Quoted the 2 above yours TC in case you missed it. Anyone who is poisoned should say it asap, just incorporate it into one of your 5 sentences of one of your posts so we lose as little of your restriction as possible. Seems like we need to wait till 4 EST and see if anyone is feeling a little green.

Noodle who do you have your eye on

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

On the kills:
I reckon the mafia's kill on N1 got blocked/docced or something and didn't go through. Their 2nd kill on Uraj did go through
Feysal was killed by some SK. Poisoning seems like the flavour of an SK
With Leo I thought of a vigilante. Room undisturbed matches a cop taking a citizen away. But Leo wasn't an obvious vig target, so I'm not sure.

I too expect to see Leo again. I wonder if her apparent abduction is part of a recruitment, though.

Why do you expect to see her again? Just because of the flavour? Gamewise it makes no sense. If she's out of the players alive list, then she's not alive. The only role here that I remember that came back from the dead was gandalf in the lotr mafia. And that was obviously flavour related.

I'm no mafia mechanics expert, forgive me if I am stating the bleeding obvious or completely wrong, but I would say that Leo has been spirited away by some kind of jailkeeper.

Again. Why do you think she could come back? How did you get to jailkeeper?

Regarding Miss Leo, I believe that she's been kidnapped and maybe we must do something to free her?

Useless speculation, yes let's all dance naked and hope she miraciously returns. You're trying to turn us down a wrong trail. We should ignore leo because she's dead, not cling on to any hope of seeing her again.

Please allow me to answer your question with another question, Goryani.
Do you think it would be a good idea to start a lynch on those who haven't voted on day 1? If so, why?

Just answer the question..

Seeing as how he DID die, I felt obligated to investigate further, but unfortunately was unsuccessful seeing as how she's missing =/

That wouldn't explain you not getting a result. If you investigated someone and they turn up dead you still get the result.

 

[LozHinge the Unhinged]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

To answer your question Sath, I thought she's come back because at the time I posted, Leo was listed as neing alive. This is no longer the case so I am treating her as dead.
(Sorry Leo!)

I could have researched what a jailkeeper was and concluded that Leo was not the target of a standard JK, but I wanted to ask the question as, 1. I CBFA to do the research and more importantly, 2. I wanted to see discussion and have one of the players come forward with a correction to my question.

Not much in the way of discussion at present, I'm as guilty as anyone of that. I am a little fed up just now, not game related and I'm not sure I will be posting a great deal until certain things get resolved. Sorry but that's life.

 

[LozHinge the Unhinged]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Sorry for typos, I think someone has swapped the keys around on my keyboard ffs.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

This many hours into day one had roughly 137 posts. Today: roughly 37. Just one of many deleterious side effects of a no-lynch and lack of votes. Go town.

 

[Kraz3yIvan]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I wouldn't say it'd be my first action, but there's no way to tell for sure without the lynch. Obviously you'd want as much information as possible before doing the deed, but lynching is one of those most sure ways to get solid information. No matter what her explanation for the disappearance is, you can't tell if it's a lie or not without the lynch.

Seems pretty basic reasoning to me. Protecting your new-found cult buddy, Ivan?

Hang fire - as far as we can make out Leo is dead (she's off the alive list) but your insinuating that I'm now a cult buddy of a most likely dead Leo..... that sounds like a game winning faction :doh:

Whats more interesting is you seemed to go straight to cult, for that to even be a remote possibility that would mean Leo would have to somehow come back and you've indicated that what ever she would say is pretty much redundant as she's got to be lynched.

 

[Kraz3yIvan]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

For now, though I named a number of people believing the mafia missed their kill, my opinions of them differ. Asrrin was the first to voice that theory, and he did mention another possibility too. Marahumm made a constructive suggestion based on that theory, one I don't agree with, but still. That leaves TC and Bad Ash, both of whom were sheeping Asrrin's theory without adding much of note. TC's comment about the mafia being confused about Uraj's counter looked genuine enough though, so of the people who've posted so far, I suspect Bad Ash most.

Of course we've yet to hear from half of the playerlist, so I think I'll keep my random stage vote on Krazeyivan for now. I never did get him back for that godawful blunder of his.

OK looking at Feysal posts now - I've even kept his comment of my fantastic blunder in one of the previous games!

Notice who he names above here

With 19 players in game, the odds that a doctor would guess correctly is 1/18, or about 6%. And yes, I think that is most likely, simply because I find other scenarios even less likely. Except perhaps the idea that the mafia was not allowed to kill on night one. That is trying to outguess the mod, and I have no idea how likely that scenario would be.

I think he is the first to write something about the odds of a correct doctor guess

I don't think they were specifically avoiding mentioning a doctor, but that they seemed a bit too eager to jump on Asrrin's theory of no kill being sent, without adding their own thoughts and theories. It amounts to pretty much the same though.

Again his theory gets repeated in the post above - specifically I would say about TC and Bad Ash

I agree with Goryani and Caluin Graye regarding Marahumm's behavior (checking user profiles) and it'd seem to me that it was an attempt to fish for roles gone awry, otherwise, I don't see why he defended his suggestion in all his following posts (so far). Gorny also seems a good candidate for a lynch train due to his claim of having a night action (which according to him "it's not the ability to investigate"), so if he ends up having more votes, I'll switch my vote to ensure a lynch.

Unvote: Caluin Graye ~ Vote: Marahumm

Valhauros has I think been quite quiet but did add the above - You seemed rather happy at the time to strike at Gorny but I must say I don't particularly like your reasoning - and you did vote Marahumm interesting so if I was to believe you to be more mafia aligned at this stage I'm going to have to think on about that vote as I'm not too sure on Marahumm as if he is a cop power role say then surely he'll be a strong NK target especially last night

My voice seems to be weakening, meaning I have received a post restriction. I do not know how or why, but I was notified of this about an hour and a half ago. I can now only post five times for the remainder of the day, including this post, with a limit or five sentences in each post. Beyond that, I will remain capable of voting and unvoting only.

Effective immediately, I will be considering carefully if what I have to say is worth spending a post on.

This was the next major contribution from Feysal so maybe it had to do with his theory on 1 or more of those players. Might be totally off base mind but its worth getting peoples thoughts - one more thing to note Feysal is typically a strong player and whoever targeted him I think sees him as a strong player so I would think the consensus of the mafia (if its them and not some vigilant) would be to remove him early doors that would mean some/most of the mafia players being familiar with Feysal and his past games and results

 

[Caluin Graye]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Hang fire

I don't know what that means. I'm gonna go Wiki that and learn something new today.

as far as we can make out Leo is dead (she's off the alive list)

Yes, agreed, which I plainly mentioned yesterday in post #264.

but your insinuating that I'm now a cult buddy of a most likely dead Leo..... that sounds like a game winning faction :doh:

I wasn't being completely serious about it. Think of it as just trying to see how you'd react. So far, it's been very telling.

Whats more interesting is you seemed to go straight to cult, for that to even be a remote possibility that would mean Leo would have to somehow come back and you've indicated that what ever she would say is pretty much redundant as she's got to be lynched.

I didn't go straight to cult; I simply responded to Noodle's suggestion that it may be a recruitment (indicating cult activity) in post #237. You're the one who took the idea and kept rolling on with it. I feel my reasoning is fairly valid (as nobody has given a reason opposite to it), but seeing as she is not here, there's nothing we can do about it now, it's not worth worrying over.

However, now I'm sensing you're trying to deflect and trying to cause confusion amongst the town.

Moving on.

Still not convinced about Mara. I don't believe his claim to be a cop, I don't believe his excuse about the failed investigation, and think he's pulled a fast one on us.

Right now, I'd be up for lynching Mara, Ivan, or possibly TC. I strongly suggest the town figures out who we're gonna put in the noose and get it settled early, so we don't miss another lynch.

 

[Noodle]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I'm not convinced Leo is dead, until Uraj specifically tells us so. I see her as kind of a Schroedinger's Cat type of situation.

I can understand voting for Mara, but it's a terrible move if he turns out to be the cop afterall. I agree that a lynch on TC or Ivan would likely tell us a lot.

 

[Kraz3yIvan]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I'm not convinced Leo is dead, until Uraj specifically tells us so. I see her as kind of a Schroedinger's Cat type of situation.

I can understand voting for Mara, but it's a terrible move if he turns out to be the cop afterall. I agree that a lynch on TC or Ivan would likely tell us a lot.

How exactly did I end up on your top 2 lynch list out of the blue eh? Lynching me tells you a lot? Please do tell...

I questioned a previous response and not only now does Caluin Graye have me on a lynch list for apparently causing confusion (when exactly)

But you seemed to jump straight on the back of that - My post looking at Feysal gave us a few names to look at that might have triggered his poisoning - but I'm actually happier with the responses here to look at you

 

[Technomancer]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Wow, slow day.

---

On the kills:
I reckon the mafia's kill on N1 got blocked/docced or something and didn't go through. Their 2nd kill on Uraj did go through

Vote: Uraj LOL!
Umm, Uraj is dead? So what now, game over?

Unvote: Uraj

With Leo I thought of a vigilante. Room undisturbed matches a cop taking a citizen away. But Leo wasn't an obvious vig target, so I'm not sure.

This is backwards too man. Leo's room was the mess, Laarz's room was pristine. Getting the party started early? :wine:

---

Regarding Leo: I can understanding "treating" her as if she's dead, but assuming that she is? That's a pretty big leap. Unless of course someone knows something about it that I don't. :scratchchin: I went digging on mafiascum and looked up Jailkeeper, this doesn't sound anything like a Jailkeeper. Looking back, Sath is right to be curious about Loz jumping to that, assuming Loz DOES know anything about Jailkeepers. Lesson learned: Always look up stuff for yourself!

I did however find a Kidnapper. There is next to no info, but it would stop the target from posting or voting. Temporarily removing her from the list would accomplish this. Now, I don't know what we can do about it, so yeah, forgetting her for the time-being is probably the only thing we can do, but I would think that if we do somehow find the kidnapper, she might be recoverable.

That wouldn't explain you not getting a result. If you investigated someone and they turn up dead you still get the result.

If she's not dead, just sequestered away from the other players, it seems to be practical to me that an investigation would fail, as would any other action except maybe protection, wouldn't it?

I'm not convinced Leo is dead, until Uraj specifically tells us so. I see her as kind of a Schroedinger's Cat type of situation.

I can understand voting for Mara, but it's a terrible move if he turns out to be the cop afterall.

I have to say I agree with these sentiments. I'm not sure about Mara either, but I'd hate to lynch a cop if it's true.

---

I think TC is as good a target as any, but I'm not really seeing Ivan. I'm not sure on Cal's reasoning, and besides, the insistence that Leo be lynched no matter what if returned, I find that troubling. I was fresh meat last game, so I hate targeting new players, but this is making me suspicious. Also, Sath's strange mistakes and insistence that Leo is like uber-megadead, is odd. Sath always pings my scumdar, but it's pinging a little harder.

And Val, where you at buddy? Been busy all day playing with your newly "acquired" "friend"?