Bolded part should have been: tend to believe him slightly more than not.
Also, I am not in a hurry to vote.
I'm in no hurry to vote either. I believe yesterday was the first time BA predicted someone alive would be scum and he did so based upon investigating someone who died during the night. That could simply be the scum trying to get rid of a claim they believed (zombie curer).
I had an expectation as soon as I saw numbers was dead: either Bad Ash would have re-investigated you or me and claim it was to check if we had become zombies (in which case, I would have immediately voted him) or he would actually put himself out there and give us the result of someone alive, in which case I would have a lot of thinking to do.
Here's how it breaks down for me. We started with 21. The town had one role that was purely negative (CG who would die if six other people died without him being targeted by the doctor) and there was also Noodle who started as a neutral with no win condition and then ascended into a survivor, which is traditionally viewed as anti-town in the end game. Then we have killed 4 zombies and a mafia goon.
That's already 7 lynches taken up to get rid of people for town to win, plus CG who was basically had a sand clock on his time in the game that needed the doctor to turn it over every so often.
How many scum are likely to be left in addition to all of that? I'm leaning towards assuming there are 1-2 scum left and that Bad Ash is playing straight. It just feels like it's awfully punishing if out of 21 the town had to lynch 9 to win, and that's what we're talking about if Bad Ash is making a play for the win today.
I think that Flubb trying to save Jcakes yesterday makes him look super bad. It also seems to me that DJ and Jcakes wanted us to believe zombies and mafia are separate factions ... but what if they are the same faction? Obviously DJ and Jcakes were throwing out a bunch of WIFOM and misinformation. Believing there is two anti-town factions is the only reason we even doubt BA. Flubb defending Jcakes yesterday is what I keep coming back to.
I think just the numbers of town and anti-town that we know plus how flubb behaved yesterday and finally the zombies all trying their hardest to convince us that they were separate from the mafia ... to me that leaves me leaning towards believing Bad Ash like 55-60%.
I know that these thinking through things in text posts aren't always well receieved, but I'd like to know what Laarz and Moar specifically think about my thoughts here. You two and Bad Ash are on my probable townie list, and obviously Bad Ash is a biased source to examine my thinking.