OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

The cop isn't reliable until s/he can point out the special townie roles while the cop and those roles are still alive. Since the cop or those roles might be murdered, waiting to lynch is absurd.

Isn't it a bit suspicious to demand that the cop reveals himself AND the other significant townies to the mafia before you can trust him?



 
Well, a mafia can pretend as long as it doesn't come down to particulars. Even if the real cop should refute the false cop's claims, how would the rest of the town know the difference between the two? The cop does not have to reveal himself or herself, but giving out subtle hints when the mafia is looking is difficult.
 
As for water_moon, I can say this. She is DEFINITELY a role-player. She's was surprised at first that anyone is even considering lynching. See her first post for the day (post #84). She's voting in character. Or she's mafia and trying to protect the mafia members and slow us down. But she's not very high on my suspicious list (and not just because she's my wife).

As for who could be the Village Idiot, Thyiad and Rashiminos are acting VERY suspiciously in my mind. So I'm going to avoid voting for either of them for now. I'm going to go with one of my earlier suspicions.

Vote: GoHabsGo
 
Note here how muzzz has put a couple of popular votees on his suspect list as well as the guy who was randomly firing off and accusing a guy that muzzz wishes to claim as an innocent villager. Strange, very strange...

I'm not claiming you're innocent, just thinking it for now. And personally I find voting for someone who thinks you're innocent a bit peculiar as well. I can't come up with a reason why you'd do so if you were mafia, but still...

I also think you're dismissing peculiar strategies the mafia might employ a little too quickly. The numbers speak for themselves, in favor of killing. I agree with you on that one. But this game, or at least this first day, is weird. There's no denying that. Perhaps it's just a coincidence, and I'm jumping on the bandwagon of reading too much into it. But still...

Ugh... I'm starting to undermine my own confidence with all this back-and-forth reasoning. I'm sticking to my vote for now, but keeping my eyes open.



 
Seriously. Stop editing your posts.

I hate double-posting, I'll admit it!

I have some ideas about some other roles, but I'm not going to point the mafia at them.

I'm not claiming you're innocent, just thinking it for now. And personally I find voting for someone who thinks you're innocent a bit peculiar as well. I can't come up with a reason why you'd do so if you were mafia, but still...

I also think you're dismissing peculiar strategies the mafia might employ a little too quickly. The numbers speak for themselves, in favor of killing. I agree with you on that one. But this game, or at least this first day, is weird. There's no denying that. Perhaps it's just a coincidence, and I'm jumping on the bandwagon of reading too much into it. But still...

I find your suspect list peculiar in that it includes Jaago, whom I voted, but you did not give your own reason for, and RK, who voted for me rather randomly. This is peculiar to me since it occurred right after you "thought" of Sint and me as non-mafia. It seems like you're trying to cover yourself after this day and the next night are over.


 
This is a broadcast message to the doctor if s/he is reading. Don't bother saving me tonight. I deserve whatever foul tricks the mafia has in store.
 
I find your suspect list peculiar in that it includes Jaago, whom I voted, but you did not give your own reason for, and RK, who voted for me rather randomly. This is peculiar to me since it occurred right after you "thought" of Sint and me as non-mafia. It seems like you're trying to cover yourself after this day and the next night are over.

I did give my reasons for suspecting the people I do. If you've read my post a little more careful, you'd have seen that I was trying to set up a "profile" of how I'm expecting the mafia to act. Those people seemed to fit said profile. Maybe I need to start choosing my words a little more carefully, or I'll end up spending more time explaining myself than figuring out who to lynch.

I'm not sure I understand the rest of you're post completely. Are you trying to say that I'm going "Sint and Rashiminos are innocent" just so noone will suspect me if either of you get killed? At least in your case that'd make very little sense. Your vote for me will put me under scrutiny if you get offed anyway.



 
You do realize that by saying what you just said, if the mafia does not murder you tonight you look like a mafia member?

Yes, I do. The failure of having 5 non-voters after 48 hours of day 1 is getting to me though. This prophecy may come true...

Well, all I can really say about not revealing townie/mafia upon death is that I hope the Cop is born under a lucky sign, else the mob is winning the charm.

Yes, I'm quoting myself, sue me.


 
You do realize that by saying what you just said, if the mafia does not murder you tonight you look like a mafia member?

Which makes him sound quite a bit like the village idiot. His desire to be lynched is further exemplified by his new avatar. Anyway, in the first game the cop (adzizents iirc) said something similar, but apparently the mafia weren't paying a lot of attention. So he wasn't murdered, nor did the townsfolk lynch him then (they did that only later).

And on Rashiminos' point of cop revelation:
As to when the cop should reveal him-/herself, I think it's quite irrelevant that the cop would be able to identify night roles on the town side, but at least one, preferably two and even better three mafiosi would be necessary. Even then, a mafioso could identify three townies as mafiosi and it would be hard to spot the difference. Still, I don't think that apart from the real cop, the mafiosi, and the village idiot, it would make a lot of sense for anyone to pose as the cop.



 
My avatar does not signify my desire to be lynched personally, only my belief that we must lynch at every opportunity, regardless of the risk.
 
*looks up at the still-bright sun*

You've been around for quite a while, haven't you? Do you want dessert or something before you go to bed?

*starts throwing cookies skyward*
 
Rashiminos is reminding me of me in the last round. I'm back from vacation so I don't have time to write 3.5 page word documents on mafia :grin: , but I hope to have some time to get a little logic in. And I have to say I understand some of the odd comments he making out of frustration.

First a lot of people are saying that its dangerous to lynch we might kill the village idiot. I have to disagree. If anything you're less likely to kill the village idiot today than later on because today you will have the most people available to lynch, thus odds are lower. This is of course assuming the mafia don't score a lucky hit on the village idiot tonight. You can weigh that as you wish, but I don't think the idiot would be stupid enough to blantantly make himself suspicious. Remember the mafia know who the mafia are, thus they can easily kill any townie looking mildly suspicious.

Second, a lot of people are saying that since the mafia gave us a free day, we should just save it. I really don't get this. The only way we win is by lynching the mafia, why not get one extra try? Do you really think finding out who the mafia kill tonight is going to shed any amount of light on who the mafia really are? I know I don't. While you are risking killing off the cop/doc, you risk this at every lynching. Also I think I have an idea of who is the cop (or maybe just pretending to be).

So yeah if we lynch we'll probably kill a townie, but I think this is very likely tommorow as well. Yeah we may kill the village idiot and lose, but as I mentioned I think the odds of this happening will go up tommorow (maybe someone can do the math on this).

As far as who to lynch I really don't know. Jaedhann is suspicious, but I think this is a language issue as was last round. I'm also suspicious of Lord Nikon, but I think this is his mildly abrasive style as I also fell into this idea last round. Skunkbelly's aggressive counter to Lord Nikon came off a bit strong, but I've never seen him play a townie before (he definitely didn't do this as mafia round 1). And I'm still worried about Goltar confusing the Village Idiot coinciding with the mafia not killing anyone.

unvote Moar
vote goltar25
 
I'm rethinking my non-vote right now. The math defiantly says not to vote off a townie and the odds of getting one are just so high. On the other hand, pot odds say to vote somebody off because on the off chance that they really are mafia we have much more to gain.

I'm going to vote for a not very active person because I think that there is no reason for the mafia not to lynch anyone the first night. We wouldn't be able to figure out who they were from that anyways.

Unvote: No One
Vote: CDRToast
 
On another note, why does no lynching favour the mafia at this point? As you might be aware, last game I pointed out that it was better to lynch no one than to lynch another townie. The person who jumped on that was Skoolbus, leading me to suspect him as mafia to play the witness card since he'd already voted for me, and I did not want to get lynched, in the end Skoolbus was murdered by the mafia as well (remember the schoolbus?).

I certainly do :grin:.

And to Skoolbus, you mentioned the doctor being active, and it seems pretty obvious (also from what you wrote) the mafia as a group was not active. It could be that the crooked detective by him- or herself did at least send a pm indicating no one would be taken into custody, so everyone would get the chance to discuss matters and make themselves suspect. I feel that by indicating that the doctor was active, the mafia was not, and no word on the rest there is something unbalanced. I'm not sure it's a good idea, but it might be, to reveal whether the others that should pm you each night did so this first night.

I'm not going to tell you which roles did not pm me, and when I said I'd gotten a pm from the doctor, I assumed that everyone else would follow, but I was mistaken.

Also, just so everyone knows, if the village idiot is lynched he/she wins, but you guys won't know this, unless you know from the cop, and the game will continue for second (this is so if you lynch on the first day or two the game isn't over immediately).

I'm going to be editing in a vote tally in a sec (soon as I make it), but please don't edit your posts.

This is quite the mess...
Vote Tally
No Lynch (3)
CDRToast (1)
Rashiminos (1)
RevenantsKnight (2)
Sir Lister of Smeg (1)
muzzz (1)
Jaedhann (2)
water_moon (1)
LORD NIKON (1)
GoHabsGo (1)
goltar25 (1)

Everyone NEEDS to vote, if you don't want to lynch someone, Vote: No Lynch
This is a friendly reminder (not an excuse to point fingers at and mostly for my benefit) to the following people to vote:
Jaedhann
Drixx
Moar
CDRToast
Sint Nikolaas (if you get back in time)
TouchOfInsanity
water_moon

Also, day one is going to be extended until approximately 18 hours from now or 30 hours from now (if enough nonvoters vote before the 18 hour mark, that's when day 1 will end).



 
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Ok,

Didn't realize I had to specifify No Lynch. I think after consideration, I'm gonna go with : [highlight]Vote RevenantsKnight[/highlight]
 
Well this isn't going anywhere. I'm voting for skunkbelly just to make him talk.

unvote goltar25
vote skunkbelly


Also I'm not voting Revenantknight because he's too suspicious. He's my top candidate for the idiot. Good thing Noodle isn't in this round or we'd have a tough time weeding the idiot out :thumbsup:
 
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