OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Damn I'm stupid - w_m of course was a townie. Anyone know a good remedial reading course?
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

A bit of elimination:

Naz andmyself have claimed to be cautious townies.

maatiarna, Thyiad, goltar, and puresummon have claimed to be drunk townies.

Ray has claimed to be the goon.

Taking these claims at face value for the sake of argument, that leaves 5 players: Serdash, Merlin, Bob, lukin, and firebananazzzz - 2 of which must be power roles (Doc and Snoop), as we haven'tlost any yet, 1 of which must be a bad guy (probably 2 - I'm sure there has been falsification and greed happening), and only 1 (maybe 2) a plain old townie.

I am thinking that if our luck holds and we don't lose any power roles, it may soon be time for a mass reveal, which will force any bad guys to make a false claim with no room left to hide, which will leave them stranded - either we guess right and lynch them, or guess wrong and expose their false claim, and lynch them the following day. Even if they false claim a plain townie, with no one opposing a claim for the two power roles, we will be able to trust the Snoop, who will hopefully have some idea which plain townies aren't quite so plain. The one big downer I can see is I don't like outing the doc, but he/she must come out if we are to corner a false claiming mafia/cop.

For mine, I believe all of the 4 drunks - 2 of them spotted NacRuno, 2 spotted Ray. I don't believe any bad guy would pose as a drunk based on a guess, the odds are too high against them, and they would be easily contradicted if wrong. The only way it could be carried off is if a bad cop was subject to a greed attempt, and thus knew for certain a rival mafia member. The thing is, if this scenario were true, then we would have all 3 rival mafia dead, which is impossible as there were two NK's the night after we lynched the third one (unless the cops falsified someone as rival mafia, meaning all 3 cops are dead, meaning noone now living could be one, again making the scenario impossible). So thus, in my book, goltar and maatiarna are definitely in the clear, as they were the original spotters of Nac and Ray. The second spotters would also be guessing if they were bad guys, betting against the person being a drunk (and once again being easily contradicted if wrong). Thyiad is in the clear for me on this basis. The only one not in the clear is puresummon, as his claim to see Ray came after Ray's hint-dropping that he was the Goon. For the moment though I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Summary: goltar, Thyiad, and maatiarna are definitely townies, puresummon probably is, but is subject to the same suspicion as Jaedhann (making an easy claim).

Naz, the claimed cautious townie, is 50/50 in my book. While I see the merit in Liq's original defense of him, I can also see merit in the idea that Naz's "slipup" could have been a deliberate ruse. Especially since after being so vocal the first couple of days, he disappeared over the last couple,though I see he has reared his head again today.

I obviously am not going to question my own claim, but it is possibly worrying that no-one else has. Leaving a player right alone, no matter how trustworthy they may appear, is not a good idea in this game. Everyone should have to answer for themselves at some point, otherwise we are leaving a hole for a bad guy to hide in (observe SiTro in a previous round, can't recall which one).

Ray I believe, as if he was lying, I'm sure the real Goon would have contradicted him by now.

So I'm back to the point I made at the start of this post: out of the 5 people not to have made a claim, I believe there are 2 power roles and 2 bad guys. Serdash should be lynched first, as he is not contributing in any way, and is thus a dead weight, even if not a bad guy. If he shows townie, that to me would leave a decent probability that the remaining 4 (Bob, lukin, Merlin, and firebananazzz) are our 2 remaining power roles and 2 remaining bad guys (unless one of Naz or puresummon is lying). If had to guess, I would mark Merlin as the most likely townie of the 4, then lukin, then Bob and fried.

Enjoy peoples.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

lukin said:
One more possible scenario...

Thy is convinced Maatiarna is EotF
Maatiarna is convinced Thy is EotF

I believe they are both townies. I would be willing to vote for Maatiarna because I believe in Thyiad. In any case, we would find out more about them both.

UNVOTE:Puresummon
VOTE: MAATIARNA
Click to expand...

You think that Thyiad and I are both townies but yet you vote for me anyway just because you believe in Thyiad. Well your belief in thyiad is miss placed this time as she is barking up the wrong tree. She should be going after someone that acting really suspicious like Serdash not a drinking townie.

In that being said Jason's monstar post makes sence. So at the moment Thyiad has dropped down my suspicions list. I really do wish that she would get of her high horse as she is not an all powerful being that knows everything:fortuneteller:.

In my mind at the moment Serdash is acting very suspicious. He did not post at all yesterday and therefore did not vote. His votes on day 1 and 2 where both bandwagon votes.

On this evidence I am going to Vote Serdash


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Thyiad said:
I think killing watermoon was a feint to go after Naz.

I'm right people but they couldn't kill me because it would have been *so obvious*.

Will you people listen to me. I am right. You know I am right.

Vote Maatiarna
Click to expand...

Thyiad some a favour and go and read over my posts from the last game. Then see if your thoughts about me being an anti-townie are the same. But I can tell you this you will most likely change your mind on the matter


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Okay, muzzz missed this yesterday, claiming that I hadn't voted, but I'm going to continue along with it for now anyway, since he really hasn't contributed much.

Vote: Serdash

(@ muzzz: in my post #502 I unvoted Pure near the beginning, and voted for Dash at the end, since you've obviously missed it)

@lukin: I really don't like your voting pattern, regardless of the fact that you voted for me at one point... a little suspicious... :scratch:

And I'm still wary of PureSummon, but I'd rather see what Dashy is up to right now.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Jason - My scenario seems as likely as any other. You don't even list it.
If the Doc saved someone, it would have been told come daybreak. I made that same mistake, and someone corrected me. There might very well be only 1 other faction active as an EotF... but we can't be sure.

@lukin - With the post, you grow more suspicious. You cast vote after vote after vote, pointing in many directions at once. This seems like a desperate ploy to me. I had hoped to stay low a bit more, and then hint at a powerrole so I might draw NK attention, but I see people are giving credence to your escape attempts, so here it goes

Lukin was active last night.

I checked with Muzzz if this was possible, since Ray claims to have blocked Lukin, and it is.

A few posts ago, Lukin confessed he didn't have a town powerrole. So what is left?
Let's go lynch us a bad guy people. Vote for Lukin
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Jason - You claimed townie in your post before this, since you said you staid at hoime cautious. Also, you pretty much re-iterate what I posted earlier (the mass reveal). This is not the first time you failed to spot a post of mine and recap what I said... Do you have some Merlin Filter on your computer? :grin:

I believe you are a townie, because with this many mafia/cops dead, they should be trying to steer us towards making unnecessary kills. Lukin is trying this by casting his vote for your wife, whom he believed to be innocent a few posts before (post 526). You have asserted that you think both are pretty much innocent, never mind Thyiad's odd posting pattern.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sorry about my delay on posting guys. Double shifts at work = teh suckage.

So my lack of a post on the previous day is actually concerning me quite a bit. The previous night I decided to go out drinking and I saw PureSummon out at night.

I know this evidence is bad to display on the day AFTER when I should have presented it, but better late than never, right?

I know it's also going to be harder for people to accept since I hadn't voted or posted, and some seem to find my activity suspicious, but I'm sticking to my "I'm kinda busy with Real Life" argument, since it's the only one I actually have.

That's why I choose...

Vote: PureSummon
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin The Wizzard said:
Jason - You claimed townie in your post before this, since you said you staid at hoime cautious. Also, you pretty much re-iterate what I posted earlier (the mass reveal). This is not the first time you failed to spot a post of mine and recap what I said... Do you have some Merlin Filter on your computer? :grin:

I believe you are a townie, because with this many mafia/cops dead, they should be trying to steer us towards making unnecessary kills. Lukin is trying this by casting his vote for your wife, whom he believed to be innocent a few posts before (post 526). You have asserted that you think both are pretty much innocent, never mind Thyiad's odd posting pattern.
Click to expand...

Yes, I have a Merlin filter. I mean, after your pre-game statement that I was a good player, I knew you wouldn't be offering much in the way of a considered opinion.:wink:

Seriously though, I did kind of speed read the posts before mine, due to maatiarna bugging me to get off the computer. Then I go and write a monster post anyway. I did see your mass reveal request, immediately after I posted mine. Anyway, I hope you won't take it amiss, but I believe I went into a little more depth than your good self on why it was a good idea. I do also have a history of requesting mass reveals (see round 5, where I was the Cop), so in my own conceited little world, I regard myself as the rightful owner of all requests for mass role reveals in SPF mafia games.

Now, onto business. Since Merlin appears to be claiming a power role, and I can only assume it would be the Snoop, I believe it is time for lukin to fess up - is he drunk, cautious, doc, or scum? I believe it to be the latter, so

unvote Serdash
vote lukin

I've had Merlin pegged as probably a power role for a while, as his manner of posting suggested someone who put a little more thought into the way things were going,possibly that he even had a little more info. Mind you, I thought the same about w_m, but she has shown in the past to be a conscientious player, and 1 out of 2 ain't too bad.

So let me re-summarise the current standings in light of recent revelations:

aman was killed on night 1, revealed as an undercover cop.

Zhao Yue was killed on night 1, revealed as townie.

Sir Lister of Smeg was lynched on day 1, after being spotted active by Liq. Revealed as rival mafia.

SiTro replaced azador, and was killed on night two, reveald as undercover cop.

NacRuno lynched on day 2 after being spotted by goltar on night 1 and Thyiad on night 2. Revealed as rival mafia.

Liquid_Evil was killed on night 3 after leading two successful lynches of rival mafia. Revealed as townie. As a drunk, spotted Lister out on night 1.

Magicboy was lynched on day 3, after some scatter-gun voting. Revealed as rival mafia.

Sint Nikolaas was killed on night 4, revealed as undercover cop (on falsified evidence in the opinion of many). Claimed to be a cautious townie, and to have used his ability on night 2.

Nolecub was killed on night 4, revealed as townie (to the surprise of some,including myself).

Jaedhann was lynched on day 4, after some more scatter-gun voting, and a push from myself to hit the non-contributors. Revealed as townie. As a drunk, spotted Thyiad on night 2.

water_moon was killed on night 5, revealed as townie.

Thyiad is still alive. Claims to be a drunk townie, and to have spotted NacRuno on night 2. Spotted by Jaedhann on night 2.

maatiarna is still alive. Claims to be a drunk townie, and to have spotted Ray Patean on night 3.

goltar25 is still alive. Claims to be a drunk townie, and to have spotted NacRuno on night 1.

Puresummon is still alive. Claims to be a drunk townie, and to have spotted Ray Patean on night 4. Serdash claims to have seen him on the same night.

Serdash is still alive (thanks to the fall of my $5 note:wink:). Claims to be a drunk townie, and to have seen Puresummon on night 4, the same night Puresummon claims to have seen Ray Patean.

Nazdakka is still alive. Claims to be a cautious townie (by default). Has not claimed to have used his ability as yet.

Jason Maher is still alive (well, derr...). Claims to be a cautious townie, and to have used his ability on night 5.

Ray Patean is still alive, and claims the role of Goon. No-one has as yet counter-claimed. Spotted by maatiarna on night 3 and Puresummon on night 4.

Merlin The Wizzard is still alive, and has seemingly claimed to be either the Snoop or a drunk townie. Claims to have seen lukin active on night 5.

lukin is still alive, and has made no claim, other than not being a power role. Spotted by Merlin on night 5.

BobTheWarrior is still alive, and has made no role claim as yet.

friedbananazzzz is still alive, and has made no role claim as yet.

So we have 3 people to have not claimed a role, with possibly 4 spots up for grabs (Assuming I'm wrong about MErlin being the Snoop). These are doc, rival mafia #4, real undercover cop #3, and possibly Snoop. Given that I don't think a town power rolewould claim drunk or cautious, I believe Merlin is the Snoop, one of lukin, Bob, or fried is the doc, and two of lukin, fried, Bob, Pure, Naz, and Serdash are scum. To explain the last 3 names, Pure seems the most dubious of the drunk claims (named Ray after Ray's Goon claim), Serdash is also dubious for the same reason Jaedhann was (unavoidable, as he acknowledges), while Naz I'm still confused about due to his near absence for two days, which seems very out of character.

So here is my suggested plan of action: at the risk of knocking off the doc, but seeking the greater reward of winning the game, I believe lukin, Bob, and fried should be the next 3 to go. After that, if the game is still going, the next 3 would be Pure, Serdash, and Naz. As for the rest, goltar, maatiarna, Thyiad, and myself are expendable. Ray and Merlin are I believe power roles and should be left alone, however it is likely both will be NKed before we get to that point.

Straying a little off topic, to answer a question goltar posed yesterday - yes, I fully appreciate the demands of a little one and being married. I didn't intend to convey the impression that few posts = kill now, I intended to convey the impression that no contribution = kill now. In goltar's terms, no quality = bye bye. No quality or quantity = bye bye NOW.


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I think you missed Ray blocking lukin in your round up, Jas.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin--If you know that Lukin was active and he confessed to not having a powerrole, then I see no reason not to

Vote: Lukin

@Dash--Dash, it makes sense that you would have seen me out at night, as that was the night I was out late drinking and spotted Ray. See my posts in response to fried and lukin's accusations.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Meh - These days, I basically try to keep my post length in check, after thyiad came with the TLDR comments earlier, and I won the SPF oscar for being the spammiest poster (Yay me). I figured my explanation of the mass reveal was to the point enough, anyways.

Very well, I'll come clean. I am the town Snoop.
Here is my snooping history : Night 1 I opted to check on Nazdakka , based on his previous game performance. He was not active This is part of the reason I backed him up with his plan on day 1.
Night 2 I checked on NacRuno. He was indeed active, but right of the bat on the next day, thyiad claimed the same thing, so there was no need to add my vote.
Night 3 I checked on Liquid, so I could put any lingering suspicions to rest on the next day. Alas, I could have foreseen he would be Nightkilled. Night 4 I went after Sint, and he was nightkilled as well. How annoying. So this night, I decided to check up on Lukin, and he showed up active.

So far his defense is quite pathetic and smacks of panic. FYI, right now, I'd say Ray is a powerful role indeed, as he is capable of 100% block now, provided he chooses the right person. He chose Lukin. That alone should provide plenty of information...

One other important point : DO NOT FORGET THE GREED ABILITY. So far, goltar, jason and Nazdakka are flying below radar. I have stated before that, if I were the mafia, I'd use my ability on a person who has come clean as being a townie, so that the suspicion is off and the chance of a succesful turning is very high.

For those of you who keep track of these things, the last mafia game in the community forum ended as a clear win for the mafia - Because Jaago had been investigated and come clean, but turned out to have the traitor role. An important lesson can be learned there...
The greed ability is in fact quite similar. Likely candidates are early townie claims, and as such, Goltar and Thyiad spring to mind.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin - the greed ability must have already been used, otherwise there would be no-one left to use it (unless the cops foolishly falsified someone as rival mafia, meaning there'd be none of them left now). As I believe there is almost certainly 1 of each left, I would presume greed has already been used, probably on either night 3 by Magicboy, or maybe on night 1, though that of course leaves them unable to convert a trusted townie.

To whoever the doc is - tonight would be a good time to save Merlin.

Good to see someone throw a little bit of the spotlight on those getting an easy ride, even if that does include myself.


lukin I believe is dirty - Merlin saw him out, Ray blocked him, and if he was a drunk or cautious, he would have out and said it straight up - especially if he was a drunk and prevented from spotting someone. His failure to complain about being blocked speaks volumes.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote: Lukin

I've given my reasons for believing, and now someone saw him out at night. Good enough reason to vote in my book.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Current voting:

lukin - 3 (Merlin, Jason, Pure)
Serdash - 2 (maatiarna, fried)
Puresummon - 1 (Serdash)
maatiarna - 2 (Thyiad, lukin)
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Grrrr! The perils of using quick reply. Make that:

lukin - 4 (Merlin, Jason, Pure, Ray)
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin don't take my TLDR comments to heart. My opinion of the first couple of days posts are that they are just idle speculation. They become interesting after a few days when you know a few roles.Then you can look at them with some insight. I actually re-read all the early stuff, but I just feel it isn't worth it early on.

I'll give Merlin the benefit of the doubt and help lynch lukin. Obviously if he doesn't come up dirty, Merlin dies tomorrow or I go back to my initial suspicion of marty.

Unvote maatiarna

Vote lukin
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I don't know which of you decided to kill my wife. But I plan on seeing you lynch, if not doing it personally once we find you.

Before I start too much of a rant, I'll focus on today's business. Normally, I'd hold my vote off for a bit longer, but the odds right now are severely in favor of lukin being one of our remaining enemies.

Vote: lukin

As for everyone else and what to do. At this point, I'm inclined to believe everyone's claims thus far. This leaves Bob and friedb as unknowns. If lukin really is an enemy, and everyone is telling the truth, then one of them is the doctor and one is an enemy. Therefore, we have no drinkers left. If the rivals have used greed on someone who has already claimed using their townie ability, then that moves the enemy into the upper group and leaves one townie out of the two unknowns. That means at most we have one more drinker. Very easy for the remaining enemy to just lay low for a night and be in the clear.

Geh, took too long to write everything, have to go to work. I'll finish my thoughts later.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote: lukin based on Merlin's and Ray's actions.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

goltar25 said:
I don't know which of you decided to kill my wife. But I plan on seeing you lynch, if not doing it personally once we find you.

Before I start too much of a rant, I'll focus on today's business. Normally, I'd hold my vote off for a bit longer, but the odds right now are severely in favor of lukin being one of our remaining enemies.

Vote: lukin

As for everyone else and what to do. At this point, I'm inclined to believe everyone's claims thus far. This leaves Bob and friedb as unknowns. If lukin really is an enemy, and everyone is telling the truth, then one of them is the doctor and one is an enemy. Therefore, we have no drinkers left. If the rivals have used greed on someone who has already claimed using their townie ability, then that moves the enemy into the upper group and leaves one townie out of the two unknowns. That means at most we have one more drinker. Very easy for the remaining enemy to just lay low for a night and be in the clear.

Geh, took too long to write everything, have to go to work. I'll finish my thoughts later.
Click to expand...

Perfect smokescreen if you killed her in the night Goltar. Allthough that might lead to some trouble RL :P

If lukin is an EotF (and I believe so), there is only one enemy left. If (s)he stays low, it becomes a lynch game. And with all the information available to the townies, coupled with the many still alive, it shouldn't pose too much of a problem to ferret the last enemy out...


 
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