OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

There is one other person who has avoided suspicion all game (at least since day one) and has been very quiet since. He didn't vote at all last round and was also one of the three to change his vote after Nac claimed goon.

Nazdakka.

To me, both Naz and Friedbananazz are the two most likely candidates for greed. Naz is more likely since I believe he came out with his ability early (although I haven't done my research yet on this one.) I think all three of the original mafia members and two of the original cops are dead. Sint voted rather strangely, but I don't think he was an undercover cop.

I am sticking with Friedbananazz for right now, but would easily shift to Naz if anyone would like to go in that direction because they are the most sketchy at this point.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Thyiad said:
I'm a bit confused why there aren't two kills per night? I thought both factions got to kill. Anyway, Sint could have been the result of a vendetta kill as he opened the voting on me in #355.
Click to expand...

I don't think it was a vendetta kill because greed is too powerful an ability to pass up. However there are two reasons the groups aren't doing two NK's per night.

1) The town/Goon has have used stay cautious or blocked the killers. Somehow, I doubt this. The stay cautious ability is random, Ray has already said that he has been fairly unsuccessful. Perhaps one of the nights the kill was blocked, but not two.

2) They aren't killing anyone because it is too risky. Drinking has already outed several mafia members. Perhaps they are waiting it out until most if not all the town has finished drinking similar to what Ray and I (and a few others) suggested they might do if the town were to follow Naz's plan.


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Ehm... Remember the doc? The poor fella might very well have saved someone's life, you know. And you are suggesting they are laying low after two NK's last night? I highly doubt it. The most vocal people for the town faction (Sint and Liquid) have both been NK'd. NK'ing, to me, has always seemed like a far more sound strategy then just laying low. Particularly in light of the succesful lynching streak so far (three lynches.. three dead rival mafia). No, that doesn't fly.

Next, you think Fried and Nazdakka are suspicious because they withdrew their vote from Nac when he claimed to be a townie? Why on earth is this suspicious? And why did you not list my name as one of those three people? (I withdrew my vote from Nac because of Sint's explanation and the odd roleclaim by Jaedhann).
Lukin, at the moment you seem to be trying to throw the town off, and I am not liking it. Not liking it one bit. I'll keep my eye on you.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin The Wizzard said:
Ehm... Remember the doc? The poor fella might very well have saved someone's life, you know. And you are suggesting they are laying low after two NK's last night? I highly doubt it. The most vocal people for the town faction (Sint and Liquid) have both been NK'd. NK'ing, to me, has always seemed like a far more sound strategy then just laying low. Particularly in light of the succesful lynching streak so far (three lynches.. three dead rival mafia). No, that doesn't fly.

Next, you think Fried and Nazdakka are suspicious because they withdrew their vote from Nac when he claimed to be a townie? Why on earth is this suspicious? And why did you not list my name as one of those three people? (I withdrew my vote from Nac because of Sint's explanation and the odd roleclaim by Jaedhann).
Lukin, at the moment you seem to be trying to throw the town off, and I am not liking it. Not liking it one bit. I'll keep my eye on you.
Click to expand...

If the doc saved someone, we would know it. Muzzz clarified that earlier when Sint alluded to being the doc. Last night, I think both factions were out in force. Earlier, however, that was not the case. The fact that we have had three successful lynchings and two of them were the result of drinking only serves to prove my point. Night Killing only works if you aren't going to get spotted.

I think one of them are townie because they were given the chance to try and change their vote and they did. When Nac's plan fell through, they promptly changed it back. I did not include you in that list because I believe you to be a townie. You changed your vote because of Sint's explanation, they changed because of Nac's dubious ultimately false role claim. I am highly suspicious of the other two.

As for me throwing the town off...I don't think the town is anywhere near in sync today. It seems almost everyone has a vote to their name. Fried, me, Thyiad, among others. Yesterday, I said I was going to come out with my list of suspicious people as soon as I had the time to build a case against them. I have done that. This will be my last post for around 14 hours and then I will be adding more once I get off work.


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Well, I thought of another possibility last night, and told water_moon I'd post it this morning. I thought more about it and it doesn't work, but in the interest of keeping things fair I'm going to post it anyway.

What if the rivals used greed on one of the cops and they got a rivals name? Then, rather than immediately outing them, they instead pushed a lynch on them? Last night (I was tired), this seemed plausible. But with 2 kills last night, and the death reveals as they have been, it doesn't add up.

Nothing else to say yet, just wanted to get that posted while I remembered it.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Ok now, I have a plan for the town. First, everyone has to present a suspect list. Then everyone has to vote for someone on that suspect list, but must make sure it is not someone on someone else's suspect list who has already been voted for. Then muzzz will have to figure which of 10 people with 1 vote each should die. The great advantage of this approach that thanks to muzzz's assurance that someone will die no matter what, it is purely a game of attrition, and eventually we'll knock off those last two baddies without even having to think.

No wait - I think I'm too slow. Everyone has already cottoned on to this wonderful plan and put it into action. How's about we make a stab at some sort of unified action here people?! Everyone chasing their own pet theory down their own little hidey-hole won't win us the game,it will hand the bad guys the only chance they have of escaping the disastrous start they have had to this game.

So in that spirit, I'm going to do a Liq - everyone vote now for one of Jaedhann or Serdash. Both of them have contributed next to nothing thus far, save for a dubious drinking claim from Jaedhann. Whichever one of these clowns doesn't go today goes tomorrow. I haven't seen either of them out, as I'm not a drinker, but they both smell rotten to me, and I'm sure one of them will turn up bad.

After tomorrow - I would suggest Bob keeps working on earning our favour, he is living on borrowed time.

Now allow me to help our slightly confused friend Thyiad, who has suggested she may be mafia by claiming Sint's death was a vendetta kill for voting against her. I sincerely hope she mis-typed that line for her own sake. For those who missed it (see post #457):

Sint could have been the result of a vendetta kill as he opened the voting on me in #355. Doesn't help my case but I'll point it out anyway. (emphasis added)
Click to expand...

Allow me to explain. The only way Sint could be vendetta killed for opening the voting on you is if you are a member of the rival mafia. Which would also mean a failed night kill - as the vendetta is an extra kill. Which would also mean there is no fourth mafia. Which would also mean the cops falsified one of the 3 already dead mafia. Which would also mean all 3 cops are dead (after last night). So if I were Thyiad, I would be hoping that there are two kills tonight. A couple of single-kill nights, and this theory goes from being far-fetched to not looking very good for Thyiad.

And as for her question leading to this bizarre suggestion, there are two night kills per night. But there are also cautious townies, a Doc, and a Goon, all of which in their own way can prevent a kill.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Don't worry about it. Thyiad's theory doesn't match, since I am the one who opened voting on her. Right on the first day after her first post.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I’m getting a little tired of being badgered into posting more. I could spam this thread, but then I’d be accused of being a NCP (non-content poster). I prefer to take my time, organize my thoughts, and make intelligent posts. I could post an opinion about everyone after each post they make, or I can make one post that gives all my opinions. Quality > Quantity. When I have something to say that’s relevant, I’ll say it. I had thought of posting individual responses many times, but after writing my response and re-reading it, it didn’t seem constructive, so why post it? I’m sure someone will argue with this paragraph…

Frankly, I’m not enthralled with this round of mafia. The killing parties seem to have significant power and the townies have been nerfed. Both night groups had definitive information provided to them at the beginning of the game (i.e. they both learned who their partners were.) The day players on the other hand, have no way to learn any concrete piece of information beyond killing someone. No Thief, no real Cop, no Masons. We’re just a bunch of drunks pointing fingers at each other. We’ve done well, better than I expected, but it could’ve gone much worse. If we’d decided not to believe Liquid and lynched him instead, I think the death toll for the townies would’ve been much higher. Also the fact that we’re all ‘familia’ instead of ‘townies’ has confused me at least once. It’s annoying.

Therefore, I have resorted to doing nothing more than providing my opinion of how people are acting. I’ve played ½ of the games in the SPF, all of the games in the Community, and the one game in the PAL forum. I’ve read all of the games past SPF games as well, two of them as they were happening, so I have the advantage of being able to spot when someone isn’t acting like I expect, that’s the only advantage I have in this round. I can’t follow the might-be-cop-turned-mafia-killer-vendetta-greed-townie-revenge-EotF-whatever logic.

I notice the current trend is to kill the non-posters. Nearly every vote standing as of now is for someone who hasn’t posted much, except for a few votes on Thyiad. So, it would appear that everyone that’s posting is trusted enough by everyone else that is posting to start going after the non-posters. That’s a complicated way of saying what Jason said, start picking off from the bottom and see when/if we win.

Since I don’t have a better plan, let’s go with that. I’ll vote Jaedhann since we’ll actually learn something if he dies because he claimed to have been drinking one night, I think.

Vote: Jaedhann
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote: Jaedhann

I can go with this plan. Jaedhann and Dash were both on my suspicious person list from yesterday, and neither of them have done anything to get off of it.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin The Wizzard said:
Note, it may be possible if the factions get to declare their actions first, and that Muzz then executes them both. In other words, that Sint gets his kill because he declared it. I guess the only one who can answer that one is Muzzz, but I doubt it works that way.
Click to expand...

Actually, it does work that way. Otherwise we could end up with all sorts of weirdness if both rival factions target eachother on the same night.

Jason Maher said:
Muzz wouldn't be a swine and make us play it out amongst ourselves - or would he? :wink:
Click to expand...

Only if people keep doubting me. :rolleyes:

Vote tally up next.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Code: 
Vote #  Voter         Prev votee  votee         
     1  W_m                       Thyiad        
     2  Thyiad                    Thyiad        
     3  Jaedhann                  Thyiad        
     4  Ray                       Lukin         
     5  PureSummon                Lukin         
     6  Jason                     Lukin         
     7  Jason         Lukin       
     8  Jason                     Jaedhann      
     9  Lukin                     Friedbananaz  
    10  Friedbananaz              PureSummon    
    11  Thyiad        Thyiad      
    12  Maatiarna                 Serdash       
    13  Merlin                    Jaedhann      
    14  Thyiad                    Maatiarna     
    15  Bob                       Jaedhann      
    16  PureSummon                Jaedhann

Jaedhann      4  
Lukin         2  
Thyiad        2  
Friedbananaz  1  
Maatiarna     1  
PureSummon    1  
Serdash       1  

Not voting:
Goltar
Naz
Serdash
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Well then Bob, if you don't want to go after the non-posters, then please present an alternative course of action for the town. I will admit that your few posts have been full of content, so you don't fit into that category. The only ones who fit there are Serdash, Jaedhann, and arguably Thyiad, though as has been said, she outed a confirmed mafia, so that is protecting her for the moment. It was easy to pick Jaedhann and Serdash, they have each contributed sweet nothing. Basically vote and run and a few wise cracks. They are not aiding the town, so get rid of them. After that, well maybe the Snoop can help us with a list of people out on consecutive nights. There are possibly 5 left, 3 power-roles and two bad-guys, 4 if you assume the Snoop isn't dumb enough to "snoop" themselves. Possibly there's a drunk or two left who may give us more concrete information. But until then, non-contributers go.

There is usually a couple of mafia who lie low, and another couple who go on the attack. Thus far we have had Lister and SiTro as a low-liers, whereas Sint, NacRuno, magicboy have been anything but (aman didn't survive long enough, but does anyone think he would have lain low?). There's a decent probability of there being another low-lier, especially given the precarious situation both bad groups are in. So it is high time Serdash and Jaedhann in particular spoke up.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Jason - You confuse me. If I read it right from Muzzz's rules in the first post, the snoop gets to pick one person to spy on each night. So (s)he may pick you tonight, and then see if you are active or not. It's not like the snoop is nothing more then a serial drunkee...
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Code: 
Vote #  Voter         Prev votee  votee         
     1  W_m                       Thyiad        
     2  Thyiad                    Thyiad        
     3  Jaedhann                  Thyiad        
     4  Ray                       Lukin         
     5  PureSummon                Lukin         
     6  Jason                     Lukin         
     7  Jason         Lukin       
     8  Jason                     Jaedhann      
     9  Lukin                     Friedbananaz  
    10  PureSummon    Lukin       
    11  Friedbananaz              PureSummon    
    12  Thyiad        Thyiad      
    13  Maatiarna                 Serdash       
    14  Merlin                    Jaedhann      
    15  Thyiad                    Maatiarna     
    16  Bob                       Jaedhann      
    17  PureSummon                Jaedhann

Missed an unvote by PureSummon in the previous table. Results are still the same, of course.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Yes, the snoop gets to pick one person a night, but if they pick the same person on consecutive nights, or take advantage of the drunks' work and investigate someone already spotted, they can gather far more useful information (i.e. someone out more than once is a power role or bad guy, someone out once is a plain townie, unless one of the former stayed home for some unknown reason). The other possibility is a drunk could spot someone already seen by the snoop, thus confirming to the snoop either a power role or bad guy. The snoop could also investigate a claimed drunk or cautious townie and find out if they are telling the truth or not as well.

The Snoop is pretty much a serial drinker, only they specify who they see, rather than it being random. I posted earlier about the fact you can't conclude anything from spotting someone once. You have to either spot them active and then inactive (townie) or active twice (power role or bad guy). Obviously if someone shows up inactive the first time, there's no real need to look again.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Am I on your ignore list people?

Can you not SEE how Marti has cuddle up to Sint. You know. The Rival Mafia. The people we are trying to kill. Go and read my post again. I spent hours trawling through this thread. Jesh.

I'm ashamed to be part of this family.

@Merlin/Jason - I knew that line didn't look good for me but I won't hide bits that I think are relevent. Even if I get it wrong.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Jason Maher said:
Aha! Thyiad is Noodle in disguise!
Click to expand...
dear god, that makes sense!!

(reading up, will catch up sortly, hadn't noticed that lurkin was also marked by Sint)

BTW, why would Lurkin recuit magicboy (in the stead of Nacruno) if some one had already called him out? That's just stupid, first off there's no telling if he's a power role and second off he's drawn suspicion. You want the dude who's been nearly cleared, the one no one suspects any more, preferably one who's announced their drinking so you know they're family. And mboy was suspicious from the start.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

lukin said:
There is one other person who has avoided suspicion all game (at least since day one) and has been very quiet since. He didn't vote at all last round and was also one of the three to change his vote after Nac claimed goon.

Nazdakka.
Click to expand...
He also went straight for Lister. To unvote in the face of a reasonable explination makes sense. A lot more sense than his original plan, maybe yur on to somethin, hun. Though his lack of voting yesterday makes me uneasy. He could be our turncoat....

This makes more sense to me than fbZ (friedbananazzerz). Or the let's-set-the-bandwagon-rolling-and-see-how-fast-it-can-go-down-hill-from-here... (besides, I try to make a point of not voting for the first person to call me out in a game, retaliation is just silly.)

Vote: Nazdaka Sorry hun, but you do fit the suggestable sort, wanna come clean and rip that bandaid off quick?


@ goltar: I TOLD you, you've been talking in your sleep. And making about as much sense when awake late from the looks of it. Do I need to get Elizabeth all night tonight and let you sleep past 3?



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote Jaedhann

Why?

He's a prety quiet and noncommital player who made a drinking claim that told us nothing, and so quite possibly could have been opportunistic.

@Water_Moon and lukin: I actually unvoted shortly ~2 hours before NacRuno claimed Goon. Also, noone's yet poked a significant hole in my plan, despite W_M constantly suggesting the contrary. We could still implement it now if we wanted to. Finally... two ks, please :grin:

@Jason: A question about your 'lynch Jaedhann' plan: If Jaed was an EotF, why would he claim to have used the drinking ability? That ability gives a perfectly acceptable excuse to be seen outdoors at night, and so an EotF would want to keep that claim in reserve in case they were seen.
 
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