OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Well, yeah, but that's not the point I was making. I'm putting myself in the shoes of the Mafia (yeah, I know, 'Enemies of the family') and thinking "Who would I NK first?". Liquid would be pretty high on my list, but he's still walking and talking. I'm not making a point about myself, I'm making a point about Liquid.

About NacRuno... I can see your POV. He's obviously up to something at night... so he must be a power role or a Bad Guy. Given we have either 2 (possibly 1) dead Bad Guy, 3/7 he's town, 4/7 he isn't. What would be your proposed alternative?

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I brought the voting down on Lister so I'm already a target. If I could have done the vote everyone thing, then I would remain as the *only* target. I'm a townie with no more abilities which makes me worth less than a town power role (or even a townie with an unused role). If their only option is killing me, then the good roles can live on further to use their abilities. That was my original thinking.

Maybe you should have another look at the rules:

Option #2: Vendetta
You get a [highlight]free[/highlight] kill, in addition to your regular nightly kill, against someone who opened up the voting on one of your members.

Doing that would get you killed, but wouldn't benefit the town in any way other than having you gone. And that's only if they choose to use their ability against you. And there's no garauntee that they even chose Vendetta.

I'm not sure anymore if you really are pro-town and saw Lister at night or if you just got really lucky...

----------------------------------

Secondly, i won't deny my activity for the last night. However i do not understand what kind of an explanation you want from me. This is a Mafia game where every role is based on manuplating others. Declaring myself as having a power role will have no effect on the fact that the probality of me telling the truth is only 50%.

So your reason for not claiming a family-role is that you're probably lying? Seriously? That's the worst excuse I've ever heard, regardless of your faction.

 

[Puresummon]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I switched my vote to Liquid yesterday for multiple reasons, but mainly because Lister called Liquid out as being a fellow mafia member. At the time I did not think that maybe Lister was trying to get us to lynch a townie. Instead, I saw it as an opportunity to go ahead and lynch Liquid and possibly get a two-for-one deal. The more I thought about it I decided that it was probably just wishful thinking. Upon deciding this, I did not have the opportunity to get back on and change my vote.

As for the vote today, I am not certain on Nac yet. Thyiad said that she saw him out last night, but who really knows on that point. We only had 1 NK last night, so maybe the role blocker (possibly Nac?) had something to do with it (Muzzz- if the goon acts successfully is that revealed the next day?). I will try to read through the thread and pick up something else, but honestly I am still new to this game and while I feel more comfortable this round, I am still trying to pick up on people's play styles.

One last note, posting the chances of someone being mafia or a power role does not really help anything. Those odds only hold true if we are picking someone at random to lynch. In a situation where there are external influences weighing on your choice, the odds do not work the same way.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Maybe you should have another look at the rules:

Doing that would get you killed, but wouldn't benefit the town in any way other than having you gone. And that's only if they choose to use their ability against you. And there's no garauntee that they even chose Vendetta.

Maybe you should have another look at my post. I know it would get me killed. The idea of my plan was to make it that I was the only choice for that option. They have to choose someone that opens the vote on their members, so if I voted and unvoted everyone, everyday, (before anyone else voted) then I would be the only one that fit that criteria. I've already opened the vote on Lister so am already a candidate for Vendetta. The benefit doesn't lie in my death; it lies in the town keeping all of its power roles in tact. When you've been dealt the hand of pawn in this game, sometimes you've got to sacrafice yourself to keep the king and queen alive. Even in death I'd get the satisfaction of winning if the townies succeed.

And I would venture a 90% likelihood that they will have chosen the Vendetta since it's the better option.

 

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Fried: I don't see any reason for a Bad Guy to gamble like that. Would you put your own life on the line just to divert a lynch toward a player with a strong record of going AWOL mid-game? There's no percentage there.

Puresummon: Probabilities are a not something to run the whole game on, but they're a useful guide. 3/7 tells us that there's a decent chance that NucRuno has a townie power role.

Now I think about it...

Unvote: NacRuno

For now.

Liquid: Why are you so sure that Vendetta is better? The decision doesn't seem to me to be as clear-cut as you say. Given there are townie abilities that people are bound to annouce the use of, I think I'd have gone for Greed, as it has a much better potential payout, although at a greater risk. We saw with the Cult last game just how dangerous recruiting abilities can be.

 

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

(With respect to my first paragraph)

...the other payout is, of course, establishing yourself as townie. It's still not worth the risk IMO.

 

[Puresummon]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz, I certainly agree with you that there is a strong possiblity that Nac has a townie power role. My statement about the percentages was simply that I know some people do not do well with numbers and can be taken in by odds and percentages.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Option #1: Greed. You can try to turn one player to your side. Everything's fine if you target a regular member of the family. If you accidentally pick someone else, they'll walk away with the name of a random member of your group.
Option #2: Vendetta. You get a free kill, in addition to your regular nightly kill, against someone who opened up the voting on one of your members.

Vendetta is a free NK with virtually no strings attached. It gets rid of an enemy and brings the team one step closer to a mob majority. It's a move that requires very little thinking and great success:risk ratio. On the other hand, Greed could be used to some good affect, but an improper use of Greed would be catastrophic. The odds of randomly choosing a non-regular member of the family was better than 1 in 4 at the start of the game. (I say "the start of the game" because it looks like they had to decide which ability they wanted before the first day). A ~26% chance that a name of one of your group members (a third of your total faction) would be released, and subsequently lynched the following day as an enemy, is too great of risk. (Plus most people try to live as long as they can regardless of alliance.) The rival mafia didn't know that townies would come forward immediately as drinkers, and would be good potential Greed targets. And really, the townies that have come forward aren't even especially good targets to me to be honest. I mean does anyone believe goltar, Sint, Jaed, Thy, and me are 100% in the clear? I'd say that 2/5's of that group was incredibly suspicious (Jaed, Thy).

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Maybe you should have another look at my post. I know it would get me killed. The idea of my plan was to make it that I was the only choice for that option. They have to choose someone that opens the vote on their members, so if I voted and unvoted everyone, everyday, (before anyone else voted) then I would be the only one that fit that criteria. I've already opened the vote on Lister so am already a candidate for Vendetta. The benefit doesn't lie in my death; it lies in the town keeping all of its power roles in tact. When you've been dealt the hand of pawn in this game, sometimes you've got to sacrafice yourself to keep the king and queen alive. Even in death I'd get the satisfaction of winning if the townies succeed.

And I would venture a 90% likelihood that they will have chosen the Vendetta since it's the better option.

Which of the two is a better option is simply a matter of opinion. I think they could both be useful.

As far as "sacrificing yourself for the king and queen" goes, with an option like Vendetta in the game, it's just smarter for the family power-roles to simply not open the voting on anyone for the first few days (or at all). The doc and goon can't find any overnight information for the town, so there's no reason they should risk it. The snoop is the only one who could *possibly* gain from this, but I think they're better off laying low and 'investigating' for a few nights before deciding to come out and reveal anything.

 

[Magicboy]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

After flipping through 5 pages of text...

Thyiad: Some people seem to be voting her. I personally think that her day 1 posts were pretty suspicious since they were all a sentence or two and not giving much helpful information. She seems to dislike walls of text which isn't definitely suspicious. (Flipping through 5 pages of text with all of the posts long and saying basically the same thing is quite boring). As for the game aspect though, longer posts = more info = better. Suspicion level: Pretty Suspicious

Nacruno: He has some valid points but didn't bother explain himself too much. He seems to be the "target" right now. However, does everyone really want to risk the 50% odds? Lynching a pro-town power role would (IMO) be really bad. Even lynching a normal townie would take the mafia one step closer to a victory. I'm not saying that he isn't suspicious (because he definitely is), I'm saying that maybe this 2 sights = mafia is carrying out a bit too far. (Considering that Thyiad is also pretty suspicious)
Suspicion level: Pretty Suspicious

Liquid: I completely agree with some peoples' opinions. He seems to be trying to "control" the game and have everything in his favor. I don't have many other opinions other than what was already stated.
Suspicion level: Iffy-Iffy

Merlin: He changes his mind too much. This is about all that is suspicious with him. He seems to vote first and then change his mind a couple times after some people speak. Made an odd vote against Jae.
Suspicion level: Iffy-Iffy

Jae: I don't really know about him. Merlin made a vote against him. I personally do not find him very suspicious yet but that could be because he doesn't post much.
Suspicion level: Iffy-Iffy

 

[NacRuno]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Well, i have read all the posts as best as i can. I understand why you are not satisfied with my previous answer but i do not understand why you want more explanation from me to make a judgement. No matter what my true allegiance is, i am probably dead before or at night. I thought that leaaving that unanswered, my chance to see the next day time would be the highest. Apperantly i was wrong. So i will just admit my role so that at least you can use the little bit of information & opinions i have in coming days.

I am the 'goon' of the town, although some people accuse me of using my powers after hearing Naz's plan, i had no obligations to follow a plan when it is not accepted by the community.

The first night i have used my ability on Zhao Yue due to the AmanDestroyer thing drawing attention. Since he had died that night i just hope that i haven't blocked his ability to 'stay cautious' that night. And last night my ability was used on 'Liquid Evil'. Since before the night, the cops (which group i assume Liq is a part of) had 2 members, my chance of stoping one of the kills yesterday is 50% * possibility of Liq being a cop. In my first post i didn't go shouting about that because in my opinion, revealing a power role is one of the worst things a towny can do for the town.

Still i thought that Liq has given so many other clues about his possible identity that one less NK from last night is no clue to blame Liq compared to others. I am really amazed that although people were ready to disbelieve in Liq the last day, no one consideres his name today. The fact that things are evolving in such a way shows how my theory of Liq being a cop, that have used his ability on Lister to gain trust of the town, makes absolute sense. As i have stated previously, the actualy identity of Lister had no effect on such a plan. Lister admitting his guilt was just something that have enhanced Liq's plan imo.

I have already explained my distrust in Liq and most of them are still not answered. To summarize my doubts i am (re)asking only two questions.

1) How come Liq was so sure of himself that Lister would be mafia before he admitted that. He was so insisted and self confident that you have even proposed himself to be lynched if lister turns out to be someone else.

2) How come at the end of the day Liq never thought of the chance that he himself gets killed that night although he openly attacked me, a very likely bad guy as he claims?

Also to clear things:

Has anyone picked up that:
NacRuno
Nolecub
Thyiad
PureSummon

All voted for Liquid after Lister confessed to being from the rival mafia clan?

Hmmmmmmmmmm very curious.

A possible reason for that might be that people do not fully read the thread, just like you didn't actually read that i have given my vote aganist Liq before Lister admitted his guilt. And than i have not changed my answer since it did not matter and my suspicion on Liq was almost the same.

 

[Thyiad1]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Unvote NacRuno

I'll read tomorrow. But Nac are you saying that Liq falsified the evidence on Lister and you stopped him killing last night?

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Unvote: NacRuno

I'll see where this goes...

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

1) How come Liq was so sure of himself that Lister would be mafia before he admitted that. He was so insisted and self confident that you have even proposed himself to be lynched if lister turns out to be someone else.

Because Liq understands probability. Even when I'm in doubt of something, I'll still appear decidely confident to gather votes from the undecided masses to help my cause. If you don't appear to trust your own decisions, why would others?

2) How come at the end of the day Liq never thought of the chance that he himself gets killed that night although he openly attacked me, a very likely bad guy as he claims?

I named you a heavy suspect because of your posts BEFORE goltar said he saw you. After goltar's confirmation that you're a night owl coupled with your lack of excuse meant you were a good lynch candidate.

You locking up Zhao the first night based on the "Amandestroyer" tag is just too convenient for me. And I was locked up last night eh? With just 1 NK, your claim would have had me in the ground immediately had you said it right away. However, you waited until after Sint cleared things up AND when you've reached a pretty critical number of votes.

You should have brought this up immediately so it would stand on its own instead of looking like a last ditch effort to save yourself. Which I believe it is. You guys keep coming back to this "Liq's a crooked cop that falsifies evidence" theory, but seem to be forgetting that Lister admitted being mafia. No need to falsify evidence when someone claims mafia.

You are NOT the goon and I know it. You are Lister's partner.

 

[Sint Nikolaas]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sigh, I dislike you comming out, nac. I'd have rather had people would just listen and see you'd die anyway. No matter what your alignment is. Now you claimed and surprise surprise you claimed town, ofcourse that is a reason to unvote... Good thinking people, like you wouldn't have spotted that earlier.
Which ofcourse makes me even more suspicious of thy.

And liq, you're arguing one side of the case. Greed is risky, yes, but so is the vendetta. If they make the extra kill all we have to do is see who the ''first voters'' voted for. Pretty much the same chance as if they tried to turn one of us.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

NacRuno is just trying to lure the real Goon out of hiding. Do NOT be swayed, people!

I'll put up another wager that will make me 2 for 2. If NacRuno does NOT bleed rival mafia, lynch me tomorrow. The last of Lister's band is probably going to kill me tonight, but if I live to see tomorrow, I'll be the first one to vote myself if I was wrong. But I'm not.

Reread NacRuno's posts, people. He was in Lister's corner all of yesterday.

 

[maatiarna]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nacruno: He has some valid points but didn't bother explain himself too much. He seems to be the "target" right now. However, does everyone really want to risk the 50% odds? Lynching a pro-town power role would (IMO) be really bad. Even lynching a normal townie would take the mafia one step closer to a victory. I'm not saying that he isn't suspicious (because he definitely is), I'm saying that maybe this 2 sights = mafia is carrying out a bit too far. (Considering that Thyiad is also pretty suspicious)
Suspicion level: Pretty Suspicious

These are my thoughts on this matter exactly. There is to greater risk that NacRuno could have a Townie power role. To me it seems that some people are voting for NacRuno because of the second night sighting by Thyiad. Can this sighting by Thyiad actually be trusted by the way that she has been posting this game so far????


Here are my thoughts on Thyiad at the moment

@Merlin - TLDR

1st she warns that she would vote for anyone that made to may posts or that she would vote anyone that made the longest post. Then she attacks merlin by saying that his post was to long and she did not read it. Hmmmm Suspicious behaviour I think anyway.

I've read though this since yesterday and I've got a few ideas.

My joke vote for Naz is about to be changed.

Unvote: Nazdakka

The first day or two are pretty much coin flips but after the overwhelming amount of posts, I'm ready to make a serious vote.

For basically posting pages and pages of over-bearing, dull, unhelpful pieces of incomprehensible drivel.

You haven't possibly got a clue what is going on this early in the game, but I do think you're trying Amans trick of claiming role after role after role, keeping the town confused while you gut us. Not this time, mate.

Vote Liquid Evil

What was with this joke vote on Naz anyway Thyiad? But then you change your vote to Liq. It seems to me that you are trying to form a lynch train on 2 of the most helpful players in the game so far. But in saying this it does not prove that both Naz and Liq are townies though.

Nacruno was out again last night. I say unless he has a good reason ... we kill him.

Then Thyiad posts first thing in the morning that she saw NacRuno out last night claiming that she was drinking. Very convenient and unhelpful as Goltar already had stated that he was drinking the night before and saw NacRuno out and about.

@Liq I hope that you did not vote for NacRuno on the basis that Thyiad said that she too saw NacRuno out last night?

Looks like I'm dead but for the record, I vote fast because I have a weird schedule and it's possible I won't get to read the whole thread before night. I'd rather vote first and change it if necessary. Did the same in the Pal mafia.

And congrats again Liq - you got me lynched again as a townie. Last time I was the cop. I'm still suspicious of you but I'm not convinced by NacRuno's explanation.

Now she is complaining that she is dead and does not bother to defend herself in the post. Just stating instead that she keeps a weird schedule.

Sir Lister of Smeg said - As to Liquid's allegiations...., yes I am mafia.
Short enough?

If I read it right we're all mafia. He could be being subtle.

Ta Ray

I did totally miss Listers mafia admition in the wall of text.[/QUOTE]

Thyiad may of missed Lister's admission of guilt at first so voted for Liq but as you can see from above Ray did point out to her that Lister has admitted to being mafia and she responded by thanking Ray for pointing it out. Yet she still did not change her vote. Very anti town like me thinks.

Don't expect anything further from me. That post says it all: I'm a townie and that's it. Belive me or don't. But listen; when I'm proven right when lynched ... take a good long hard look at Liq.

And NacRuno was out last night.

Her posts do not offer good explanation to her actions in the past couple of days at all.

I still think NacRuno is acting very suspicious but I still need to hear more from him as to why he was active on night one as he has not given an explanation yet.

 

[maatiarna]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nac posted while I was writing

 

[Merlin The Wizzard]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

NacRuno

Still i thought that Liq has given so many other clues about his possible identity that one less NK from last night is no clue to blame Liq compared to others. I am really amazed that although people were ready to disbelieve in Liq the last day, no one consideres his name today. The fact that things are evolving in such a way shows how my theory of Liq being a cop, that have used his ability on Lister to gain trust of the town, makes absolute sense. As i have stated previously, the actualy identity of Lister had no effect on such a plan. Lister admitting his guilt was just something that have enhanced Liq's plan imo.

Uhuh. Doesn't fly.
To simplify, you say Liq as an undercover cop falsifies evidence on Lister, making him look like a mafia, then claims to have seen him during the night... So that he can gain the trust of the town.
Now, the situation at the start of day 1. 21 people alive. 2 undercover cops, 3 mafia, 16 townies. If liq is an undercover cop, that means he had 19 people to choose from to falsify evidence on. He picks Lister(at random) and then proceeds to say he spotted him in the night.
Trusting that if Lister is lynched, he will show up mafia, and thus the town will trust him.
The odds of Lister actually BEING mafia are 3/19. Are you with me so far? a little bit less then 1 in 6.

That makes his behavior very risky. Why? Well, with the chances only being 1 in 6 that Lister was mafia, they were 5 in 6 he wasn't. In that far more likely scenario, what would the mafia have done when Lister, who they know not to be mafia, is accused by Liquid_Evil as mafia, and when lynched turns out to be one? They would immediately know that a) Liquid was an undercover cop and b) that the cops had used their ability to frame Lister. With the only goal of gaining the towns trust.

Now it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if a person turns out to be
a)from a rival group (undercover cops),
b)uses an ability to come over as a townie and gain trust to
c)be able to 'steer' the town towards lynch behavior helpful to the cops,

It would be wise indeed for the mafia to kill him as soon as possible. And liq has not been NK'd, so there goes that theory...

 

[water_moon]

DM question

Which gives me another reason for questioning LE. Why would you want to ''sacrifice'' yourself by voting everyone and maybe get killed by vendetta? If you get killed that way and you voted for everyone it won't help us further at all. A better way would be to grab the list and have everyone vote for the person under your name and unvote at the start of the day.

Just how does vendetta work exactly? In the rule set it's a free kill on some one who opened voting on a member of the rivals. But payback would imply that the voted upon had been lynched.

Does it change each day? (ie. they use vendetta on night three baised on who opened voting on day 2) or is it the very first person to ever vote on that member?

And most importantly for seeing if sint's idea could hold water, will we know if a vendetta kill takes place and who it's against?

still reading up, will post again