OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Here’s some stuff for my little lamb to wake up too. I'd hate for him to start the day off on the wrong foot.

Wait, let me put this in more words.
I'm dropping down on your trust ladder because you didn't read well?

Because you are an admitted liar.

Wildly selfish? Didn't I just give the town one less NK?

For all we know, the real doc did that.

I try to stay alive where I normally die soon?

And THAT is what makes you wildly selfish.

That is bs dude. You're only thinking in one way: If he's doc then he's gone, too bad, if he's not he must be mafia, so let's trade our doc for a mafia. That's crap. You don't think that if I was mafia and claimed doc that the OTHER FACTION would kill me?

Not immediately, no. The doc is a crap random role that usually relies on a fair amount of luck. If I were mafia, I would have probably continued hunting for the snoop and rival factions before worrying about the doc much longer.

There's no need for the doc to claim at all. Think about the end game... how about giving the doc a free night last night and stay alive with more people... sure, I wasn't thinking at all.

Oh you were thinking alright, but it was of self-preservation.

100% certain to yourself. You could've been lucky. You could've been in lister's faction. You could've been who you say you are. One in 3 for me.

The odds aren’t as clear-cut as that when you factor in the amount of townies as compared to the amount of mafia. If ratting out a teammate the first day or getting a lucky choice makes are given equal weight to how I’ve explained thing (that I was a drunk townie), then I’d like to gamble with you. I’ll wager a million bucks that a meteor won’t strike the planet in the next two seconds. One in a trillion odds you say? No, according to your logic it’s a 50-50 chance. It either WILL or it WON’T, right?

 

[Jaedhann]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Why do i get the feeling we are all played by L_E? Well, if i were mafia i would have played it just the same way. Be really active and try to get the townspeople behind you, knowing that the one who will be lynched is revealed with just the role you want him to have.

That also leaves Thy in the same boat. First following L_E in voting for Lister, then conviniently switching vote to L_E so it she could claim she voted against him if things go awry, then today voting for someone at point blank, without giving him time to talk.

therefore: vote: Thyiad

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I hate to pull a TLDR, but I don't have the time right now to wade through all this. I'll make a vote tomorrow (or really really late tonight) and hopefully have some decent to contribute to the conversation.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Why do i get the feeling we are all played by L_E? Well, if i were mafia i would have played it just the same way. Be really active and try to get the townspeople behind you, knowing that the one who will be lynched is revealed with just the role you want him to have.

The problem is, that's how Liq has played every game, as a townie and as a mafia.


I'm tempted to vote for NacRuno, based on the fact that he's been active for both nights. He's definitely not a townie, and hasn't convinced me that he's pro-town. I need to go back and re-read a few times before I make a vote though.

 

[goltar25]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Liquid, Sint never claimed to be doctor. He hinted at it, but never outright claimed it. If you carefully read what he said, it could be taken one of two ways. One is how it appears to be. If he hints at doctor, he becomes a higher priority target, especially since we still don't know NacRuno's role (more on that later). That in and of itself protects me. Second, if he is one of the enemy, then he can try to sway them to not NK me in hopes that I've got a town role's name and would reveal it today. Either is a valid possibility, and as I see it, he never lied.

As for NacRuno's role. Assuming Thyiad's not lying (which I've got a nagging doubt in the back of my mind about), then he's obviously not a drunk. Based on his defense, I'm more inclined to switch back and think he's one of us. He's too determined to hide his role, rather than appear pro-town. I'm desperately hoping that he's the snoop, so that if he is nightkilled, he's (in my opinion) the least powerful of the town roles. I'm not seeing enough reason to vote for him just yet. I'm slightly regretting having revealed his name, but since Thyiad is claiming having seen him last night, I'm glad I revealed him yesterday rather than today.

And for SiTro's death, what you said makes sense. But it's also possible that the way muzzz described SiTro's replacing Azador hinted too much at him having a role more than just a mere townie, and he was killed for that reason. Either could be correct, both could be correct. Only the group that chose to kill him will know for certain why they chose to kill him. I say things that way because it is possible that the undercover cops decided to kill him and use the bad cop ability to make it look like they were at lesser numbers.

 

[water_moon]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Some of you have questioned my presence in the game and attempts to control the flow and you’re absolutely right. I’m the only one whose role is 100% certain and I dislike counting on others when I can think for myself.

My trust shouldn’t have even wavered to be honest.

yup, in that no one can trust any other. You said so yourself.

I too would have assumed Sitro's NK was b/c he had a role, hence the replacement. YOU were the one to assume differntly, and you know what they say, it takes one to know one.

I'm still rather more suspicious of several others, including Magicboy who said several times yesterday he'd wait and see what folks said before voting, and then never came back to vote, even when a mafia revealed themself...

@ liquid, I would like to note that Sint never SAID "I am dr" he said "I'll save you" bigger difference than spelling mr. nit-pick-semantics. Also, he didn't dive for powerrols per se so much as attempt to limit nightkills, and save himself I might add. (assuming it's a true story.)

@ sint, Thyiad didn't open the vote, thereby saving herself from a possible vendetta. Smart play and I won't condem some one for playing smartly, as you had (we could all use a little more smart play...)

Selfish? why selfish is how we all got hera in the first place, how doya think yah get ahead in this world? I wouldn't have my millions if not for a little self interst, and self preservation is the only way to keep it to enjoy.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Yeah, rereading it's clear he didn't explicitly state it, but the hint was enough for me at the time. I guess that's why I'm so defensive with him now. I was taken in by it and felt betrayed at the "lie" since I had trusted him so much as pro-town. However, even now he's probably still pro-town in my mind.

I still think I'm on to something in regards to SiTro's death, but I'll let some others post for a while I reread and reflect. After all, if the waters are raging, then the splashes of actual mafia are harder to detect.

 

[Nolecub]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Hmmm....Did anyone else beside Jaed see Thy out and about, especially on night one? She may be claiming a drinking role to have us vote for Nac.

Unvote: Nac

for the time being. I want to give this a little more thought.

 

[maatiarna]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Does anyone other than me find it a little bit odd that Thyiad has come out very quickly and stated that she saw NacRuno out and about last night? Yesterday she posted quick usually one sentence statements that attacked people like Naz and Merlin and anyone else that was posting long and helpful posts. Come to think of it Thyiad's posts yesterday, were all attacking and had no helpful information that the town could use to help find members of the rival mafia group and the cops that wish to kill off the town.

After her unhelpful posts yesterday she comes out and says that she was a drinking townie last night and that she saw NacRuno the very same person that Goltar saw the night before when he was drinking, to me that seems like to big a coincidence and a little to convenient for my liking. Her actions so far also seem very mafia like.

Vote Thyiad

I am not saying that NacRuno does not have an anti town role as Goltar saw him active last night. I am just thinking that he may have one of the townie power roles as a drinking townie can not only see anti townies out at night but also townies with power roles. So I am just deciding to wait for NacRuno to post more before vote for him. But he is high up on my suspicions list along with Nolecub, Puresummon, Thyiad and Jaedhann.

 

[maatiarna]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Has anyone picked up that:
NacRuno
Nolecub
Thyiad
PureSummon

All voted for Liquid after Lister confessed to being from the rival mafia clan?

Hmmmmmmmmmm very curious.

 

[Jason Maher]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I most certainly did notice that. The fact is, given that Lister has confessed and shown as mafia, there are 4 possibilities:

1) He is as he said he was and was revealed to be - one less scumbag rival for us all to worry about. And Liq was telling the truth, he is a simple drunk. This is the most likely scenario.

2) The Undercover pigs falsified some evidence, and sent out Liq as attack dog to make the charge stick. The problem is, Lister would only admit the charge if he was in cahoots (i.e. another undercover pig, i.e. they sacrificed one of their own to put Liq in charge of the town). And if this is true, then we have 3 dead pigs (Lister, Aman, SiTro), and 1 living, quite a feat given there is only 3 of them, and they don't have the greed ability. So apart from being impossible given what we know, it would also be incredibly risky and in my mind stupid. I think we can forget Liq being a pig. Unless:

3) The rival mob used their greed ability and targeted Liq, who being an undercover cop, walked away with a rival gang members name - Lister. This would allow Liq to very easily pass himself as a drunk.

4) Liq is rival mafia, and they sacrificed one of their own (possibly after using the greed ability on poor unsuspecting Lister) in order for Liq to gain the town's trust.

5) Highly unlikely, but maybe Liq is undercover, picked Lister as a random target (without any evidence falsification), and got very lucky.

Leaving out the slight possibility Lister was turned by greed and ignoring the known roles (1 rival mafia, 2 undercover pigs, 1 family member) Liq has a 1/19 chance of being an undercover pig (possibility 3 or 5), a 2/19 chance of being a rival wannabe usurper (possibility 4), and a 16/19 chance of being a family member.

Anyway, for my vote, I'm going with the person who either didn't notice Lister's confession, or pretended not to notice, and wants to keep betting against the odds re Liq's guilt:

vote Thyiad

 

[Jason Maher]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Make that 5 possibilities, I thought of another one after I wrote that sentence.

 

[Thyiad1]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Looks like I'm dead but for the record, I vote fast because I have a weird schedule and it's possible I won't get to read the whole thread before night. I'd rather vote first and change it if necessary. Did the same in the Pal mafia.

And congrats again Liq - you got me lynched again as a townie. Last time I was the cop. I'm still suspicious of you but I'm not convinced by NacRuno's explanation.

I did totally miss Listers mafia admition in the wall of text.

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@maatiarna: I like the points you brought up in post #249, and Thy's behaviour has seemed suspucious to me from the start. ATM, I'll

Vote: Thyiad

Unless she can defend herself, she's got my vote for now.

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Should have refreshed, Thy posted as I was reading/typing. Still didn't change my mind though.

 

[Thyiad1]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Don't expect anything further from me. That post says it all: I'm a townie and that's it. Belive me or don't. But listen; when I'm proven right when lynched ... take a good long hard look at Liq.

And NacRuno was out last night.

 

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Bullet points:

- Occam's razor is a good thing to bear in mind.
- Sint's explanation seems reasonable. Obviously there are other explanations, but I think they are less likely than the simpler one.
- I don't trust Liquid.
- I don't like Thyiad's TLDR act either.
- Nacruno needs to explain what's up. Badly.
- The Doc is not a crap random role. I certainly came up with a good use for it.

I might not get home in time to vote again, so for now...

Vote NacRuno

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Looks like I'm dead

There's a lot of day left.

And congrats again Liq - you got me lynched again as a townie.

My vote is on NacRuno currently. You are getting yourself lynched through your own actions.

Last time I was the cop.

An appeal to the last game? If roles didn't change between games, that might mean something.

Love me or hate me. Trust me or don't. I've helped to kill a mafioso on the first day (something rarely done), have thought up some theories, detailed a suspect list, and inspired some posting. That's more than I can say for most.

- Occam's razor is a good thing to bear in mind.
...
- I don't trust Liquid.

Your third bullet contradicts your first.

The Doc is not a crap random role. I certainly came up with a good use for it.

And the town sure put it to good use, didn't they? Theory and action are two different animals.

 

[muzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

PS: I want to make a correction in muzzz's table at the end of the previous day. Although my first vote was for Lister, i have changed my vote to Liquid towards the end of the day.

Heh, look again :english:

That second vote is there as well. Since more people have asked about it: the voting tables I post contain all votes made during that day, including the ones that were later changed.

Muzz, if the doc makes a save, will we know it? If the cops choose to falsify evidence at night, will it affect the person they kill or can it affect the person the other mafia kills too?

You'll know if the doc makes a save. The bad cops can falsify evidence for anyone, not just their kill for that night. No matter when or how the targeted person dies, he'll reveal his false allegiance.

 

[Merlin The Wizzard]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Thyiad's posting behavior is certainly not helpful, but after two days of posts like this, I doubt anyone will give credence this round to what she has to say. Besides, just now she claimed townie drink role.
Her behavior is too odd to associate her with a rival gang. I mean, let's face it, what has she accomplished with her posts? Her first vote was on Naz(a later self admitted joke vote), several followed, but it petered out. Near the very end of day one she suddenly goes to distrusting liq, whereas he has exposed a self confessed and later confirmed mafia member.
And so far, this day, she claims a townie role, claims she has seen nacruno and votes for him immediately after the day started. Right now, many people find her posting weird and unhelpful.

Even if she is mafia, she is not very likely to be able to get much misleading done. I sincerely doubt it, but I am certainly not scraping her of the dangerous suspect list... merley dropping her a few places.

Personally, to be honest, I found NacRuno's 'explanation' entirely unsatisfactory. He promised one the previous day, on the condition he lived through the night. Well, it seems he did, but so far, his post has done nothing but spout drivel over liq's posting and voting behavior... Again. The points may or may not be valid, but the one thing they don't do, is form an explanation.

With that in mind, I am more in more in doubt about Nac's allegiance. I may change my vote if he DOES come up with an explanation today, but in case he doesn't...

Vote: NacRuno