OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz-I originally liked your plan, but the part where the Mafia can just simply wait it out until all the townies have used their drinking ability is disconcerting. Not to mention, we don't know how many townies actually chose drinking as their ability. I believe there was a choice between drinking and staying cautious all night. So it seems at most this plan would only help for a couple of rounds, if at all. However, I don't think you meant any mischief by the idea. Maybe just did not think it all the way through.

I am not ready to vote yet, but at this point I am tempted to give Liquid one shot, just to see where it goes. Liquid played some of us like a fiddle last game, but that does not necessarily transfer to this game. Before I vote, though, I want to hear what Smeg has to say. I have not seen him post yet.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz's idea seems too sketchy to me and the liklihood that we will kill other night roles is too high. Frankly, for the town to win, our best shot is keeping the cop alive until the last possible moment (see round 4 or maybe five when Thyiad had her big reveal or possibly the next round when it was Jason and someone else) Killing mafia and undercover agents is the goal, but killing the cop is now a 1 in 8 chance (now that Aman is dead).

The one thing no one seems to be talking about is who would kill Zhao? or even for that matter, who would kill Aman.

There are two night kills a night. Since Aman was an undercover agent, it is clear that the mafia killed Aman which means that the undercover agents killed Zhao. So the real question then, is who would want to kill Aman?

After Liquid's confession (which everybody seems to ignore) my gut tells me to vote Lister.

However, I have to ask...who else would kill Aman

After the last round, the other likely candidates would be Naz, Serdash, Sint, and Sitro

For right now, I am going to hold off my vote.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz: had you taken into account how many family members may have chosen the "remain cautious" option? If a significant number have chosen that, then your drinking plan may not have enough participants to work.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

lurkin: the number of people who would like to knock off aman is as numerous as the sands on the seashore...
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

The first day seems to have started as confusing as any other will be. Lots have been put on table but as a new participant to the mafia games there are lots of gaps people skips questioning imo.

The suspicion is mostly over Lister and Naz for now. But Merlin is another wierd acting fellow out there in my opinion. Not that only his vote differs from the crowd (only vote @ Thyriad) he is also too defensive and changes his decision without giving sufficiant reasoning. On the other hand isn't he like that in every thread.

Liquid surely has a clue and has revealed it. But it doesn't make sense to me to finger someone so eagerly in the first post. Other than the power roles we should not forget about the 'stay cautios' & 'drink' options, therefore although we are sure that 6 (badguys) + 3 (power roles) people have most likely used their power, we are not sure how many of the remaining people have not used their roles.

Also the one thing i agree most with Liq's statements is that 'people are sheep'. Therefore it seems suspicious to me that just after the decleration of this Liq not only reveals himself as a regular drinker townie but also states that "Naz is a townie after his own heart". There is lots of flocking going on there. But again he at least gives solid reasoning for his actions.

As a last word i am still confused too much to vote but i will need to hear Lister's word before giving my final decision.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@ Nacruno- Everything I post is posted for a reason.

I chose to come clean immediately as I would be more likely to be believed than if I had waited until my life was on the line to roleclaim.

I also agreed openly with Naz, not because I believe his plan is fool-proof, but to see the opposition to it. I'd say 75% of the people against it are either sloppy pro-town roles not wanting to sit idle (at the risk of the town failing and them being branded as worst cop/snoop/goon ever) or mafia not wanting this plan to carry forward at the risk of messing up their plans.

Out of the several anti-Naz plan posts, only Nolecub really stood out as an oddity. He did five things:
1) He starts off his post with the following, "Your plan sets the town up to fail, pure and simple" in an attempt to discredit Naz and his plan.
He claims this right out of the gate, but then does NOT back it up with anything. Why does this set up the town to fail so pure and simple? Not even an attempt at an explanation = no real thought into the matter. At best a careless townie.
2) Flat out calls Naz mafia.
I get no mafia read on Naz, but I'll give it a couple more days before I put him in my 99% pile. You on the other hand, can go to my 5% pile.
3) Flat out calls me mafia (of the same group as Naz).
That's just false since I know I am not. And also counterintuitive to usual mafia play.
4) Attempts to discredit my claim by questioning my motivations via "Liq - your declaration of seeing someone who has yet to provide any input to the game last night is too suspicious."
I will not wait around to get the ball rolling on someone who I believe is mafia. He usually makes very limited appearances so waiting for a NCP like that to come forward is a poor choice if I want to convince people of his guilt.
5) Sneaks in a vote against Naz. I say 'sneaks' because he says the following, "But since Naz has more votes as of now, that is where I must cast"
This is really interesting to me. His wording seems to betray his purpose. He is only casting a vote on Naz (someone he wholeheartedly believes is mafia) because he currently has the most votes. So he's bandwagoning? Which is it? Do you want him dead because you think he's mafia or do you want him dead because the majority seems to want him dead? This looks to me like a mafioso getting flustered at the idea of a gameplay exploit and jumping into the herd to nip the problem in the bud. Sloppy.

My vote remains with Lister because that's the best odds for a 1st day mafia kill. My vote will go to you tomorrow because that's where the best odds will lie if you cannot explain your actions to my satisfaction.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I'm sorry to hear about the demise of Zhao and Aman. May they rest in peace.

As to suspicions, as of yet I haven't many. I must say I find the notion that someone drunk spotted me a bit odd. If Liquid would truly have seen someone while drunk he'd at least seen that person double. Mentioning that drinking only later as an afterthought, after first blaming these two deaths on me without any explanation comes over quite suspiciously to say the least. Nevertheless, it doesn't seem enough to point a finger at Liquid yet. As for now I'll see what other suspicions arise. Naz's plan is interesting, but as some people pointed out still with some holes.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I very well see your reasoning, however as i have said i do not fing it convincing enough to target Lister without any debate on it. There are a bunch of possibilities to be active if nothing else.

And also about Naz's plan, Jason's comment must not be taken lightly. We are left with 20 people after the first night, 5 of them being mafia members and 3 of them having power roles. Also you (Liq) and goltar has revealed that you have used your regular towny abilities. It is also very possible that some of us that have used their abilities last night have not revealed themselves yet.

If we are to develop on Naz's plan we must use our sources wisely and consider how much more information we can risk to reveal to the mafia.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Goltar... you again :rolleyes:. I had thought of the 'do nothing' ploy for the Bad Guys. It does rely on both groups of Bad Guys making co-ordinated action, which isn't certain. Let's think about the results of that.

The Doc covers the drinker, but no NK attempts are made. The drinker gets given the name of the Doc, as the Doc was the only one out that night. They see the lack of NKs, and realise they must have caught the Doc. They therefore does NOT reveal the name they've got.

Do you see what's happened there? Your scenario results in us shutting down both groups of Bad Guys' NK ability! That's a huge victory for the Good Guys. We get the equivalent of TWO Doc saves per night. Yes, eventually, we'll run out of potential drinkers... but we've bought outselves a huge amount of time, and saved a lot of Good Guy lives.

Finally, the greed ability. IF the rival Mafia took it and IF they haven't already used it, they can convert the drinker the either the night he drinks or the night after. If they do it the night after they probably get the name of the Doc. So, we've burned their one-shot power, avoided two NKs, and once the Doc dies, we can take a good guess at where the name came from. If they do it the night he drinks, they probably get the name of one of their own number, and get to NK someone. Neither scenario is disasterous.

Oh, and using the drinking ability in a haphazard manner is a BAD idea. We'll just keep on catching each other. I don't see any reaon not to co-ordinate its use, even if we don't go the whole hog with my scheme.

Finally... Lister. Seems like the best target out there, no defense beyond a straight denial, and he'll probably go AWOL soon anyway. Let's find out what he was up to.

Vote Sir Lister of Smeg
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Oh yes, forgot to say. If they use Greed on the night after, we also get the name of one of their number from whoever drinks on the night they use Greed.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

An explanation from Lister at last, and it seems like he is denying any source of activity last night. This means either Liq or Lister is providing false evidence.

Either Lister's activity was due to him being a mafia, not due to any other possible activity confusing me. Or Liq is trying to get of the hook of lynching/murdering by stating that he is a towny that have used his ablitity.

To speak my mind late appereance of Lister has decreased his credibility greatly on this matter.

I still more opinions to cast my vote though...
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@water moon

Option #2: Start drinking.
Many people believe that alcohol is capable of solving their problems. While a questionable belief in general, you never know what you'll find if you're unsure which way is home. Remembering what happened can be tricky, though
[highlight]You'll receive the name of a random player who was active on the night you were drunk. Active players include all family members using an ability, as well as all members of an opposing faction that uses an ability.[/highlight]
Click to expand...

It's the activity during the night that limits the field here. If no townie exercises his ability (apart from the drinker), it means they cannot be spotted by the drinker...

@goltar - When the opposing factions do nothing, no nightkills will be made. Then, the townie will have spotted the doc, and know that the very next day. Obviously, he will not reveal this name at that time...
So basically, it means a townie knows one of the powerroles of his own faction (always a good thing), whereas neither of the bad guy groups got to do anything that night(that's also a good thing).
Furthermore, if these factions are that easily cowed, the drinkers could easily bluff as well... Claiming they will go out that night and drink, but then not use their ability. This means they can save it for a later time, when the bad guy factions think that no townie can possibly drink again.

As far as I can tell, this game is about momentum. Each night, the bad guys can disable a townie, possibly a powerrole. In this particular scenario, they could eliminate up to two townies each night. The townies can only try and reason out who is mafia and lynch them before the night falls, in a race to see who finally wins. So if the bad guys decide to stay at home, they loose their momentum. That can't be a good thing for the mob.

Furthermore, this time around, the townies actually get the option to find a clue on their own. That is an ability to be treasured. So far, I have only heard one person(Nazdakka) try and put this ability to constructive use.
Those who are against it, do not offer a better solution at all.
Without a plan, this ability will simply go to ineffectual waste. With random drinking, chances are much higher of spotting fellow townies. It's also much harder to discredit bluffs in this manner as well. With one alledged townie a night using this option, it's not too hard to figure out whether he is bluffing/falsely claiming a townie role or not. If there is no system at all, it becomes nigh impossible to prove/disprove such claims.

Mind you, with the cop role toned down, there is no reason at all for the rival factions to do anything at night. They can never be spotted that way, because there is no townie powerrole that can actively sniff out another person's role. As long as they don't use their special ability, they are perfectly safe, and in no way distinguishable from any regular townie.

@NacRuno - Well, I find it odd that you call me defensive. I do freely admit to changing my vote quickly, however. Allow me to present my reasoning.
First vote for Sir Lister was bandwagoning, I'll be honest about it.
Then Nazdakka comes up with a plan. While I am at first not enthusiastic about it, I don't discredit it immediately.
However, along comes thyiad, and she casts her vote on the one person coming up with a plan without even bothering of trying to come up with some way to show the logical fallacies. Instead, she calls it sneaky and says he deserves to be lynched for that. And the lot of you so far have put no question marks at this behaviour? I find it suspicious indeed, hence my vote.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz your plan is intriguing to say the least. But I do see some problems that can be a problem for the town.

1) As you have stated Naz as well as another player that the mafia factions do not make any NK while townies are drinking and the doc saves that townie (Granted 2 townies are spared). As stated by someone I am sure all the drinking townie sees out at night is the doc.

Which leads into problem 2) What if the townie that has been drinking that night does not realise that who they have seen active at night is the doc and they tell the rest of the town and the doc subsequently gets lynched. The town will then have no one to make a save them from NKs by the mafia.

3) The doc may have no choice if (s)he is revealed as being active at night to reveal themselves as the doc.

4) If problem 3 occurs then the mafia will then know who the doc is and can target him/her. The doc may be able to save themselves on the first NK attempt but will not be able to save themselves on the second attempt at their life (if (s)he are targeted on consecutive nights).

Now that being said after reading the thread I do not see anyone at the moment that stands out as being suspicious at this point. Therefore I have to reread the thread again before I cast a vote.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

liq said:
I also agreed openly with Naz, not because I believe his plan is fool-proof, but to see the opposition to it.
Click to expand...
Hehe, funny stuff, I attacked the plan to do exactly the same :grin: (well, other way around then..)
This led me to believe merlin to be mafia, can't put my finger on it exactly, but something in his posts says he's anti town. Just a feeling. I can't explain well and it doesn't really matter at this point (it can be saved untill tomorrow) because we have an open liar amongst us.
Liq says lister was active, lister says liq is wrong. Easy doing, just like last round, we should support the side which claimed town. Sorry lister, it's just the way it is. Just like killing zhao was just the way it is last round, the better play. I can repeat all said back then, but I won't. Everyone should vote lister by now.

unvote naz, vote lister

----
This:
lukin said:
The one thing no one seems to be talking about is who would kill Zhao? or even for that matter, who would kill Aman.

There are two night kills a night. Since Aman was an undercover agent, it is clear that the mafia killed Aman which means that the undercover agents killed Zhao. So the real question then, is who would want to kill Aman?

After Liquid's confession (which everybody seems to ignore) my gut tells me to vote Lister.

However, I have to ask...who else would kill Aman

After the last round, the other likely candidates would be Naz, Serdash, Sint, and Sitro

For right now, I am going to hold off my vote.
Click to expand...
Is incredible mafia behaivior. Sorry, you're caught.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Liq - I thought I explained myself quite well and asked for an explaination from you to change my mind. Instead, you went pure offense on me, never giving good reasons as to why I am wrong.

1. You say that I give no reasoning behind my thoughts on Naz being mafia. Just read the umpteen posts ahead of mine that throw suspicion his way.

2. How is me calling out Naz any different than you calling out Smeg?
At least Naz has posted something to call him out on. You have branded Smeg, who still has yet to enter the fray.

3. Just like I called you out on Day 1 of the last game in Comm forum. I do recall that I was right about that also.

4. Maybe- but you voted first and gave reasons later.

5. How exactly is placing my vote on the first line of my post sneaking? Again, you are who I want to know which side of the fence you are on. The only way to know this, is to have you lynched. Again - my first post of the new day will be 2 words: Vote: Liq

I am willing to sacrifice myself for the good of the Don's familia....are you?
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@maatiarna : It should be obvious to the drinkee he spotted the doctor if no Nightkills were made. He doesn't have to reveal the name, after all... All the other participants will also realize that he must have spotted a town role, and if Naz's plan is followed, probably the doc if no NK was claimed.

NAz already stated that loosing the doc was a risk with this plan. Well, there is no fool proof plan IMHO. At least with this plan we can bring structure to the townie roles, and use their special ability in the best manner possible.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Merlin The Wizzard said:
@maatiarna : It should be obvious to the drinkee he spotted the doctor if no Nightkills were made.
Click to expand...

How about the doc making a failed safe attempt. He still would be active that night, and someone will get killed.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

How is this mafia-like? Because I pointed out something that no one else seems to be talking about? Or is it that you are worried because someone named you? For right now, I am more interested in Liq's confession and who killed Aman than I am in trying to come up with some over-complicated system to discover mafia members which seemingly has too many holes in it and has the potential to do more harm than good.

To me, blindly reading a post and then making a silly comment like yours is more mafia-like than anything I have seen so far.

Sint Nikolaas said:
This:

Is incredible mafia behaivior. Sorry, you're caught.
Click to expand...


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@ jaedhann - You refer to a case in which both groups are active. If the doc can only prevent one attempt (this should be clarified by Muzzz, I'd say), two townies will have to drink. In which case, provided that Aman was indeed an undercover cop (seems likely, especially considering that picking and exercising their option leaves the undercover agents without their special ability), there is a 1 in 7 chance of a townie spotting the doc, a 1 in 7 chance of spotting the other drinking townie, and a 5 in 7 chance of catching a bad guy. Excellent odds in my opinion.
 
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