OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

[Magicboy]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

game with the townie abilities, and here's what I came up with:

Each day, a vanilla townie steps forward. That person will stay up drinking, and everyone else stays home. That townie, if they survive, will give us the name of someone who was active that night. Given that we know that only the Bad Guys and the drinker were active, we can be pretty sure that the name is one of the Bad Guys, and so the following day we lynch that person.

Basically you are saying to have the doctor protect the person that steps forward each night.

However, if the mafia know which person the doctor will be protecting, they can choose someone else to kill. This will allow the mafia to get in a NK every single night as long as they choose whoever isn't drinking that night.

The plan sounds good, but it might give the mafia a little too much information...

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Won't there be false role claims like no tomorrow? What's to stop a bad guy from coming forward and claiming to be a townie? The townies have no way of verifying the claims when they're made. Seems like a flawed plan to me...

Total bandwagon vote that will most likely change when given a decent reason:
Vote: Sir Lister of Smeg

 

[Nolecub]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

That sounds good at first, but that would take away one powerful role for the town....the goon. Along with the doc, we would be able to stave off two kills per night.

Plus, that would give the evil mafia one less townie to target at night. In order for them to get the upper hand, they have to eliminate the town power roles.

Also, the undercover agents have already lost one of their rank (allegedly) which means they can now only stop, at most, 2 lynches for the game. I wonder if they falsified any evidence on night one to make us believe that one of their own were killed?

 

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Magicboy: True, but I'd guesstimate that the Doc is worth maybe 1-2 saves/game. Unless the Cop (who isn't in this game) has come forward and there's an obvious save, the Doc bascially has to guess, and will usually miss. I'd be willing to commit the Doc to a known target if we can find 1 Mafia/night.

friedbananazzzz: If a Bad Guy claims to be townie and volunteers for drinking duty they'll have to guess at a name. If they get a member of the opposing team... yay for us, although we'll have to catch the bad guy later. If they get a townie who wasn't active, which is far more likely... we spot the liar and nail them.

Nolecub: Swings and roundabouts. If everyone else can be relied upon to stay home at night, the Snoop isn't far off a cop. The Goon is also a kind of a cop - if the Bad Guys miss an NK we can be pretty sure that the Goon's target was a Bad Guy, but the Goon needs a lot to go right for that to happen.

My current opinion is that the drinking trick is more powerful than those two abilities, but you're welcome to disagree. A near-certainty of 1 Bad Guy name per night is VERY good going for the town.

Finally: Why the Lister bandwagon? I don't see any reason to single him out. Enlighten me, Liquid.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz, I like the way you milk the system. You're a townie after my own heart. However, I think it flawed for the reasons stated above. The randomness of the doc is essential to keeping the mafia on their toes and we just can't afford to bank on a pre-ordered save list.

I've actually done a fair amount of thinking and come up with a plan of my own. I call it "Operation: Kill Smeg Immediately." We can formulate another as soon as this one is successful.

Seriously though, did anyone clue him in that the days were only 48 hours and not 168 like some of the previous games? I'd hate for him to miss this brief window to defend himself.

 

[Jaedhann]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I think because he let the last maffia game drag on for to long. I'll think i might bandwagon him just for that. And the fact that i have absolutely no clue at all, which is very odd this early in the game.

*vote: Sir Lister of Smeg

 

[Merlin The Wizzard]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

[highlight]The factions[/highlight]
While the roles have been reversed, in a sense, the gist of it remains as usual. Most of you will be occupied with lynching your fellow players during the day, while two groups will have the honor to fight Don Diablo for control of his town at night. Both opposing factions are allowed to exchange PM's or emails during the night, and can remove one player from the game each night.

To make things a little less static, each faction comes with a choice made during the first night. Based on this choice, they will be given a special one-time ability. [highlight]The two opposing factions will get one shot per faction, while the regular family members each get a separate choice (and use) of ability. [/highlight] The three power roles on the families' side are exempt from this, and only get the abilities associated with their role. The possibilities will be announced upfront, but the choices will not be made public.

Negative. The opposing factions can each exercise their ability only once per faction. Stands to reason, because their abilities are quite powerful, really. Plus, they can confer with each other when to use it...

As far as Nazdakka's plan goes, it has good and bad things going for it...
Alas, I fear mostly bad things.

The most important one though: How to chose a towny to exercise this option? At this point, anyone could step forward and claim to be a townie, and use this option. How can this be checked reliably? Here comes a worst case scenario : Person A claims to be a townie. Uses the ability, and comes up with the name of person B. When B is lynched, it turns out he was indeed someone from the rival mafia. But The drinkee's real identity was an undercover cop. By using their option, they are able to use the bad cops ability, so it appears person B, a true townie, was actually a role from another group. Lots of bad things happening then...

But there are other problems. IT disables the other town power roles for one, and it also endangers the doc. Another problem is the option greed... The rival mafia can in this manner easily find a 'true' townie, and use this ability to turn him... (oh btw, I use him to refer to persons, but she's are included as well of course...)

 

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

The most important one though: How to chose a towny to exercise this option? At this point, anyone could step forward and claim to be a townie, and use this option. How can this be checked reliably? Here comes a worst case scenario : Person A claims to be a townie. Uses the ability, and comes up with the name of person B. When B is lynched, it turns out he was indeed someone from the rival mafia. But The drinkee's real identity was an undercover cop. By using their option, they are able to use the bad cops ability, so it appears person B, a true townie, was actually a role from another group. Lots of bad things happening then...

So we wind up with someone who looks like a townie, but isn't. Certainly annoying, but also certainly not catatrophic, and it costs the Cops their one-shot special ability. The nice thing that stops your scenario from being that dangerous is that we have good odds of finding the imposter through more drinking.

But there are other problems. IT disables the other town power roles for one, and it also endangers the doc.

The townie roles work in an odd way this game anyway. The fewer roles that are being used, the less risky it is to use those rolls. Yes, my scheme means that the other townie power roles won't do anything... but in return we get a high chance of finding 1 Bad Guy per night. Yes, if we're unlucky we'll take out the doc... but we'll likely find one Bad Guy per night!.

Another problem is the option greed... The rival mafia can in this manner easily find a 'true' townie, and use this ability to turn him... (oh btw, I use him to refer to persons, but she's are included as well of course...)

True. We'll be making greed more powerful. However, anyone who annouces they've been drinking is already vulnerable to greed. I don't think we can let the threat of that ability shut down the townie special abilities.

Put it this way. Tonight I will be drinking. I prefer to drink alone, except that I might overindulge and require some medical attention later on. If the bottom of the bottle gives me any insight into what's going on, you'll know about it in the morning.

 

[Sint Nikolaas]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

No, Naz, seeing how the anti-town factions are 3 large each and we have 3 town powerroles it will actually give you a 6 out or 9 chance of identifying a bad guys. Not bad, but also not great. One in 3 will give you a town role.

Basically you are saying to have the doctor protect the person that steps forward each night.

However, if the mafia know which person the doctor will be protecting, they can choose someone else to kill. This will allow the mafia to get in a NK every single night as long as they choose whoever isn't drinking that night.

Reverse psych: the town guy steps forward, the doc should protect him, the mafia won't target him because he's protected, the doc doesn't have to protect him because the mafia won't target him, etc.

Won't there be false role claims like no tomorrow? What's to stop a bad guy from coming forward and claiming to be a townie? The townies have no way of verifying the claims when they're made. Seems like a flawed plan to me...

Indeed.

Also, the undercover agents have already lost one of their rank (allegedly) which means they can now only stop, at most, 2 lynches for the game. I wonder if they falsified any evidence on night one to make us believe that one of their own were killed?

Interesting. Makes Naz's idea worse. 3/8 shot to identify town.

ps. I'm voting not because of the bandwagon, which is growing alarmingly, but because of the ''inet is playing up, I beter vote quick'' excuse.

pps. It's lame zhao died. He was out on day 1 last round too. Just saying...
----

Muzz, there wasn't anything in the rules about lynching, except for this:

The person with the most votes at the end of the day will die. If there's a tie, I'll kill whomever reached the final number first.

Does this means that there is not total/2+1 rule? Does this also mean that if no one votes except one person that that one vote will count as most votes and still result in a lynch?

 

[Nazdakka]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sint: The Goon and the Snoop simply stay home. Then we won't hit them. 1/6 to hit the Doc, who protects the drinker, 5/6 to take out a Mafioso. Good odds, in my book. I've already pointed out that Fried's objection can be dealt with in the usual way for fake cop claims - lynch whoever the finger points to, then if they show town, lynch whoever pointed the finger. We don't have to overcomplicate things here.

 

[Thyiad1]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote: Nazdakka

Anyone that sneaky deserves to go.

Although I'm tempted to vote for the person with the longest post. So watch it!

 

[Merlin The Wizzard]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Now there is a sneaky vote. He is the first person to think of a reasonable plan, and in reward, you vote to lynch him? Allow me to return the favor.
Unvote: Sir Lister. Vote: Thyiad

 

[Sint Nikolaas]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sint: The Goon and the Snoop simply stay home.

Lmao, we simply choose not to try and block the night kill nor try and find who is active? GG disabeling two powerroles for a ruse that could've been started by an anti towner in the first place.

unvote merlin, vote naz
--

merlin, for not seeing this but voting for one who did spot it makes you next on the list. Maybe first.. this'll be great if you turn out anti-town, you gave it away in post #2 and I cought you in post #3

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

kk. Naz is in all likelihood a townie as I'd find it hard to believe a mafioso would be this adament about a rule-exploitation idea. He's done this once before in the Drixx game and he was a townie then as well.

That means that I don't like Sint and Thyiad. However, my vote stays where it's at.

I am a townie and I used my drinking ability last night (or I'm using that roleclaim as the perfect cop/snoop cover, or better yet, another round of brazen mafia play). So lo and behold, who do I spy through the bottom of the bottle but my good friend Smeg. He was out and about (and the odds are, up to no good). Yeah this is a gamble. Yes he could be a town power role but the odds are better that he is not. I'm an odds man. I say we gut him. And the more I think about it, the more I like the sound of Naz's plan.

Everyone explain why you do or do not like it.

 

[Merlin The Wizzard]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sint, this was actually listed in his plan. If the town powerroles stay put, it means there won't be any chance of them being spotted by the townie exercising the drinking option.

The goon might admittedly be useful as well, but that ability truly shines if (s)he is reasonably sure the blocked role is that of a rival faction. Those odds are pretty low at this moment (5 in 23 I think?). And even if he picks that faction, at this moment, the chances are no better then 50% that he is able to block their attack.
The snoop has the same problems. (S)He has to specify a person after all, without knowing who/what their role is. This too leaves many options open.

The drunk townie, however, gets a random name of an active char that night. This dramatically increases the chances of spotting one of the bad guys.
Further more, suppose that one of the bad guys claims to be a townie and tells us he has exercised his drinking option. He names a person he spotted that night. The odds are fairly(nay, very) high that this would be a townie, because he wouldn't name someone of his own faction, after all. (So, right now, the odds are like 2 out of 20 for the one faction, and 3 out of 21 for the other, that they actually select a member of the opposing faction).
So as soon as the name is revealed, the townie could respond. If he had been drinking (and this is the only way he could be spotted), he should have a name to announce himself. Once lynched, his role is revealed. If it is truly a townie, and he never revealed a name, he hasn't been drinking(because a townie who exercises this option and is nominated for being lynched has no reason to not tell this name), and thus could never have been spotted by the alledged townie, who is then revealed to be a one of the bad guys.

I am liking Nazdakka's plan more by the minute. It creatively uses the new ability townies have to help in identifying the wrong doers, and that is good thinking in my book.

 

[water_moon]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz honey your plan is more full of holes than Swiss cheese.

Killing the doc is okay? Folks who could do somethign constructive and interesting will just lay low? OH, and let's not forget the suicidal charge in to the mafia's hands by the drinkers!

*shake head* I'm disinclined to think of you as not one of the FAMILY but talk like that is gonna get the Don angry.

 

[water_moon]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Merlin: #1 the odds would all be out of 23, the number of peopel playing the game doesn't alter for the opposing sides.

#2 We're all bad guys, except for the cops who want to see us dead. Though the cops who want to see us dead but are bad guys are my key objection to your view. (that and VENDETTA, remember that folks?)

We can not know for 100% (until every last cop is dead) that a kill correctly reveals alliance. Nor can we count on 1 night kill per group per night We weren't the only ones to get extra abilities...

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I don't like Naz's plan at all. What's to say that the mafia just don't do anything at night? If they see we are plotting to trap them, they'll just wait and let everyone use their powers, and then go and kill us all off. The anti-town roles can easily wait us out, leaving all the townies with no roles, and no snoop investigations made.

It was a good thought, but it is not practical. If I was mafia, I know I would just wait and not act at night until the given amount of days had passed where every possible drunk had used their power.

I'd be inclined to vote for Naz, but I'm going to hope that Liquid has spotted something good.

Vote: Sir Lister of Smeg

 

[goltar25]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Naz, you're not thinking things through again. Two scenarios, both very likely, though the first is admittedly dependent on an aspect of the rules I had not previously considered.

1) Both the rival mafia and the cops target the drinker. Can the doctor prevent both kills? If so, this scenario really doesn't matter. If not, then the doctor's save is overrided by the second kill, making the drinking wasted.

2) Both mafia groups do nothing for a night. Since they're not active, they cannot be detected. According to your plan, this leaves only the doctor active, and the doctor is found that night. Then, we lynch the doctor next day. Two people drinking a night? Not good enough, with two (and possibly one night of three) kills, and NO protection beyond a lucky goon block.

I think each person should use their best judgement as to when to use their drinking ability (assuming they chose that ability) and follow that judgement, for better or worse. And for what it matters, like Liquid, I also used the ability last night. I'll reveal the name I got later, once they've posted something. I don't want them having that bit of foreknowledge.

 

[Nolecub]

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote: Nazdakka

We don't need to wait to night to find a bad guy, I believe you are one. Your plan sets the town up to fail, pure and simple. Added to the fact that Liq (your mafiaso in arms) is pushing people to explain why they do or do not like your plan is troubling to me.

It seems like a set up on your parts to see who should be the first to be NK'ed and who you can keep around and manipulate. Should I survive the night, I will be back after you both until you can convince me otherwise.

Liq - your declaration of seeing someone who has yet to provide any input to the game last night is too suspicious. But since Naz has more votes as of now, that is where I must cast.