Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

[Noodle]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

DLoveSwe

I agree with you. I don't believe Crowd Control is mafia, and killing him instead of at least attempting to take out a mafia is defeatism. That conclusion is easy to come to. More difficult - who to lynch? Who seems suspicious to you?

- Noodle

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

I take back my comment in the previous post about wicked.

Actually, xvart is the only one suggesting we lynch CC.

While the logic of "lets only lose one townie today" does indeed make sense, why bring this out now rather than earlier?

With Jaago having a recent post, that removes him from the top of my list and the next two that I am suspicious of are you (xvart) and Wicked.

wicked has not done much to raise further suspicion but on the other hand you (xvart) seem to be too much on the defensive and are now voting for CC.

Is this a desperation move to sway the town into killing one townie, thereby leaving one less for the mafia to kill?

Or are you trying to divert attention away from yourself?

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Sounds plausible xvart...that is if you're mafia and trying to get a townie killed in any event...

After all, both you and wicked have been suspicious and now you are both trying to lynch CC.



So, both xvart and wicked...why should I not vote for either of you and for CC?

I don't buy what the both of you are spinning.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I am saying we should NOT kill CC.
I am still uncertain about whether or not he will die TODAY if we do not lynch a mobster TODAY. Never in the original statement has that been made clear...

I also don't understand what the benifits are of lynching someone in day one, since the chance of it really being a mob are rather slim, and everything is based on a hunch, or on a wrong word being said.
But then again, since I am one of the accused, I would of course say such things.

Other then that, if killing one of the mobs today is the only way to save CC, It might be worth the shot. I am actually thinking CC has some kind of extra role in this game, and it would be a pity to onlly find this out the moment he dies..

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I am saying we should NOT kill CC.
I am still uncertain about whether or not he will die TODAY if we do not lynch a mobster TODAY. Never in the original statement has that been made clear...

I also don't understand what the benifits are of lynching someone in day one, since the chance of it really being a mob are rather slim, and everything is based on a hunch, or on a wrong word being said.
But then again, since I am one of the accused, I would of course say such things.

Other then that, if killing one of the mobs today is the only way to save CC, It might be worth the shot. I am actually thinking CC has some kind of extra role in this game, and it would be a pity to onlly find this out the moment he dies..

Take a look at my more recent post up there...

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

If CC's trap is the work of a SK, why is the key inside a mafia member? (also still not clear whether it is any member or a specific member).

In the event of CC's death (if we dont get a mafia) do we learn his allignment? If we do then i see absolutely no point in going for a lynch on him.

I'm still unconvinced about CC's roll. Something about this whole trap thing just seems a bit odd to me. Especially having seen the SAW films and seen the plot twist that happened in that film. It just seems all too simple that CC is a townie. I'm tempted by the lynch vote on CC. At least this way we're deffinately learning something useful to the town. The odds of us hitting a mafia arent great, so we gotta be thinking CC is going to die. (to play the odds game). So we may as well learn more about CC before he dies then risk the chance at killing a possible townie power roll on day 1. After night 1 power roll can become a bit more apparent.

I wont vote yet. If some-one convinces me of one of us being a mafia i'll think more about the possiblitiy of saving CC.

 

[DLoveSwe]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

DLoveSwe

I agree with you. I don't believe Crowd Control is mafia, and killing him instead of at least attempting to take out a mafia is defeatism. That conclusion is easy to come to. More difficult - who to lynch? Who seems suspicious to you?

- Noodle

I have like many else been suspicious of wicked for his freaking out when put against the wall and really playing the newbie card since the beginning.

And i don't know what to make of xvarts direction if its a sign of plain caution or something else.

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

I do realise that i kind of contradicted myself in the last paragraph. It's due to the fact that half way through writing it i convinced myself that maybe CC's roll isn't set in stone and also the possibility that we would not learn any alignments if he gets killed but the reverse bear trap.

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

gets killed by the reversse bear trap*

 

[Jaago]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

At least I got the picture that CC will die today if we don't nail mafia right away.

Furthermore, not lynching is always bad since it's pretty much same as giving up one townie for more or less nothing. We need to lynch potential mafia at every given opportunity. Every lynch is an opportunity, and yields information if nothing more.

The highest chance to lynch all mobsters comes from lynching as many times as possible. It's pretty simple math if you look at it.

But nevertheless, being wrong or a newbie rarely makes anyone scum instantly. I'd assume the real mafia are just watching by.


I also see now what's meant with the SK idea after reading a synopsis of the SAW movie. But I still feel pretty uncomfortable with it because of the lack of night kill... I guess we'll see about it next morning.

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

I'm no buying xvart's "The needs of the many out weigh the needs of the few or the one" story just yet.

If we lynch CC and he is a townie, then that's one down, another dies during the night and we are down by two.

If we do not lynch CC and we lynmch (lynmch?? lol) a townie by mistake, then we're still down two.

If we don't lynch CC and we do manage to lynch a mafia then CC is saved today but there's no saying he might die at night from the mafia or at any other time from some other attack (like a Vigi or SK if there are)

I'm willing to take a chance on not lynching CC at the moment.

At this point, xvart seems highest on my list of suspicious peolple to vote a lynch on. For the defensiveness of the newbie card and also the sudden vote for CC out of the blue.

SiTro isn't anywhere on my radar, even with Zhao's vote.

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Take a look at my more recent post up there...

i saw, no edit button etc..

At least I got the picture that CC will die today if we don't nail mafia right away.

seems to be that way, this is the general tought, so I will agree on it. This is an extra reason to lynch someone in the first day

Furthermore, not lynching is always bad since it's pretty much same as giving up one townie for more or less nothing. We need to lynch potential mafia at every given opportunity. Every lynch is an opportunity, and yields information if nothing more.

Here i must disagree. Isn't it so that certain townie's have a special role? accidentally killing those might lead to a big advantage towards the mobs

The highest chance to lynch all mobsters comes from lynching as many times as possible. It's pretty simple math if you look at it.

simple math:
we assume there are 4ish bad guys
that leaves 11ish good guys

lynching today is rather random so let's say, if we do decide to lynch, we'll pretty much just take a swing at someone for no good reason (i know this sounds like me saving my own *** :s). but, as u said, simple math:
chance of killing a mob= 4/15 =26%(best case scenario)
chance of killing a townie=11/15=74%

result of kiling a mob=
=>1 mob less, but they still get to kill someone every night
=>CC gets to live
total result:
3 mobs left, townies at 25% completion ratio
1 townie's dead: mobs at 9% (approx)1/11) completion ratio


results of killing a townie:
=>mobs chuckle
=>mobs kill someone over night
=>CC dies

4mobs left, townies at 0%completion ratio
3townie's dead: mobs at 27%completion ratio


result of not killing:
=> CC dies
=> 1 townie dies overnight

total result:
4mobs left, townies at 0% completion ratio
2townies dead: mobs at 18% completion ratio

conclusion
26% chance on 1death&1mobkill+74%chance on 3 deaths
versus
100% chance of 2 deaths

But nevertheless, being wrong or a newbie rarely makes anyone scum instantly. I'd assume the real mafia are just watching by.

they probably are, yet 1 of them is probably one of the active typers on this forum.

I also see now what's meant with the SK idea after reading a synopsis of the SAW movie. But I still feel pretty uncomfortable with it because of the lack of night kill... I guess we'll see about it next morning.

I don't think there has been a night yet..


P.S.: this game should be used as a psycho-analysis test.

 

[wickedswami]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

geez, srry about the long post...
it looked better in my head :s

 

[Crowd Control]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

I'm no buying xvart's "The needs of the many out weigh the needs of the few or the one" story just yet.

If we lynch CC and he is a townie, then that's one down, another dies during the night and we are down by two.

If we do not lynch CC and we lynmch (lynmch?? lol) a townie by mistake, then we're still down two.

If we don't lynch CC and we do manage to lynch a mafia then CC is saved today but there's no saying he might die at night from the mafia or at any other time from some other attack (like a Vigi or SK if there are)

I'm willing to take a chance on not lynching CC at the moment.

At this point, xvart seems highest on my list of suspicious peolple to vote a lynch on. For the defensiveness of the newbie card and also the sudden vote for CC out of the blue.

SiTro isn't anywhere on my radar, even with Zhao's vote.

I am on the same page with Gorny here.

unvote: Jaago
vote: xvart

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Xvart defintely sounds like he has something to hide from all of his posts, and I dont think lynching CC is the best play by any means at all.

@gorny from 8 pages ago. I just threw the possibility of CC being non-townie as an option. He could be the seriel killer, or some other role, or mafia put in the trap by the seriel killer or some other means we havent thought of yet. is it most likely he is townie? Of course. Doesnt mean its 100% the case though.

Vote: Xvart Seems like a good start and I agree something just sounds off.

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Surely if we lynch a non mafia then 3 people die? CC + non mafia + NK

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Surely if we lynch a non mafia then 3 people die? CC + non mafia + NK

yes but how is this different then EVERY other day. If we lynch someone, could be a townie, but it could be a mafia. if its a townie, and then the mafia lynch a townie, 2 people die instead of just the 1 at night. duh. this is not how the town wins the game. We need to lynch someone other than CC, the risk is always worth it to lynch someone as its the only way to get a fact that you know is a fact

 

[BoD Trader1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

sorry i meant to put a quote with my last post

If we do not lynch CC and we lynmch (lynmch?? lol) a townie by mistake, then we're still down two.

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Xvart defintely sounds like he has something to hide from all of his posts, and I dont think lynching CC is the best play by any means at all.

@gorny from 8 pages ago. I just threw the possibility of CC being non-townie as an option. He could be the seriel killer, or some other role, or mafia put in the trap by the seriel killer or some other means we havent thought of yet. is it most likely he is townie? Of course. Doesnt mean its 100% the case though.

Vote: Xvart Seems like a good start and I agree something just sounds off.

I agree CC might be a mafia or not and he might be a townie or not... in fact at this point that's any of us.

Xvart seems to have a hidden agenda and if not, there's still fishyness there.

vote: Xvart

Now for a twist: Where's nicro been all along?

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Adding to above:

I recall nicro being in school, he'll likely show up sooner or later.

 

[Crowd Control]

Re: Community Forum Mafia Game #2 Live or Die

Now for a twist: Where's nicro been all along?

And Ray!!!