1.13 RoF Superchest Patterns

If you're playing a Sorc, the key is to just not stop moving. Sometimes you just have to abort, but if density is consistently too much, reroll your map.

@Treeharl, thanks for the analysis. One thing I forgot about is that the LK set likely contains some locked chests here and there. If we assume all possible locked and unlocked patterns were found, then it should land at about 25% right? One could probably guess which are locked only, but you'd have to reread the thread to find which patterns are very rarely, if at all, repeated.
 
@Brak Unfortuniatly there are alot of senarios possible. So fully answerring that question isn't easy if any scenario other than 1 is true.

1. Every superchest has exactly 1/65536 to be generated it doesn't mather if a chest is locked or not. This is the same as rolling a dice with 65536 squares.

2 It does mather if a chest is locked because locked chests have some aditional picks which might be the HR. If a locked superchest with additional hr pick from its locked cycle is picked is 1/ 262144 (this could explain rare patterns) if the hr is present in the regular cycle of the locked chest the chance is aigain 1/65536.

3 Every superchest is pseudorandomly picked which means some chests have for example 3/65536 to be generated while others have 0,3/65536. it doesn't mather if a chest is locked or not.

4 Other factors influence what patterns you could get; mapseed would be the most likely in that case. Making an exact calculation if mapseed would influence the chests is inpossible.

Personally I believe senario 1 is true at this point. Remember new patterns get more rare with every pattern you confirm. At lowerkurast when you confirmed 77 of the 80 total patterns. The last 3 pattens have a 1.10 Vex+Sur+Ber odd which is 1/21845 which make them feel rare whereas they have exactly the same chance to be hit as others.

If senario 2 is true it only affects a small portion of the patterns lets say 10%. At that case we would still have 75 regular rof 1/65536 patterns and 8 rof locked 1/262114 patterns. This might be the case if we look at 1.10 patterns the Vex Sur and Ber where all regular patterns where it took nearly a half year before the first mal got confirmed. That might be an 1/262114 pattern.

If senario 3 and 4 are true I can't give any accurate calculation.
 
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Gave the model another testing with virtual data. I put 72000 chests numbered from 1 to 65536 to a random number sequence and marked patterns 1 to 83 as good patterns. I used the virtual final pattern card as marks which pattern and which rune was hit. Every session consists of 18000 chests (9 or 6k runs, depending on your chests). Session 2 looks alot like the situation of our current patterns, if session 1 was true everybody was hyped. As you can see 72K chests and 36K virtual runs wheren't enough to hit the virtual Cham pattern (talking about bad luck).

View attachment 3493
 
@Brak I have an idea! If I copypaste the line from act 4 chests c (H) content to act 3 chests c (H) I will very likely get the rof patterns at LK! What I am thinking is if I run LK with ROF patterns it would greatly help our research.

I do want to make this runs with my vanilla character, the following restrictions apply:
- I can't pickup Jah and Cham (I do make screenshots of them!).
- I can't pickup tc78 and tc81

That means I do want to make alot of runs with this configuration at players 8. I'll also have to ask @Thyiad if this is allowed or if she can make an exeption for this project. If I aply those restrictions I have no advantage of this "data shift". Since the arealvl stays at lvl 79 I don't gain any advantage over picking up charms, amu's and rings. Fact is this gives me only a disadvantage as I have way less Surs to run for.
 
I'm pretty sure jjscud did something similar, although he basically just ran several bots simultaneously for hundreds of thousands of runs to tell the spf what player settings were best for 1.13. Some people didn't like that for various reasons although I don't think he ever gave us very many specifics. Definitely check with thyiad if you want to publish results
 
If youre altering the game files, don't expect to keep any of that stuff for personal use. Unless you keep it segregated, in which case I don't see why you'd want to keep it.
 
@Brak You're right about that, although I hope in this case @Thyiad can make an exception for it. Personally I think this datashift gives me a disadvantage at LK rather than an advantage. The datashift converts the exact line act 4 (H) chest c to act 3 (H) chest b at treasureclassEx.txt. But first I have to confirm if we get exactly the same patterns (which isn't clear at this point). The only advantage I could get are Jah and Cham patterns (which I obviously can't pickup) and to a lesser extent the possibility of tc78 and 81 on the lowerkurast chests (not of any use, but I won't pick them up). Anything else drops normally at LK (charms, amu's, rings and runes in the range from Pul-Ber). I would like those to be included in the exception. I am not allowed to pickup, use or sell Jah's Cham's and tc78+ as that would give me an unfair advantage. If it doesn't work I don't need an exception and I will delete everything.

To summarize:

If LK datashift works in the way I think it works (which isn't confirmed yet) it gives us alot of information while it isn't giving me any advantage (aigain not picking up Jah and Cham). Fact is if it does work and I'll do 5K runs on it I will likely hit 15-20 new patterns within 3 weeks.

If the patterns turn out to be an entirely different set I'll delete everything.

@pharphis Unfortuniatly without going into much detail here, there is no way of any automatic program to make screenshots of patterns or log them in a txt log. If you have some more information about this we should discuss it on pm.
 
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***Breaking news***

I guess I confirmed the datashift to give the results it should. I hit the first pattern at LK with the datashift and I guess I just confirmed Ist 4. I hope @Brak has the screenshot to check if all items match. I see the Blade Bow, Battle Cestus and the Cedar staff + 5 others so I am 99,8% sure it works exactly as I thought! I have censored the screenshot because I have to pm thyiad the details. Also used my own stringpack.

Edit, it works 100% after Ist 4 I have confirmed Gul 2

View attachment 3504View attachment 3505
 
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Added Ist #8 which spawns with a Breast Plate, Gothic Staff a War Hat and a Wrist Spike. I will post uncensored screenshots at a later point
Players 7/8
Code: 
Rune     Item #1           Item #2          Item #3          Item #4          Finder
Pul #1   Chaos Armor       Executioner SwordExecutioner Sword2 others         Brak
---
Um #1    Elder Staff       Gothic Shield    Hydra Skull      Sabre            Grape
Um #2    Balrog Blade      Breast Plate     Dusk Shroud      7 others         Grisu
Um #3    Aerin Shield      Chu-Ko-Nu        Flail            5 others         NanoMist
---
Mal #1   Battle Dart       Bone Shield                                        Pb_pal
Mal #2   Blade Barrier     Great Maul       Long Sword       Razor Bow        zticazzy
Mal #3   Crossbow          Jo Staff         Tir Rune         2 others         zticazzy
Mal #4   Arbalest          Tir Rune         2-handed Axe     Lochaber Axe     Pb_pal
Mal #5   Amulet            Balrog Skin      Battle Scythe    4 others         Pb_pal
--
Ist #1   Ancient Shield    Brandistock                                        Pb_pal
Ist #2   Throwing Spear                                                       Grape
Ist #3   Balrog Blade      Pavise           Short Spear                       Brak
Ist #4   Battle Cestus     Blade Bow        Cedar Staff      5 others         Brak
Ist #5   Ghost Wand        Long War Bow     Scale Mail                        Brak
Ist #6   Brandistock       Preserved Head                                     NanoMist
Ist #7   Breast Plate      Silver-Edged Axe Ring                              Brak
Ist #8   Breast Plate      Gothic Staff     War Hat          Wrist Spike      Treeharl *LK
--
Gul #1   Diamond Bow       Dusk Shroud      Francisca                         Pb_pal
Gul #2   Gauntlets         Great Pilum      Truncheon                         Brak
Gul #3   Double Axe        Flanged Mace     Grim Shield      3 others         Pb_pal
Gul #4   Demonhide Boots   Field Plate      Stygian Pike     3 others         Pb_pal
Gul #5   Gothic Shield     Pilum            Stygian Pike                      Brak
--
Vex #1   Antlers           Falcata          Ring             Silver-Edged Axe Pb_pal
--
Ohm #1   Cantor Trophy     Ring                                               Pb_pal
Ohm #2   Dimensional Blade Jewel            Tiara            (Scimitar?)      zticazzy
Ohm #3   Balanced Knife                                                       Pb_pal
Ohm #4   Balrog Skin       Broad Sword      Devil Star       4 others         Pb_pal
Ohm #5   Bone Shield       Defender         Dragon Shield    5 others         NanoMist
Ohm #6   Bearded Axe       Mesh Belt        Spetum                            Pb_pal
Ohm #7   Bone Helm         Devil Star       Great Axe        3 others         NanoMist
--
Lo #1    War Staff                                                            Brak
Lo #2    Crown             Hatchet Hands    War Staff                         Grape
Lo #3    Large Charm       Ring Mail        Wyrmhide Boots                    Grape
--
Sur #1   Edge Bow                                                             Pb_pal
Sur #2   Amn Rune          Chain Mail       Full Helm                         zticazzy
---
Ber #1   Giant Sword                                                          Brak
 
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hey,

I finally found a good map to run LK and RoF in a straight line and I am yet to find a high rune in RoF, but there are still some things in your process I don't quite understand. Sorry if this was extensively explained before in an other thread (or in this one ? :s) but how do you report other loots in the table ? do you put magic items only ? In what order ? Magic and rares ? rares first and magics then ? I am still a bit confuse as to what these patterns are a reference to. Are they supposed to match in some ways ?

Edit: ok I took a closer look and I am stupid. If I understand correctly it's alphabetical order and remaining items at the end of the line.

sorry for the noob "crashing in" but if I am gonna spend time in this I might as well understand it fully.
If you may.
love.
candy.

Edit: @Treeharl also I am probably going to trust and follow your advice and run both LK and RoF on players5 for a while. Would you say that LK also has "more chance" to drop Ber Sur Ohm or Vex on p5/6 ? Or does it only apply to RoF?
cheers
 
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OK LOL :D :D :D
What do I do now ? LOL I'm so HYPED

tQXtLt7.png


Jah Rune on RoF players5 !!

Oh man Enigma MFO 2016 here I come baby

And to be completely clear, it DOES come from the chest and NOT from the mobs lying next to it.
 
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Well that was quick! Congrats @Carawolk! I guess it's time to start running on /p5 now :p

Seriously though, this is HUGE. If we can get some more decent patterns (Sur, maybe even Ber) at /p5 then that setting could become quite good. If a Cham shows up, well, that would just be insane. Congrats again, simply awesome! :D

EDIT: what to do next? Put that pattern in the table! What are you waiting for? :p
 
1.13 RoF Superchest Pattern Tables

Players 1-2

Code: 
Rune     Item #1           Item #2          Item #3          Item #4          Finder
Pul #1   Grim Shield       Hatchet          Long Sword       3 others         Ailelya
--
Um #1    Chain Mail        Diamond Bow                                        Ailelya
--
Mal #1   Bearded Axe       Gnarled Staff                                      mir

Players 3-4

Code: 
Rune     Item #1          Item #2          Item #3          Item #4           Finder
Ohm #1   Balanced Axe     Balanced Knife   2-Handed Sword                     Brak

Players 5-6

Code: 
Rune     Item #1          Item #2          Item #3          Item #4           Finder
Gul #1   Circlet          Pilum            Small Charm      -                 Grisu
---
Jah #1   Belt              Poignard                                           Carawolk

Players 7-8

Code: 
Rune     Item #1           Item #2          Item #3          Item #4          Finder
Pul #1   Chaos Armor       Executioner SwordExecutioner Sword2 others         Brak
---
Um #1    Elder Staff       Gothic Shield    Hydra Skull      Sabre            Grape
Um #2    Balrog Blade      Breast Plate     Dusk Shroud      7 others         Grisu
Um #3    Aerin Shield      Chu-Ko-Nu        Flail            5 others         NanoMist
---
Mal #1   Battle Dart       Bone Shield                                        Pb_pal
Mal #2   Blade Barrier     Great Maul       Long Sword       Razor Bow        zticazzy
Mal #3   Crossbow          Jo Staff         Tir Rune         2 others         zticazzy
Mal #4   Arbalest          Tir Rune         2-handed Axe     Lochaber Axe     Pb_pal
Mal #5   Amulet            Balrog Skin      Battle Scythe    4 others         Pb_pal
--
Ist #1   Ancient Shield    Brandistock                                        Pb_pal
Ist #2   Throwing Spear                                                       Grape
Ist #3   Balrog Blade      Pavise           Short Spear                       Brak
Ist #4   Battle Cestus     Blade Bow        Cedar Staff      5 others         Brak
Ist #5   Ghost Wand        Long War Bow     Scale Mail                        Brak
Ist #6   Brandistock       Preserved Head                                     NanoMist
Ist #7   Breast Plate      Silver-Edged Axe Ring                              Brak
Ist #8   Breast Plate      Gothic Staff     War Hat          Wrist Spike      Treeharl *LK
--
Gul #1   Diamond Bow       Dusk Shroud      Francisca                         Pb_pal
Gul #2   Gauntlets         Great Pilum      Truncheon                         Brak
Gul #3   Double Axe        Flanged Mace     Grim Shield      3 others         Pb_pal
Gul #4   Demonhide Boots   Field Plate      Stygian Pike     3 others         Pb_pal
Gul #5   Gothic Shield     Pilum            Stygian Pike                      Brak
--
Vex #1   Antlers           Falcata          Ring             Silver-Edged Axe Pb_pal
--
Ohm #1   Cantor Trophy     Ring                                               Pb_pal
Ohm #2   Dimensional Blade Jewel            Tiara            (Scimitar?)      zticazzy
Ohm #3   Balanced Knife                                                       Pb_pal
Ohm #4   Balrog Skin       Broad Sword      Devil Star       4 others         Pb_pal
Ohm #5   Bone Shield       Defender         Dragon Shield    5 others         NanoMist
Ohm #6   Bearded Axe       Mesh Belt        Spetum                            Pb_pal
Ohm #7   Bone Helm         Devil Star       Great Axe        3 others         NanoMist
--
Lo #1    War Staff                                                            Brak
Lo #2    Crown             Hatchet Hands    War Staff                         Grape
Lo #3    Large Charm       Ring Mail        Wyrmhide Boots                    Grape
--
Sur #1   Edge Bow                                                             Pb_pal
Sur #2   Amn Rune          Chain Mail       Full Helm                         zticazzy
---
Ber #1   Giant Sword                                                          Brak
 
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@Carawolk Congrats, that's remarkable speed hitting Jah on the second pattern. Guess it's time for my humble pie. I'm gonna keep rounding out p78, but if the hype train wants to move over to p56, I totally understand.

Also in regards to optimal LK players setting, p78 ended up so good with all the Sur patterns that noone really completed the other players settings. I'd be hugely surprised if there was a better setting, but it's not 100% confirmed
 
Brak said:
@Carawolk Congrats, that's remarkable speed hitting Jah on the second pattern. Guess it's time for my humble pie. I'm gonna keep rounding out p78, but if the hype train wants to move over to p56, I totally understand.

Also in regards to optimal LK players setting, p78 ended up so good with all the Sur patterns that noone really completed the other players settings. I'd be hugely surprised if there was a better setting, but it's not 100% confirmed
Click to expand...

I'm going to continue to run both 5/6 and 7/8 here, especially since that Ber showed up for 7/8. Unless 5/6 completely blows it out of the water, 7/8 was still very lucrative for me, and the fact that it has a higher amount of hits for "useful" runes (Ohm, Lo, Ist) is really good. If we did manage to in fact get a Jah or Cham on 7/8, that would be a very strong setting to run, hard to beat really.
 
Alright I have spoken with Thyiad and she told me that keeping the findings can never been used as I thought it would be. I will create a test character now that I WILL DELETE and do 5K lower kurast runs with ROF patterns on it. Still I have a question to the other runners.

What player setting do you want to see simulated, players 5/6 or players 7/8?

About the Jah find...

First of all congratulations of finally confirming a Jah. As I ironically expected a Jah appears at players 5/6. Fact is personally I do expect with this confirmed Jah there is a total of 3!!! Jah patterns and 1 Cham pattern at p5/6 and ~1-2 Jah patterns at p8 with 1 Cham pattern. I will elaborate this more when I have some time

Also @Pb_pal could you include my p5/6 pul in the table at page 9 or 10?
 
@Brak can you explain to me what "hitting on the second pattern" means ? I will catch up on all this knowledge since I am now obviously really interested ^^ and if any of you knows a good link where it is summarized I'd really appreciate :)

Edit: Oh I think I get it. you mean it's the second rune I found in the p5/6 category ? I'm bad -_-
 
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I still think @Brak told me earlier we should set ourselves one goal at one playersetting (though we can step out of that circle ocasionally). As I did various analyses in this thread I guess it is time to make a collective goal to work at. With my datashift I am able to get 30% of the patterns manually within 3 weeks. I'll post the chances of several patterns. The posted chances are related to my analyses and a bit to my personal opinion.

Finally to discuss what collective goal we should set:
Players 7/8: Expected chances: 1 Jah (95%), 2 Jah (60%), 3 Jah (15%), 4 Jah (>2%), 1 Cham (60%), 2 Cham (10%), 3 Cham (>0,5%) Current patterns 39. Endgoal reach 75-85% of all patterns. Expected end pattern total 83.
Players 5/6: Expected chances: 1 Jah (100%), 2 Jah (98%), 3 Jah (65%) , 4 Jah (20%), 5 Jah (>5%), 1 Cham (75%), 2 Cham (40%), 3 Cham (10%), 4 Cham (>2%) Endgoal reach 100% of all patterns if more than 2 Jah are confirmed. 3 Patterns confirmed. Expected end pattern total 50-60 ( I would guess 55 based on 37% good drops).

To add on players 7/8 favor chance of hitting more than 12 Ist patterns (<85%), 10 Ohm patterns (<75%), 3 Ber patterns (<60%).
 
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