Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

[Pyrotechnician1]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

In my limited experience as mafia, roughly half of them are usually in on the main lynch train. this obviously differs depending on circumstances, but it's typical for the day 1 lynches I've seen.

No idea of the actual number, but I suspect close to half of the mafia, and any nuetral or anti-town faction as well, since they have no qualms with voting for anyone.

For an easy lynch like SK's, I suspect them to be bunched up near the end to secure the lynch. If it was a more difficult lynch I would tend to be in early and pressure others to lynch, or abandon it and let a no-lynch day occur.

I've read this through a few times, Asrrin and a word suddenly appeared in my mind.

Sculpting.

You appear to be sculpting something here. If I was a cynical person (and if the Pope was in Rome and if bears **** in the woods), I would have considered the possibility that you are very deliberately trying to exonerate the early voters of SK and cast suspicion on the tail-enders. It's a manipulative form of theory-crafting of a sort that I tend to do when I am scum.

Is what I am suggesting at all possible?

In response to these two posts, it could definately be either or, either his personal opinion or he's trying to deter suspicion of a specific group, however since I don't really know about vote history of mafia in previous games and if the pattern would hold true to this specific game is a different matter entirely. Distinguishing the truth will be more then difficult.

So this the Dream? Intresting. From what I have read, Scum pick abilities for the dream. If we logcally assume that there is more than one ability to pick from, why pick this particuar type? I dont know their choices but this seems that they have picked an ability that makes it possible for more posting. to occur

Why? Is it possibly because they need more information to decide who to target? Or is it because they love to talk in general? Or is it something else?

My guess is as follows, either they chose and they didn't know what the effect would be, they are hoping that the town will pressure someone into giving up role information so they know who to target in the current night phase (right now), or they are trying get a better idea of who they want to remove from play that might be putting pressure on one of their own without waiting for another day cycle.

This for some reason stands out as a possible clue. Why did SK die like that, so mysteriously and seemingly by surprise? "Out of nowhere" Indicates surprise. Could this be a hint of a possible steath-based Power role or an indication of some sort of a twist that no one expected?


Of course, I could be totally overanalysing this.

Knowing SK's role and the power that the role had I'm willing to bet its more flavor then anything due to the fact that his power wouldn't prevent him from being lynched, it would only take down someone else with him.

----

In regards to Goryani's most recent post, I have to agree that not working towards a lynch either based on information that a person is scummy or in order to obtain information from lynching them is just as bad or even worse then randomly voting without a basis.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

Asrrin,it seems to me what you are saying is, look I have to be town,because look where I voted. I guess I will be able to tell if you are mafia if you vote late in a lynch then.

I'm not saying anything to profess my innocence, you are putting words in my mouth. I was asked a question about my opinion, I gave it, and now apparently you as a third party seem to think it's not "good enough" (whatever that means, as it's only my opinion) and are trying to paint me in a negative light.

Essentially, mafia votes can be placed anywhere from the first to the last vote on a train. Historically, the 3-6 votes have been considered scummy, because as you've said, you tend to hide in the middle of the pack. Lynch train starters and finishers generally receive lots of heat if the lynchee flips town. Knowing this however, creates a WIFOM scenario that makes it just as likely to vote anywhere in the pack. For instance, in my last two games as mafia I tried to by the first one on a lynch train specifically to buck this trend, while also noticing that my scum mates would often times finish near the tail end (but not usually being the last) to lynch someone. However, there are also frequent times when past scum mates have voted in the middle of the pack, normally after failing to start a lynch train on someone and hoping to prod others into finishing off the lynch train.

Like I said, I am more interested in vote patterns than on vote positions. Vote patterns are statistically the best way to catch scum. And the vote pattern I noticed the most (seeing as how it's only Day1) is the attempt at bandwagoning the newbies.

 

[Valhauros]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

RlyehExiled's "For this night ONLY you may post as though it was day":
Does the "only" implies that this dream effect, consequence, or whatever it is, is unique and cannot be repeated? or is it just a matter of wording? Goryani, what's your take on this?

Asrrin's "The bandwagoning these two (especially Val, who does not tend to post alot)":
My first vote was for Autti, who according to you "made some big mistakes", which warranted the belief in the possibility of alignment to mafia. I switched to Korialstraz after seeing his humongous slip, a substantial proof. Finally, I shifted to Skjolde to ensure a D1 lynch. If he had turned out to be scum, Wouldn't you be asking me why didn't I vote for him? I never said I had any suspicion towards him, and I insisted on lynching Korial, so we should turn to those who actually pushed for the former.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

RlyehExiled's "For this night ONLY you may post as though it was day":
Does the "only" implies that this dream effect, consequence, or whatever it is, is unique and cannot be repeated? or is it just a matter of wording? Goryani, what's your take on this?

Asrrin's "The bandwagoning these two (especially Val, who does not tend to post alot)":
My first vote was for Autti, who according to you "made some big mistakes", which warranted the belief in the possibility of alignment to mafia. I switched to Korialstraz after seeing his humongous slip, a substantial proof. Finally, I shifted to Skjolde to ensure a D1 lynch. If he had turned out to be scum, Wouldn't you be asking me why didn't I vote for him? I never said I had any suspicion towards him, and I insisted on lynching Korial, so we should turn to those who actually pushed for the former.

You usually end up posting about once a day. Why so much activity during this game vs. any other?

Also, I'm much more interested in what Bad Ash has to say in light of the cryptic questions he posed to people yesterday and his somewhat erratic behavior.

 

[Caluin Graye]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

So what if its Coju? Do you defend his mockery, or agree with it? It should not be amusing for ANY townie that 2 of us are dead. Are you saying that we should disregard this because that this is his playing style?

I am in fact saying that.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Meta

It's coju. When he's town he tends to post without analyzing what he's posting. That's called 'stream of consciousness' and is a very townie tell. I think coju is the only person I'll ever defend as "too scummy to be scum". Had it been anyone else, I'd be right there along side you.

If you disagree with me, make a case against him and place your vote on him. See if it gets any traction. Meanwhile, I'll be over here and not wasting the town's time by analyzing people more deserving of the lynch, like Autti and Korialstraz.

In my limited experience as mafia, roughly half of them are usually in on the main lynch train. this obviously differs depending on circumstances, but it's typical for the day 1 lynches I've seen.

No idea of the actual number, but I suspect close to half of the mafia, and any nuetral or anti-town faction as well, since they have no qualms with voting for anyone.

For an easy lynch like SK's, I suspect them to be bunched up near the end to secure the lynch. If it was a more difficult lynch I would tend to be in early and pressure others to lynch, or abandon it and let a no-lynch day occur.

While I disagree with your first answer, I appreciate your responses.

I personally would think that scum would not be aboard any easy townie train. At least, not more than a few. If it's easy, then let the townies do all the work and not draw any suspicion by being part to a town lynch.

Isn't there a term for that?

I call it the CG patented "Coin Flipping Multiple Times Analogy of Super Duper Awesomeness." I think it'll catch on.

 

[Gwaihir]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

I call it the CG patented "Coin Flipping Multiple Times Analogy of Super Duper Awesomeness." I think it'll catch on.

so CFMTASDA?

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

Again, I'm wondering why you, of all people, need to ask these questions.

Cause you screwed up.

In no particular order:
It's possible to work toward a lynch without having a vote at the time or at the end of the day. It's working toward a lynch: not lurking toward a lynch. I normally phrase it "pursuit of a lynch." Since this is night and since you said you would do a deep meta analysis on me this night, I'll help you with phrases to look for.

Please clarify, how were you in pursuit of a lynch this day phase? And I don't think I'll think highly of your interpretation of pursuing a lynch if you thought that was what I did. I gathered information and remembered stuff to use later.

It's possible to not vote the lynchee because you think they aren't scum. I'm not claiming this reason this game. I'm claiming this reason in the WoT game. I voiced my displeasure at The Plan several times.

Saying you oppose a certain plan means jack ****.

II worked toward obtaining a lynch on D1. I asked lots of questions of lots of players. I gave lots of opinions. To imply that Noodle and I had such similar behavior that I deserve scolding for calling him out is to admit you didn't pay attention to anything I have written this game.

Fair enough, I glanced over all the dreaming nonsense. I read all your 'pursuit of a lynch' stuff and I'm not impressed.

In case you didn't notice (I guess not), I had a vote yesterday. In case you didn't notice (I guess not), I placed myself in a position to change my vote before the scheduled end of day.

Guess what, I had three votes yesterday and ended up in a similar position. Did I win?

But there was still time to see if the Scum had the balls to put the locking vote. Granted it would be unlikely that they would so so, as in that situation they benefit either way. Either everyone chickens out from fear of death and SK is not lynched and Town would have less info to go on from there being a No lynch D1. Or of course 2 Townies die.

(...)

Why did he place the locking vote on SK, knowing full well that he (JCakes) is Town? Why not wait and let a Scum step up to the plate? We could have had an extra player to aid the Town.

Would you have pointed out the scum to finally lock Skjolde? Who would you point at? Your main scum suspect was Skjolde himself? Are you so good that you already had multiple scum pegged? On day one? Give me a break...

It should not be amusing for ANY townie that 2 of us are dead.

Granted a first time player having such an ability at that exact time makes it kinda funny.

RlyehExiled's "For this night ONLY you may post as though it was day":
Does the "only" implies that this dream effect, consequence, or whatever it is, is unique and cannot be repeated? or is it just a matter of wording? Goryani, what's your take on this?

Nice to see you're spending your energy following up promising leads...

 

[Laarz]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

I'm not saying anything to profess my innocence, you are putting words in my mouth. I was asked a question about my opinion, I gave it, and now apparently you as a third party seem to think it's not "good enough" (whatever that means, as it's only my opinion) and are trying to paint me in a negative light.

Essentially, mafia votes can be placed anywhere from the first to the last vote on a train. Historically, the 3-6 votes have been considered scummy, because as you've said, you tend to hide in the middle of the pack. Lynch train starters and finishers generally receive lots of heat if the lynchee flips town. Knowing this however, creates a WIFOM scenario that makes it just as likely to vote anywhere in the pack. For instance, in my last two games as mafia I tried to by the first one on a lynch train specifically to buck this trend, while also noticing that my scum mates would often times finish near the tail end (but not usually being the last) to lynch someone. However, there are also frequent times when past scum mates have voted in the middle of the pack, normally after failing to start a lynch train on someone and hoping to prod others into finishing off the lynch train.

Like I said, I am more interested in vote patterns than on vote positions. Vote patterns are statistically the best way to catch scum. And the vote pattern I noticed the most (seeing as how it's only Day1) is the attempt at bandwagoning the newbies.

No Asrrin,I was making an observation, I agree people, whither town or scum, can vote anywhere or nowhere on a lynch, then you turn around and do what you accuse me of. When have I ever said I tend to try to hide in the middle of the pack, I have gotten more greif for my habit of voting late it seems to me. I agree voting patterns can help find scum, but deciding that a certain place on a lynch makes a person more or less likely to be town or scum doesn't seem correct to me, once people know that someone is looking for such a thing I would think they do like you said and try change up their voting.

 

[Solar Ice]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

I am in fact saying that.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Meta

It's coju. When he's town he tends to post without analyzing what he's posting. That's called 'stream of consciousness' and is a very townie tell. I think coju is the only person I'll ever defend as "too scummy to be scum". Had it been anyone else, I'd be right there along side you.

If you disagree with me, make a case against him and place your vote on him. See if it gets any traction. Meanwhile, I'll be over here and not wasting the town's time by analyzing people more deserving of the lynch, like Autti and Korialstraz.

I don't really put much salt in it for the following reason.

Coju would then preumably know that that is his playstyle in other games when he is Town. Following that, do you agree that it is possible that he got the Scum role for this particular game? Would then he not delibrately post something like that to make it seem that he is Town again. Why? In order to get experienced players like yourself thinking just like you are now. Ie. "Well, he posted some very scummy gibberish when he played Town before and loads of times at that, so therefore he must be Town again. Please Ignore!" Do you also agree that there is a possiblily that he is delibrately trying to sow seeds of confusion?

And how do we know that both of you are not scum and have not delibrately concocted this "look at me I'm metagaming" strategy?

Can you for 100% vouch for him and say that he is not Scum?


Also if you want to talk about metagaming, take a look at the Black Blood Brothers game. In it Coju was a regular poster with 19 posts in 10 pages (yes, I went and counted) before he was lynched and it turned out that he was Town. How many posts does he have in this one? With, what, 1 or 2 in 43 pages? Going by that statistic and taking metagaming into consideration - would that now indicate to you that he is Scum?


What -if anything- does his comment, and you quickly jumping to his defense, really indicate? He has posted 1 - maybe 2 - posts this entire game, one of which is as scummier - if not more- than anything I have read thus far.
About making a case, time will tell. One could argue that his "lolz" post is enough for a lynch, regardless of how he played before. But I wont jump into conclusions yet by his post alone in the event that you are correct about him (and if you are Town).

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

I do agree that lurking is a generally scummy sign. If there were no other more likely targets, I could be persuaded to vote for someone like coju based on lurking, but I feel we have other avenues to explore.

Also, I'd like everyone to know that I will be vacationing in SC Friday through Tuesday. I will still be on and contributing, but if I seem to not post as often or at different times, this is why. My Uncle has cancer and this is the first time he's letting vistors come down because he's feeling a whole lot better. So just fyi.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

RlyehExiled's "For this night ONLY you may post as though it was day":
Does the "only" implies that this dream effect, consequence, or whatever it is, is unique and cannot be repeated? or is it just a matter of wording? Goryani, what's your take on this?

To start with: Yes, I think the night talk is part of a dream effect.

Are Dreams one-and-done abilities? My initial guess was yes. I think the Dreaming God being mafia and not neutral is a pretty big spin. I don't think the Dreaming God can have very many spins and still be a Dreaming God. Therefore, I think the other aspects as listed on the wiki page are more likely to be within this game. Dreams as one shot abilities is one of those aspects.

My current guess is still yes (dreams are one shot abilities) but I'm less certain now. I'm not sure what to think of the D1 "dream" anymore. That effect is a dream I was fairly certain to be among the list but the timing of it's use didn't seem appropriate. Dreams affecting the next day and the next night seem entirely plausible. However, I question having two dreams already. If dreams are one shot and two have been chosen before mafia choose their first night kill, then the pool of dreams must be HUGE. It seems obvious to me at least one assumption is wrong. I don't know which or if both.

Assuming, for a bit, that dreams are NOT one shot abilities, then I think RE's explicit warnings are intended to prevent the need for having to decide whether a later transgressor should be modkilled.

While I disagree with your first answer, I appreciate your responses.

I think the first answer is a pretty generic answer but that doesn't mean it shouldn't hold in this case. I assume as much any time a townie is lynched. Easy lynch or hard lynch.

I personally would think that scum would not be aboard any easy townie train. At least, not more than a few. If it's easy, then let the townies do all the work and not draw any suspicion by being part to a town lynch.

How many mafia do you think exist in this game?

Please clarify, how were you in pursuit of a lynch this day phase?

Allow myself to quote myself: I asked lots of questions of lots of players. I gave lots of opinions.

To expand: My questions let players get a feel for me and for the players I interact with. It provides information and insight for use yesterday and later in the game. Interactions among players progress the game.

And I don't think I'll think highly of your interpretation of pursuing a lynch if you thought that was what I did. I gathered information and remembered stuff to use later.

I don't think you were lurking. How would you define your behavior if not "pursuing a lynch?"

Saying you oppose a certain plan means jack ****.

Congratulations! You ignored the most important part of the idea! Why do you think I must vote for someone I think ISN'T mafia in order to say I pursue a lynch?

Fair enough, I glanced over all the dreaming nonsense. I read all your 'pursuit of a lynch' stuff and I'm not impressed.

I guess we have that much in common.

Guess what, I had three votes yesterday and ended up in a similar position. Did I win?

If you judge yourself by the same scale you judge me, then I guess you "win" by thinking you didn't help the town yesterday. If you judge yourself by the scale I judge you, then no, you didn't "win."

Cause you screwed up.

That much seems apparent. I don't know how you did it, but you seem to know my role. You even breadcrumbed me in front of everyone. What a way to show your townie quality.

I'm a Paladin. Cop.

 

[Caluin Graye]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

I think the first answer is a pretty generic answer but that doesn't mean it shouldn't hold in this case. I assume as much any time a townie is lynched. Easy lynch or hard lynch.

Sure. Obviously the scenario changes as the game progresses, depending on how many townies have been lynched versus how many scum, etc etc etc. I was just thinking in broad strokes.

How many mafia do you think exist in this game?

If this were my game, I'd balance for roughly 30%, so six or seven. But it's not my game.


@Solar Ice: I can answer your entire post of questions with a single sentence: If you think coju is scum, then make a case and lay down your vote for him.

 

[Noodle]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

Not crazy about role claims this early in the game, but oh well. Goryani, is it too early for you to have investigated anyone?

 

[Kestegs]

Claiming cop before you even make a single investigation? (I assume)

seems foolish.

I won't be around a whole lot due to RL circumstances, just to let everyone know. I'll still be popping in as much as possible though.

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

You usually end up posting about once a day. Why so much activity during this game vs. any other?

Also, I'm much more interested in what Bad Ash has to say in light of the cryptic questions he posed to people yesterday and his somewhat erratic behavior.

if you are "much more" interested heres an idea: go read my posts.

 

[Autti]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

That much seems apparent. I don't know how you did it, but you seem to know my role. You even breadcrumbed me in front of everyone. What a way to show your townie quality.

I'm a Paladin. Cop.

Seems to me like a very strange time to claim cop, not to mention quit detrimental to the town at this stage if you are the cop.

 

[coju]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

Claiming cop? Doesn't this put a big X on your back?

Unless, of course, he never gets nk'd or has some sort of nk immunity...

 

[Autti]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

my bets would be he is either scum, or he has a power to see who contacted him, hoping to lure scum to target him over night.

either way, i doubt he is the cop, as that would just be a bad play.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Roles of Madness. Mafia Thread

Not crazy about role claims this early in the game, but oh well. Goryani, is it too early for you to have investigated anyone?

Not too early for an investigation at all. I've investigated Laarz. Result: Innocent.

I wanted to investigate a low post count player. Laarz wouldn't have been my first choice. The D1 story caused me to not choose any top choices as I didn't want to be tempted to investigate a player twice.

Now I suppose we get to debate the dream issue again, much to Sathoris' delight.

Seems to me like a very strange time to claim cop, not to mention quit detrimental to the town at this stage if you are the cop.

Cop is safer to early claim than our normal habit of docs.

Claiming cop? Doesn't this put a big X on your back?

Unless, of course, he never gets nk'd or has some sort of nk immunity...

I seem to have a big X on my back no matter if I claim or don't claim. Living to night 4 is a luxury I rarely get to see.

 

[Kestegs]

Claiming cop? Doesn't this put a big X on your back?

Unless, of course, he never gets nk'd or has some sort of nk immunity...

Nothing to say about all if this talk about you?