Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

[Bad Ash]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

No surprise there as you've been on my case for the last 3 games for no reason.

I'd love to hear an explanation how investigating gorny is the most beneficial of the 3 when we KNOW HIS ROLE. It isn't even a given that we will get the two people he switched as TC has said so specifically. If he wants to, go for it! It is not my role and it is not my choice. I would want to get the most possible information from it and since we know gornys role my two cents is that he is the worst person to "coronate"

Please explain to me how this is false

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

If Mara is guessing (i.e., not the cop), and TC turns out to be pro-town if/when a lynch happens, then Mara is home free. Already knows who the townies are, can sell out one of his buddies to make it look good.

If TC turns out to be anti-town, then Mara is SOL and lynched the next day. Huge blow to the mafia.

Seems like a very risky gambit to play, especially when the mafia is technically winning.

The presence of a SK or second mafia faction make things a little more interesting (confusing) but your analysis seems fairly accurate. I slightly disagree with a couple points though.

First off, if Mara is guessing (not a cop) there is a good chance he is mafia and knows TC will turn up town unless TC is the SK. At that point, a cornered mafia could play the odds by claiming to know Soandso is townie (see last game and lots of other games for examples). Choosing TC is probably a safer play than picking someone at random since TC has already claimed. At some point, people will start to ask why the cop only receives pro-town or anti-town and claiming to investigate someone else will only hasten such questions because that someone else might know things not mentioned thus far. [C wut I did their?]

The second nitpick follows the first. TC flipping pro-town is entirely possible from the mafia perspective if TC isn't mafia so it's an easy prediction. If TC turns out to be anti-town after all, Mara just bought an extra day of life, again, so he's still helping mafia buddies (by then, mafia might have the vote block to stop his lynch after all). It's a strategically smart play for cornered mafia to do so. Mara turning up anti-town doesn't remove all suspicion on TC (third party and all that) so there is little downside to picking TC as the fake investigation.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

No surprise there as you've been on my case for the last 3 games for no reason.

I'd love to hear an explanation how investigating gorny is the most beneficial of the 3 when we KNOW HIS ROLE. It isn't even a given that we will get the two people he switched as TC has said so specifically. If he wants to, go for it! It is not my role and it is not my choice. I would want to get the most possible information from it and since we know gornys role my two cents is that he is the worst person to "coronate"

Please explain to me how this is false

The information about Gorny's switch may get to be more useful than you think. To me it seems like you obviously realize this, but you're trying to downplay it's signifigance. I'd rather know who he switched with who, which in lieu of future information may or may not provide leads, whereas knowing a random dead persons role is just going to reduce one plausible fake claim off the list. And seeing how our alleged cop, coroner and doc are still alive, I don't see how getting that City Slicker description off of Laarz is more useful.

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

The presence of a SK or second mafia faction make things a little more interesting (confusing) but your analysis seems fairly accurate. I slightly disagree with a couple points though.

First off, if Mara is guessing (not a cop) there is a good chance he is mafia and knows TC will turn up town unless TC is the SK. At that point, a cornered mafia could play the odds by claiming to know Soandso is townie (see last game and lots of other games for examples). Choosing TC is probably a safer play than picking someone at random since TC has already claimed. At some point, people will start to ask why the cop only receives pro-town or anti-town and claiming to investigate someone else will only hasten such questions because that someone else might know things not mentioned thus far. [C wut I did their?]

The second nitpick follows the first. TC flipping pro-town is entirely possible from the mafia perspective if TC isn't mafia so it's an easy prediction. If TC turns out to be anti-town after all, Mara just bought an extra day of life, again, so he's still helping mafia buddies (by then, mafia might have the vote block to stop his lynch after all). It's a strategically smart play for cornered mafia to do so. Mara turning up anti-town doesn't remove all suspicion on TC (third party and all that) so there is little downside to picking TC as the fake investigation.

Exactly the point. Though I am leaning towards believing Mara, making a correct choice by guessing TC as Coroner doesn't make him a cop without a doubt.

However, I do have a question. Why was there only one attempted kill tonight? Will there be a sudden "discovery" that will lead to death (like the poisoning) later on in the day? Or perhaps the mafia tried to kill the SK, and that the SK can't be NK (I think someone mentioned that this has happened in the previous games).

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

However, I do have a question. Why was there only one attempted kill tonight? Will there be a sudden "discovery" that will lead to death (like the poisoning) later on in the day? Or perhaps the mafia tried to kill the SK, and that the SK can't be NK (I think someone mentioned that this has happened in the previous games).

Maybe the SK operates by day, and hasn't sent in his/her action yet?

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

The reason for the mistake regarding my ability being used during the night was due to the frustration that one caused and the pressure of being lynched. I agree it looks quite suspicious but I'm only human. Mistakes happen.

Who I would like to see lynched? Valhauros since he has, yet again, avoided my question or maybe Marahumm as the investigation on Miss Leo should have provided some information, even if she was dead. Cops don't get information about a player only if they are blocked or the host knows that said cop will die that night.
Sathoris is also a bit suspicious because he pushed for my lynch two days in a row which resulted in a no lynch situation. But, as I said before, he could just be a townie that won't see others perspectives. Or he could be an aggressive mafia player who tries to look town. Other than that, I got nothing.
However, I will never vote for myself in order to prevent a no lynch situation, even if I stand by the fact that a lynch is better than a no lynch. Unless I was a vanilla townie with no abilities whatsoever. I believe I still have one of the most powerful abilities a townie can have apart from my investigative powers, but I won't reveal this information unless I am lynched or some other specific event happens as that would render it useless.
I'm off to sleep, when I wake up I will make up my mind on whose body to investigate.

TC, so you're still hiding something, are you saying you have more abilities you haven't spoken of? If you need, you need to let us know ASAP or put these powers to use. Right now, I'm leaning HEAVILY on lynching you. This is your last chance, because there will not be another day without a lynch, and you are the only one who is even close to getting lynched.

Also, why do you keep making these mistakes? Val is dead already, there is NO WAY you missed that mod-killed. Is one of your traits that you have to lie or something? Because there's no way the great TC can be making all these mistakes because of his "nervousness" of being lynched.

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Maybe the SK operates by day, and hasn't sent in his/her action yet?

That doesn't explain the kidnapping AND strangling during night phase number 2 though. If no one suddenly dies by nightfall, that would make my theory much more certain.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

secondly, Val was modkilled yesterday.

I totally forgot about that when I wrote the things about Valhauros. I blame it on the time being close to 4 am in the morning and the fact that there are quite a few newbies which I haven't played with thus far.

The cloth thing doesn't really sound like being saved, it sounds like a self-protection to me. Of course, I guess it could be a patch-up job by the doctor... Hmm, it seems hard to say.

I agree.

Real quick before I read back on everything I missed (so much **** going on this weekend), I investigated ThunderCat last night phase and he turned up protown.

I promise to be more active this day phase than last, and will post my thoughts on everything in the next post I make.

Are you telling us that you are only getting alignments?

TC, so you're still hiding something, are you saying you have more abilities you haven't spoken of? If you need, you need to let us know ASAP or put these powers to use. Right now, I'm leaning HEAVILY on lynching you. This is your last chance, because there will not be another day without a lynch, and you are the only one who is even close to getting lynched.

Also, why do you keep making these mistakes? Val is dead already, there is NO WAY you missed that mod-killed. Is one of your traits that you have to lie or something? Because there's no way the great TC can be making all these mistakes because of his "nervousness" of being lynched.

As mentioned, I am hiding it because if I'd told you what it was, it would render it useless. But I will reveal everything before I get lynched. And I get get NKed before doing so, it's nothing that would interfere with anyone.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Why was there only one attempted kill tonight? Will there be a sudden "discovery" that will lead to death (like the poisoning) later on in the day?

We can't discount the possibility of night killing factions targeting the same player. One doc save could account for both night kill actions. We also can't discount 'every other night' or other 'limited shot' roles. Nor can we discount a vigilante. For all we know, either Laarz or Leo are anti-town and taken out by someone pro-town. Just some of the many questions that pop up until the town knows more about the basic game layout.

Or perhaps the mafia tried to kill the SK, and that the SK can't be NK (I think someone mentioned that this has happened in the previous games).

I haven't seen a night kill immune SK and hope I never do. I've never heard of one either. It's as close to a 'Bad Manners' role as any. A simple night kill immune player is far more likely. They don't occur in many games, but when they do, they seem to always get tested and are a cause of multiple failed kills.

Maybe the SK operates by day, and hasn't sent in his/her action yet?

That theory certainly explains the desire to learn of Gorny's N1 target(s). It assumes the mafia N1 kill was messed with, that Feysal wasn't the target, that the busdriver targeted the mafia's target, and that a townie power role also targeted the mafia target.

It's technically possible, but not probable. However, even if true, ask yourself who benefits most from the info. Mafia.

That doesn't explain the kidnapping AND strangling during night phase number 2 though. If no one suddenly dies by nightfall, that would make my theory much more certain.

Which theory? The night kill immune serial killer? Such a theory is far from certain. I think there are many more "normal" explanations.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I would also like to point out that, usually, when Gorny plays bus driver, every night he switches himself with someone else. I've seen it done in a game before and I'm willing to believe this was the case on the first night in this game also. Which I why I've sent in a PM to Uraj asking for an investigation on Laarz, which has a 75% chance of revealing his role and alignment.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

That theory certainly explains the desire to learn of Gorny's N1 target(s). It assumes the mafia N1 kill was messed with, that Feysal wasn't the target, that the busdriver targeted the mafia's target, and that a townie power role also targeted the mafia target.

It's technically possible, but not probable. However, even if true, ask yourself who benefits most from the info. Mafia.

The killing faction would only get to know who their kill got veered off to. I don't see that being hugely beneficial to them. To us however, as information unfold, I'd hold it pretty valuable.

Either way, I'm sort of against lynching TC today. I'd actually rather take a stab in the dark, give him and Mara another chance to provide information. Should they fail to do so / it's obviously faulty, by all means, let's lynch them.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I received information about Laarz's body. It seems he was the Head of Security. Pro town.

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

We can't discount the possibility of night killing factions targeting the same player. One doc save could account for both night kill actions. We also can't discount 'every other night' or other 'limited shot' roles. Nor can we discount a vigilante. For all we know, either Laarz or Leo are anti-town and taken out by someone pro-town. Just some of the many questions that pop up until the town knows more about the basic game layout.

If two factions targeted the same would-be victim, I feel like Uraj would have included that in his detailed story. However, all your other points could be possible I guess.

The killing faction would only get to know who their kill got veered off to. I don't see that being hugely beneficial to them. To us however, as information unfold, I'd hold it pretty valuable.

Either way, I'm sort of against lynching TC today. I'd actually rather take a stab in the dark, give him and Mara another chance to provide information. Should they fail to do so / it's obviously faulty, by all means, let's lynch them.

The problem though is, at this pace, they will be seriously delaying us.

TC, the analysis better not come back "failed", because that'll probably be the last straw:l

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I received information about Laarz's body. It seems he was the Head of Security. Pro town.

Can you give us more information on exactly what this role provides? Or is that all you know?

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I have provided all the information I was given. All I can do is speculate at this point.

 

[Caluin Graye]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I've thought about it some more. Lynching Mara or TC is not in the town's best interests.

However, if the town is dead set on going through with this route, lynching Mara first is the correct course of action. If he was telling the truth, then TC is clean. If he turns up scum, then we've bought a little time and can revisit our concerns about TC.

The opposite, lynching TC first, tells us relatively nothing about Mara. Scum or cop, Mara knows if TC is pro-town or not, and I believe scum has zero reason to lie to protect their own. They're winning this game already.

That being said, I'll repeat my first sentence to be absolutely clear: The Town should not lynch Mara or TC right now. We have a better chance of tagging a scummie by lynching someone else.

I'm leaning towards KrazeyIvan or BadAsh.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

The killing faction would only get to know who their kill got veered off to. I don't see that being hugely beneficial to them. To us however, as information unfold, I'd hold it pretty valuable.

If I were mafia, I'd be extremely interested in learning of a self-targeting doc or NK immune player thwarting my plans. I'd also be interested if Gorny targeted a mafia hitman to indicate the presence of a roleblocker. Mafia could learn a considerable amount from Gorny. They will probably learn more from Gorny than the town will until a mass claim occurs. They will DEFINITELY learn more from Gorny than the town until the power role claims. Day 3 is probably early for a mass claim in an open-ended game. Day 3 isn't early for some power role claims but it all depends on what information they have.

I received information about Laarz's body. It seems he was the Head of Security. Pro town.

Whoa. That's an eye opener. Time to put on the thinking cap.

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

The information about Gorny's switch may get to be more useful than you think. To me it seems like you obviously realize this, but you're trying to downplay it's signifigance. I'd rather know who he switched with who, which in lieu of future information may or may not provide leads, whereas knowing a random dead persons role is just going to reduce one plausible fake claim off the list. And seeing how our alleged cop, coroner and doc are still alive, I don't see how getting that City Slicker description off of Laarz is more useful.

This is just off based and wrong and TC agreed with me or he would have followed your advice. Ankeli and Calvin are very high on my scum list for pushing TC into wanting to investigate gorny. If you noticed, I never told TC who to investigate because I had no reason for him not to do what he wanted. I was obv. against Gorny but never told him who to look up

That doesn't explain the kidnapping AND strangling during night phase number 2 though. If no one suddenly dies by nightfall, that would make my theory much more certain.

Its possible the kidnapping is an every other night kind of deal



I am going to Vote: Marahumm

I have very good reason for this and I hope the town sees it as well

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I'm still thinking there are better ones but we will never get the votes

Not with that attitude. If you think someone else is a better lynch target then name him with some evidence and we may well switch. This is almost as bad as TC's threat on Mara.

since he has, yet again, avoided my question

You still haven't Goryani's question either, I called you on it and ignored it as well. You can't use that reasoning if you yourself are guilty of it aswell.

Sathoris is also a bit suspicious because he pushed for my lynch two days in a row which resulted in a no lynch situation.

So my scumhunting and sticking to my beliefs caused a no lynch situation twice? Give me a break, the only reason we didn't have a lynch was because people didn't bother to show up and vote. Nobody gave a valid alternative. Let them find someone to lynch then and I'll just lurk without voting..

I believe I still have one of the most powerful abilities a townie can have apart from my investigative powers, but I won't reveal this information unless I am lynched or some other specific event happens as that would render it useless.

Sorry to say this, but you haven't exactly dazzled us with your powerful abilities. So far you've given us nothing to work on.

Speculative question:
If TC was mafia and had strangled Laarz, he would have known Laarz's role and thus could have set himself up with a fictitious "Coroner" role.
This isn't what has happened - he claims to have investigated Feysal and come up with a role. What's more, it is a role I have reason to believe is correct.

You have reason to believe it's correct because it's already been confirmed by Valhauros. Don't give credit to TC for mentioning that rolename.

And the mafia almost always get the rolename of the people they killl. The fact that it's not even automatic (as you'd expect) or like the standard coroner role, but it's precisely a role the mafia can take advantage of.

You of all people should know that claiming cop isn't a Harry Potter invisibility cloak. The insistence of Feysal and some others of never lynching a claimed power role the day they claim ensures that is how mafia will behave if cornered: claim a power role and give as little info as possible. Fake claiming to have investigated one's self for sanity and claiming failure to investigate the recently deceased fall under that umbrella. Not undertaking any steps to improve one's claimed investigations also falls under that category.

I believe that you believe this. Therefore, I'm unsure why you are going against that belief by listing what you would normally consider pro-town behavior as reason to find someone scummy.

Claiming cop on D1 as mafia is bound to get you lynched sometime in the game when it's obvious you're not giving us proper investigations. Lynching him on the day he claimed is stupid, because if mara was telling the truth we would know about it later, if he didn't we would know it aswell. No need to quicklynch him just because he claimed.

P.S. - TC's 'give me a better target' line came BEFORE Mara soft claimed cop. It came after the soft claim of power role but before Mara's 'I'm sane' comment. A LOT of players are getting that timeline messed up.

Your point? I had my quotes correct.

Why is it convenient he couldn't get Leo's role? It sounds like you know that Leo had a role other than cityslicker.

Because the only 'evidence' he gave us is a role we already know to be in the game. Val's modkilled confirmed he was a cityslicker. Giving us another cityslicker would look weak and he can't just make some role up incase someone else holds it. A convenient no result means he doesn't have to lie to us.

---

Order of quotes may be mixed but I kept losing internet connection and things got complicated. Decided to post before I lost it all. Need to get home to a proper connection to read and comment on the rest.

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

You of all people should know that claiming cop isn't a Harry Potter invisibility cloak. The insistence of Feysal and some others of never lynching a claimed power role the day they claim ensures that is how mafia will behave if cornered: claim a power role and give as little info as possible. Fake claiming to have investigated one's self for sanity and claiming failure to investigate the recently deceased fall under that umbrella. Not undertaking any steps to improve one's claimed investigations also falls under that category.

And perhaps you need to get your timeline correct. My remark about TC still 'threatening' Mara was only after he claimed cop and before he claimed the investigation on leo failed. So you commenting on it now with the knowledge of Mara's failed investigation on leo to try and discredit me is just wrong.