Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre
Brace yourselves, brew a pot of tea, assume crash positions, stroke a nearby cat with a crazed smile on your face... generally do whatever you'd do in a state of emergency. Back home now and there's enough posts now for the next monster.
As to the suspicious posts I was unsure about last night, I decided to give them both points. Something set alarm bells ringing in my head, and I can still kind of see why. And though we had a power cut here last night, I had reset my clock beforehand. Table will be at the bottom of this post.
Actually, looking at that idea again I think that if it's true then the roleblocker is on the (an?) opposing side to the mafia. I've pretty much discounted it as a workable idea anyway, I don't think the theory holds up well enough when it's given more serious attention devoted to it.
A random vote for me citing "The voices" and your gut and heart? You've always seemed to be irked at what I say/do - get over it. Why not show you've got the guts to say what you think of everyone else's posting?
This post doesn't sit right with me at all. The first part of it sounds like you're trying to establish some control over how the cop acts. And I can't think of any player who would have more benefit to that than a mafioso trying ward the cop off him and his buddies.
The second part of the post is odd as well. No reason to go poking anyone? There's a dead Thyiad been found this morning! Also possibly waiting to bandwagon with a random vote even though the anti-town implications of that are known.
1 MP for the odd first half of the post, 1 MP for the voting strategy.
Thought I wouldn't wait until they were requested this time round.
Good point. To be completely honest, when I read through the thread again this evening I realised then that my theory about that had several flaws. I'm happy to wait until he's released to tell us his own story about what happened. Or stories. Or stories + role claim.
Oh definitely. I succeeded King Aman when he abdicated and blew up Mr. Zhao. One of my early decisions was to appoint Ray as governor so that I didn't have to deal with all the paperwork and could spend my days playing squash and consuming fine beers. Rest assured that I am just as distressed as everyone else by the presence of such vile evil-doers in this town and have arrived to do my bit for my people.
I'm in favour of a lynching every single day. I'm not in favour of a senseless vote, 'lynching for the sake of lynching' a you put it. I think there's a distinction to be made here. Yes there's a much greater chance of hitting a townie than a mafia at this point in the game. But there's also a much greater chance of hitting a mafia compared to not lynching anyone. (0) The other thing to consider is that it's not just the identity of the lynchee that we learn. If someone is going to be lynched then people have to vote for them, and often a lot can be learned from looking at how people vote. Unfortunately this message is often just understood as "We need to lynch every single day", which mostly works well enough. The danger is that, as has happened today, it's very easy to simplify that further to "Day 1 = random lynch is ok". Which is not the original intent.
This was a good post though until the last paragraph. For someone whose game I have yet to see played, that's a good vibe.
Read my post please. I wasn't saying that Soylentred made irrelevant posts, I was pointing out that she was drawing more information from what had happened than was actually able to be worked out rationally. That's not irrelevant, it's a logical error. Irrelevance looks like this:
I am a pirate though, bandana to boot.* It was actually Zhao who made comments similar to what you describe, though even he described it as filler material. MP gained for possibly deliberate (?) misquote.
Your lack of length is disturbing. Seriously, I'm not "chasing my tail" with all this, at least that's not the intention. I'm just thinking about what I read and posting what I think about how other people are playing. If you have a problem with that then say so and maybe I should focus on specific people at a time. If my posts happen to be longer than most other people's, so be it.
I'd argue that nk's, and by extension the presence of a mafia/anti-town faction are the worst things for the town. But you're right, a non-poster is often a sign of an inexperienced mafia.
Yep folks, a bandwagon! Of, er, three votes with a further seven required to seal in the lynch. These are dire times indeed.
Or what? You're a Village Idiot and would win if that happened? I don't think you'd have reacted in this way if that was the case. For now, To Be Continued...
I wasn't exactly being serious. Read back over some of the more recent games. You might notice I'm normally a little bit of a joker regarding the first poster. Your alleged reaction to this is interesting though, a little too defensive.
Alleged? Yeah. You didn't exactly back off after my first post. In fact you carried on posting in the same style until round about the time of my third post (a few hours later) then there's a gap until you posted again earlier. Which could be explained by sleeping for a few hours in between. I don't think you really back off that much at all.
You were the cop last time. It kind of helps when it comes to knowing for sure a given player's mafiacity.
I explained earlier that I find this kind of statement unsettling. +1 MP.
This is good logic. Trust no one implicitly. Decide for yourselves, especially when reading posts like this. Sure, these 'monster' '2000 word essays' are still useful, but you have to consider always whether you think the conclusions of the author are justified. And if you disagree, does that make you suspicious of anything about how they are playing. I wouldn't normally post something like this, but in recent games I think the town's been too keen to follow other people's thought blindly. Aman used to complain of this after the early-mid SPF games. I think that might be why he's a pathological role-claimer now.
I'm trying my best here.
That's the beauty of probability. If there's a positive chance that something can happen, then it can. Since the assignment of roles is (hopefully - Ray? Liq? Aman?) independent, then you being on the same side each game is a possibility. In fact, me being a doctor last round was the first time I'd been anything but a plain townie and it was something like my fifth or sixth game.
Oh, and as you're again stating bluntly to be a townie, I'm again awarding a MP.
Oh I disagree. Last time round you were the cop and the hints were all over your posts like high runes on Battle.net. This time round I don't see any such thing, not even in your initial post.
Have you read today's discussion? You seriously think everyone who's posting has some kind of night time ability?
If the mafia have any nous about them they won't be giving away blaring clues that they're evil. So this seems to boil down to advocating a no-lynch. MP.
I find this list incredulous. Out of 16 people you think at least 14 people have a role? And why are you so sure about the number of mafia? ~20 people playing is around the breakpoint for 3 or 4 mafia to keep it roughly fair iirc.
If this is some kind of defense to back up you claiming a power role then I find it hard to believe.
Probably? As Zhao said, it's not the same setup. Lovers to me seem like masons with an added clause. I know if I was hosting and thinking of including lovers, I wouldn't add in masons as well.
Considering we need to lynch mafia to win the game, lets use some simple maths:
To summarise, lynching someone today gets us closer to our goal of lynching all mafia than choosing not to lynch someone. Maths fail = MP.
Don't worry. Any MP's awarded are purely arbitrary and based on my opinion only.
Under this reasoning the optimal strategy is to always wait until the following day to further increase the chance of hitting a mafia member. This chance increases until the probability of hitting a mafia member reaches 1, where it stays until the end of the game.
But what does that mean? It means that every player is mafia and the mafia actually won some time ago. (Actually, the mafia win when the probability becomes 50%) You would have us wait and waste our time rather than take a more risky chance that could actually win the game for the town. MP.
The current leaderboard:
*I'm aware of the fact that this sentence is itself irrelevant and in the main body of this post.**
**Also this footnote, and any others.
Brace yourselves, brew a pot of tea, assume crash positions, stroke a nearby cat with a crazed smile on your face... generally do whatever you'd do in a state of emergency. Back home now and there's enough posts now for the next monster.
As to the suspicious posts I was unsure about last night, I decided to give them both points. Something set alarm bells ringing in my head, and I can still kind of see why. And though we had a power cut here last night, I had reset my clock beforehand. Table will be at the bottom of this post.
Actually, looking at that idea again I think that if it's true then the roleblocker is on the (an?) opposing side to the mafia. I've pretty much discounted it as a workable idea anyway, I don't think the theory holds up well enough when it's given more serious attention devoted to it.
A random vote for me citing "The voices" and your gut and heart? You've always seemed to be irked at what I say/do - get over it. Why not show you've got the guts to say what you think of everyone else's posting?
This post doesn't sit right with me at all. The first part of it sounds like you're trying to establish some control over how the cop acts. And I can't think of any player who would have more benefit to that than a mafioso trying ward the cop off him and his buddies.
The second part of the post is odd as well. No reason to go poking anyone? There's a dead Thyiad been found this morning! Also possibly waiting to bandwagon with a random vote even though the anti-town implications of that are known.
1 MP for the odd first half of the post, 1 MP for the voting strategy.
Thought I wouldn't wait until they were requested this time round.
Good point. To be completely honest, when I read through the thread again this evening I realised then that my theory about that had several flaws. I'm happy to wait until he's released to tell us his own story about what happened. Or stories. Or stories + role claim.
Oh definitely. I succeeded King Aman when he abdicated and blew up Mr. Zhao. One of my early decisions was to appoint Ray as governor so that I didn't have to deal with all the paperwork and could spend my days playing squash and consuming fine beers. Rest assured that I am just as distressed as everyone else by the presence of such vile evil-doers in this town and have arrived to do my bit for my people.
I'm in favour of a lynching every single day. I'm not in favour of a senseless vote, 'lynching for the sake of lynching' a you put it. I think there's a distinction to be made here. Yes there's a much greater chance of hitting a townie than a mafia at this point in the game. But there's also a much greater chance of hitting a mafia compared to not lynching anyone. (0) The other thing to consider is that it's not just the identity of the lynchee that we learn. If someone is going to be lynched then people have to vote for them, and often a lot can be learned from looking at how people vote. Unfortunately this message is often just understood as "We need to lynch every single day", which mostly works well enough. The danger is that, as has happened today, it's very easy to simplify that further to "Day 1 = random lynch is ok". Which is not the original intent.
This was a good post though until the last paragraph. For someone whose game I have yet to see played, that's a good vibe.
Read my post please. I wasn't saying that Soylentred made irrelevant posts, I was pointing out that she was drawing more information from what had happened than was actually able to be worked out rationally. That's not irrelevant, it's a logical error. Irrelevance looks like this:
SiTro said:
I am a pirate though, bandana to boot.* It was actually Zhao who made comments similar to what you describe, though even he described it as filler material. MP gained for possibly deliberate (?) misquote.
Your lack of length is disturbing. Seriously, I'm not "chasing my tail" with all this, at least that's not the intention. I'm just thinking about what I read and posting what I think about how other people are playing. If you have a problem with that then say so and maybe I should focus on specific people at a time. If my posts happen to be longer than most other people's, so be it.
I'd argue that nk's, and by extension the presence of a mafia/anti-town faction are the worst things for the town. But you're right, a non-poster is often a sign of an inexperienced mafia.
Yep folks, a bandwagon! Of, er, three votes with a further seven required to seal in the lynch. These are dire times indeed.
Or what? You're a Village Idiot and would win if that happened? I don't think you'd have reacted in this way if that was the case. For now, To Be Continued...
I wasn't exactly being serious. Read back over some of the more recent games. You might notice I'm normally a little bit of a joker regarding the first poster. Your alleged reaction to this is interesting though, a little too defensive.
Alleged? Yeah. You didn't exactly back off after my first post. In fact you carried on posting in the same style until round about the time of my third post (a few hours later) then there's a gap until you posted again earlier. Which could be explained by sleeping for a few hours in between. I don't think you really back off that much at all.
You were the cop last time. It kind of helps when it comes to knowing for sure a given player's mafiacity.
I explained earlier that I find this kind of statement unsettling. +1 MP.
This is good logic. Trust no one implicitly. Decide for yourselves, especially when reading posts like this. Sure, these 'monster' '2000 word essays' are still useful, but you have to consider always whether you think the conclusions of the author are justified. And if you disagree, does that make you suspicious of anything about how they are playing. I wouldn't normally post something like this, but in recent games I think the town's been too keen to follow other people's thought blindly. Aman used to complain of this after the early-mid SPF games. I think that might be why he's a pathological role-claimer now.
I'm trying my best here.
That's the beauty of probability. If there's a positive chance that something can happen, then it can. Since the assignment of roles is (hopefully - Ray? Liq? Aman?) independent, then you being on the same side each game is a possibility. In fact, me being a doctor last round was the first time I'd been anything but a plain townie and it was something like my fifth or sixth game.
Oh, and as you're again stating bluntly to be a townie, I'm again awarding a MP.
Oh I disagree. Last time round you were the cop and the hints were all over your posts like high runes on Battle.net. This time round I don't see any such thing, not even in your initial post.
Have you read today's discussion? You seriously think everyone who's posting has some kind of night time ability?
If the mafia have any nous about them they won't be giving away blaring clues that they're evil. So this seems to boil down to advocating a no-lynch. MP.
I find this list incredulous. Out of 16 people you think at least 14 people have a role? And why are you so sure about the number of mafia? ~20 people playing is around the breakpoint for 3 or 4 mafia to keep it roughly fair iirc.
If this is some kind of defense to back up you claiming a power role then I find it hard to believe.
Probably? As Zhao said, it's not the same setup. Lovers to me seem like masons with an added clause. I know if I was hosting and thinking of including lovers, I wouldn't add in masons as well.
Considering we need to lynch mafia to win the game, lets use some simple maths:
Code:
We don't know how many mafia there are, so let X be the number of mafia. We know
X > 0 due to the nk last night and the fact we are still playing.
Chance to lynch a mafia if we decide to lynch = X / 16
Chance to lynch a mafia if we decide not to lynch = 0
X > 0 so X / 16 > 0, so we have a higher chance of lynching a mafia if we choose
to lynch someone today.To summarise, lynching someone today gets us closer to our goal of lynching all mafia than choosing not to lynch someone. Maths fail = MP.
Don't worry. Any MP's awarded are purely arbitrary and based on my opinion only.
Simple math as in the chance to hit a mafia member with a seemingly random lynch grows larger every day when the crowd thins. Whether that's beneficial to the town or not is unique to each game, and impossible to tell until the game is over
Under this reasoning the optimal strategy is to always wait until the following day to further increase the chance of hitting a mafia member. This chance increases until the probability of hitting a mafia member reaches 1, where it stays until the end of the game.
But what does that mean? It means that every player is mafia and the mafia actually won some time ago. (Actually, the mafia win when the probability becomes 50%) You would have us wait and waste our time rather than take a more risky chance that could actually win the game for the town. MP.
The current leaderboard:
Code:
+------------+-------------+
|Player | Mafia Points|
+------------+-------------+
| Ankeli | 4 |
| Soylentred | 3 |
| Hey | 2 |
|ogogo on ice| 1 |
| MassiveSin | 1 |
+------------+-------------+*I'm aware of the fact that this sentence is itself irrelevant and in the main body of this post.**
**Also this footnote, and any others.
