OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

Sorry I haven't been posting more, I tend to be analytical, and try to wait to get as much data as possible before deciding on things.
I've been reading this thread every chance I get, Perhaps I should be sharing my thoughts more?

It is likely that we will kill a townie by lynching (19/22)
We might hit the Cop and thereby lose a valuable resource (1/22)
We might hit the Doctor and thereby lose a resourse that is unlikely to help us since they have to guess the person that's being hit correctly (1/22)
We might hit the Idiot and thereby lose (1/22)

If we don't lynch then the only hope we have is that the cop gets lucky and finds mafia (3/22)
If we don't lynch then the mafia will sooner or later get organised and pick us off one by one, and thereby we lose.

For every non-idiot removed, our odds of hitting the idiot increase.
For us to win the mafia has to kill the idiot.
For mafia to win they need to kill the idiot.

Now that I think a little deeper, my numbers are not really accurate, since noone would vote for themselves for lynching
Townies have a 3/21 chance of guessing a mafia (it won't be themself)
Masons have a 3/20 chance of guessing a mafia (it won't be themself or their fellow brother)
The cop has the same odds as a townie if they were inactive last night
The cop has the same odds as a Mason if they found a townie last night since they now know a townie as well as themself.
Unless... they were lucky and found a mafia last night then they are 100% on one of the mafia and 2/20 on the other two.


I believe its in the mafia's interest for us to lynch a townie, but failing that... they will want us to not lynch one of them, therefore they would attempt to dilute the voting to keep us from lynching one of their own.

Despite the odds being in favor of us lynching a townie, I think we should lynch.

I think that at least one of the late comers has a role (mafia x3, witness, doc, cop, idiot, vigilante) therefore if we lynch one of them our odds go up to 3/8.

Vote: Moar

Although honestly, i'm suspicious of Jaedhann as well
 
Work got extended by a couple of beers and a pizza, so just got home. :smiley:

LORD NIKON said:
Vote No one

Why? Well, we technically skip day one plus night one this way, except that the cop gets a headstart on the investigation. We're not actually wasting anything. If anyone is alive next night, the mafia have their best opportunity to kill the village idiot, provided he's acting suspiciously enough and they have their heads on their shoulders. Catch my drift? ;)
Click to expand...

I don't buy this argumentation. It would be huge if we take out a mafia right now. There is the risk with the Village Idiot, yes, but I think it's worth taking it.

Goltar looks quite suspicious to me as well. Did he just make a mistake or was it a real slip?

And what's with Drixx first advocating not to lynch and now voting for someone out of the blue. This sounds the most suspicious to me.

Vote Drixx



 
Just want to point out that you forgot the witness as a possible lynch-victim. If he/she goes up the tree we lose a very valuable mafia death.

DISCLAIMER: I'm still in favor of lynching though.
 
Sir Lister of Smeg said:
On another note, Goltar, you said you've got some ideas about Water_Moon's role, care to share? Now she said she'd seen the doctor out and about, so that could mean she's the cop and investigated the person who is the doctor, or it's just roleplaying in response to Skoolbus mentioning that the doctor did send a pm.
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Dead in black. There were enough people out all night yelling things that it wasn't too hard to over hear that one of the folks out and about was the Dr. I am a firm beliver in RPing fully if one is attempting to do so at all. That is after all the pupose, isn't it?

But I'm doubting that this is the poit of this particualr game, so I'll lose the role readily. This reminds me more of the logic games "If you're guilty, play innocent unless you're smart. If you're smart then play guilty, unless they know you're smart, in which case play innocent. Unless you or they are really smart or really stupid, and you know that they're likly to under or over estimate you. In which case, flip a coin." rather than the mafia game we used play in RL (which was called Murder).

And were I the village idiot or mafia I would be espousing the PoV of let's not kill everyone off unless I thought that I was smart, then I would be. Unless I thought that the majority of you were all smart, in which case I would flip a coin.

Now. If I were NOT the VI, but every one was led to belive I was, then the only who would know otherwise would be the VI. So any one calling for my death would be in fact, the Village Idiot (as they would know I was a safe target.)

The same would be true of the mafia, they would KNOW I wasn't one of them and they would be safe in calling for my death, trusting the townsfolk to do their dirty work.


I have a d100. why don't we assign every one a set of numbers and lynch whoever's number comes up? It would make about as much sense as those who call for a lynch.

ps. Skoolbus, you need to read more carfully, I voted a no lynch about 5 pages back.



 
Right, just to get back here in time o_O

Don't worry, everything (everyone) is fine and I'm back again with daily access to the intarweb. My posting may be a bit slowed though since I have to travel a bit back and forth for a few days. So instead of spamming it up on day 1 and dying in night 2 I will spam half the time and maybe make it to night 3 :grin:

I haven't read the thread, yet, however I skimmed trough it and noted skool's post on the page before this one. So..

vote noone

I can probably draw up my sheet and have a nice vote (if needed) in an hour or so :smiley: this was just to keep y'all from waiting.
 
*sigh*

Unvote Sir Lister, Vote RevenantsKnight

I have a bad feeling about this, but we really need to get some lynching done. I've come to believe RevenatsKnight is either the village idiot or a mobster trying to imitate the village idiot.
 
water_moon said:
Dead in black. There were enough people out all night yelling things that it wasn't too hard to over hear that one of the folks out and about was the Dr. I am a firm beliver in RPing fully if one is attempting to do so at all. That is after all the pupose, isn't it?
Click to expand...

The live game is much more spontaneous and inspirational for RPing.


 
Brak said:
Well this isn't going anywhere. I'm voting for skunkbelly just to make him talk.
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Geez, I've already done plenty of talkin'. But... nice weather we're having, eh? :cool:

I see us headed for gridlock, but there's still a lot of time left. We'll see. But at this point, I remain suspicious of anyone giving a "no one" vote. In real life, of course, that's the way to go... but in this game, it's clearly not in the town's best interest.



 
Jaago said:
*sigh*

Unvote Sir Lister, Vote RevenantsKnight

I have a bad feeling about this, but we really need to get some lynching done. I've come to believe RevenatsKnight is either the village idiot or a mobster trying to imitate the village idiot.
Click to expand...


Ummm, you say that RevenantsKnight is either the village idiot or mafia so you vote for him? Doesn't that seem a bit....odd. If he's the idiot, the mob will kill him tonight since he's behaving most like the village idiot. If he's mafia, he'll live through the night and you lynch him tommorow not today.

unvote skunkbelly
vote Jaago


Thanks for the reply skunkbelly:wave: , sorry to put you a mere 11 votes from lynching.



 
Ooh, I keep hearing people mention my name...does that mean I'm popular now?

And what's with all the talk about numbers? I didn't realize everyone living here was into probability and all that. Silly mathematicians, what're you doing in this village? The university's back over the hill; just go down that road, make a left at the mental asylum, then make another left and it's a straight drive for about an hour.
 
Right, I've had time to draw up my paper file case. This time I'm not only looking at the roles (which sadly so far is pretty empty), suspicious behaivior or who defends / votes along with who, I'll also look at post count and weird remarks. Yeah turfing is a pain in the bum..
So far:
Weird remarks - not much, rash stating 100% certainty that muzz isn't doc, some people having a go at eachother but nothing significantly. Rash is sttracting attention by posting a lot (like.. 1/3 of the posts o_O ), but he seems genuine. Gave out the idea he isn't cop, asked to not be saved by the doc which all could be miss giving. Dunno, at least he's talkative :smiley: Jae cracked me up with his posts, nothing on him though. If I'd have to point the finger at the village idiot it would be Thy, based solely on the quick acting. It watered down troughout the thread though. No idea yet on the doc, vigilante, crooked cop or mafia. There are some people who seem to make a few quick remarks, but I haven't spotted something good yet.
Maybe that's for the best seeing as how I attacked Brak last game, who turned out to be a villager with pretty decent reasoning :hide:
Who seem villager: Rash, Goltar, Nikon.. something like that.. maybe about their posting style.

Anyway, out of the postcount I made up that at least everyone posted, and the people who are under 5 posts are: Thy(4), Cyg(4), Touch(4), W_M(3), Xduck(3), CDRT(2), Skunk(4), Sitro(3), Gohabs(3), Jae(3), Moar(4), Drixx(4), Sint (1). In order of posting time too. Which so far makes the ''mafia will out of harms way''-theory a bit off. CDRT and me are the least, he at least posted something in-depth and I just got back. I'll keep the tap up though, noting every day.

Problem:
I agree with the lynching, as in: I think not lynching someone is wasting an oppertunity to get a mafia down. We got lucky I guess that the mob didn't kill someone at night (strategy? don't think so..), I think we should'nt return the favor. However I'm not sure who to vote for.
I will vote, based on a single reply. Sadly, Brak, you're the victim again... :rolleyes:
brak said:
Well this isn't going anywhere. I'm voting for skunkbelly just to make him talk.
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Which pretty much was just wrong as he had posted at least 3-4 times if I haven't missed one.

Unvote: noone. Vote: Brak
 
Actually no all votes aren't created equal. A first vote on a day that takes 12 to lynch made clearly in jest (it's pretty obvious noone is getting lynched today) is not the same as a deciding 12th vote on that same day that gets someone lynched. If you didn't notice from last game I like accusing people to see their reaction.

And I never said skunkbelly isn't posting enough, I just said I wanted to see if he'd reply.

I do agree with you someone needs a lynching. I just disagree a bit on the target.
 
Brak said:
Ummm, you say that RevenantsKnight is either the village idiot or mafia so you vote for him? Doesn't that seem a bit....odd. If he's the idiot, the mob will kill him tonight since he's behaving most like the village idiot. If he's mafia, he'll live through the night and you lynch him tommorow not today.

unvote skunkbelly
vote Jaago


Thanks for the reply skunkbelly:wave: , sorry to put you a mere 11 votes from lynching.
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Well, since Jaago is still in my sight and I'd rather have a lynching today, I'll change my vote back.

Unvote: muzzz
Vote: Jaago


 
Too bad I can't post pictures Rash, or this one would be suiting... I know what you mean though. However a total random lynching doesn't do it for me. I mean, lynching is IMO the key, but it has to be targetted with reason and I didn't share your guys view that strongly.

God, I'm catching up in posts.. Luckily, I'm going to bed. I'll be back in 7-13 hours. Hopefully it'll be day then so we can make a difference.
 
I believe we should vote someone out but simply because it's in the townies favor to do so but I'm at a complete loss as to who I should vote for. I could either vote for a random person and have my vote be pointless or I could be a sheep and follow the lead. Geh. I'll be a sheep

Vote: Jaago
 
RevenantsKnight said:
Ooh, I keep hearing people mention my name...does that mean I'm popular now?

And what's with all the talk about numbers? I didn't realize everyone living here was into probability and all that. Silly mathematicians, what're you doing in this village? The university's back over the hill; just go down that road, make a left at the mental asylum, then make another left and it's a straight drive for about an hour.
Click to expand...


Very clear post trying to act like the villiage idiot. Except the villiage idiot wouldn't be quite so obvious about it. This seems to be a cover post. Do with it what you will fellow townsfolk.



 
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