Okay, I've been reading day 1 and applying some hindsight.
Rashiminos: This guy is a blind fool who doesn't read reason, else he wouldn't have missed what Drixx was trying to tell him. The mafia wanted us to believe they were inactive. It seems like a town power role screwed up the first night and didn't do anything, but maybe s/he didn't think s/he needed to do anything.
So let's present a list of suspicion through day 1, from most likely to be mafia to most like to be mafia. Then I'll summarize posts relating to each case besides mine and goltar's case, since I can't vote for him or myself today.
Code:
Jaago Mafia
GoHabsGo ^
Sir Lister of Smeg |
muzzz |
water_moon |
skunkbelly |
goltar25 |
Rashiminos Townie
Jaago: Let's look at posts
76,
85,
121,
160, and
227. He made the first post after skoolbus's day message, and he's already trying to distance himself from the mafia's play by calling it insane and implying he wouldn't make that mistake. Too over-the-top. He refers to lynching as a merry and festive activity, which doesn't seem like a good attitude when the person being lynched is more like to be town than mafia, and the person could be the VI. Happiness over lynching is a mafia trait. He finds first-timers unlikely to be mafia, when a)first-timers might have been inactive, and b)there were plenty of first-timers. It seems to me he's trying to distance himself (first-timer) from the mafia. Post 160 is really off the wall. He refers to several players as "obvious townies," which I don't think is accidental word choice. Even he gets called on it a later day, he doesn't need to worry about it if he is mafia since he would already know townies he could pick out. Post 227 is a convenient vote-change using the obviously fraudulent VI/mafia theory (RK was mafia killed when people wouldn't be sold on it).
To be fair, post
172 makes a couple of good observations. The town should be able to make better-than-random lynch decisions, and the town only wins by lynching.
GoHabsGo: Posts
106,
127, and
155 include most of the posting done by him. He distances himself from "illogical" mafia play and then becomes overly optimistic about the town's ability to corner the mafia. This distancing seems to have the normal and not overly enthusiastic quality. He fully discredits the possibility that the mafia purposefully did not kill anyone on night one. He then votes no-lynch without a reason, even though he suggested we make a list of inactives and vote one out, that's just damn fishy.
Sir Lister of Smeg: Posts
120 and
193 are suspicious, but upon re-read posts
89,
128,
212, and
252 are very pro-town. Post 120 indulges in a little too much circular argument, and just doesn't go anywhere. He makes a false argument in 193 between posting early on a day and whether that signals innocence (the contents of the first post need to be examined, especially if the mafia gets congratulated or some tries to separate himself or herself from a "bad" mafia decision). He also plays both sides of lynch/no-lynch. In post 89 he makes a good case for the mafia to nightkill the idiot, which saves the town a more important role. With a little care, the idiot is like a regular townie in the voting process and a nightkill that is almost gladly given. It's a shame our no-lynches gave the mafia reason to believe the idiot wouldn't be lynched for awhile. In post 128 he makes the effort to examine all the possibilities for muzzz, which him and others failed to do in the later biased VI/mafia shell game. He points out than people who are not cop/mafia/idiot have no good reason to impersonate the cop. He makes a comment about the justification of inactivity, but seems to overlook those overstressing the inactive mafia angle.
muzzz: After re-reading day 1, he seems a lot more townie than he did before, with only post
124 to mar his name. It's not good to congratulate the mafia on their subterfuge: "it does seem to be working.."
Posts like
196,
205,
209,
254, and
258 were quite impressive.
The mafia are trying to blend in, while the idiot is trying to look extremely suspicious without being obvious about it. (Hmm, was one of our lynches really bad, and did the mafia goof in not killing that lynch, only skoolbus can tell! [and the happy idiot]). Avoid circle reasoning, gotcha! Take a player's playstyle into account, roger that. Competent mafia tries to get extra work done with lynches, yes... Don't readily dismiss unconventional strategies... He may fumble the words a bit, but he's running the right plays for the town.
water_moon: Lack of any important post means she was off the radar on day 1, then and now. Hoping her lurking isn't part of her roleplay.
skunkbelly: With posts like
97,
195, and
229, I'm just not seeing anything suspcious. I hope that it continues into the day 2 read. Effectively discusses both arguments (lynch and no-lynch), then goes on to explain why lynching is better.
Disclaimer: These results are from day 1, more reading will be done to see how my hind-sight suspicions will solidiy or change.
