OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

Why did jrlafrance, now confirmed to be a townie, get killed in the teddybear factory?

jrlafrance said:
Please expand upon your "theories" for those of us that are not as astute. How could you possibly have an idea on who the Vigilante is? That character is a townie with a special ability, however the person with that ability is never made known to anyone. Please explain how you have an "idea" regarding this character. The role of the Witness is very similar, except that we see who dies the next day.

The Masons can only bounce ideas between themselves at night. The only way to even have an "idea" of who they may be is if they say thing similarly, or start agreeing with each other in the thread.
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jrlafrance said:
If this is in response to my, please be assured that I am no harm to the town.

@ Rashiminos: I disagree with your logic regarding discussion. As townies we have very little information upon which to make decisions, particularly this early in the game. Even by discussing these things in the open, we don't know if we're right or wrong unless someone has made an obvious slip up. If we're not discussing these things during the day, then what are we to talk about? The weather? I'm not that kind of a chatty person.

To this point, I think there have only been 4-5 people who are even discussing who they thing people are. We need much more insight than that to try to make educated guesses as to who the Mafia are, because they are smart, and have and advantage on us. I know that I hate the Mafia for killing one of ours, and know with certainty that it'll keep happening unless the Cop gets lucky, or the Vigiliante scores a hit on them. There is also the witness also.
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Why would a townie jrlafrance ask about the other town roles? Two possibilities come to mind.

Either he was the doctor, and looking for roles to protect, or he was the vigilante, and looking to narrow down his kill list. Asking about such things probably attracted the notice of the mafia. We might have just lost another special town role ($#%^).


 
Rash agree with your logic above. Rule number 1 in finding out who has a townie role is they are likely the person asking/speculating about them. That's a good reason not to talk about them.

Don't have time to comment on the monsters right now, but I must say in no-reveal mafia format the non-active players are way more likely to be mafia than the active posters.
 
Okay I'll admit, I have been playing some GW in between.. hence the time between posts.
Anyway, I'd like to draw more attention to Touch. I said I voted for him last time based on low posting and that I would look into him a little better, but what I found didn't change anything.. it made it a bit worse.
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His postings- Day 1
Post 81: opening post, made a joke, nothing on it.
(didn't contribute anything)

Post 107: Litterally: ''It seems everyone is over thinking and trying to make something out of nothing. It's rather entertaining.'' Which at the time seemed not that interesting. But keep it in mind.
(didn't contribute anything)

Post 147: Discussed people's away time.
(didn't contribute anything)

Post 210: Insinuated indirectly that Rash could be mafia after quoting a bit.
(contributed that Rash could be mafia, but only if Rash didn't die that night.. so effectively nothing)

Post 239: Literally: ''I believe we should vote someone out but simply because it's in the townies favor to do so but I'm at a complete loss as to who I should vote for. I could either vote for a random person and have my vote be pointless or I could be a sheep and follow the lead. Geh. I'll be a sheep Vote: Jaago.''
Votes out of the blue, didn't reason nor contribute.

That was it for day 1. Didn't contribute anything, few posts, voting out of the blue, bandwagonning and no reason behind it all.
---

Day 2.

Post 263: Litterally: ''Drixx is definitely an odd choice to be murdered. I don't want to say why because it would benefit the mafia but still. Out of all the potential murder options, it was probably unwise to murder him over someone else.''
What? You know something but won't say it? Any reasoning? Nope.

Post 348: Says he thought he would've had more time, doesn't want to let his vote go to waste and votes Rev. Reasoning: ''From the way he posts, he's either Mafia or the Village Idiot and I believe him to be the prior.'' Which pretty much doesn't hold an argument.

That was it for day 2.
---

6 posts in total. That pretty much means that he must've made his posts worth while. However there is nothing in there that contributes to the game in any way. His voting for both day 1 and 2 have been bandwagonning and with no argument. It is possible that he really didn't have that much time, however in that case he knew he should've made his posts more worthwhile, indepth or at least anything else then just voting and leaving.

My vote stays put.
 
Sint pretty accurately summed up ToI's lack of participation, which doesn't make ToI a mafia, but it doesn't help the town. Also note that ToI joined in on the VI/mafia shell game that seems to be going on.

Sir Lister of Mafia is still the more important vote, if ToI is mafia, he's going to have to step up his game when his master leaves.
 
Vote Tally
Sir Lister of Smeg (1)
Moar (1)
Thyiad (1)
Touch (1)
Haven't voted yet (15)

MAKE SURE YOU PUT YOUR VOTE: PERSON ALL BY ITSELF ON ITS OWN LINE WHERE IT IS AS OBVIOUS AS POSSIBLE!!! (also unvotes just as conspicuous)

Cattleya said:
I'm getting complaints about some of these comments getting a bit personal. Please try to keep things in line with the game and don't attack other forum members.
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I find this odd, I didn't see any comments like this, but if you feel you are being personally attacked, let me know.



 
Sint Nikolaas: I can see the logic behind arguing for TouchOfInsanity as Mafia, but I think the lack of post/contribution charge could be applied to others as well, such as LORD NIKON and Thyiad, just to name a few possibilities (and, incidentally, the two of the relatively quiet players who seem the most suspicious to me, based on LORD NIKON's early vote for no lynching in 194 and Thyiad's initial vote on Rashiminos in 408, which sure looked like a charge that was going nowhere that night with me and Moar both holding higher vote totals.) What sets TouchOfInsanity apart from these players, in your opinion? Is it just that his seem more suspicious than possible indicators from others?

Rashiminos: I'll agree that some of Sir Lister of Smeg's proposals aren't things I'd endorse, but I don't see how a lot of that speaks to his role as opposed to just straight up mistakes in judgment. Why make the proposal to the Mafia if he is Mafia, for instance? Fishing for reactions, his stated reason, isn't as useful when you don't need to know roles at all to win. And as a side note, I know you seem very into this game, but could you ease off the judgmental tone, please? It's not helping your case over here.

I'm going to keep my vote back for now and would like to hear from more players, but right now, TouchOfInsanity, LORD NIKON and Thyiad are all people I think could seriously benefit from explaining their situations, assuming they're townsfolk. If not, well...
 
RevenantsKnight said:
Rashiminos: I'll agree that some of Sir Lister of Smeg's proposals aren't things I'd endorse, but I don't see how a lot of that speaks to his role as opposed to just straight up mistakes in judgment. Why make the proposal to the Mafia if he is Mafia, for instance? Fishing for reactions, his stated reason, isn't as useful when you don't need to know roles at all to win. And as a side note, I know you seem very into this game, but could you ease off the judgmental tone, please? It's not helping your case over here.
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Why wouldn't he make the appearance of helping the town hunt mafia when he's fishing for reactions (from whom and why), especially when he knows no mafia are dumb enough to step out over the VI. I'm trying to find mafia, not win the town's "friendly lyncher" award. If that's not helping my case, so be it.


 
Greetings again

Good grief, I spent the past hour reading up on posts , and I thought I had been doing a pretty good job keeping up.

Why was I imprisoned? great question, seemed random to me, I really don't think the mafia had a good reason to hold me.

To be honest just about everyone is suspicious, I feel like I don't have enough data to go on... but this is how the game works so...

Several people are suspicious to me, namely Moar, Thyiad, and RK.
Just because RK came out of character doesnt mean he's not mafia. Although it was rather entertaining reading his posts.

However...

Sint must be mafia...
Game 1 Townie, killed second day
Game 2 Townie, killed second day
Game 3 ???????, still alive... therefore he must be mafia

Might be wrong, but makes sence to me...
no vote yet...

I'll try to post more often than I have, work has been wonky for a week now.
 
Edit: The problem with the "why would someone do this if they were XXXXX" line is that it is useless as seen without context. It can be confuddled to the point that almost every single role could do it and it doesn't reveal much. In short, your argument and mine can both be valid, providing a meaningless result.
 
Rashiminos said:
Why wouldn't he make the appearance of helping the town hunt mafia when he's fishing for reactions (from whom and why), especially when he knows no mafia are dumb enough to step out over the VI.
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Well, I'm assuming that Sir Lister of Smeg is smart enough to realize that any proposal will draw attention, and if he were Mafia, he should well know that the proposal would probably come under fire for its practicality (after all, I doubt he'd take the deal as a Mafia member, or he could have just carried it out. Why bring it up at all when he could just push it into motion, in that case?) Given that, the net change that I see is that he might gather some suspicion...which is a terrible move for a Mafia member. Since he's not in character like I was, I don't see any reason to assume he isn't calculating the impact of his moves and playing by that.

Now, assuming he is not Mafia, his actions seem much more reasonable. Other than fishing for reactions, I see it as a kind of weak attempt at getting a chance at predicting the Mafia's next hit, which could be blocked by the doctor.

Rashiminos said:
Edit: The problem with the "why would someone do this if they were XXXXX" line is that it is useless as seen without context.
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Then I encourage people to go read up on this particular context and then read my and your positions before formulating their own opinions.



 
Wow, just got through the mountain of posts made today.

jrlafrance's death is not entirely surprising. His posts were well-reasoned, and that made him a good target. I will go through his posts later to see if I can glean anything from them, there's a decent chance that he was on the right track.

I've never been one for letting the dead bury their dead. I gunned for Jaedhann yesterday, and want to reflect on where things stand today. Was Jaedhann mafia? Depends on how much credence you give to water_moon's comment:

which reminds me *checks for a ring in the ashes from yesrterday's lynch*
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Ouch. Immediate questions:
- Is w_m claiming that -- as Rash thinks -- Jaedhann was a mason (implying she's the other) or simply that stating that she has a suspicion (making no comment at all about her own role)? Definitely the former -- she didn't check Drixx or jrla.
- Is w_m to be believed? I think so. No harm coming out now since her role ceases to be of use. She's also become a little more talkative today, now that there's less incentive to keep a low profile.

Major snafu there. At least it's one more person whose innocence I'm convinced of.

Right at the beginning, I suspected three people of having night roles, and two of them are now dead. The one remaining is Moar, who incidentally cast the decisive vote on Jae yesterday. That doesn't tell us much: she could be mafia and jumped at the chance, or she could be a townie who simply didn't want to pass up a chance to lynch. Hopefully, it will be third time lucky *fingers crossed*

Vote Moar

Still plenty of time to change my decision. I want to look at jrla and jae's posts first and then read through Rash's attack on Lister again. I also want to think about what xduckster (who's playing the subtle VI) and thyiad (who's playing the "obvious" VI) are up to.
 
Man I just lost a long post. I'll try to summarize since I'm short on time but I know this won't be as effective.

First I want to state the ToI's play is almost identical to the last round and he was the cop in that game. I wouldn't make him a suspect.

Second point was that, in my mind most mafia tend to be medium level posters. This is because too few posts looks suspicious while too many posts gets you lynched. Medium level posters from what I can recall are:

Jaago
goltar25
Cygnus
GoHabs
SiTro
Xduckster
RK

THis is in order of suspicion to me. But I don't have any hard evidence for anyone on the list at hand, and I'm short on time right now. Just wanted to get this idea out there to mull around before it slipped away. I'll try to get a more in depth post up next time.
 
Yeah Rev, indeed the same theory can go for others aswell. More people have been slower or less contributing. However I feel that from the people with small post counts I have at least seen something to add to the game or give it a twist. For example Thy, she hasn't posted much nor reasoned much, however she has an aura about her that gives something to think about her role or her voting. Same with nikon whom you mentioned, I didn't look trough his posts, but he has been somewhat active (boths days) and contributed at least some if I recall correctly. Touch just didn't add anything. He just posted not enough to get away with nothing meaningfull. For instance, if Rash would have posted nothing that really contributed you would at least think he did because of his post count, and while Rev didn't post anything that helped us out at start (or so it seemed), he still influenced the game. Touch just isn't. He voted on both days, but both were pretty much blanks. I can't see how you can lie more low then that. It is a tactic that actually hasn't been done before because last game the mafia was ''lying low'' but were posting every day and did steer the crowd in a direction...
You could ofcourse reason that not everyone has something to add, or that it's just a game and we're here to have fun. However I think that if you post something you should at least put some reason behind it. I also explained in the other post why I picked Touch over 3 others... it's just adding the few factors that make him more likely to be mafia.
 
goltar25 said:
Now who would the missing person be? Being a peculiar absence, I doubt it's CDRToast, as his absence is to be expected. The only other logical scenario I can see would be if Jaedhann was a mason and the other mason wasn't present. With only two masons, if we did lynch one, we've effectively defeated the role of mason, as there is nobody left for the other to communicate with, thus making them no more than a standard townie.
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I was not the first to come to this conclusion. Just the most recent.

As for knowing to look for a ring? I was trying to get SB (as the DM) to give more clues (and make USE of what he gave us.) I tend play D&D with twisted DMs, you know, the ones who will do spot and listen checks for the heck of it but will be glad to tell you about the ninja over your head, if you bother to look up. I also worked in a jewelry store where I used to order Masonic rings for people at least once a week, so in a way my brain is wired masons=ring.

My post was an attempt to subtly remind folks of who got killed and speculate on the roll he likly played. Thus if we're safer or not (ie. I don't think he was the crooked detective.)



 
OK here are some of the idea I'm having about some people:

Brak: Playing very much in style. Really hard to place him on any particular roll as this is almost exactly how the first two games were played.
CDRToast: Not so sure about him. In both of the last two games the mafia never protected their own by imprisoning them. This game there are fewer mafia so it's harder for them to lead the voting so it wouldn't hurt them as much to imprison their own and allay some suspicion from them. Or it could just be random...
Moar: Reading what rash said about her I really don't see what was so suspicious. Not sure why people are jumping to have her lynched. Well... aside from the fact that she's a latecomer.
muzzz: Seems to think about what he's posting but that doesn't really help me at all in deciding whos side I think he's on.
Rashiminos: I'm pretty certain that he has a roll, either mafia or VI. Don't wan't to vote for him because at the end of the day I still think it's very likely that he's the VI.
RevenantsKnight: I think he was just having fun before. Probably just a townie.
Sint Nikolaas: Not a huge fan of the post count lists just because I think it brings out the wrong things. It's not in the towns best interest to see how many posts people are making. If anything I think it's just another variable the mafia can use to try to sway people. What's more important is the kind of thing you pointed out about ToI, whether or not the posts people are making are relevent to the game and your list about your opinions on everyone. Not positive but probably townie.
TouchOfInsanity: As Brak said, playing very similar to how he did last game. No real reasons for suspicion.
water_moon: I like the roll playing it makes the game more fun. By "telling" us you're a mason you basically save yourself from lynching. But Jaedhann wasn't playing at all like he had a roll so how can we possibly believe you about this.

Well I was originally planning on writing something on everyone but I really don't have enough time and I seriously need sleep... Hopefully I can finish this tomorrow.

I'm going to

Vote CDRToast

again. I'm not sure if that reasoning was supposed to be a joke or not. That's a very odd reason to suspect someone. I know yesterday I said I thought that it was likely he was randomly chosen, but that post made me rethink that. It just seem more likely that the mafia would do something different this game and maybe detain one of their own.
 
I'll be traveling around a bit the next few days, so my posting may be a little irregular. I won't make any promises like I did last time :undecided:

I've had some more time to think about a few other people. By the way, I like those "random thoughts about everyone"-kinda posts. Helps to see the big picture sometimes I think.

W_m - Good to see she's not saying she's a mason. I would've had trouble buying that. Other than the fact that she sometimes confuses people a bit with her RPing (OT: I like RPing, but it is confusing if most people don't expect it) she seems harmless. I was actually wondering if she was the cop.
Thyiad - Conveniently stays out of the discussion. I'm personally against that sort of attitude, as I don't see how it benefits the town as a whole.
Touch - Hadn't analyzed him to the depth Sint has. Sint's logic seems solid though. No original thoughts here.
CDRToast - Only one of his three posts seemed to contain something I think useful. But he's been away for quite some time. Giving him another day or so before I try to read anything into it.
Moar - Has had some inconsistencies pointed out by other players. But her posts didn't set off major alarms for me at first. Unsure.
Brak & Sint - I'll throw them together. Both have been decent posters with which I haven't found a flaw so far. Two of my likeliest candidates for townies at this point.
Cygnus - Nice post count, although most of them I believe were shorter than average. He's one of the people who seem to be flying below my radar, so to say. His posts don't really catch my attention if I'm catching up in a hurry.
Jaago - The only thing that caught my attention was his eagerness to lynch Moar.
RK - Slowly working his way off my suspect list.
Rash - Pretty much the same as before. There were some inconsistencies in his "monster" (e.g., at one point he talks about me having to send a PM on night 1, later he mentions me having to read one), but I'm willing to chalk those up to overeagerness. I too would have trouble writing that much without making a small mistake :grin:

I still don't see anyone glaringly standing out. At first I thought about voting for CDRToast to give him some incentive to catch up :grin: But that probably wouldn't be fair if my internet access goes screwy again. So no vote yet.
 
muzzz said:
Thyiad - Conveniently stays out of the discussion. I'm personally against that sort of attitude, as I don't see how it benefits the town as a whole.
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I'm terribly sorry if my exceptionally heavy work load is inconveniencing you. :smiley: We don't all have the luxury of sitting at home all day.

If you want my opinion: those who are screaming and shouting and generally posting heavily are most likely to be mafia. Throw enough smoke around and it'll hide the truth. The mis-direction in this thread makes Swindon's Magic Roundabout look like the example of clarity.

Go back and read the number of people pointing in half a dozen different directions. I've been consistant from the start, so why am I going to post six time a page saying the same thing? I changed my vote ONLY to ensure *someone* was lynched. Wasting lynching opportunities the way we have been basically means we might as well just hand the town over to the mafia.

Let's try this again ...

Vote Goltar

As he's high up in the possibles a few posts up, perhaps a few others will actually vote for him this time.



 
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