OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

[LORD NIKON]

The distinction is this: the less lynchings the mafia has to endure to win, the greater chances they have of winning. By giving up a lynch, we take half a lynch away from our total lynch potential for that game. Giving up two lynches is equivalent to only allowing mafia to vote to lynch for a day in addition to the kill they scored the night before. The town's night roles are not guaranteed to turn up useful information (although likely in the cop's case).

P.S. Please re-read my last post, major edit.

Yes, but we have no clues at the moment.

Still, there's 13% chance of hitting a mobster, but how would we choose? Noone would propose themselves for lynching, bar the village idiot. He'd probably try to act somewhat suspicious, however that would also make him a prime target for the mafia as well, since if they don't kill him and we lynch him they can't win the game.

Edit:
For the town to win, it must lynch at least twice (vigilante strikes true), probably three times, and probably 7-8 because we'll screw up and /or the cop dies before pegging all the remaining mafia. We want as many lynch opportunities as we can get..

Yes, but with the extended day limit lynching before letting it pan out a bit it quite stupid as we have no actual information yet.

 

[SiTro]

@Rashiminos: Thanks, I think I see what you meant when you said that now. Still fairly undecided. Good effort on that edit though!

 

[Rashiminos]

Yes, but with the extended day limit lynching before letting it pan out a bit it quite stupid as we have no actual information yet.

We do have information..

The mafia are likely to be less active players since they failed to make a decision in 48 hours. They are also likely to be new players.

The doctor is probably a very active player as s/he pm'd skoolbus first...

And the quintuple post...

If the mafia, the vigilante, and the doctor target the same person in one night, that person still dies, and will still reveal a mafia member. When the vigilante kills someone, it will be from a gun, but you won't necessary be able to tell it apart from the mafia (they can use guns too), so I won't tell you outright that it was a mafia murder or a vigilante kill.

edit: I've gotten a pm from the doctor only...

There are mafia players because I don't think skoolbus is a devious enough host to make a game with no mafia. :shocked:

I was not suggesting a quick lynching, only that the day should end in one. Discuss away.

Edit: I'll also clarify that skoolbus said he might extend, there is no guarantee of that...

 

[xduckster]

Editing your post is not a great idea. many people will miss what you said.

I'm of the opinion is that at this point it is so unlikely for us to know who to vote off were better off not voting for anyone and hope that that cop gets more info.

 

[Rashiminos]

Well I usually don't like to double post.

However, it would be such a waste not to use a chance for a merry lynch-fest, wouldn't it?

@ Thy: Are you misguiding us? Lynching Sint would only break the symmetry; murdering him on the next night on the other hand... :scratch:

A few finger slips and out comes the word "murder" instead of "lynch", hmm...

Also "night" instead of "day"...

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Please read this previous post.
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[GoHabsGo]

I think some of you fellows villagers are seing conspiracies everywhere. I can't see a logical reason for the mafia NOT to murder someone last night. It must be an indication that they are not organised right now.

But following that fact, it would be stupid of us to try and catch one out of the blue ... Especially since the odds are against us. Anyhow, everytime they skip a night, it's an advantage to us. Let's be patient, let everyone live to see another day. Who knows, a couple more mistakes by the mafia and they could be cornered early.

 

[TouchOfInsanity]

It seems everyone is over thinking and trying to make something out of nothing. It's rather entertaining.

 

[Cygnus]

Reading through skoolbus' updates at night, it does look like the mafia were away from the forums those 48 hours. Based on who's been inactive, I have a preliminary list of suspects.

Rashiminos, the odds of winning by pure guesswork are slim. Every person the cop identifies is a better chance for us. I agree that we shouldn't let the mafia pick us off one by one, but so long as they aren't murdering anyone, we can take our time.

That's assuming the cop was awake last night Skoolbus only confirmed that the doctor was active.

And don't forget the village idiot. Every random lynching is a chance to win for the idiot.

 

[Rashiminos]

Reading through skoolbus' updates at night, it does look like the mafia were away from the forums those 48 hours. Based on who's been inactive, I have a preliminary list of suspects.

Rashiminos, the odds of winning by pure guesswork are slim. Every person the cop identifies is a better chance for us. I agree that we shouldn't let the mafia pick us off one by one, but so long as they aren't murdering anyone, we can take our time.

That's assuming the cop was awake last night Skoolbus only confirmed that the doctor was active.

And don't forget the village idiot. Every random lynching is a chance to win for the idiot.

The town usually has to do some guesswork to win, and that starts on the first day, biding our time worsens our situation more than the cop can help.

If the cop wasn't awake last night, we can't count on the cop this game.

You're right, random lynchings work in the idiot's favor, but we're 6 times more likely to hit a night role, not to mention the much higher chance of hitting a townie. It's worth the risk until the doctor knows who the cop is. Also the cop needs to pick someone who won't get murdered... Not that I encourage random lynchings to begin with.

 

[RevenantsKnight]

I say we solve this by Russian roulette.

*whips out an ace of diamonds*

I've got a bullet, so who's got a 22-gun?

 

[Rashiminos]

I don't think a .22 can hold enough bullets, but I'm sure we could use a gun with a larger clip. However, russian roulette is not a good idea.

 

[skoolbus1]

Someone pointed it out, and I forgot to put it in the rules, but

DO NOT EDIT YOUR POSTS!!!!

unless it's punctuation or spelling (or something trivial such as that). Editing them might cause people to miss what you've said. If you have to double post, do so.

 

[goltar25]

Rashiminos, there's a flaw in your reasoning with the login times. Not everyone logs in when they view. I almost never log in unless I have something to say, but I do watch the forums quite a bit. Now logging in is required to view your pm's, so muzzz not seeing his role immediately is a reasonable assumption.

 

[Rashiminos]

Rashiminos, there's a flaw in your reasoning with the login times. Not everyone logs in when they view. I almost never log in unless I have something to say, but I do watch the forums quite a bit. Now logging in is required to view your pm's, so muzzz not seeing his role immediately is a reasonable assumption.

I'm not looking to catch the lurkers, only those who need to read/send pm's for some reason.

 

[Rashiminos]

Rashiminos, there's a flaw in your reasoning with the login times. Not everyone logs in when they view. I almost never log in unless I have something to say, but I do watch the forums quite a bit. Now logging in is required to view your pm's, so muzzz not seeing his role immediately is a reasonable assumption.

There's no flaw in my reasoning about the login times, want to know why?



I made no reasoning about the login times, mainly because the lack of murder made that point moot. Please read my posts more carefully in the future.

 

[Brak]

Bah, I've got to agree this looks very much like a disorganized mafia. Has anyone been away from the forums a lot as of late :scratch: ? I'd mark them up the highest.

Also the village idiot puts a nice twist into the game. The townies have to be careful not to lynch the wrong person, the mafia has to try hard to kill the right person. FOr this reason alone I'm certain the mafia wouldn't waste a chance at hitting the village idiot and thus would not intentional no-kill on the first night (not to mention free cop investigation). Being a townie I have to say I'm not sure about a random lynching with the idiot still wandering about, but at the same time the 13% chance to hit a mafia is mighty sexy.

Biggest suspect right now is anyone who hasn't commented in thread. Biggest suspect of the people that have commented is goltar for suggesting that the mafia may not have killed anyone to avoid killing the village idiot.

Sorry don't have time for a comprehensive post right now (I know everyone is saddened).

And Thyiad, Sint is always murdered on night 2 not lynched on day one, are you trying to have your way?

 

[LORD NIKON]

Biggest suspect of the people that have commented is goltar for suggesting that the mafia may not have killed anyone to avoid killing the village idiot.

That's quite unreasonable, it's probably just a misunderstanding of the game rules.

 

[jrlafrance]

I say we solve this by Russian roulette.

*whips out an ace of diamonds*

I've got a bullet, so who's got a 22-gun?

Said like someone who has nothing to lose...

I'm surprised that the night took to long to pass, maybe some weird lunar eclipse or something like that.

I'll agree that the Village Idiot role does change things a little bit, but I'm not concerned for "accidentally" voting that person out. As long as the Mafia does not win, I don't care if it's the VI or a regular townie.

So far, just from comments posted so far, Thyiad and RevenantsKnight are the only two on mysuspect list. Thyiad for her hurry to lynch someone, and RK for his comment above (for those of you that need explainations).

 

[jrlafrance]

Crud, I was going to edit, but rememberd the rule:

As far as postulating who might be the cop, doctor or Mafia based on when certain people are logged on...I never log out, so does that mean I'm all the above? Aside from that, I feel its cheesy to use that as any indication of who people might be. Figure it out by what people say in this thread.

 

[Sir Lister of Smeg]

Crud, I was going to edit, but rememberd the rule:

As far as postulating who might be the cop, doctor or Mafia based on when certain people are logged on...I never log out, so does that mean I'm all the above? Aside from that, I feel its cheesy to use that as any indication of who people might be. Figure it out by what people say in this thread.

But even if you don't have to log back in, aren't you seen as inactive by the forum software?
This might not be clear, if I don't log out, but am inactive for a sufficiently long time (even writing a post can take long enough for this to happen), I have to log back in again. It's very well possible you can change that time and it could be that you never have to log back in, I think I had that in the past either on this forum or on another. Still, I would have been seen as inactive by the forum-software, and my reactivation (by for example posting again the next morning) would be counted as login-time. But I agree with you that it should not be used as an indication of the roles of people. Isn't it possible to log in without your name showing as being online? It is in other places and I would be surprised if it wouldn't be possible here either.

The only thing that we can gain today is getting some idea of who are mafia and who is the village idiot. Of course a mafioso could act in such a way as to be seen like the village idiot by the town. Luckily we can then easily notice that person: in spite of acting like a village idiot by heaping up suspicion on him-/herself, (s)he is not being murdered by the mafia and is thus likely to be mafia. Of course there are already a few who are acting very suspiciously, so the mafia will have a hard time killing all of them who are not mafiosi (and thus candidates for village idiocy) quickly. Most of them also have been too active in this thread to be part of an inactive mafia. Still, the mafia might be employing more reverse psychology by being active in this post and not at night. Of course it could be on yet another level of paranoia, or many, ad infinitum, but that will make your brain hurt.