OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

[TouchOfInsanity]

Compared to last game, today's first day lack of discussion mind boggling boring.
Perhaps next game we'll find a happy medium.

Anywho, I believe it's a conspiracy. You're all mafia members and you're all out to get me.

 

[Sir Lister of Smeg]

Wakes up.

What was that stuff called again? It really made me sleep for ages, I feel as if I slept at least a week. What it's only the next day? Well maybe this is the ultimate sleeping pill, it makes you sleep for a week in a single night.

What, nothing happened last night? What's so special about that? I can't remember a night that a lot happened. What's that talk about mafia? There hasn't happened anything here in ages, why'd there suddenly be organized crime? Thyiad, are you sure you're alright? You're talking about lynching someone without a crime having happened. Ah, you had a bad trip off that stuff. Care to explain what causes your sudden hatred for Sint? What has this got to do with symmetry?

 

[goltar25]

Hmm, in which case the mafia should have sent a PM to skoolbus indicating that they weren't going to kill anyone during the night. The cop would have found out someone's identity, so we are ahead. So if this is indeed a mafia tactic, I welcome it.

They very well might have done that. If they're sitting around waiting for us to make the first move, they can try to guage who's their biggest threat, rather than just taking out a random person (who could very well be the village idiot). There is a little bit of logic behind waiting, though overall it doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[water_moon]

I agree that we really don't have a lot of call to lynch someone, as no crime was committed. But we know that there's a mafia in town, and we've got to find out who they are and eliminate them.

INNCORRRECT!

In the peaceful Sicilian village of Salem, a dark presence is about to make itself known. For years, the family based crime organization known as the Mafia has been establishing itself in the foundation of the community. Until now, the naive citizens have been unaware of the evil among them.

In theory any lynching would be, well out of charater, we don't KNOW that anyone is out to get our town, so unless we're a little too close to an old Roman ruin and still use thier plumbing we have no reason to lynch anyone.

 

[Jaago]

However, it would be such a waste not to use a chance for a merry lynch-fest, wouldn't it?

@ Thy: Are you misguiding us? Lynching Sint would only break the symmetry; murdering him on the next night on the other hand... :scratch:

 

[xduckster]

Well that depends on the symmetry doesn't it. That's one of the joys of math... You can make it up to fit what you want. Maybe we shouldn't lynch anyone and hope that the cop starts getting lucky.

 

[Cygnus]

@Jaago: Lynching Sint is within our control; murdering Sint is not. BTW, didn't Sint save himself on day 1 in one of the earlier games? There goes your symmetry.

I'm still for not lynching anyone today.

 

[Thyiad1]

We're a town. We're a small town. IE we should lynch someone now and ask questions later.

Murdering Sint would not be symmetry, I do agree. I was quite tired when I typed that. I meant continuity.

And then there's watermoon. She was up in the middle of the night; obviously up to no good.

Two great candidates for lynching there.

 

[Sir Lister of Smeg]

They very well might have done that. If they're sitting around waiting for us to make the first move, they can try to guage who's their biggest threat, rather than just taking out a random person (who could very well be the village idiot). There is a little bit of logic behind waiting, though overall it doesn't make a lot of sense.

But the village idiot only wins if (s)he is lynched, not if (s)he is killed. So if the mafia would have taken out the village idiot as random person they would actually have helped both themselves and the town (although as far as the town is concerned, the village idiot might stay alive to the end). Or they might have taken out their biggest threat wihtout knowing it.

 

[goltar25]

Thyiad, you seem AWFULLY eager to lynch someone. Why would that be? And water_moon wasn't the only one up last night. If we're going on that, Brak, Lister, Nikon, Sint, and Rashiminos are suspicious too. Sounds like you've got a pretty big list of people there. Methinks you're the one up to no good here.

Besides, if the mafia was actually active last night, why didn't someone die? It only takes one to kill someone.

 

[Rashiminos]

Actually, there seems to be an influx of questionable goods and tainted goods on the trading market, I sense a dire presence seeking to ruin our humble town's d2 experiences...

I was on here last night, and this morning, that I will not deny. I was making a list of the comings and goings of other characters, specifically in relation to appearances of skoolbus, in case this thread may have had an update. The list was accurate at around 8am EDT (GMT -4). However, I had work today. I will say the most unusual finding...

muzzz had not seen what his/her role was for over 24 hours after the roles were given out. The list to come later, pending some rejuvenation.

 

[LORD NIKON]

We're a town. We're a small town. IE we should lynch someone now and ask questions later.

Murdering Sint would not be symmetry, I do agree. I was quite tired when I typed that. I meant continuity.

And then there's watermoon. She was up in the middle of the night; obviously up to no good.

Two great candidates for lynching there.

Except that not lynching someone gets us slightly ahead - it nets the cop a free investigation so to speak.

Sadly, it won't be so easy to put blame on anyone today, since all everyone has to do is sit around and play baffled. Exceptions, however, may present themselves - such as someone calling for random lynchings, just because.

 

[Rashiminos]

Actually, not lynching plays into the mafia's hands, as it would give up the (half of a) free chance they gave us. Each time we fail to make a lynching, we give up half a lynching from the total lynchings we can make in the game, barring saves and vigilante kills. Better to take chances and risk killing townies than to not lynch and give mafia total kill control.

That being said, the mafia failing to make a kill the first night can indicate several things...

a) physical distance (time zones) between the mafiosi IRL causing communication problems..

b) inactive players are causing communication problems...

c) newbie player(s) is/are mafioso/mafiosi

I would also like to point out that no one was taken for questioning.

 

[CDRToast]

I can't see it as anything other than a blunder on the Mafia's part, they gain by knocking off us townies.

Honestly no solid clues as to who these mysterious people are... tough call...

Guess and have a high probability of killing a townie?
Or don't guess, and have no chance of killing a mafia?...
hmmm thinking...

 

[Thyiad1]

It's entirely possible the were looking for a new thread.

And I say it's better to lynch someone than give the mafia a free day. And the two I mentioned were the biggest targets. IE made themselves most visible.

 

[Rashiminos]

Except that not lynching someone gets us slightly ahead - it nets the cop a free investigation so to speak.

This is provided that two things don't happen:

A) The cop lives to the next morning... (2 ways to die at night this game)

B) The person the cop investigates could be the murder victim, in which case the information becomes useless...

In case A) further "not lynching" is only detrimental
In case B) the "not lynch" put us behind

Killing a townie sucks, helping the mafia to win is worse.

P.S. I'm getting there, the beer is half done...
P.S.S Anytime I say villager, I mean townie as per the "mafia" version of the game. Hopefully I won't slip and start giving "Werewolves " versions of the roles.

 

[skunkbelly]

Well, there are clearly two schools of thought:

1. The town should lynch someone, because if they don't, that gives the mafia an extra chance (no lynching = no chance of mafia death).

2. The town should NOT lynch someone, because the mafia hasn't struck first. The mafia has bought us time by not killing someone, therefore, we don't need to risk accidentally killing a townsperson.

Both arguments have their merits.

I suppose this post isn't really saying much, eh? But it was worth spelling out, maybe.

 

[Rashiminos]

Well, there are clearly two schools of thought:

1. The town should lynch someone, because if they don't, that gives the mafia an extra chance (no lynching = no chance of mafia death).

2. The town should NOT lynch someone, because the mafia hasn't struck first. The mafia has bought us time by not killing someone, therefore, we don't need to risk accidentally killing a townsperson.

Both arguments have their merits.

I suppose this post isn't really saying much, eh? But it was worth spelling out, maybe.

Except that argument 2 uses up the bought time wastefully and resets the first night, in effect. Right now it is as if the game had started in the day phase, but the cop knows one person, and that person is most definitely alive.



Alright, time to get down to brass tacks...

 04:20 12/8 RevenantsKnight 05:39 12/8
 12:08 10/8 SiTro           08:20 12/8
 10:13 11/8 Jaedhann        08:23 12/8
04:42 12/8 CDRToast        05:28 12/8
 19:48 11/8 Thyiad          08:14 12/8
21:51 11/8 Rashiminos      08:50 12/8
 17:50 10/8 Neksja          05:44 10/8
 
10:30 09/8 muzzz 17:22 11/8


    xduckster       04:14 12/8
 jrlafrance      04:03 12/8
 TouchOfInsanity 04:56 12/8

Cygnus             02:12 12/8
 Drixx              01:32 12/8
water_moon         01:29 12/8 
 Sir Lister of Smeg 02:33 12/8
Jaago              14:41 11/8
    skunkbelly         16:53 10/8
 Brak               20:08 10/8
 LORD NIKON         13:09 11/8
 Sint Nikolaas      06:55 11/8
goltar25           19:27 11/8
GoHabsGo           23:23 11/8

First, I would like to declare that the server's EDT time is a couple of hours fast of the actual time, and the times on this list are the server times. The server is 1 hour and 46 minutes fast at the time of this message, and probably was something close to that at this list's last edit this morning. This list was based on a last activity time of skoolbus when I checked this morning: 04:58

The list is now ordered into 4 vertical groups and 3 horizontal groups (by indentation).

The first vertical group is composed of people who had been active after 04:58, including myself, with last activity times on the right, and last posts before skoolbus signed off on the left (if they weren't close to the sign off time.

The second v-group is muzzz, for being ignorant of his role for such a long time.

The 3rd v-group is people who were on shortly before skoolbus got off.

The last vertical group is the people who had not been on for while before skoolbus's last activity.

Since no one died, I haven't cared to assess this particular arrangement since I got home from work.

On the the 3 horizontal groups:

No indentation: Has not played a mafia game before on these forums, potential newbies.

1- space indentation: Has played mafia on the forum, but has not been mafia.

4-space indentation: Has been a mafioso in a game on this forum.

The only two people in the 4-space indentation group, xduckster and skunkbelly, are probably not mafia in this game, because if they were, someone would be dead right now, barring a lucky as hell doctor save (not likely on the first night).

1-space: They probably would have murdered, but hey, maybe not...

Newbies: I haven't played a game on this forum, but I have played before. As for the others, I'm not sure. However, unwillingness to come to a decision in a 48-hour period suggests at least one newbie is a mafioso.

By the way, should I have been mafia, I would have wrung my compatriots arms off until a murder decision had been made, not going pass up shots at the cop, the doctor, the vigilante, and the village idiot :grin:

 

[SiTro]

Killing a townie sucks, helping the mafia to win is worse.

I'm struggling to see the distinction here?

I suppose you can excuse lynching a townie somewhat if there was a good chance that the townie in question was mafia. But this can be beaten, look how low the mafia managed to lie in the last game while the town went around hanging themselves.

I think the problem is that in both of the two previous games, the first kill was a source of information inside the game. We don't have that now, hence confusion.

It also comes down to how risk-averse we are as a body. If we choose to lynch, then we have a 3/22 chance of hitting a mafia, since it's essentially a random choice. 13% for those who prefer percentages.

I really don't know where I stand on this, I'm going to carry on thinking for the moment.

 

[Rashiminos]

I'm struggling to see the distinction here?

I suppose you can excuse lynching a townie somewhat if there was a good chance that the townie in question was mafia. But this can be beaten, look how low the mafia managed to lie in the last game while the town went around hanging themselves.

I think the problem is that in both of the two previous games, the first kill was a source of information inside the game. We don't have that now, hence confusion.

It also comes down to how risk-averse we are as a body. If we choose to lynch, then we have a 3/22 chance of hitting a mafia, since it's essentially a random choice. 13% for those who prefer percentages.

I really don't know where I stand on this, I'm going to carry on thinking for the moment.

The distinction is this: the less lynchings the mafia has to endure to win, the greater chances they have of winning. By giving up a lynch, we take half a lynch away from our total lynch potential for that game. Giving up two lynches is equivalent to only allowing mafia to vote to lynch for a day in addition to the kill they scored the night before. The town's night roles are not guaranteed to turn up useful information (although likely in the cop's case).

P.S. Please re-read my last post, major edit.

Edit:
For the town to win, it must lynch at least twice (vigilante strikes true), probably three times, and probably 7-8 because we'll screw up and /or the cop dies before pegging all the remaining mafia. We want as many lynch opportunities as we can get..