OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Here is a complete voting list for days 1 to 6. If goltar turns up clean, then I think we may be able to nut out the final rival mafia from the patterns of voting. I have some observations, which I will post tomorrow if the game continues, as I don't have time to write them out before muzzz posts.

p.s. I hate code tags. I did up this table all nice and pretty and in colour in excel, then had to convert it since we can'tpost attachments in this forum. For the record, bold = rival mafia, bold underline = undercover cops, plain text = proven townie, italics = still under suspicion. I have been conservative with my estimation of whose name has definitely been cleared.

Code: 
[U][B]Voter[/B][/U]          [U][B]Vote[/B][/U]           [B][U]Previous Vote[/U][/B]
        
[I][B] Day 1[/B][/I]        
Liquid    [B]     Lister[/B]       
Merlin         [B]Lister[/B]        
[B][U]Sint[/U][/B]           Merlin        
[I]Serdash[/I]        [B]Lister[/B]        
fried          [B]Lister[/B]         
Jaedhann       [B]Lister[/B]        [I]
Thyiad         Naz[/I]    
Merlin    [I]     Thyiad[/I]    [B]     Lister[/B][U][B]
Sint[/B][/U]    [I]       Naz[/I]            Merlin
Ray    [B]        Lister[/B]    
Nole           [I]Naz[/I]    [I]
Naz[/I]    [B]        Lister[/B]    [U][B]
Sint[/B][/U]    [B]       Lister[/B]         [I]Naz[/I]
Bob    [B]        Lister[/B]    [I]
Pure[/I]          [B] Lister[/B]    [B]
Nac[/B]            [B]Lister[/B]    [I]
maati[/I]          Nole    
w_m            [B]Lister[/B]    [B]
Nac[/B]            [B]               Lister[/B][I]
Jason[/I]          [B]Lister [/B]   [I]
goltar[/I]         [B]Lister[/B]    [B]
Nac[/B]            Liquid    
Nole           Liquid         [I]Naz[/I][I]
Thyiad[/I]         Liquid         [I]Naz[/I][I]
Pure[/I]           Liquid         [B]Lister
[/B][U]
No Vote:[/U]        [U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]        [B]
Magic[/B]        [B]
Lister[/B]        [U][B]
Azador/Sitro[/B][/U]        

[I][B] Day 2[/B][/I]        
Liquid         [B]Nac[/B]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]         [B]Nac[/B]    
Nole    [B]       Nac[/B]    [B]
Nac[/B]            Liquid    [U][B]
Sint[/B][/U]    [I]       Thyiad[/I]    
Jaedhann    [I]   Thyiad[/I]    
Nole        [B]                  Nac[/B][I]
maati          Thyiad  [/I]  [I]
Jason          Thyiad[/I]    
fried          [I]Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Naz            [/I][B]Nac[/B]    
Merlin    [B]     Nac[/B]    
fried        [I]                 Thyiad[/I][I]
Serdash[/I]        [B]Nac [/B]   
Merlin         Jaedhann       [B]Nac[/B][U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]    [B]      Nac[/B]    
Ray    [B]        Nac[/B]    
fried    [B]      Nac[/B]    
Nole    [B]       Nac[/B]    [I]
Naz                           [/I][B]Nac[/B][I]
Thyiad[/I]        [B]                Nac[/B]
fried        [B]                 Nac[/B]
w_m    [B]        Magic[/B]    [I]
Naz[/I]    [B]        Nac[/B]    
fried          [B]Nac [/B]   
Bob            [B]Nac[/B]    [B]
Magic[/B]    [I]      Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]    [B]     Nac[/B]    [I]
Jason[/I]    [B]      Nac[/B]            [I]Thyiad[/I][U][B]
Sint[/B][/U]    [B]       Nac[/B]            [I]Thyiad[/I][I]
goltar[/I]    [B]     Nac[/B]    
        
[I][B] Day 3[/B][/I]        [U][B]
Sint[/B][/U]    [I]       Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]         [U][B]Sint[/B][/U]    [I]
Jason[/I]          Bob    
Nole           Bob    [I]
maati[/I]    [I]      Thyiad [/I]   
w_m    [B]        Magic[/B]    
Ray            Bob    [I]
Jason[/I]          [B]Magic[/B]          Bob[U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]          Bob    [I]
Serdash[/I]        w_m    
fried          Nole    
Merlin    [B]     Magic[/B]    
Jaedhann    [I]   Serdash[/I]    
Ray            Nole           Bob
Nole    [B]       Magic[/B]          Bob
Ray    [B]        Magic[/B]          Nole
Nole    [I]       Thyiad[/I]         [B]Magic[/B][I]
goltar[/I]    [I]     Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Pure[/I]    [B]       Magic[/B]    [U]

No Vote:[/U]        
Bob        [B]
Magic[/B]        

[I][B] Day 4  [/B][/I]      
w_m    [I]        Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]    [I]     Thyiad[/I]    
Jaedhann    [I]   Thyiad[/I]    
Ray            [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [I]
Pure[/I]           [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [I]
Jason[/I]          [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [I]
Jason[/I]                         [U][B]lukin[/B][/U][I]
Jason[/I]          Jaedhann    [B][U]
lukin[/U][/B]          fried    [I]
Pure[/I]           [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    
fried    [I]      Pure[/I]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]        [I]                Thyiad[/I][I]
maati[/I]    [I]      Serdash[/I]    
Merlin         Jaedhann    [I]
Thyiad[/I]         [I]maati[/I]    
Bob            Jaedhann    [I]
Pure[/I]           Jaedhann    
[I]Naz[/I]            Jaedhann    [I]
maati[/I]    [I]      Thyiad[/I]         [I]Serdash[/I][I]
Thyiad[/I]    [I]     Thyiad[/I]         [I]maati[/I]
Bob            [I]maati[/I]          Jaedhann
fried    [I]      Serdash[/I]        [I]Pure[/I]    [I]
goltar[/I]         Jaedhann    [U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]          Jaedhann       fried
w_m    [I]        Naz[/I]    [I]        Thyiad[/I]
[U]
No Vote:[/U]        [I]
Serdash[/I]        

[I][B] Day 5[/B][/I]        [I]
Thyiad[/I]    [I]     maati[/I]    
Merlin         [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]          fried    [U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]          [I]Pure[/I]           fried[U][B]
lukin[/B][/U]          [I]maati[/I]          [I]Pure[/I][I]
Pure[/I]           [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [I]
Pure[/I]                          [U][B]lukin[/B][/U][I]
Jason[/I]    [I]      Serdash[/I]    [I]
maati[/I]          [I]Serdash[/I]    
fried    [I]      Serdash[/I]    [I]
Serdash[/I]    [I]    Pure[/I]    [I]
Jason[/I]          [B][U]lukin[/U][/B]          [I]Serdash[/I][I]
Pure[/I]           [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    
Ray            [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]         [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]          [I]maati[/I][I]
goltar[/I]         [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    
Bob            [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    
fried          [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]          [I]Serdash[/I][I]
Naz[/I]            [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]    [I]
maati[/I]          [U][B]lukin[/B][/U]          [I]Serdash[/I]

 [I][B]Day 6[/B][/I]        
fried          Bob    [I]
maati[/I]          Bob    
Bob            [I]Naz[/I]    [I]
maati[/I]                         Bob[I]
Serdash[/I]    [I]    Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Jason[/I]    [I]      Thyiad[/I]    [I]
Thyiad[/I]         [I]Thyiad[/I]    
Merlin         [I]Thyiad[/I]    
Merlin    [I]     goltar         Thyiad[/I][I]
Jason          goltar         Thyiad[/I][I]
Thyiad         goltar         Thyiad[/I]
fried    [I]      goltar         [/I]Bob[I]
Naz[/I]    [I]        goltar[/I]    [I]
Pure           goltar[/I]    [I]
Jason                         goltar[/I][I]
Thyiad         Pure           goltar[/I][I]
maati          Naz[/I]    
fried    [I]      Naz            goltar[/I][I]
maati          goltar         Naz[/I][I]
Thyiad                        Pure[/I][I]
Thyiad         goltar[/I]    
Bob    [I]        goltar         Naz[/I][I]
goltar         Naz[/I]    
[I]Jason          Naz[/I]
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

For the record, since muzzz hasn't yet posted, I agree Pure's vote for magicboy almost clears him, however muzzz did state that in the event of a tie the first to reach the number of votes (in this case 4) would be lynched, so Magicboy was already gone if no one else voted for Thyiad.

I believe Magic's attack on Thyiad on the previous day puts her pretty much in the clear.

My observations of my wife's reactions, written and otherwise, convinces me she is innocent, and of course I myself am innocent, just not officially cleared by a proven townie (hence why I italicised myself). So ruling out maatiarna,myself, Pure, and Thyiad, leaves me with goltar, Naz, and Serdash. One of these 3 is dirty, and to be honest, I'm not convinced it is goltar, but we'll soon find out. Serdash is kind of in the clear, because I can't see a bad guy going missing the way he did. I would also expect a bad guy vote in the only townie lynch thus far, and Serdash never voted for Jaedhann. So that leaves Naz as my prime suspect if goltar turns up townie.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Further, I believe Naz to have been converted on night 3, based on his voting the first two days, and especially day 2, not being consistent with him being a comrade of Lister and Nac at that time. He unvoted Nac, then jumped straight back on after two others jumped off, at a point where Nac's lynch was far from certain. A very risky manouvere for a comrade, as opposed to slipping a vote in when the lynch is looking certain.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Apologies for the multiple posts. One last thing:

Day 3 Naz didn't vote at all.
Day 4 Naz voted for Jaedhann.
Day 5 Naz jumped on undercover cop lukin right at the end.
Day 6 Naz helped push the goltar barrow.

Thyiad version: goltar = good ==> Naz = bad.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Unvote goltar

Vote Naz
:grin:
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Egads, make up your minds, people. And check the records table - that's what it's for.

I couldn't possibly have been converted night 3. Why? All of the original three rival mafia were dead. So I'd have to have been converted night 2, meaning I helped to lynch NacRuno, the third rival Mafioso.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

...and you're also relying on me being rather incompetant, which I hope is against type for me :grin:
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

*Rechecks*

Ah yeah, Magicboy was still alive day 3. I lost track.

I guess I am incompetant :grin:
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I guess I mean... I tend not to be incompetant with playstyle, but I can be incompetant with minor slips and stuff.

Anyway. Parting words.

Don't clear Thyiad yet, she's fits Liquid's "Odd NCP" antogonist type quite well. Don't necessarily do whatever Jason does, 'cos you'll shortly see he's got it wrong here.

Suggested lynch order: Goltar, then Thyiad.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

To my regret, I won't be able to wrap this up tonight. I expect to have access to my notes again in ~15-18 hours. This day will last until then.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

unvote naz

This is going to be interesting. Right now I don't trust naz or goltar. Or jason much. Or puresummon.

Oh dear.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Alright, since muzzz has given me the go ahead to post now (don't regret it, RL happens, you've been doing a great job), here's some thoughts:

Merlin says: "Goltar bad! Naz still suspicious!"
Jason says: "Naz bad! Goltar okay!"

Everyone else says: "I like to ping pong between the two! Yay!" :badteeth:


And none of it really matters. If the game is still going tomorrow, then whoever didn't die today will die then. They're both suspicious, and both giving as reasonable a defense as they can to stay alive.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I never said goltar was ok, I was assuming he would die a few minutes after I posted that, and I was positioning for tomorrow if he did happen to show townie. So in reality, Merlin says: "goltar bad, but Naz still suspicious!"
Jason says: "not 100% convinced on goltar, he may bad, but if he shows good than look out Naz!"

If by some miracle they both show good, then I guess Serdash better look out. And if he shows good, then I guess my wife has played for me a true sucker, or Thyiad has. And if they're both good as well, then I give up, because that would make me mafia, and would mean muzzz has been talking to me in code (i.e. "cautious townie" really means "rival mafia"), and I'll never play this silly game again!
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Stop being clever and 'positioning', start voting for who you want to lynch :grin:
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

And hell, FWIW - Maartiarna is clean barring extreme wierdness. Thyiad and goltar aren't, and we have a coherent argument to say why they might be baddies. Jason and the rest are neither here nor there.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Lol. ROFLMAOPIMP.

I am not neither here nor there. Jason pointed out voting inconsistencies from Nazdakka, and I did for goltar. Remember people, the voting after day 3 doesn't matter much for finding the last mafia, except when and if the snoop becomes a target. And so far, I have not been.

Why you ask? Well, from day 4 onwards, the last mobster has been flying solo. His or her best bet would be to show a consistent voting pattern, and pretty much blend in. Goltar showed consistency enough, as did thyiad (in her endless barrage against maatiarna).
And on day 1, all that was revealed on Nazdakka was that he was a selfclaimed townie who picked the stay cautious role and said he had not used it yet. In my book, this makes him a less likely greed target then Goltar or thyiad, since their information 'confirms' their claim (I went out drinking, and saw Nacruno active). Whereas Naz could also be one of the town powerroles or an undercover cop establishing a cover identity from the get go.
@JAson, a pretty thorough post analysis. However, I disagree on a few key components:
1) The rule where a tied vote goes to the one who first got that number of votes was not clear to all. I recall at least once 1 person had to recheck this. This might have slipped goltar's mind. Anyways, with 3 non-voters left, he could always hope one other would follow his logic.
2) Thyiad should still be on your suspect list. Day 3 saw no vote on her from Magicboy. She might have been turned in night 3 (the night after she spotted nac out and about). Magicboy could easily vote for her, then turn her the following night.

3) Muzzz already explained drinking knowledge would not be known to a person if (s)he was turned in the same night (s)he was out drinking. If I recalled this correctly, that means Maatiarna is definetely in the clear. If I am wrong, however, she is not, because
she outed herself as a townie who had not used her drinking ability yet on day 2. If she went drinking on night 3, got turned by greed and saw ray out and about...

I'm keeping my vote on goltar. Thyiad and naz should be next on the target list, come tomorrow.
 
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