OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Did you miss my voting for myself?

I'm quite happy for you to lynch me. I like proving people wrong. I'm a townie.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Well, unless the last culprit decides to come out clean, I won't take any 'I'm a townie' claims for granted, but please, feel free to try :P

I thought about trying to coordinate my nighttime snooping with Ray's goon blocking, but it would be too easy for the enemy to lay low that way. So I strongly suggest that each of the townie powerroles makes up his/her own mind about who and what to investigate/block/safe. Let's not provide the enemy with our gameplan...

It might be interesting though if me and Ray each post a suspect list. That might give the townies some clues to our investigative lines should one of us wind up dead by tomorrow.
Please, don't draw any conclusions from the way I list these names... This is just chosen at random
Suspect
Thyiad - Jason said it right. Someone is doing a mighty fine job on framing her, or thyiad is indeed guilty. At the very least, she never ever fell completely off of my suspicious list
Bob - His lack of posts in what pretty much amounts to the end game becomes more and more suspicious.
Fried - He pretty much blended in through this game. Several bandwagon votes(Lister, NacRuno). His 'stay cautious' claim is easy, and impossible to prove false. So it would be the ideal cover for a mafia or undercover cop role. That increased my suspicion level once again, hence the change of thought.

More or less trusted
PureSummon - Pretty much placed himself in the suspect list, by spotting ray after he was active. But Puresummon knew that it was a risky maneuvre (JAedhann became suspicious for doing the same day 2), and still chose to reveal the information he gleaned from his claimed drinking role. This doesn't scream mafia to me, since it would be easier to, like fried did, claim to have stayed cautious.
Serdash - Comments have been made about his infrequent posting. I commented on it as well. However, I'd only suggest going after him if there are no more obvious suspects out there. His inactivity is forum wide, which really does suggest RL problems.

Trusted
Ray - Since no one counterclaimed, I believe he is the goon. Don't expect many long posts from him though, he is hosting a mafia game at the community forum atm as well.
Maatiarna - Her spotting Ray was dead on. Posts a lot, sometimes a bit flaky logicwise imho, but on the level as far as I can see. Not a likely Greed victim at all.
Jason - His posts have always been informative and helpful (apart from his first 2 on day 1 perhaps). He pointed out that it is needful to keep tabs on everybody, and made his case in point himself. He pretty much seems on the level, however, if lukin turns up a cop, Jason might have been the Greed victim. His late claim makes this less likely, however.
Goltar - He claimed a drinking role on day 1, and outed Nac who turned out to be mafia. It could have been a ploy by a mafia member to gain the town trust, but he only went public with Nac's name long after the lynch on Smeg was locked in. That would mean he would have ended up as the last mafia member alive, which would be dangerous.
So I think he was, and still might be, on the level. However, as per Jason, if lukin turns out to be an undercover cop, he becomes my prime suspect for a possible greed victim and will be moved to the suspicious list automatically.
Nazdakka - See Goltar for the gist of it. He came up as inactive on night 1(with 2 NK), so the only way he could be mafia is if he was turned with Greed. However, since both he and Goltar came clean with their role on day 1, chances are pretty likely that he was indeed turned with Greed if lukin dies an undercover cop. Apart from a very active day 1, he has pretty much blended in postwise, which might be an indication of a changed role.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I am not sure what to make of the Night 2 NK. WHY was there only 1 dead person(Sitro?)

Allow me to sketch the three likely scenario's : from least to most likely.
1) The cops couldn't reach consensus on a target before daybreak. Mafia score lucky undercover cop kill.
2) Both EotF factions targetted the same person. In that case, falsify evidence must have been used by the cops on Sitro, making sint a genuine cop.
3) Sint urged the others to lay low, so he could claim a townie role on day 2('They tried to kill me, but failed because I was being cautious'). This also means that they probably used falsify evidence on night 1 to frame Aman (Sint obviously being a real cop, and, with no NK by the cops, a lucky stab by the mafia at Sitro who turned out to be a cop. The mafia might have deduced that Azador had an active role based on Muzzz's last post that day(it would be too weird to modkill Azador and loose his role/ability).


I was just musing at the NK patterns as they turned up. Notice that in 2 of my 3 sketches, Sint is indeed an UC. If case 3) turns out to be the truth, it tells us that it was important enough for Sint to gain trust to forego a NK, and therefore, that he would do his best to ferret out the mafia(with the obvious advantage that he knew who the other cops were).

Does anyone have another logical explanation for that night?
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

The 4th option is that Sint stayed cautious as he claimed, and then was later framed by the cops. The 5th option is that the doc saved him (or someone). The 6th option is that Ray blocked someone. However, Ray stated he blocked Naz on night two, so unless greed was used on Naz on night 1 (which I believe would make Naz inactive on night 1 and active on night 2, but I could be wrong, in which case greed might have been used on night 2), option 6 is ruled out.

Merlin, I like your analysis, it convinced me early on you were on the level, and had me suspecting you of a power role long before you revealed (probably how I picked up the veiled hint, I was looking for it). However, I have one question: why would lukin showing cop automatically place me in the suspect list as a greed target? I can understand how it might pin Naz, given his obvious change of style since day 2, but myself? I didn't make an early claim, and the only thing that positions me as an early trusted townie would be the fact no-one voted for me, which is quite insignificant at the start when there are a lot of options. I will admit, however, to a change in style. Coincidentally, at the same point Naz stopped posting, I started posting a lot more than previously. The reason was simple, and I explained it at the time: Liq was dead, and someone needed to rev the town up in his place. Seeing that no-one else wanted to do it (except maybe Merlin) I took it upon myself.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Did you miss my voting for myself?

I'm quite happy for you to lynch me. I like proving people wrong. I'm a townie.

Of course I didn't miss it. Are you suggesting that you should have NKed yourself for voting for yourself if you were a bad lass? :laugh:


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

If the doc had saved him, we'd have heard it from muzzz (If I recall an earlier statement correctly). If Naz was turned, he would be mafia. However, the kill turned out to be an undercover cop. Which means the cops had to have used falsify evidence on Sitro, which means Sint was a cop.

But your number 4) seems also likely. I have stuck to that theory for days now, but I felt that I should sketch the other scenarios. It could have been a splendid claim by Sint, you know... It would immediately put him in the trusted townie section. I was rethinking his insistance on lynching thyiad the day we voted for magic_boy. Can we infer some information from this?

@Jason, you pretty much answered it yourself. Once liquid and sint went byebye, you stepped forward to take the lead. You would no doubt have figured out yourself that a 'stay cautious' claim from a townie is impossible to disprove, unless someone actually got lucky and spotted you (me or a drunk townie). I reread your early game posts, and must admit I have no idea where I got the feeling from that you were a cautious townie.
Having said, I'll eat crow and take back my Greed remark about jason. However, of the three listed, you were ranked lowest in my book, if that helps. :P
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Code:
Vote # Voter        Prev votee   votee        
     1 Thyiad                    Maatiarna    
     2 Merlin                    Lukin        
     3 Lukin                     Friedbananaz 
     4 Lukin        Friedbananaz PureSummon   
     5 Lukin        PureSummon   Maatiarna    
     6 PureSummon                Lukin        
     7 PureSummon   Lukin        
     8 Jason                     Serdash      
     9 Maatiarna                 Serdash      
    10 Friedbananaz              Serdash      
    11 Serdash                   PureSummon   
    12 Jason        Serdash      Lukin        
    13 PureSummon                Lukin        
    14 Ray                       Lukin        
    15 Thyiad       Maatiarna    Lukin        
    16 Goltar                    Lukin        
    17 Bob                       Lukin        
    18 Friedbananaz Serdash      Lukin        
    19 Naz                       Lukin        
    20 Maatiarna    Serdash      Lukin

Lukin      10 
Maatiarna   1 
PureSummon  1

Lukin has been lynched. He was part of the rival mafia.

It is now night 6. I need PM's.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Errata to the above:

[highlight]Lukin was an undercover cop[/highlight], not a member of the rival mafia. Hopefully that'll teach me not to wrap things up when in a hurry. My apologies.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

That wasn't very unexpected... Well, I snooped on Friedbananazzzz, and he turned out to be snoring... loudly... while all the excitement took place.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@merlin that only leaves Bob and Thyiad on your suspect list.

Now since I have been over the previous games that Thyiad has played I am inclined to think at the moment she is ok for now, as there my be a frame job going on her. BUT that does not mean by any means that she is of my suspect list. She has just dropped down the list below Bobthewarrior.

Bob comes in usually at the end of the game, makes a post that has limited helpful content and bandwagaon votes for someone that already has their lynch sealed.

I am going to go over and reread his posts and vote later.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Actually, I failed to spot Muzzz's error... :P Well, no matter, I wanted to know what Fried was up to anyways. But other suspects on this list now also include Goltar and Nazdakka.
Currently, my top 4 suspects from 1 the most to 4 the least are
1) Bob, 2) Goltar, 3) Naz, 4) Thyiad.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Hey! I don't snore that loudly! Thanks for clearing my name, I knew it would happen eventually.

Bob really hasn't contributed much this whole game, and is on pretty much everybody's suspect list, so I'll open the vote on him today. But Merlin's Greed suspects are all likely possibilites as well, so I'll keep an open mind for the rest of the day if people have better reasons to go after them.

Vote: BobTheWarrior

lukin's death should mean the end of the cops, correct? Do we not get a confirmation from muzzz about the end of a faction, or do we have to wait until the end of the game?
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Fried, there have been 4 undercover cops revealed when Nked and Lynched. So I think that, that is the end of the cops because there was only 3 to start off with. So the falsifying of evidence has also been used effectively. So I don't think Muzzz really needs to reveal that little piece of information.

Now down to the voting business

Due to lack of posting and not being very helpful most of the game. Bob is acting more and more suspiciously.

Vote BobTheWarrior
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I'm less inclined to go after Bob today. Based on how he's been posting, he seems to be trying to hide something, but not something bad. Specifically, I think he's our doctor. I'm more concerned about Nazdakka. As has been pointed out, his posting style changed dramatically after the 1st day. That's got me concerned he's been converted. I'm not ready to make a vote yet, but at this point, I'm inclined to give Bob at least another day, especially since we've lost our goon now.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Thyiad - Claims townie. Insists townie. Begs us to kill her so we'll be proven wrong and she can gloat. Has had a chip about maatiarna for few days now. Given the other reveals I don't see how she could have more information than the rest of us. Unless. . . .

maatiarna - has never liked me due to my few posts and feels I'm unhelpful. As explained above has been Thyiads target for days. I have a more 'familia' read on her rather than an EotF.

goltar25 - seems to be on the level, spotted a confirmed EotF on night one. I have no reasons to doubt at this moment.

Puresummon - I'll need to reread his posts, I became suspicious of him recently, I seem to remember him defending himself recently but don't remember my impression of his defence. Claimed to have seen Ray on night 4 after he'd already been spoted.

Serdash - claims to have spotted Puresummon as he was spotting Ray. Hasn't posted much of anything anywhere in the forums, so he's a bit of an enigma at the moment.

Nazdakka - I don't like the way his posting changed in the middle of the game with no mention of a real life interruption. Suspicious.

Jason Maher - seems like a familia.

Merlin - has a believeable claim as the snoop.

friedbananazzzz - is vouched for by Merlin.


So, my suspicious list in decending order of suspect:

Thyiad and maatiarna - unless and until Thyiad further explains her conviction to get maatiarna lynched, I will have doubts about both of them.

Puresummon and Serdash - I need to reread their posts. Until I do . . .

Nazdakka - my most suspicious at the moment.

Vote: Nazdakka

I may change my vote after reading Puresummons' and Serdashs' recent posts.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Gah, losing track of this game. So I made this:

Code:
Alive:
Thyiad......................Claimed drinker.
Goltar......................Claimed drinker.
Bob
PureSummon..................Claimed drinker.
friedbananazz...............Claimed cautious, blocking did not prevent NK.
Naz.........................Claimed cautious.
Serdash.....................Claimed drinker.
Jason
Merlin......................Claimed Snoop.
maatiarna

Dead:
Aman........................Agent, NKed night 1.
Ray.........................Goon, NKed night 6.
Lukin.......................Agent, lynched day 5.
Azador/SiTro................Agent, NKed night 2.
NacRuno.....................Rival Mafia, lynched day 2.
Nolecub.....................Townie, NKed night 4.
Zhao Yue....................Townie, NKed night 1.
Jaedhann....................Townie, lynched day 4.
Sint........................Agent, NKed night 4.
Magicboy....................Rival Mafia, lynched day 3.
W_m.........................Townie, NKed night 5.
Lister......................Rival Mafia, lynched day 1.
Liquid......................Claimed drinker, NKed night 3.

Anyone who wants to add information about themselves or others that I haven't managed to fill in, feel free. If we could all work together to keep this table updated, then keeping track of the game will get a lot easier. I'd be particularly interested in having what nights people drank on the table, but I have no time right now.

Re: The guilty - Remember that any successful drinking before night 2 is not a sign of innocence - we are looking for someone targetted by Greed. Actually, now I think about it, if I were an EotF, my perfect target for Greed would be a spent drinker. You aren't going to get caught by a random stay cautious, and you can be pretty sure that you'll miss the power roles. Therefore, I'm looking at those people who drank successfully early on.

Re: Me - Yeah, I've become quieter after expounding on my Cunning Plan day 1. I do have a new job which means I work long hours, and I missed the end of day 2 because it ended before I got home, but I wasn't sure what to say anyway, so meh. If you look in previous games you will see I tend to post in waves, going nuts some days and being quiet others.

Sitting on my vote for now - Maybe tomorrow when I have time for further research.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Bob it is not the fact that I have never liked you, its basically your post yesterday that has made me quite suspicious of you as if you have something to hide.

Upon reading goltar's post 595 he has made a good point that I did not think of.

Therefore Unvote BobTheWarrior

@Bob is the only reason that I am on your suspicions list because Thyiad is so instant that I am anti-town? If it is can you answer this question that Thyiad has been avoiding answering: If I am anti-town how come on day 3 I outed Ray as being active at night after a night getting quite drunk, with Ray confirming that he was active and claimed Goon?

But both Bob and Goltar do have a very good point about Naz. I will go and have another little sticky beak at his posts after day 1
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Naz I drank on night 3 and saw Ray if you would like to add that to your little list
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Vote: Thyiad

This isn't as random of a vote since there seem to be 3(2?) Mafia and the power roles left for figuring out, correct?

And then Thyiad saying in #581 that she would love to be lynched because she loves proving people wrong? Now I'm fairly certain Thy has the unlucky streak of being lynched as a townie in these games, right? Why not use that to an advantage? I think it's reasonable to suspect that there's some alternate role going on in all of that.

Plus, who votes for themselves just to prove a point? Well. Aside from Thy. We all know she crazeh.
 
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