OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Damn, didn't finish the post. Sorry, it's 2 am and I am beat. Still for the sake of clarity, let me finish it.

So what you basically accuse liq and his cronies of doing is on the very first day, out of the blind, use their one shot ability to falsify evidence so they can randomly accuse a guy(Lister) and make sure that it sticks, hope the town will execute him(not sure), and further hope that the faction who they declared him to be does not follow up with a retribution?
I'd say Liq's wager that you are not the goon is a far more safe one, and I am not willing to take that one either.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@Merlin you did not take into account that Lister admitted that he was mafia yesterday after Liq come out and said that he was active that night.

So I ask you this question NacRuno: How could Liq have falsified the evidence against Lister to make him look mafia when Lister himself already confessed????
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I had the 2nd most votes yesterday so NacRuno thought I'd be the best candidate to help shift suspicion off himself.

He had all night to discuss these things with his mafia buddy and this was the best they came up with. Target Liq...if that doesn't work, roleclaim the goon so the real one will come forward to deny and then can be killed by the remaining member at night...then continue beating a dead horse with poor logic trying to make Liq out to be the world's worst crooked cop.

To people that skim: NacRuno is rival mafia and needs your vote immediately. If I am wrong, I'll aid in my own death tomorrow.

@ w_m- I voted first on Nac and Lister and they are both Rival Mafia faction so I should still be sitting pretty as one of the only Vendetta options. (And they better use it soon because I'm getting close to putting a name to their final member...worst mafia ever)
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Okay this'll be fun:

LE and what if you, nac and lister were mafia together, decided to use the greed option to get another player and then set one person up (you) by sacrificing TWO members? :grin:
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sint Nikolaas said:
You think they try to turn a townie who has already used their ability, or one who hasn't? I think they will use it and use it soon on someone not too obvious who hasn't claimed so that they disable the town role and get a new member. We can only hope they hit a powerrole.
Click to expand...
Why in name of all that's holy would you think that? It's far safer to not only turn some one confirmed as safe but to go for some one who's now on the town's "trusted" books.
Liquid_Evil said:
I mean does anyone believe goltar, Sint, Jaed, Thy, and me are 100% in the clear?
Click to expand...
Nah, and if those turn coats did try to turn one of us, ya'll are more suspect as such nice safe targets.
Jason Maher said:
Anyway, for my vote, I'm going with the person who either didn't notice Lister's confession, pretended not to notice, and wants to keep betting against the odds re Liq's guilt
Click to expand...
We have several folks who fit at least part of that bill. Including several following the time honored mafia tactic of laying low or switching votes to appear to vote but act as a no vote. You know, the kind of tactic that works a lot better than direct accusations? They include:
Puresummon
Magicboy both of whom have posted only nice little recap memos today.
and Nacruno
Lukin

The recap memos are the most troublesome to me, it's one thing to say you're suspicious of some one though most folks forget that by the next day (else we'd have started the day taking out Merlin, whom at least 3 folks held up as suspect yesterday.) but the recap when all you did the day before was be a wishy wash is just over the top. So for both supporting Naz's plan but only after everyone pointed out how it'd take out the Doc and squelch the town and for the very reasons Jason voted Thy,
I'm opening the vote on Magicboy



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Sint Nikolaas said:
Okay this'll be fun:

LE and what if you, nac and lister were mafia together, decided to use the greed option to get another player and then set one person up (you) by sacrificing TWO members? :grin:
Click to expand...

Occam's Razor should cleave that idea in two, but I'll entertain you. It's a nice (albeit far-fetched) thought I guess, but I think it would be hard to talk two members into killing them the first two days. "It's for the good of the team to end your play, and consequently your fun, right now in the first two days. I'm the selfish one so I've decided to set myself up as the trusting individual."

Yeah, I'm sure they'd be keen to hear that. I also think if this was the case that we would have waited a couple days (or at least until the Snoop was dead or more townies had used their drinking abilities). If I was seen out at night then they would immediately know that my first day claim was false (and could infer that everything else I said was false) and then I would make for an extremely good lynch target, leaving only the recruited member to win the game for us (poor odds of pulling it off with several days left of trying to avoid the lynch as well as dodging NK's by the crooked cops). Also, if those two were my teammates, I would have PM'ed them things to post that would have actually furthered the plans along. Instead Lister said I was part of his faction as a last ditch effort to save himself (and oddly enough it got me 4 votes...). There'd be no way our team would be "backstabbing" enough to rat each other out in posts for the whole town to read.

When, not if, NacRuno shows rival mafia, I'll have gained too much trust and my game will be over via NK. However, I'll post a suspect list before the end of the day so you guys aren't left hanging when my role is confirmed. Aman, Lister, and NacRuno will all be dead and that's half of the bad guys. The town is off to a great start and one more correct kill will stop the double NK's completely.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nacruno may be telling the truth, he may not be.

Nevertheless, his claims about LE are totally beyond comprehension.

There are three options for LE as I see it

He is mafia: in that case he killed one of his own. After all, he couldn't falsify evidence if he is mafia. That would make very little sense, especially the first day. I understand the whole gaining the town's trust thing, and Liq is certainly capable of herding the sheep, but in my experience, the sheperds will always die before the end. His plan would also be way too risky as it opens him up to an undercover cop kill.

He is an Undercover cop: This makes no sense considering Lister claimed mafia. Liq put his butt on the line yesterday and it is too risky a move unless he was trying to falsify the evidence. If he was, then Lister's claim would make no sense.

He is a townie who used his drinking ability or maybe has a town power-role....when all other probabilities are eliminated, whatever remains must be the truth.

If Nacruno is a townie with a power-role, then he needs to seriously reconsider his line of thinking. To me, using the goon power on Liq was a bad move altogether.

Let's lynch Nac. If he is the Goon, then we have lost IMO the least powerful town role. If he isn't, we have killed a mafia member or potentially, the last undercover agent which would be an incredible boon to the town (eliminating one night kill completely)

Of course, because of Greed, LE will never be in the clear totally (or any other "proven" townie for that matter.)
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I know I have been getting some suspicion thrown my way because of lack of posting and not voting yesterday.

I can explain both.

Lack of posting: right now I am working 14 hour days during the workweek which means I can post before 5:30 AM my time or after 8:00 PM. I can't access the site at work because they have blocked it. That being said, the workweek is over and I am about to lay a string of posts this weekend that should satisfy some of the doubters.

Lack of voting for Lister: by the time I got on to see what was happening, Sint had already accused me of being mafia because I wasn't voting for Lister fast enough. Voting for him at that point would have been moot anyway since he had more than enough votes to get lynched and may have (I'm not sure about the time) already confessed.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I'm up late and will have less and less chances to post throughout the day so I thought I better get a list of my top suspects out there.

Confirmed Rival Mafia: Sir Lister of Smeg, NacRuno
Confirmed Crooked Cops: SiTro/Azador, Aman

These are the 5 most suspicious people to me in order of greatest to least, and the order I’d propose lynching them in the near future. No one wants to follow down some dead guy’s list (especially if there’s a mess-up), but definitely try and keep these people in mind while reading new posts. Oh, and really look at the detailed vote lists that Muzzz posts; there’s some good stuff in there.

1) PureSummon- 6 posts. Most notably on my list for poor logic and the careful way in which he tries to explain things that might be construed as suspicious. Point in case is post #286. Also did not vote a confirmed Mafioso the first day. At mid-day today, he hadn’t yet voted for anyone.
2) Magicboy- 8 posts. Didn’t end up voting the first day despite having claimed four people were suspicious “Merlin, Liq, Naz, Smeg.†It was pointed out that him that suspecting both myself and Smeg was counterintuitive since we were each basically calling the other a liar. He is still not voting today and with little baiting phrases like this, “However, would revealing the doc really help out the town?†he looks to be purposely playing dumb. There should be very few reasons to play dumb in this game.
3) Nolecub- 14 posts. Semi-active but is very eager to throw accusations around (whether they are founded or not). He strikes me as a medium profile mafia smokescreen or a non-thinking townie. When prompted to explain some of his theories, he immediately cited others’ opinions. “Just read the umpteen ahead of mine.†Stubborn and defensive. Also did not vote a confirmed Mafioso the first day.
4) maatiarna- 8 posts. Recently, she has very obviously started distancing herself from NacRuno with more and more attacks on Thyiad. She also voted against the grain the first day with taking a stab at Nolecub rather than following the mass with a confirmed Mafioso. Later she brings up the “curiousness†of those people that voted me the first day. Some of her posts start with “Does anyone other than me think…†and “Has anyone else noticed…†This is a common mafia technique used to lead people to a certain end. They are nudges towards an idea that they want a townie to pick up on and run with. This makes the townie the center of attention and subject to any backlash for promoting the idea. She indirectly asked us to take her post #297 with a grain of salt after she noticed that NacRuno had posted while she was typing. The only problem was that there would have been ~1 hour between his post and when she finally posted hers. It was indeed long but definitely doesn’t contain an hour’s worth of content.
5) Jaedhann- 4 posts. Thinks I’m trying to “play the town.†Hides among NCPs. Everything is short and sweet with him. No over-analysis, nothing to make him stand out. Voted Lister early the first day and didn’t change so he’s looking at least like he’s not part of the Rival mafia. Perhaps the last bad cop.

(Thyiad is also pretty suspicious, but less so than the above imo)
*There’s actually probably only 1 mafioso in the above list of 5 (probably in the top 3). The last will probably be masquerading in a current position of trust and be harder to find.

@ The Real Goon- Don’t come forward to counter NacRuno unless the town starts to believe his garbage as it’s just a ploy to get you killed. Also, start locking the above people down at night. There is only 1 in each faction remaining after Nac is killed and that means that if there’s only 1 NK, then you should come forward immediately to get that person lynched and stop the double night kills. You’ll likely die soon after, but trading your life for a 50% reduction in townie deaths is the smart play. There’s always the chance the doc saved someone or that someone stayed cautious, but bank on the odds and play your gut.

As it stands right now though, keep the votes on NacRuno. Do not let him get away. He is mafia.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Liquid_Evil said:
4) maatiarna- 8 posts. Recently, she has very obviously started go
1 this is only my second time playing mafia online ever and I am still figuring out how to play the game. Therefore as you have no real experience playing with me. Well Liq no one really has as my first game was last round.
2 In regards to starting distancing myself from NacRuno, I never associated myself with him in the first place if you go over my previous 8 posts you will see that I have only said that he could be a townie BUT he was still a person of interest to me!!!!!
3In regards to taking an hour to write a post. I have a 19 month old daughter that I had to attend to whilst I was typing. Just look at my avitar and you can see my daughter. Now tell me Liq you try posting and having to look after a toddler in the late morning 10 or 11am here in Brisbane, Australia and see how long it takes you to post.
Click to expand...
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Liquid_Evil said:
4) maatiarna- 8 posts. Recently, she has very obviously started distancing herself from NacRuno with more and more attacks on Thyiad. She also voted against the grain the first day with taking a stab at Nolecub rather than following the mass with a confirmed Mafioso. Later she brings up the “curiousness†of those people that voted me the first day. Some of her posts start with “Does anyone other than me think…†and “Has anyone else noticed…†This is a common mafia technique used to lead people to a certain end. They are nudges towards an idea that they want a townie to pick up on and run with. This makes the townie the center of attention and subject to any backlash for promoting the idea. She indirectly asked us to take her post #297 with a grain of salt after she noticed that NacRuno had posted while she was typing. The only problem was that there would have been ~1 hour between his post and when she finally posted hers. It was indeed long but definitely doesn’t contain an hour’s worth of content.
Click to expand...

1 this is only my second time playing mafia online ever and I am still figuring out how to play the game. Therefore as you have no real experience playing with me. Well Liq no one really has as my first game was last round.
2 In regards to starting distancing myself from NacRuno, I never associated myself with him in the first place if you go over my previous 8 posts you will see that I have only said that he could be a townie BUT he was still a person of interest to me!!!!!
3In regards to taking an hour to write a post. I have a 19 month old daughter that I had to attend to whilst I was typing. Just look at my avitar and you can see my daughter. Now tell me Liq you try posting and having to look after a toddler in the late morning 10 or 11am here in Brisbane, Australia and see how long it takes you to post.

Sorry the first one did not make sence not allowed to edit and my daugther deleted half the quote. So second time lucky. Sorry about that.

And by the by I am a plan townie if anyone would like to know.


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I did not say Liq I wanted you to respond to me first I chose drinking and I have not used it yet. FYI
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Now Liq that I have put myself out there as a drinking townie when in your opinion should I use my ability.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Now with my obviously annoyed statements directed towards you Liq are out of the way. The reason why I am attacking thyiad is because I think that she is an anti town role purely by the way that she is choosing to play this game.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Something to bear in mind: The Goon is a pretty crappy power role, which needs quite a lot to go right for it to accomplish anything useful. That, to my mind, increases the chance that NacRuno is townie (by a little bit), but decreases the cost of lynching him to check. Then again, if you are an Enemy of the Family (henceforth in my fosts to be abbreviated as EotF), you don't really want to claim one of the good power roles, because if you survive people will wonder why you don't get NKed.

Vote NacRuno
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

@maatiarna - My post(s) are concerned with Nacruno's logic, and deal with the moment Liquid said on day 1 that Smeg was out and about last night and looked suspicious. This is before Lister said anything, and so his later admittance is not a factor there.

@Sint - Liq being mafia and sacrificing 2 of his own faction to gain our trust? Indeed very risky, since his high profile would draw attention both from the undercover cops and the townie power roles(notably the snoop).

@Magicboy - Voting is the only power a townie has. You have not exercised that power during day 1, and have not made an excuse either. I may be suspicious to you for 'changing my opinion too much', but your current behavior makes you suspicious as well, because, while you certainly voice suspicions loud enough, you are unwilling to back them up with a vote.

The reason why I changed my vote this early today is simple. I am suspicious of Jaedhann.
The first day he posted very little. Two posts is about all. Both before liquid pegs him as a high suspect for having a mafia role. (post 170, last post on page 17)
Then his next post is at the start of day 2, when he claims to have seen Thyiad up and about right after she states she saw NacRuno active that night. A very short and convenient post, all he needs to hope for is that Thyiad's claim isn't falsified. And Nacruno comes out and confirms his nightly activity.

Now that he has established his townie reputation, his coup de grace so far is to post a lengthy (yes, for him lengthy post 242 With all of 7 lines, he makes detailed, and well thought out accusations against both liquid and thyiad. Well, not really.

Once I noticed that, Jaedhann became a lot more suspicious to me then Thyiad, and hence gained my vote. Feel free to defend yourself JAedhann... Try to make a post with a little bit of content though...
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

For the ones that ask me how i can stand behind the theory of Liq being a bad cop despite the odds:

What i learned from muzzz through my questions is that the bad cop ability is used as follows. The cops give muzzz a statement like "using the bad cop ability: make Lister's death seem as a rival mafia" at a night. Then their request is transfered to muzzz, it will take place no matter how or when the death takes place. Which also means that Lister will die a rival mafia no matter if he is a regular towny, has a power role or or is a rival mafia in truth. Therefore my theory suggests that Liq and his gang decided on choosing a victim and used their ability like i have said. Then Liq insisted on Lister being killed due to him seeing him via drinking. If lister is lynched that day he is displayed as a rival mafia and if he is killed another day he still dies as a rival mafia giving Liquid the better trump of saying "I've told so". Therefore this theory doesn't rely on Lister being an actual mafia in any way. The fact that Lister actually being a rival mafia also does not mean this theory is wrong, it was just much less likely. If my theory is true, then you can see that Liq has increased the chance of him being a regular towny to a great extent. And using the trust he has erned even now he is pointing out the possible mafia candidates to follow. My plan is not based on a guy claiming to have used drinking ability, it is more based on the fact that Liq's posts are over insistive, over hasty and in a way all are written with the object of leading others to a single direction. His further claims have just decreased his reiability in my opinion therefore i am still behind my initial vote.

(NOTE: Only merlin came up with a theory that in a way corrupts my way of thinking, and i must admit that was something i have not thought of before. Still every plan has flaws, and maybe that was the flaw of their plan. And my vote stays same due to reasons i have told above)

Another explanation is needed for the ones that question my words. I have not revealed myself in a last minite resort to save myself. Revealing my identity does not lengthen my survivality in anyway since if i am not lynched, i will most likely get NK'ed. And if i am not NK'ed it is definate that i will get lynched the next day no matter what i claim to me.
 
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