OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nazdakka said:
One more point to the people saying the plan is flawed:

Give me, in detail, your worst-case scenario, and how likely you think it is.
Click to expand...

While I'm not completely against the plan, I think i'll make one last comment about it before I retire for the night.

If both mafia groups (assuming that there are indeed two) target someone, the doctor has a 1/7 chance of being targeted. Not bad since 6/7 of the chance is to target a mafia.

If one mafia group targets someone, the doctor has a 1/4 chance of being targeted. This is decent. Not bad but not good. (This can easily be done by the mafia if one group doesn't target but the other group does)

If no mafia groups target anyone, the doctor has a 0/1 chance of being targeted. In other words, 0% chance. (This can be done if both mafia groups decide not to target anyone) Good side to this happening is that the doctor is sure to live. Bad thing is that the person that decided to drink won't get any results.

Worst case scenario: Doc is targeted for mafia and is lynched. Later in the game, a mafia player claims doc. The odds may seem low but considering that it is 1/7 or 1/4 EVERY NIGHT, the doc will probably be found soon or later.

This is assuming that no other power role uses the night ability. (Which is kind of a waste to me really)


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Oh and to make it more clear: After the doc is lynched, the bad cops change the allegience of the dead doc making him a mafia or something.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Upon rereading the thread again my suspicions list has grown. Not only do I suspect Nolecub for making posts that are not really helpful to the town, I am now suspicious of Thyiad for this same reason. To me this is very anti-town behaviour.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Ray Patean said:
Worst Case Scenario: The anti-town roles stay inactive, thus leaving only the doc and the drinker as the active roles. The mafia does this until all the potential drinkers have finished, and then goes about killing us one by one with no fear of being seen by a drinker. It is highly likely to happen, especially if people keep coming forward to say "I'll be the one to rat out the anti-town roles tonight!"
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...which is a really, really good outcome. We get to shut down the Bad Guys' NK ability for ~ 4 nights - a huge victory for the town.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nazdakka said:
...which is a really, really good outcome. We get to shut down the Bad Guys' NK ability for ~ 4 nights - a huge victory for the town.
Click to expand...

Except that we are then lynching blindly for four days...and in the mean time, the Undercover cops can cause some havoc by switching roles. I think it could be very detrimental.


 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Has everyone here forgotten the Snoop? I'm sure Naz has, because he hasn't factored the Snoop's ability into his analysis that I can see. As a reminder for those who may have forgotten (like I did, I went back and re-read muzzz's game-start post): the Snoop gets to nominate a player each night, and gets revealed whether they were active or not. The thing about the Snoop is that to really gather any useful information about an active target, he needs to target them two nights in a row. If they show inactive on the second night, they're most likely a drunk. If they show active both nights, then they must either be the Goon, the Doc, or a bad guy.

However, and this is where Naz's plan may ultimately prove useful, the Snoop can investigate someone spotted by a drunk, and conclude as above based on whether they are active on a subsequent night. So instead of needing to investigate someone twice, the drunks can do the first bit of investigating for the Snoop (also prevents the Snoop wasting an investigation on an inactive townie). The only downside to this is if the Goon decides to block the person revealed by a drunk, the Snoop will get an inactive read, which may have otherwise been an active read.

To sum up, I'm suggesting a revised Naz plan whereby each day a drunk can volunteer, give us a name the next day, who if we decide not to lynch can be investigated by the Snoop, who at some later point when they feel they have enough names reveal themselves as any good Cop would do.

Anyway, for the moment (so I don't get pegged as a non-voter, even though my vote makes no difference at this point):

vote: Sir Lister of Smeg
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Did anyone notice my request? I doubt it, as I have seen nobody respond to it. I'll repeat it. I've got a name of somebody who was active last night. From what I've seen of their posts, at this point, I'm inclined to think they're pro-town. But I'm very close to neutral on this. So I'd like to hear other people's opinions before I reveal the name. Specifically, not on Lister. More specifically, not including the currently popular target Naz or Liquid. Give me your opinions of the others who have been ignored thus far. If I don't notice anything significant, at this point, I'm holding on to the name for now. I'd rather not expose one of our power roles.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nazdakka said:
...which is a really, really good outcome. We get to shut down the Bad Guys' NK ability for ~ 4 nights - a huge victory for the town.
Click to expand...

Stopping them for four nights is nowhere near enough incentive to try and do this. All it does is prolong them killing everyone else. It lets us blindly attempt to lynch four people, meaning we could kill the Snoop or the Goon.

I think its a bit too convenient that you had this huge potentially game-winning plan, all based on the drinking ability, and you went with the other option. I doubt you came up with this plan after you decided your role, so why would you decide to go with the ability that doesn't help your plan?

All too convenient, and highly suspicious.



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I saw your request goltar and was going to see how you handled things on your own. Here is my list you can compare to yours. If we both have someone in the "Probable Townie" column, then you might be wise to keep their name from the town. However, if I have him/her labeled in another category, you might want to consider rereading their posts with a new perspective and decide from there (but trust your own assumptions over mine, so just go with your gut and your own list). Regardless, I'd wait for them to post at least a few more times to get all the "evidence" you can. It's still the first day and I'm sure my current list will undoubtedly change over the course of the game.

The Probable Townies
Naz- The most suspicious thing he did was not choose a drinking ability, but I can see how there could be confusion with the rules. Like I said before, only the most hardcore Mafioso is going to post multiple pages of a game rule exploit in an attempt to appear townie on the first day. Naz is not hardcore. Therefore, Naz is townie.
Ray- Adamant about the holes in Naz’s plan. Hasn’t posted much besides his disdain for the idea of it. Has remained consistent to his few posts.
Sint- Similar to his usual playstyle. Seems critical and observant (and apparently tried a tactic similar to myself). Picked up on some of the same things I did and knows the best course of action at this point is to vote Smeg. If he is mafia, then he’s not on Smeg’s team. Townie in my eyes.
Goltar- Claimed to have also used his ability last night. Like me, I see no reason to claim this if you’re not trying to help out the town. It would be a risky 1st day mafia plan. Not out of the question, but still rather unlikely in my eyes.
Jason- Voted late, but still brought some food to the table. Currently okay in my eyes.
Bob- Nothing I saw made him out to be mafia-oriented. Will re-examine later.

The Maybe Townies
PureSummon- Late to vote with a mysterious unvote. Hasn’t brought much to the table in terms of posts but wants us to think he knows more than he’s letting on. Needs to come forward with his thoughts or get killed. Maybe townie.
Friedbananazzzz- Middle-of-the-roader. Seems more townie-oriented thus far, but haven’t seen enough that really grabbed me to know for certain.
Magicboy- Bizarre suspect list. Sloppy mafia or sloppy townie I can’t say for sure yet. Needs to exercise more critical thinking in either case.
maatiarna- Unsure of her. No real past game experiences with her to compare too. An odd vote for Nolecub that doesn’t go with the pack. Will wait to comment further.
Merlin- Also on the fence about this guy. Doesn’t appear to be obvious mafia, but doesn’t appear overly townie either. Will once again wait to comment further.
W_m- She posted at night straight away. If she had a role more than just townie, she might have been more leery to risk a modkill. Dislikes Naz’s plan and voiced her opinion on it. She seems like the usual w_m we’ve seen from previous games. Still, I'm always leery to trust her completely.

Players currently NOT in the best interest of the town
Jaedhann- Two posts this far. Very good at blending in. His first post was an admitted bandwagon and his second was some pure non-content nonsense about the doc. Needs to post more often and more than 2 sentences at a time to get off my suspect list. Possible mafia.
NacRuno- No early votes and continuously cites things like this, “I still more opinions to cast my vote though...†He’s not a self-starter and obviously has a herd mentality OR is simply waiting to see if someone can get the ball rolling on someone he has less vested interest in than Smeg. Possible mafia.
Azador- NO POSTS AT ALL YET. Needs to post soon or die. I hate inactives.
Thyiad- NCP. One sentence posts meaning nothing or one sentence posts asking bizarre questions. Hasn’t helped in the game but has posted enough oddities to get noticed by people other than myself. Possibly mafia smokescreen. Possibly apathetic townie just playing to make waves. Neither bodes well for the town.
Lukin- Similar to NacRuno. Tried to remain low-key by abstaining from the vote early on. His posts appear to distance him from Smeg but also cites that his gut tells him Smeg is mafia. This is a standard mafia tactic. They remain skeptical of their teammates so they can later cite that they knew all along and were posting as such. However, they only vote them well after everyone else has. All talk, no action. Mafia and likely Smeg’s partner in crime.
Nolecub- Very little good information in his posts. Has a problem reading. Poor assumptions and wild 1st day theories. At best the worst townie ever. At worst another Mafioso.
Lister- Did not defend himself. Was seen out last night and has no real response to that. Caught lying. Definite mafia.
Serdash- A NCP bandwagon vote. In these games he can be a smart-alleck, but his ONLY post in this thread wasn’t harsh at all. He jumped on someone early when others did, then tried to make it light-hearted (chalked with a smiley usually absent from his posts) and a lame joke. Mafia posting early enough to remain low-key, but quickly disappearing to let others take the heat.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Nazdakka said:
I even sent Muzzz a PM at the right time, saying that I didn't want to use either ability that night (which is what I thought I needed to do) - from reading it he can't have failed to figure out that I'd gotten things mixed up - but... he's the GM, so whatever.
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm the GM. Which either means you trust me to play fair, or you don't join my game. :closed:



 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

After receiving a verification from muzz on the matter, i feel the need to share my concern over Lister's likely lynching and Liq's insistent post about the matter.

Liq has stated that he is ready to offer himself if he is lying about the issue. But he is very certain that he is not, (thus saying he know he is not lying).

And even if he is lying, the worst case would be Lister being a regular townie so we lynch Liq the next day. What if Liq is one of the bad cops and they have chosen to use their ability to falsify the dead of today's lynching? (this was the matter that needed verification from muzz)

This theory makes Liq's insistive posts more meaningful. Even from the start he has not though of the possilility than even if he has seen Lister active, he might be a power role. Also Liq was the first person to post and he voted Lister immediately. His actions were so that everybody started to believe that lynching Lister is the best solution at hand.

Now, what would Liq would get from this if my speculation is true, he would be the most trusted person in the game with the ability to kill people everynight.

Also he is such a suppoter of Naz's plan, i very much lean to thinkink that he has seen the ways to manipulate the plan, and by promoting the plan as well as being so defensive on Naz, he is trying to set his way to the later stages of the game.

I am sorry but although lister's lack of activity in the thread is encouriging to vote him, the excessive activity and posts of lister are more distrubing imo.

vote Liq
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Also considering Liq's latest post about his assumptions on the roles, it is not hard to see that all the people he has labeled as possible towny had stated their suspicion on him in a way.

And although the reasons he has given to label those people as such suit for other people too (the maybe townies especially), those people are not listed as suspicious since as far as i remember they have not stated any suspicion on Liq in their previous posts.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

NacRuno said:
Now, what would Liq would get from this if my speculation is true, he would be the most trusted person in the game with the ability to kill people everynight.
Click to expand...
If you’d have played a game with this crowd before, you’d know that would not be the case. Regardless of his role, I will still be looked at questionably. Already people are citing my previous game tactics. I’m going to be kept at arm’s length for the rest of this game (and probably beyond with the way game histories are viewed).

However, when you look at Occam’s Razor and that the principle that the simplest solution tends to be the correct one, you should see why voting me makes the least sense. You shouldn’t play the long shots on the first day. Instead, the town should go with the safest, most sound reasoning, but I’ll entertain your nonsense idea(2) and compare it to the truth(1).
1) I’m a townie that drank last night like I claimed. I posted the truth and am banking on the odds of eliminating a player I feel is not in the best interest of the town. Smeg’s own posts only serve to make me more sure of his anti-town stance.
2) I’m a crooked cop and have set in motion a grand plan to lynch Lister. I voted him before he had a chance to post (and therefore had nothing to base his role on except my gut and the knowledge that he's not a crooked cop like me). Since the odds are about 2 out of every 3 people are a plain townie, I have to roll the dice and cross my fingers that Smeg, when lynched, comes up as that magic 33%. If he doesn’t, my plan fails and I will be lynched immediately tomorrow. If he does, good for me and I can continue on to "Phase 2" of Operation: Risk it all the 1st Day.

If we just look at the numbers, odds are again on my side. With 3 crooked cops (with one of them dead), so now 2, I would have had to choose the falsify evidence before the game started and concocted my plan. Or Muzzz would have had to assign me that (I’m unsure on the rules pertaining to those roles.) That means that out of 23 players, I’d have a ~9% to land that a crooked cop role (with Aman’s death factored in). I would then have to choose or be assigned the falsify evidence ability so the chances of me being this person get even smaller. Factor in the wildness of the scheme and me coming forward in the first hours of the first day as this wolf masquerading as the world’s most obvious townie and this is clearly not the safe man’s bet. There was 14 townies starting this game (now 13 minus Zhao) so that already shows that the numbers are on my side. That’s a ~61% chance just from the 1st day odds that I was assigned that role. From that look at all the information, lynching me *today* would be the least pro-town thing this town could do. You are proposing to lynch me; therefore, you are not pro-town.

I’ve said my piece and if I haven’t convinced you yet, I doubt I’ll be able too. However, I still believe you have rightly been placed in my mafia category so convincing you isn’t something I need to do. Since my suspicion list was posted, you’ve only went up the charts.

NacRuno said:
Also considering Liq's latest post about his assumptions on the roles, it is not hard to see that all the people he has labeled as possible towny had stated their suspicion on him in a way.
Click to expand...
Townies tend to think similarly. To serve you better in future mafia games, you need to write posts with how an actual townie might react to the situation. I’m going to quote myself from earlier because I believe it’s now doubly true. You are trying to go against the odds and natural choice to save someone you have a vested interest in, your partner in crime, Smeg.
Liquid_Evil said:
NacRuno- No early votes and continuously cites things like this, “I still more opinions to cast my vote though...†He’s not a self-starter and obviously has a herd mentality OR is simply waiting to see if someone can get the ball rolling on someone he has less vested interest in than Smeg. Possible mafia.
Click to expand...
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

NacRuno, your worst case scenario can be easily thwarted. See, if the snoop spends one night investigating Liq, (s)he'll know whether he spoke the truth or not. Since, if Liq is indeed one of the bad guys, he'll show up on the snooping radar, when he and his croonies entertain themselves with their nightly killings. :smiley: And that would peg him as a bad guy, since liq cannot be active anymore at nights by his own alledged role claim.

Naz, how does your plan cope with the following though?
a) Person A states (s)he is going to drink
b) Person B, the doc, gears up and stands by to provide some medical backup in case ugly things happen to person A
c) Person C, D, and E, the rival mafia, decide to NK A. They fail.
d) *optional* Person F and G, the undercover cops, decide to target A as well. They also fail.
e) Person A gets a name, say from person D.

How does A distinguish from this scenario (two failed NK attempts) and the other scenario? (No NK attempt, or perhaps, 1 failed NK attempt?)
Those seem equal to him, so person A might very well think person D is the doc, whereas he is in actuality a member of the rival mafia (as per the example).
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

I don't know if it is me the dumb me but your calculation of percantages doesn't do anything other than confusing me.

First of all the percentage of you being a bad cop has nothing to do with any of your actions. Just before the first night, we are all assigned a position, and if in the mail sent to you by muzz, you were told to be a cop, you were 100% sure that you were a cop at that point and you acted upon that. This is not something like calculating the possible success of Naz's plan.

From my understanding, if you are following my theory, you are in no way risking anything or depending on Lister being in that "magic 33%". You know that Smeg is not a cop, and you know that you can make him seem like a bad person (a cop likely) when he is dead. That is all you need actually, it doesn't matter if Lister is a towny, has a power role or is one of the opposing bad guys. This might only be an issue if Lister is one of the opposing mafia, drawing attention to your way from the remaining 2 of that group. Which has only a chance of 16%* to speak your way.

*Since when such a risk was taken, there were no deaths and you knew that there is a 3 out of 19 (22 - cops) chance that Lister is from the opposing mafia.

In my point of view your accusations were too hasty to be in favor of the town. Because you have completely rejected the option of Lister having a power role if he is not a drinker like yourself. And just from the start you proposed to be lynched yourself if Lister is not a bad guy. How you were so sure of yourself i couldn't understand, thus was the reason behind my reluctance aganist voting Lister.

However after reading Lister's reply and your so solid looking proposals i believed that in the worst case scenerio we lynch you the other day, thus my voting for Lister.

However than it occured to me that the bad cops ability can be used in such an occasion. I had to verify with Muzz that that ability was not only for the night kills first (I have unvoted Lister just at that point) and after i received a confirmation from muzz your insistence and self confidence forced me to open up this issue and cast my vote to the person i suspect the most.

I am a new player in this mafia games therefore i lack the background playstyles of the users however this should not effect my decision taking much in a game with everyone having different roles.
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Azador needs to start posting, or he'll be removed at the end of the day. (~ 7 hours from now)
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

You know, for someone that says that People are sheep, Liq is really trying to be the sheepherder.

Unvote Naz

Vote Liq
 
Re: OT: SPF mafia round 7 - Return to Salem

Goltar keeps claiming to have drunk, without even mentioning someone. This can be a good tactic, so as to let people come to their conclusions without first pointing a finger, but at the same time it seems a bit like saying afterwards `I told you so', a bit suspicious to say the least. At least tell the name, at least it seems it's not Azador either since he still did not post. (and thus will probably be modkilled)

As to Liquid's allegiations, since there is no point in denial anymore, yes I am mafia. I must add that I find his tactic of trying to get a vote for a fellow mafioso a bit odd. It might have worked if there was only one mafia clan, but with more than one the sheep seeing him as a townie is just not enough for our team to win.
 
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