Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

You should have saved yourself on nights 1 and 3. I've yet to see a more optimal strategy than the one that gets as close to the game theoretic optimum as possible (given the restrictions on how often you can save yourself). For those who are interested, when there are no restrictions on how often the doctor can save themselves, I think the optimal strategy is this:

• Save yourself on Night 1
• Continue to save yourself each night until the mafia target you (and you save yourself)
• After this point, save yorself with probability p and a random townie with probability (1-p)

This guarantees one townie is saved up until the point the mafia target you. The probability p needs to be chosen so that the mafia is indifferent between trying to kill you again and trying to kill someone else - because they feel their chances of being stopped are equal in each case.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Vote Tally:
Nolecub- 5 (MassiveSin, Erwwwd, Jaago, SiTro, Noammr)
Bob - 2 (Soylentred, friedbananazzzz)
MassiveSin - 1 (Aman)
friedbananazzzz - 1 (spigot)
ogogo on ice - 1 (Nolecub)

There are 12 people alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 8 to lock it in. There are just under three hours left in the day.

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

You should have saved yourself on nights 1 and 3. I've yet to see a more optimal strategy than the one that gets as close to the game theoretic optimum as possible (given the restrictions on how often you can save yourself).

Hind sight is not optimal, you need to work with the cards your delt.
I'd like your take on the Jaago quote I brought up and his response.

 

[Noammr]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Thanks for the tally, Ray.

Not everyone lives and dies by the mafia point system, Jaago...as to Sitro's post- you can't be sure everyone knows the optimal strategy for each role, so let's not make assumtions.

From where I stand the claim is believable...whether we choose to belive it and act accordingly is another matter. I'd like to see some more opinions on the matter. (I'd hate to lynch the doc, even if his lifespan is sure to be short after role claiming)

Nolecub- I hope you have a clear understanding of amans explenation on night 3 by now?

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I think you are looking too deeply into this jaago thing, he gave me a hint and i followed. The more this is brought up the more im sure my vote is correctly placed. I can see what Nolecub is doing and i like it.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Nothing hindsight about it. If he knew that strategy existed then he should either have implemented it or be able to state reasons why it is less than optimal and suggest a suitable alternative. If he didn't know about that strategy then it is regrettable indeed.

MassiveSin: You are discussing the quote Jaago brought up too much. You think that it is a hint of some kind whereas it is actually a statement. Jaago isn't actually saying anything about having a role of any kind, it's actually much simpler than that.

"I understand."

I believe Jaago can be trusted, despite any previous misgivings you may have had about him before. The previous night would have happened differently if he couldn't.

 

[Jaago]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Not everyone lives and dies by the mafia point system, Jaago...

I think that part of my post was sarchasm. I forgot to add the emoticon :tongue:.

 

[Noammr]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Could we have that explanation that aman asked for, Nolecub?

@Jaggo- Hah, makes more sense now. It must be my hostility to the chart, blinding me to anything else once the phrase 'mafia-points' is uttered :laugh:

 

[Nolecub]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

@ Sitro - Sorry, I am a selfless doc who would only protect myself when threatened. Night 3 was a stab in the dark due to no day activity.

@ Noammr - understood

@ Jaago - red handed? I will be vidicated by my lynch or my NK tonight

The only reason I saved myself last night was to make sure that the town knew of the misdirection.

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I'll consider it at face value, however as I stated to me it looks like 2 people claimed the same thing one directly and one through inference.
@ Aman: Then lynch me.
It will blow cannon holes in the points system since I'm number 2 as well as your logic upon my lynch. Can I offer you a wager on my pro town stance. I'll even offer you "Insert X here" of your choice if I show up Mafia, and if you are wrong change your sig to "Bring Smeg Back" for a week.
What do you say? *Extends hand to shake on it*

If you want people to consider more knowledge that you have spit it out, you have already spoiled your secret (if any) and let it be known of your power claim. You haven't been killed when with the doc (if Nolecub or not) make 2 role blockers. It is logical to make that 1 ASAP from their perspective. So your survival so far I credited to you targeting yourself last night and mafia not biting your bait. (Of course there could be reverse psychology and you didn't target yourself and target yourself tonight)

This is an interesting game none the less. But I am using what is on the table nothing more.

Unvote Nolecub
Vote friedbananazzzz

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I can up with a flawless plan to live forever, it is allready underway and there is no stopping me. I will win this game for the town.

I don't need to bet anything, you are acting suspicious i can place my vote where i please.

I will change my vote but it won't be for Nolecub. Put yourself in his postion what would you do?

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

*I came up

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

LOL... I see......... *took a 4th read*

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Put yourself in his postion what would you do?

Which is why I voted as I did

 

[BobTheWarrior]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Vote: friedbananazzzz

I see very little risk in believing Nolecubs claim based on who he claims to have saved, but great risk in lynching him. Therefore, I will vote for the 2nd most voted person (who is not myself) in hopes of still securing a lynch today.

Hopefully 2 hours is enough time.

 

[Nolecub]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Unvote: ogogo on ice

Vote: friedbananazzzz

 

[Jaago]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I am not a doctor, so I cannot directly disprove nolecub's claim. However, I can come close.

I am a white mage. I can target a person at night and that person is saved that night and the following night. I have a limited amount of uses for my ability.

I find it very unlikely that the town would have 2 players with roles that have healing powers. (talk about overpowered) Because I've got them, Nolecub quite clearly doesn't. His panicing speaks for this assumption.

I was going to wait for the cop to claim, but I can't see myself living much further unless I start using my ability. Aman, you're not the only one who's going to live forever.

 

[Nolecub]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

If you are telling the truth....who have you targeted?

Unvote: FBZ

Vote: Jaago

For those who doubt my claim...lynch me so that Jaago can be outed.

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I believe jaago more at this moment in time. Though we can't rule out you both beeing pro town.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Jaago I wish you hadn't claimed that, especially as you said yourself you can't disprove Nolecub's claim outright.

Despite aman's best efforts I think the mafia have won this one. GG.

The votes are 4-4 at the moment. I'll do what I must but we still need 2 more people to vote Fbzzzzzzzzzz. For the record I don't get much of a vibe either way from him.

Vote: Friedbananazzzz