Why?
A SK isn't compatible with the neutral win-con listed in post #1. It would mean the town can win even if a SK is still alive.
And why are you interested in finding neutrals over mafia?
Baldur's Gate Mafia Game
- Thread starter Solar Ice
- Start date
Why?
A SK isn't compatible with the neutral win-con listed in post #1. It would mean the town can win even if a SK is still alive.
And why are you interested in finding neutrals over mafia?
BipolarChemist
New member
Just throwing out alternatives
Let's say someone suspicious that is likely to be lynched was investigated by cop N1 and found innocent.
With this evidence to go on, the cop may risk suggesting they believe someone is innocent, like Sath (?) and Korial (?) did in the greek gods game. I may be remembering those wrong, but I distinctly remember finding the 2 cops and the doc immediately in that game, giving us a huge advantage, and the tell was what they said about 1 or 2 players very early on.
Just caught this.
So... Is Solar just mad about the SK win-con so he put this little difference in the rules, or is this proof of no SK?
BipolarChemist
New member
I guess we could say that SK could be anti-town since they would be trying to kill town, they would also be anti-anti-town, since they are trying to kill the anti-towns too. Frankly, with that logic, they should just kill themselves and be done with it all.
Hmm, was this just a copy/paste rule set SI?
Someitmes you can find connections between people or mafia slip-ups when talking about how a game works. Last game Phill pointed out that mafia were likely to be administration and not kids, which to me as town would have been a small flag (especially if more lynches had killed mafia). So I think talking about game set-up, even in theoreticals could be useful.
Also, missed the hint, which one were you talking about again?
I love the thought process on that one. Very interesting.
Wait, what, don't think that is what I said. I don't think it is a very large town advantage, but I do think that there can be some advantage to it if used properly. You think that it is set up to benefit the scum if we hunt the right one and benefit the scum if we lynch the wrong one? I find that unlikely.
There is still the possibility of accidental insertion of a clue. But I agree that it seems highly unlikely to put in a complete red herring.
Actually, I remember that from the Cheers mafia game, where mafia tried to get suspicious townies using the second lynch. A possibility that occurred to me where this could be of good use to the town is if there is a one shot lynch immune mafia. If we don't have 2 good targets, we use both on the same person.
SI, can the power be used to double lynch the same person?
Also, missed a quote in there: coju, do you have a better explanation for hunting TC than the one you posted? I didn't really follow why you thought he was the one.
In that game you got kills off on the cop and role-cop. Not lynches.
FredOfErik
New member
Assuming random lynches and 16 town and 6 scum (with your definitions, not unreasonable):
0,53
0,4
0,07
town/town: 0,73*0,73
town/scum: 0,27*0,73*2
scum/scum: 0,27*0,27
town/scum: 0,27*0,73*2
scum/scum: 0,27*0,27
Taking away part of the randomness by adding the factor of town's ability to scumhunt and adding the benefit of gaining information earlier than usually possible, I would definitely be in favor of two lynches.
FredOfErik
New member
That's what I meant. We used their behaviour regarding players to kill them immediately and it was an easy read for us. I don't think i implied we lynched them, so probably just a hiccup in your reading.
Solar Ice
Well-known member
If I included a clue in the Dragonhunt story and then did not say anything regarding there being a clue in the storyline beforehand, your question would have some validity.
All game rules are clear.
The problem with this is that first you didn't adjust your math to account for the probability changing on the second choice (minor issue) but mostly that you're suggesting mafia are unlikely to stall or disagree in some way on lynching a mafia in one of those. This early on, it's pretty easy to choose a target and be stubborn and call it a day, avoiding having to palce your vote on a fellow mafia, and perhaps getting another townie lynched instead.
BipolarChemist
New member
As someone who took a statistics course years ago and doesn't remember much, I can confirm this!
FredOfErik
New member
You are absolutely correct on the first point, which however, as you say wouldn't change the numbers much - and decreases the chance of lynching town/town.
The second point is also correct, however I don't see how that would be different from a normal single D1 lynch?
My apologies, mine was a poorly worded question. It was not meant as an accusation, I just remembered that has happened before, and figured it was worth checking. It makes sense that the later specific statement overrides the general rule from the first post, and I figured that was how it was meant, but I wanted to make sure.
I typed in my own answer earlier but my phone app crashes like 1/5 posts I attempt from it.
Trying to take into account gut feeling on the likelihood of these lynches, and excusing the possibility of SK or other anti-town neutral (what other kinds are there?) I would estimate the chances something like the following:
T/T: 85%
T/A: 12%
A/A: 3%
I think the chance of 2 anti-town is a bit better than statistics would show because of the connections that can be made by catching people refusing. That being said, I still highly doubt it would happen. With all the confusion of trying to make 2 lynches in one day, with little evidence to go off of, I think it will be easy for mafia to direct the town (or not be directed by the town) so that 2 townies are lynched.
If there is Sk or other neutral that wins anti to the town win-con, then I would probably lower T/T by about 20% and raise T/A, and A/A by 18 and 2% respectively.
These is all gut estimates on how I think things could play out.
Just throwing out alternatives
Should town focus on those alternatives even if they exist?
Not quite an applicable scenario. The statements made by Sathoris and Leo that game were not statements made by a cop with any result. Sathoris wasn't a cop and Leo didn't use her investigation the previous night. Their statements were not made because of their role and could have been said even if they were VT. The other cop (Gwaihir) was killed before any day/twilght phase occurred.
But this is all an aside...
How does an extra lynch help mafia's ability to find (out) power roles in the manner you discuss? Your answer appears to be possible regardless of any extra lynch. No extra lynch in the Greek Gods game...
If it's proof of anything it's that a SK would be considered anti-town rather than neutral. It's far more correct than labeling SKs as neutral.
Then I was remembering wrong. Good point.
I was thinking more along the lines that a cop may be easily seen by the mafia for how they behave if their (innocent) target is about to be lynched that day. This would mean mafia can kill that cop the following night before the cop could get another investigation. It's kinda backwards and silly now that I think about it, but what I was trying to say was that the cop would be known by the time it made one investigation (perhaps) and 2 lynches were made, whereas if the lynches are spaced out one at a time then by the time 2 are lynched, the cop has 2 investigations under their belt. The thought that just occurred to me is that mafia would also have 2 kills, so my point it kinda moot.
You can share your thoughts, you know.
If I could I would, but I can't so I shan't.
