Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
(since i can't edit. -.-)
(since i can't edit. -.-)
Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
- Thread starter Uraj
- Start date
CoolguyBad
New member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Geez, I sleep in a bit, stay in my room playing LA Noire (whilst trying to catch Mafia baddies in it) and wake up to this huh?
It's both rare and strange to see a NK in the first morning. Would there be any reason for the mafia members to purposefully skip the first kill? Would that actually be an useful strategy?
Geez, I sleep in a bit, stay in my room playing LA Noire (whilst trying to catch Mafia baddies in it) and wake up to this huh?
It's both rare and strange to see a NK in the first morning. Would there be any reason for the mafia members to purposefully skip the first kill? Would that actually be an useful strategy?
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Probably because I haven't been online to claim the doctor yet?
I agree, it feels like cheating and the results are inconclusive at best anyway.
As good as any really. A 5,25~% chance (math off the top of my head, may be off).
How do you reason that a kill not being sent in is more likely than a 5,25~% chance of a doctor save PLUS all the other possibilities Feysal listed, and another one that I'm adding to the list at the end of my post?
Faulty logic. I'll keep my random vote on you.
*dun dun duh...* Recruitment?
Probably because I haven't been online to claim the doctor yet?
I agree, it feels like cheating and the results are inconclusive at best anyway.
As good as any really. A 5,25~% chance (math off the top of my head, may be off).
How do you reason that a kill not being sent in is more likely than a 5,25~% chance of a doctor save PLUS all the other possibilities Feysal listed, and another one that I'm adding to the list at the end of my post?
Faulty logic. I'll keep my random vote on you.
*dun dun duh...* Recruitment?
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Doctor.
I was about to say it's been a while since we had a game with 3 factions. Then I remembered the last two games had 3 factions. I chalk up that mental misstep to the extreme subtleties of the third party in each game.
A simple townie would have to visit the site during the night to know they were a simple townie. Only those who didn't check in at all before the day started would be caught by this investigation. A vanilla townie not checking in won't make much gameplay difference. A power role not checking in results in the loss of that ability that night because there is no backup.
A mafioso not checking in still has backup - other mafia. Someone may be the designated hitman, but other mafia should still be able to send in the target. Because mafia have backup while townies don't, I conclude that this investigative route (checking on activity history) is more likely to catch a pro-town power role than mafia.
My game didn't have a doc, though you were killed rather early in that one. I find docs weak so I gave the obligatory doc roleblocking powers as well. Jailkeeper was much more thematic anyway.
Do you believe any of the early posters intentionally avoided using the term doctor?
Doctor.
I was about to say it's been a while since we had a game with 3 factions. Then I remembered the last two games had 3 factions. I chalk up that mental misstep to the extreme subtleties of the third party in each game.
A simple townie would have to visit the site during the night to know they were a simple townie. Only those who didn't check in at all before the day started would be caught by this investigation. A vanilla townie not checking in won't make much gameplay difference. A power role not checking in results in the loss of that ability that night because there is no backup.
A mafioso not checking in still has backup - other mafia. Someone may be the designated hitman, but other mafia should still be able to send in the target. Because mafia have backup while townies don't, I conclude that this investigative route (checking on activity history) is more likely to catch a pro-town power role than mafia.
My game didn't have a doc, though you were killed rather early in that one. I find docs weak so I gave the obligatory doc roleblocking powers as well. Jailkeeper was much more thematic anyway.
Do you believe any of the early posters intentionally avoided using the term doctor?
Technomancer
New member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Also, Noodle, I thought you and BA had the thing. You and Gorny too?
Wow, I had too much drinkey and opening last night! Those should be reversed, lol!
Also, Noodle, I thought you and BA had the thing. You and Gorny too?
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
I overlooked nothing. In my experience, mafia are most easily caught by noting what they DON'T talk about. In this game, as I mentioned in post #18, a number of players chose to deviate from their own established gameplay to actively avoid using the term doctor. I'm convinced at least one is mafia but I would lay better than even odds more than one mafioso exists among those posting before Feysal.
Fine. Let's create a cron job to fire off a selenium script to check user profiles and Currently Active Users list every 30 seconds. Save the results to a database, then post the summary as the daily substantive contribution post. A moderate usage of technology removes the need to actually play the game.
We have, literally, no game information other than no night kill. What has caused no night kills in the past? Most of the common ones have been mentioned already. In my opinion, the most common reason for no night kill is a doc. Second is a roleblocker. Third is game mechanics (no N1 kill allowed, global roleblock, only cult is left, etc). Fourth is other role mechanics (immune to NK).
People say mafia have failed to send in their kill before, though I have never seen it personally.
No kill allowed Night 1 is possible, but that hasn't happened without the mod giving us a day start or explicitly telling us no N1 kill will happen. Therefore, I feel comfortable eliminating that possibility at this time.
Assuming you meant "rare and strange to NOT see a NK..."
Not sending in a kill as a useful strategy should require a whole lot more knowledge than is available N1. To put it another way, if mafia already know enough to strategize not sending in a kill, then the town has a deep hole to climb out of. While I think it's more likely mafia intentionally not send in a kill than do so on accident, I can't imagine either happening N1. I would think they wait until a roleblocker is known and play the odds confuzzling the roleblocker.
Now that I have answered your question, I just thought I'd mention I asked a similar question my first game as mafia. Was the unvote too soon?
I overlooked nothing. In my experience, mafia are most easily caught by noting what they DON'T talk about. In this game, as I mentioned in post #18, a number of players chose to deviate from their own established gameplay to actively avoid using the term doctor. I'm convinced at least one is mafia but I would lay better than even odds more than one mafioso exists among those posting before Feysal.
Fine. Let's create a cron job to fire off a selenium script to check user profiles and Currently Active Users list every 30 seconds. Save the results to a database, then post the summary as the daily substantive contribution post. A moderate usage of technology removes the need to actually play the game.
We have, literally, no game information other than no night kill. What has caused no night kills in the past? Most of the common ones have been mentioned already. In my opinion, the most common reason for no night kill is a doc. Second is a roleblocker. Third is game mechanics (no N1 kill allowed, global roleblock, only cult is left, etc). Fourth is other role mechanics (immune to NK).
People say mafia have failed to send in their kill before, though I have never seen it personally.
No kill allowed Night 1 is possible, but that hasn't happened without the mod giving us a day start or explicitly telling us no N1 kill will happen. Therefore, I feel comfortable eliminating that possibility at this time.
Assuming you meant "rare and strange to NOT see a NK..."
Not sending in a kill as a useful strategy should require a whole lot more knowledge than is available N1. To put it another way, if mafia already know enough to strategize not sending in a kill, then the town has a deep hole to climb out of. While I think it's more likely mafia intentionally not send in a kill than do so on accident, I can't imagine either happening N1. I would think they wait until a roleblocker is known and play the odds confuzzling the roleblocker.
Now that I have answered your question, I just thought I'd mention I asked a similar question my first game as mafia. Was the unvote too soon?
CoolguyBad
New member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Since this is my first game here, asking questions is always good, no?=P
Since this is my first game here, asking questions is always good, no?=P
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
You meanies.
Good luck dude. If you make it to the final table, you need to fly us all there in November to cheer for you.
That reminds me of Leo's and Mara's werewolf game. Zhao was the werewolf and he could either kill or recruit two extra people.
Indeedâ„¢
It seems that my subconscious must have voted TC while I was sleeping last night,must have been because of my desire to strangle him last game
Oh good god, don't remind me about last game. I'm half tempted to vote TC based solely on that trainwreck.
You meanies.
Good luck dude. If you make it to the final table, you need to fly us all there in November to cheer for you.
That reminds me of Leo's and Mara's werewolf game. Zhao was the werewolf and he could either kill or recruit two extra people.
Indeedâ„¢
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Nobody's stopping you from actually checking. By all means compile a list of people who didn't log in and might fail to send in a kill. Just suggesting it and advocating for it doesn't do anything.
Personally I don't think it'll help in the slightest. Too much variables to deduct anything logically out of it. Besides do you really think the mafia would rely on the hitman to send in the kill if he wasn't online yet.
Whatever the reason for no NK we can't proof any or find out anything. Doc is most likely but that doesn't tell us anything so I'm gonna drop it.
Dear god don't mention the R word!
Technomancer #32 is a little too casual. Nervous scum worried about his NK failing perhaps.
Marahumm seems a bit too eager to check online statuses of players, but if he's scum and interested in possible PRs he could just check for himself and not mention anything to us.
But then again Noodle did something similar last game with Ankeli so Marahumm might have just slipped and not thought of checking himself.
Gorny is doing his best to be active but not mention anything game related. Same as last game. Sure you have on opinion about something, eh?
Unvote: Ankeli
Vote: Gorny
Nobody's stopping you from actually checking. By all means compile a list of people who didn't log in and might fail to send in a kill. Just suggesting it and advocating for it doesn't do anything.
Personally I don't think it'll help in the slightest. Too much variables to deduct anything logically out of it. Besides do you really think the mafia would rely on the hitman to send in the kill if he wasn't online yet.
Whatever the reason for no NK we can't proof any or find out anything. Doc is most likely but that doesn't tell us anything so I'm gonna drop it.
Dear god don't mention the R word!
Technomancer #32 is a little too casual. Nervous scum worried about his NK failing perhaps.
Marahumm seems a bit too eager to check online statuses of players, but if he's scum and interested in possible PRs he could just check for himself and not mention anything to us.
But then again Noodle did something similar last game with Ankeli so Marahumm might have just slipped and not thought of checking himself.
Gorny is doing his best to be active but not mention anything game related. Same as last game. Sure you have on opinion about something, eh?
Unvote: Ankeli
Vote: Gorny
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Right, the one where I was killed N0. I never really got to play that one, so I forgot about it.
I don't think they were specifically avoiding mentioning a doctor, but that they seemed a bit too eager to jump on Asrrin's theory of no kill being sent, without adding their own thoughts and theories. It amounts to pretty much the same though.
Right, the one where I was killed N0. I never really got to play that one, so I forgot about it.
I don't think they were specifically avoiding mentioning a doctor, but that they seemed a bit too eager to jump on Asrrin's theory of no kill being sent, without adding their own thoughts and theories. It amounts to pretty much the same though.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
What is that, a cross between a kitten and a gremlin?
What is that, a cross between a kitten and a gremlin?
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
The reason I thought of a missed night kill is because it happened in my very own game! And I didn't play Mafia while I was away from the forums, so to me my most recent mafia game other than TC's last game was that one, so it's still fresh in my mind. Also, I thought of a predetermined missed night kill as well because I was tossing around that possibility for my own game.
Only two roles I know of are able to prevent a night kill outright. a protection role (aka doc.) or a roleblocker. so the chances that a power role prevented a kill are roughly 10%-12%, based on figures already mentioned here. I just personally think that my two idea are more likely. A Doc or roleblocker could easily be the reason why, but it's useless to speculate on that until at the very least next day phase, because if it happened to be a roleblocker, and they happened to block the hitman, then we would have some solid information to lynch someone.
The reason I thought of a missed night kill is because it happened in my very own game! And I didn't play Mafia while I was away from the forums, so to me my most recent mafia game other than TC's last game was that one, so it's still fresh in my mind. Also, I thought of a predetermined missed night kill as well because I was tossing around that possibility for my own game.
Only two roles I know of are able to prevent a night kill outright. a protection role (aka doc.) or a roleblocker. so the chances that a power role prevented a kill are roughly 10%-12%, based on figures already mentioned here. I just personally think that my two idea are more likely. A Doc or roleblocker could easily be the reason why, but it's useless to speculate on that until at the very least next day phase, because if it happened to be a roleblocker, and they happened to block the hitman, then we would have some solid information to lynch someone.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Seriously? Every game I've ever played with Gorny, and he's done this regardless of whether he is town or anti-town. To vote someone on such a flimsy read... Are you just trying to get rid of strong players? sounds scummy to me.
Unvote: Zarniwoop
Vote: Sathoris
Seriously? Every game I've ever played with Gorny, and he's done this regardless of whether he is town or anti-town. To vote someone on such a flimsy read... Are you just trying to get rid of strong players? sounds scummy to me.
Unvote: Zarniwoop
Vote: Sathoris
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Are you 100% sure about that?
Seriously now, this is Uraj's first game hosted in here. Which means we have no idea of what games he might host and which mechanics he might use. For all we know, he could have invented roles/mechanics that we can't even imagine at this point.
Are you 100% sure about that?
Seriously now, this is Uraj's first game hosted in here. Which means we have no idea of what games he might host and which mechanics he might use. For all we know, he could have invented roles/mechanics that we can't even imagine at this point.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Oh please don't start that again! you and you percentages!
Uraj did say he wanted to do a fairly vanilla game of Mafia, so take that for what it's worth.
Oh please don't start that again! you and you percentages!
Uraj did say he wanted to do a fairly vanilla game of Mafia, so take that for what it's worth.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Sigh, twas just to get gorny talking about it. Incase you didn't notice last game. I always place votes on people to get them talking about it.
Now mine wasn't adressed to you, but you reacted nonetheless...
Techno, Gorny, Asrrin scumteam.
Sigh, twas just to get gorny talking about it. Incase you didn't notice last game. I always place votes on people to get them talking about it.
Now mine wasn't adressed to you, but you reacted nonetheless...
Techno, Gorny, Asrrin scumteam.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
You think a preplanned no kill, even though we're starting with a nightphase and the idea that the mafia forgot to send in a kill are more likely than a doc save or roleblock?
You know something?
You think a preplanned no kill, even though we're starting with a nightphase and the idea that the mafia forgot to send in a kill are more likely than a doc save or roleblock?
You know something?
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Good luck dude. If you make it to the final table, you need to fly us all there in November to cheer for you.
/QUOTE]
OT: Haha I am not doing the main event...yet. I have enough for 2 smaller tournies, so when I win one of THOSE, THEN I'll win the main event woohoo /OT
As good as any really. A 5,25~% chance (math off the top of my head, may be off).
How do you reason that a kill not being sent in is more likely than a 5,25~% chance of a doctor save PLUS all the other possibilities Feysal listed, and another one that I'm adding to the list at the end of my post?
Faulty logic. I'll keep my random vote on you.
*dun dun duh...* Recruitment?
Because in games I have played in I have seen a missed opportunity more times than a N1 doc save. The other possibilities wouldn't leave us in the dark with no information and even a doc (sometimes) has some story mixed in which can arguably drop that number lower than 5%. I dont think you know how rare 5% is and we have inactive players almost every game.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Factoring in a possible role blocker, a bus driver switch to a blocked player etc. would increase the percentage closer to 15. I'd say 15% is more likely than 3-4 mafia members all being offline for the night period.
Factoring in a possible role blocker, a bus driver switch to a blocked player etc. would increase the percentage closer to 15. I'd say 15% is more likely than 3-4 mafia members all being offline for the night period.
