Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I'm not and I won't be. I once did that by accident, and realized that way that Ankeli could not be mafia. It felt like cheating, and I don't intend to do it again on purpose.

Besides, I'm rather surprised by the number of people making the assumption that the mafia missed their kill. Loz, Asrrin, TC, Bad Ash, Marahumm... you're all veterans at this. You know there can be other explanations for a missing death. For the benefit of our first time players, I'll name a few: successful doctor, successful role blocker, bulletproof target, successful bus driver together with any of the aforementioned. In fact, I consider the possibility of mafia missing their kill to be very low. I cannot recall a single time in any of my games where the mafia would've forgotten to send a kill. Even though it was the first night, I find it hard to believe that the entire mafia team had somehow missed it.

There is also the possibility that the mafia were simply not allowed to kill on the first night, and we only had a night phase for other power roles to do their thing - whether they are town or not.

But I did mention the possibility of a pre-determined outcome, see my first post. Yes, granted any number of abilities could have caused a no kill night, but the two most likely ways of having a no- night kill are either it was pre-determined to fail or not happen the first night, or the mafia did not phone in.

And Goryani, what "D" word are you referring to?

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I've seen at least two games where mafia failed to send in the NK PM. For all we know, they could have a x% chance for a successful kill.

OT: For the first time (I think) I got two of my games in the similar threads section, woohoo.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

At least I get to unpack my bags in peace, and enjoy at least one day at the resort.

Did you not make a long term reservation or might you have to leave on "business" if your associates call?

At least there's showers and towels and hot & cold running chambermaids in the rooms.

I'm all for hot chambermaids, but I prefer them not running away. Easier to inspect their work. Yeah. That's it.

I can't do this effectively on my phone, but is anyone looking at user profiles, looking for whoever hasn't been active from the beginning of the night phase until now? Might give us a nice clue as to who might have not sent in a night action in time.

A little birdie once told me you practice that very behavior. However, in the context, it was mentioned that as mafia you like to see who else has power roles so you could eliminate them early.

I must admit, the passive aggressive prodding plus the carefully crafted message to not mention any particular roles (so you can't be accused of rolefishing) plus the obvious neglecting of higher probability scenarios isn't making you appear town to me.

Unvote: CoolguyBad
Vote: Marahumm

Hope I have all the correct spelling and such. If not, I'll correct it after Yet Another Graduation I'm headed to.

successful bus driver together with any of the aforementioned.

Feysal must be mafia if he knows a bus driver switch happened! Sorry. Wrong game.

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

First off, the rules state that names do not need to be spelled correctly in this game. Pretty sure its bolded.

Also, anything could have happened to cause no nk, it is all guesswork, I have played in many games where many things have happened (including people not sending it in) so I dont think its so off based for anyone to think this is a possibility

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Did you not make a long term reservation or might you have to leave on "business" if your associates call?

No, I just am glad that we had a nice peaceful day today, and judging from the fact that we have mafia among us, I can tell that there won't be many of these peaceful days. Unless we are playing a cult only game (heaven help us!!!) we can probably look forward to night kills. So I'm enjoying the peaceful retreat while it lasts.

and oh snap! I just saw that Uraj made me vote for somebody. Do I feel a scummy vibe coming from Zarniwoop?

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I think Col. Mustard did it in the library with the candlestick.

 

[zarniwoop]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

No, I just am glad that we had a nice peaceful day today, and judging from the fact that we have mafia among us, I can tell that there won't be many of these peaceful days. Unless we are playing a cult only game (heaven help us!!!) we can probably look forward to night kills. So I'm enjoying the peaceful retreat while it lasts.

and oh snap! I just saw that Uraj made me vote for somebody. Do I feel a scummy vibe coming from Zarniwoop?

Totally scummy. But, that's what showers are for.

With 19 people, I would expect at least 3 factions. I'm really surprised that not a single thing happened. At least not a single fatal thing.

 

[Feysal]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

(?) I missed the part where I made an assumption that the mafia had missed their kill. (?)

Fair enough, you did say that someone forgot to die, not that someone forgot to kill.

So you are 99% certain they were not inactive, yet think checking profiles would give the town an unfair advantage? Interesting.

I am not against spying on whether players were active because it would give an advantage to one side, but because I think it is against the spirit of the game.

And besides, I don't think the mafia were inactive anyway, so checking who was active would not only be useless, it could lead us astray. Suppose a simple townie did not visit the site during the night, because his role did not come with an action that would require him to?

So, I disagree on spying on players on general principle, and I also think doing so would lead us on a wild goose chase.

Bottom line is, we don't know why no one died last night. I don't see an obvious way of finding out either. Even if we knew what powers were used and on whom, that would only narrow down possibilities somewhat and not conclusively point at anyone.

I believe that a successful doctor is the most likely scenario, for the simple reason that there is always a doctor. I've never been in a game without one on this site. Therefore, it could be safe for a doctor to assume that whoever he targeted was also targeted by the mafia, and therefore probably town. If there is a role blocker, he could target the same player again, and if there is still no mafia kill, then it will start to look more likely he lucked out and blocked the hitman.

For now, though I named a number of people believing the mafia missed their kill, my opinions of them differ. Asrrin was the first to voice that theory, and he did mention another possibility too. Marahumm made a constructive suggestion based on that theory, one I don't agree with, but still. That leaves TC and Bad Ash, both of whom were sheeping Asrrin's theory without adding much of note. TC's comment about the mafia being confused about Uraj's counter looked genuine enough though, so of the people who've posted so far, I suspect Bad Ash most.

Of course we've yet to hear from half of the playerlist, so I think I'll keep my random stage vote on Krazeyivan for now. I never did get him back for that godawful blunder of his.

 

[Marahumm]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

A little birdie once told me you practice that very behavior. However, in the context, it was mentioned that as mafia you like to see who else has power roles so you could eliminate them early.

I must admit, the passive aggressive prodding plus the carefully crafted message to not mention any particular roles (so you can't be accused of rolefishing) plus the obvious neglecting of higher probability scenarios isn't making you appear town to me.

You seem to be overlooking other posts verifying that a failure of a night 1 kill has indeed happened in past games. Given that at the moment we have nothing else to work with, checking out profiles for inactivity could potentially give us a list of suspects. If it turns out everyone has logged in, we can pretty much rule out the idea that the mafia forgot to send in an nk and move on. Forgive me, sir, for trying to narrow down suspects.

On another note, passive-aggressive is my style. If you don't like it, I'll be happy to take into consideration other playstyles you might suggest.

 

[Kraz3yIvan]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Lovin the resort nice and peaceful for a change!

@Feysal - successful doctor most likely? Thats a pretty good guess by a doc with this many people in the game

I'm not jumping to any conclusions as to what happened - bottom line it was a good result for the town. Now if you'll excuse me its bedtime (or in game world - I'm off to find me some fit ladies at the pool!)

 

[Feysal]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

@Feysal - successful doctor most likely? Thats a pretty good guess by a doc with this many people in the game.

With 19 players in game, the odds that a doctor would guess correctly is 1/18, or about 6%. And yes, I think that is most likely, simply because I find other scenarios even less likely. Except perhaps the idea that the mafia was not allowed to kill on night one. That is trying to outguess the mod, and I have no idea how likely that scenario would be.

 

[Technomancer]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

YAWN! Morning all! *scratches butt*

So no kill last night? I guess that sounds like that's a pretty rare occurrence. Hopefully this is a good sign! Last time was a month-long train wreck for Town!

I have a hard time imagining Mafia "forgetting" to kill someone. :badteeth: For them to target someone that also got protected somehow seems like a real long shot too though. I'm not even qualified to decode this one, I'll let you pros discuss it more.

Last time we had tons of rules and mechanics to discuss, but this seems like we're right into the fire fight!

Anyway:
:wave: LoZ! *crosshairs*
:wave: Mara! *ducks*

 

[Technomancer]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Also, here's to hoping no one tries to sell us a Time Share!!

 

[Laarz]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

It seems that my subconscious must have voted TC while I was sleeping last night,must have been because of my desire to strangle him last game you could be right Mara but all that would give us is active or not active What would you do, lynch people that weren't active?

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Oh good god, don't remind me about last game. I'm half tempted to vote TC based solely on that trainwreck.

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Lovin the resort nice and peaceful for a change!

@Feysal - successful doctor most likely? Thats a pretty good guess by a doc with this many people in the game

I'm not jumping to any conclusions as to what happened - bottom line it was a good result for the town. Now if you'll excuse me its bedtime (or in game world - I'm off to find me some fit ladies at the pool!)

This is the reason why I believe that a kill wasn't sent in and always will until given real facts in games with no first night kill. Obv. there are other options, but I play the odds. Thats also why I am going to vegas in 5 weeks to win me some WSOP money fools.

Anyways the one thing I do agree with Feysal on is the profile checking. I think it is a very cheap tactic that can lead the town into chaos with false information. Buried deep somewhere is this opinion when it was used by others.

To each their own, the profile checking is moot because people who want to will, just know it doesnt incriminate or clear anyone 100%

 

[Caluin Graye]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

With 19 players in game, the odds that a doctor would guess correctly is 1/18, or about 6%.

In past games on this forum, I have noted the doctor was able to protect his/herself, though usually with some restriction like 'must protect someone different the next night'. Assuming the same thing here, that lowers the odds a little bit (admittedly, less than half a percent), and in the cases of those past games, the doctor had usually opted to protect themselves in the first night, with self-preservation being a person's strongest instinct and all that.

My point is, the most likely scenario is probably the worst for us, since if my assumptions are correct, the mafia have likely realized they were stopped by the doctor, who had no reason to protect anyone but him/herself, and will target that person again. Then we're without one of our power roles.

Of course, that's all assuming no bus drivers or anything were involved, but that lowers the already stupidly low odds of what actually occurred.

I know. I'm an optimist.

By the way; where can I order one of those chambermaids? I only had some backwater, hillbilly yokel that slurred a name that might have been 'Bubba.' Oh, and if anyone meeting that description asks for me, then you haven't seen me.

 

[Leopold Stotch]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

*walks in with cup of warm coffee*

*looks over at Gorny*

any sugar or milk?

At least there's showers and towels and hot & cold running chambermaids in the rooms.

I was half-expecting some kind of "Deliverance" back-woods wooden shack.

oh, gawd no! lol!!

But mostly, I am concerned about wifi and mobile phone reception, out here in the boonies.

Verizon. or at least Verizon works for me when i go to the woods and no one else has a signal.

I can't do this effectively on my phone, but is anyone looking at user profiles, looking for whoever hasn't been active from the beginning of the night phase until now? Might give us a nice clue as to who might have not sent in a night action in time.

idk, hun. i don't like this idea because:

1.) what if i wasn't active last night? you know i work late on these days and that might get me an excuse, but it looks suspicious to others. and im positive others work late or play WoW (ahemGornyahem) or do whatever. just because someone is inactive doesn't mean that they are mafia.

2.) the above rule can apply to someone who WAS active last night. i WAS because i had personal business on here last night and Bad Ash is on at least every night because he's a mod in the D3 Community, as well as a couple of others. im sure we all do different things on here besides mafia game business.

3.) it's not cheating per se, but... wasn't there a hassle about this one time (i think it was before i had joined, but i remember Mara telling me about it) where people would check out each other's profiles and see who visited last but the problem was it was the last ten visitors and the fact there was no time stamp on it (nothing like, "Leopold Stotch visited this profile at 21:39 Yesterday") how useful was it?

inactive, active, visitors... we can't really narrow it down this way.

Hope I have all the correct spelling and such. If not, I'll correct it after Yet Another Graduation I'm headed to.

it's that time of year.

Also, here's to hoping no one tries to sell us a Time Share!!

:rolf:

This is the reason why I believe that a kill wasn't sent in and always will until given real facts in games with no first night kill. Obv. there are other options, but I play the odds. Thats also why I am going to vegas in 5 weeks to win me some WSOP money fools.

hey, im going this weekend to Vegas! :highfive:

To each their own, the profile checking is moot because people who want to will, just know it doesnt incriminate or clear anyone 100%

exactly!

By the way; where can I order one of those chambermaids? I only had some backwater, hillbilly yokel that slurred a name that might have been 'Bubba.' Oh, and if anyone meeting that description asks for me, then you haven't seen me.

i may be from Tejas, but that was so not me! not even drunk do i do that bull-****. lol!

 

[Gorny1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

*Throws milk + sugar at Leo*

 

[Leopold Stotch]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

MEEEEOOOOOWWWW!!!