OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

Well that sucks for Jrlafrance.

And why no prisonner? To me, there can only be 2 reasons.

1. We should all buy lottery tickets because we we're lucky enough to smack the crooked cop on our first lynch

2. Only 2 mafia members voted for the murder while the crooked detective wasn't active.
 
Care to explain your vote Rash? It's probably just me having missed something while catching up, but I didn't expect you to throw out a vote without providing your arguments. In fact, you've mentioned people as suspects for doing that.
 
I don't get the mafia's strategy here. Are they deliberately not taking out the people that we think are the VI?

@GoHabsGo: I think it's more likely that they are playing mind games with us, trying to make us think we got the detective when we really didn't.
 
Rashiminos said:
Vote: Sir Lister of Smeg
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Bandwagoning again, eh? Seriously though, you could have repeated your reasoning or given a link to that post from day 2. It's always annoying to search a needle from a pile of hay.

Too bad to hear about Jrla. This pretty much confirms he was a townie as we thought.

3rd reason for not taking anyone into custody: Saving it for later when it might become necessary to have a certain person detained.

Vote Moar. It's about time.



 
Rashiminos said:
Vote: Sir Lister of Smeg
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Running against me for Village Idiot, are you? Well, I'll not be defeated so easily!

*Puts in a write-in vote for the squid*

In all seriousness, you of all people should know to add on at least a bit of a reason, even if you've already given one before....are you trying to look suspicious? And on that note, Jaago, can you give a quick rehash of what you're thinking for your vote?

Other matters: RIP jrlafrance...I didn't see that one coming, personally, but it does seem like an odd choice to me. Only explanation I can think of is that it's aimed at framing me or Brak, since we both voiced suspicions of him, but even then, that seems like a pretty weak move.

I'm pretty sure the fact that no one was detained last night means nothing, as xduckster and Jaago mentioned...now, if no one gets detained for the next five nights, then we can talk about the crooked detective possibly being out of play.



 
It indeed blows we lost Jrla. I must confess I laughed at the way he was killed, but it seems we lost someone who had better reasoning behind his posts then others. Give me a few hours and I'll make another vote vs postcount vs other stuff again. Also I'll take a look in who has had ''contact'' with Jrla.

As for Jae being the crooked detective. That would be too good to be true.. I think..

I'll work on data before I vote. I want to see everyone post before that anyway, so..
 
So basically what you're saying is that you don't really know why you're voting for her? You're just following the crowd?
 
Jaago said:
What stunning reasoning. You're absolutely right, I should probably go and hang myself already.
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:scratch: I wonder if there are any rules against suicide.

The reason I said that is because the way you worded your post it just seemed very impersonal and almost like it's not something you looked at yourself, just things you were seeing either people post. Also, the fact that you said I voted for her yesterday. I would have been ok with "look at my reasoning for voting for her yesterday" but the way you said it just rubbed me the wrong way.



 
Okay I changed my table a bit, above you'll see #post/vote 1 which stands for the number of posts and the vote on day 1. I'll try and make one of these at the start of every day and if interesting half-way trough too. Give me a minute or so to update everything from day 3 (so far). After that I'll make another post and see if I can draw some conclusions out of it (there is also some unvoting etc that needs to be taken into consideration).

Code: 
Name -- 	#post/vote 1 -- 	#post/vote 2 -- 	#post/vote 3
Thy     	4, rev           	3, jae			-, -
cyg     	4, rev           	10, jae			-, -
jrla    	6, rev           	8, rev			dead
rev     	5, rash          	7, jae			1, -
skunk   	3, nikon         	5, rev			-, -
muzz    	7, rev          	1, rev			2, -
rash    	xx, jaago        	xx, jae			1, lister
goltar  	10, rev          	6, jae			-, -
xduck   	3, CDRT          	4, -			4, -
drixx   	4, rev           	dead			dead
brak    	7, jaago         	15, jae			-, -
moar    	4, drixx         	4, jae			-, -
jaago   	6, rev           	8, jae			4, moar
nikon   	10, -            	6, jae			-, -
gohab   	3, -             	8, rash			1, -
w_m     	3, -             	4, rash			-, -
touch  		4, jaago         	2, rev			-, -
sint    	4, brak          	8, jae			1, -
jae     	3, -             	3, rev			dead
lister		missing from table	3, rev			-, -
sitro   	5, -			4, jae			-, -
CDRT    	2, -             	prison			-, -
 
Last edited:
Moar said:
Now that I have read the thread again, I agree that we should not pass on the chance to lynch. The problem is just to know who to lynch. There's definitely not enough information available to make a qualified decission.
Right now the risk of picking someone innocent is too high for my taste.

Hmm...I'm off to work now. I hope I can read the forums there, haven't tried it yet.
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I even bolded the essence for you.

Moar said:
And what's with Drixx first advocating not to lynch and now voting for someone out of the blue. This sounds the most suspicious to me.

Vote Drixx
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The thing is, you had already done the same before Drixx, and she still went after him. (Making you two possible partners-in-crime)

Moar said:
Time to play some nethack and ponder, methinks.
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:wink2:

Hope that clears things up.



 
One other possibility for the CrookedCop: he/she might've simply not picked someone, just to throw us off. That's a technique the mafia certainly employed in round two, on at least one occasion, and two if memory serves.

As I indicated in my last post "yesterday" (on Friday, I think, in real-life time), I am quite suspicious of Rash at this point (and especially after his early and blunt vote today). And I remain suspicious of RK. But I'm not prepared to vote for anyone yet.
 
Ok, now let's see if I can make some reasoning out of this. It will most likely be less then that last time I did. Note that the following reasoning is based purely on the table, nothing on the posting etc. I just try to make some analyses that can help later on in the ''real'' reasoning. Also, note that I have taken in the votes and vote changes from post #374 (my last table) onwards. That means that I might say that someone has changed their vote once, while it may be 3 times. It would probably be good to reflect back to the other analysis I made back then, but honestly that's too much work right now, sorry.

Everyone with a post count <5 has a ''small post count''.
Everyone with a post count difference >5 has a ''big jump'' (up or down).
The person who was voted for is in brackets at the end.

Thy: Small post count, but it was like that on day one also. Did change her vote once. (Jae)
Cyg: big jump up in post count, changed his vote one. (Jae)
Rev: no big changes, changed his vote once. (Jae)
Skunk: no big changes. (Rev)
Muzz: big jump down in post count, small post count on day 2 only. (Rev)
Rash: no big changes, changed his vote once. (Jae)
Goltar: no big changes, changed his vote once. (Jae)
xDuck: Small post count, but it was like that on day one also. Did change his vote once. (xxx)
Brak: big jump up in post count, changed his vote 3. (Jae)
Moar: Small post count, but it was like that on day one also. (Jae)
Jaago: no big changes, changed his vote once. (Jae)
Nikon: no big changes, changed his vote once. (Jae)
Gohab: no big changes. (Rash)
W_m: Small post count, but it was like that on day one also. (Rash)
Touch: Small post count, but it was like that on day one also. (Rev)
Sint: no big changes, changed his vote once. (Jae)
Lister: small post count, I think it was bigger on day one. (Rev)
Sitro: small post count, slight drop from day one. (Jae)

I left out Drixx, Jae, Jrla and CDRT.

Now based on these numbers I can conclude this:
Thy, xDuck, Moar, W_m, Touch and Sitro have definate small post counts. I think Lister was >5 on day one. This could be seen as ''lying low'' to avoid attracting attention.
Cyg, Muzz and Brak have big jumps in post count. A jump down could be seen as lying low, while a jump up could be seen as fixing something from the day before.
Brak changed his vote more then twice. This could be seen as indesicive or mafia tactics trying to plant doubt or trying to make other people vote too.
---
Quite a few people aren't posting ''much'' (5 or more a day).
xDuck didn't vote.

Now there might be obvious things in here, there might be a few new ones. Also, I looked purely at the counts and votes etc. If there was a reason why someone posted more or less then I haven't taken it into consideration.

Honestly.. I don't know what to make of it.. sigh. I'm of grocery shopping, maybe something comes to mind then.
 
This is greatly upsetting, we hardly had the chance to say our final goodbyes to Drixx and had hardly the time to put the rope to Jaedhan (btw congratulations if you were the village idiot), or we suffer yet another death, rest in peace Jrlafrance.

Now it did not look to me like he was a candidate for village idiot, so don't really get why the mafia took out him of all people, but maybe the mafia saw things that I did not. Or they're just attempting to frame someone. After I published that list and Thyiad made her comment about it, I expected them to either take someone from the top or the bottom of the list, or Thyiad or me. It just depends on what amount of reverse psychology you employ, who you think they're trying to frame. If Rashiminos would have put any argument in his voting for me, I'd have thought he'd be trying to lead people to lynch me based on that framing. Without any argument, he does however look like trying to act like the village idiot, something he's tried already earlier and survived so far. However, I do not think he's the most dangerous mafia member, I need to see more posts by whom I suspect for that role before revealing that name though.
 
skunkbelly said:
One other possibility for the CrookedCop: he/she might've simply not picked someone, just to throw us off. That's a technique the mafia certainly employed in round two, on at least one occasion, and two if memory serves.

As I indicated in my last post "yesterday" (on Friday, I think, in real-life time), I am quite suspicious of Rash at this point (and especially after his early and blunt vote today). And I remain suspicious of RK. But I'm not prepared to vote for anyone yet.
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OK this is going to seem out of the blue but I'm placing a vote for Skunkbelly

Reasoning:
1) flying very much under the radar. Didn't post over the last two days (maybe personal don't know). But this resembles his play as mafia in game 1.

2) He drops in with a short post today, and offers very obvious advice that has been mentioned repeatedly. Mafia want to look helpful so they drop little grains of wisdom like this even though it effectively means little.

3) Restates his previous suspicions with very little evidence to back up.

I'm not very certain about this, but the day is young I've got plenty of time to change my vote.

@Sint, if you read the last game you'll see that three votes in one day for me is a slow day :wink:

@Rash, I'm also wondering about your early non-backed-up vote. Care to elaborate?



 
Jaago, you should read my posts (your quotes) again more carefully.

I wanted to lynch somebody on the first day, but at the time of my post it was too early to pick a player. There is just not enough information that early. The 2nd post is from when day was nearing its end and more people had posted. I chose the person from the no-lynchers that was looking the most suspicious to me and shortlisted the others.

And what's that about playing nethack? That sounds rather random. :smiley:

Now, I must admit that I am really confused by the VI business. I was thinking that RV was the VI, but then it came up that he planned to act like the VI from before when the roles were decided. He could still be it though, but at the moment anybody could be the VI.
 
Just to make it clear. There is absolutely no voting for yourself, not even if you're the village idiot. There is absolutely no killing yourself. The way the mafia is set up (and has been for all of these games) they can not kill one of their own. If you're the vigilante, you can't kill yourself.

The crooked cop can take anyone but themselves into custody.

Any more questions?
 
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