Re: The Vanilla (Ice) mafia thread
Noodle hasn't been seen all day, and the clock is ticking. We need to decide who to lynch, and we need time to discuss.
On the first night, Marahumm picked a random night action to witness. I don't think the choice could have been better, since he saw what Bad Ash did that night. Bad Ash tried to shoot Noodle, but missed in the dark, and Noodle got away unharmed.
It took me far too long to figure out how Noodle survived. Bad Ash was no ordinary mafia, but a hitman, capable of bypassing any protections. It was possible that Noodle had a defensive vigilante ability, but that would have clashed with his role claim. Also the idea that the first three night kills had all been mafia seemed extremely unlikely.
Then Loz brought up the bus driver. It was the only reasonable explanation, and the only thing that could possibly have saved Noodle, if his role claim was true. What would flubbucket do on the first night, with no information at all of who was who? My guess is he switched the two players most likely to go at each other's throats if they ended up on opposite sides. I'm sure I don't need to spell that out. Bad Ash killed himself, by being too predictable.
flubbucket later said he'd switched two players, one with a severe restriction and another without. It took some interpreting, but he could have meant Bad Ash being restricted in the worst possible way, by being dead.
Marahumm was cautious enough to note this did not mean Noodle was town, only that he and Bad Ash were not on the same side. I'm also convoluted enough to wonder that if they were switched by flubbucket, did Marahumm see them switched, or as their real selves? That is getting too complicated though, and I think we can ask our moderator if it comes to that. Either way, morning came and Bad Ash was revealed as mafia. We should be able to trust that info. I think FalconGK asked early in the thread if the bus driver could switch their roles, but it should only switch their targets. Bad Ash was mafia. Noodle is not.
I'm pretty much ruling out a second mafia by this point. If there had been two factions, both should have had a kill on the first night. That leaves Noodle as either town or neutral. If he was a serial killer, his role claim of having an informative power role would be extremely poor, since he would have to make up a new lie every day, and he could be caught any time.
That leaves the unlikely conclusion that Noodle is town, and he's told us the truth. I would have liked him to post first, so I could have made his role claim iron clad. It now appears that both kills on the second night were indeed scum. What are the odds? But, when you eliminate every other possibility, whatever is left, however unlikely, must be true.
More movie quotes, yay.
So, how did Gorny and wickedswami die? We have no vigilante, I'm sure of that now, unless Loz has some ability he has not revealed yet. kimiko could have had a one-shot vigilante kill and used it on Gorny, but that still leaves wickedswami. Could they really have taken each other out, like Noodle suggested? It sounds ridiculous, but I can't think of anything else that would be halfway possible.
I'm suggesting that Gorny was the serial killer. There was that weird reaction regarding gambler's fallacy on the first day, and it could be possible that kimiko did not get a specific mafia read on him, only that Gorny was guilty, which could mean either mafia or serial killer. Thoughts?
The two kills last night troubled me. But it could be that the last surviving mafia was given two kills on this night, just like in the last game when Sauron died.
Now, who to go after? At the start of the day I was thinking of Leo as being most suspicious, for the way she tried to start a bandwagon on Noodle on the first day. It's a good thing I did not post my information immediately, because then I could have accused her of making up her story to match mine. Now however, it makes perfect sense that she tried to start the bandwagon in an attempt to flush out mafia players.
Others have also posted their role claims, and I think we're only missing Uraj and Loz now. Uraj has said he can't, but I would like to know if he has some night action, and if that's where his information comes from. Same for Loz, though I don't really suspect him at the moment.
One more thing... I'm still holding a couple cards up my sleeve. Ankeli knows the other, since I wrote to him about it during the second night, but I've never yet mentioned it in the thread. He seems to have misunderstood it though, and oddly, that misunderstanding makes me trust him more. Funny how things work. The other bit is something Marahumm told me. It may not be useful, but I think there is a good chance it could reveal if anyone was lying. Time for role claims, I think we can end this with one more lynch.
PS. Another long post to write, and Noodle showed up while I was writing it. I won't waste time editing it now, I'll read what Noodle wrote and be happy.
Noodle hasn't been seen all day, and the clock is ticking. We need to decide who to lynch, and we need time to discuss.
On the first night, Marahumm picked a random night action to witness. I don't think the choice could have been better, since he saw what Bad Ash did that night. Bad Ash tried to shoot Noodle, but missed in the dark, and Noodle got away unharmed.
It took me far too long to figure out how Noodle survived. Bad Ash was no ordinary mafia, but a hitman, capable of bypassing any protections. It was possible that Noodle had a defensive vigilante ability, but that would have clashed with his role claim. Also the idea that the first three night kills had all been mafia seemed extremely unlikely.
Then Loz brought up the bus driver. It was the only reasonable explanation, and the only thing that could possibly have saved Noodle, if his role claim was true. What would flubbucket do on the first night, with no information at all of who was who? My guess is he switched the two players most likely to go at each other's throats if they ended up on opposite sides. I'm sure I don't need to spell that out. Bad Ash killed himself, by being too predictable.
flubbucket later said he'd switched two players, one with a severe restriction and another without. It took some interpreting, but he could have meant Bad Ash being restricted in the worst possible way, by being dead.
Marahumm was cautious enough to note this did not mean Noodle was town, only that he and Bad Ash were not on the same side. I'm also convoluted enough to wonder that if they were switched by flubbucket, did Marahumm see them switched, or as their real selves? That is getting too complicated though, and I think we can ask our moderator if it comes to that. Either way, morning came and Bad Ash was revealed as mafia. We should be able to trust that info. I think FalconGK asked early in the thread if the bus driver could switch their roles, but it should only switch their targets. Bad Ash was mafia. Noodle is not.
I'm pretty much ruling out a second mafia by this point. If there had been two factions, both should have had a kill on the first night. That leaves Noodle as either town or neutral. If he was a serial killer, his role claim of having an informative power role would be extremely poor, since he would have to make up a new lie every day, and he could be caught any time.
That leaves the unlikely conclusion that Noodle is town, and he's told us the truth. I would have liked him to post first, so I could have made his role claim iron clad. It now appears that both kills on the second night were indeed scum. What are the odds? But, when you eliminate every other possibility, whatever is left, however unlikely, must be true.
More movie quotes, yay.
So, how did Gorny and wickedswami die? We have no vigilante, I'm sure of that now, unless Loz has some ability he has not revealed yet. kimiko could have had a one-shot vigilante kill and used it on Gorny, but that still leaves wickedswami. Could they really have taken each other out, like Noodle suggested? It sounds ridiculous, but I can't think of anything else that would be halfway possible.
I'm suggesting that Gorny was the serial killer. There was that weird reaction regarding gambler's fallacy on the first day, and it could be possible that kimiko did not get a specific mafia read on him, only that Gorny was guilty, which could mean either mafia or serial killer. Thoughts?
The two kills last night troubled me. But it could be that the last surviving mafia was given two kills on this night, just like in the last game when Sauron died.
Now, who to go after? At the start of the day I was thinking of Leo as being most suspicious, for the way she tried to start a bandwagon on Noodle on the first day. It's a good thing I did not post my information immediately, because then I could have accused her of making up her story to match mine. Now however, it makes perfect sense that she tried to start the bandwagon in an attempt to flush out mafia players.
Others have also posted their role claims, and I think we're only missing Uraj and Loz now. Uraj has said he can't, but I would like to know if he has some night action, and if that's where his information comes from. Same for Loz, though I don't really suspect him at the moment.
One more thing... I'm still holding a couple cards up my sleeve. Ankeli knows the other, since I wrote to him about it during the second night, but I've never yet mentioned it in the thread. He seems to have misunderstood it though, and oddly, that misunderstanding makes me trust him more. Funny how things work. The other bit is something Marahumm told me. It may not be useful, but I think there is a good chance it could reveal if anyone was lying. Time for role claims, I think we can end this with one more lynch.
PS. Another long post to write, and Noodle showed up while I was writing it. I won't waste time editing it now, I'll read what Noodle wrote and be happy.
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