OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

Why wouldn't the mafia be voting for themselves at this point? Since we're not playing insta-lynch the only votes that really count are those made at (or towards) the end of the day. There's the slight danger of attracting too much townies for the reasonable benefit of making ~48 hours of our reasoning void.

I'm very hesitant to vote out of bandwagon as long as it's not necessary. It's tempting to just lynch Rash, really, but not worth losing the game over. Which leaves me a bit worried about Lister. I'm used to seeing stronger arguments from him.

Oh, and I laughed when I read Rash's lurker descriptions :laugh:
 
Rifle brandishing townsfolk strip Rashiminos from his home as dusk tonight. They bring him out and stand him up in front of a nearby river.
"Any last words," one of them asks.
"Good luck, you're going to need it."
With that, each one fires a single shot into his back, plunging him into the river below.

It's night ten now, I need pm's from everyone who needs to pm me.
 
Sir Lister of Smeg was found in bad shape this morning at the sporting goods store where he worked. It appears as if the row of baseball bats fell off the shelf and hit him with enough force to kill a bear.

The mafia killed Sir Lister. It is now day ten. Six alive means it's four votes to lynch.

Alive (6)
Jaago
muzzz
skunkbelly
GoHabsGo
water_moon
goltar25

Dead (16)
Drixx (car accident)
Jaedhann (burned at the stake)
Jrlafrance (teddy bear accident)
RevenantsKnight
TouchOfInsanity
Brak (train accident)
LORD NIKON (roughed up)
xduckster (lion attack)
Sint Nikolaas (beheaded)
Cygnus (cement accident)
Thyiad (lynched)
CDRToast (shot)
Moar (pulled apart)
SiTro (poisoned)
Rashiminos (firing squad)
Sir Lister of Smeg (baseball bat accident)

In Prison (0)
No One
 
Well well well .... one of the guy who's been acused all game long by Rash gets murdered? This just makes our decision to lynch Rash yesterday even more logical. I was also suspecting him of being the Crooked Cop and now that he's dead, no one gets sent to jail?

Anyways, back to my other suspect.

Vote Jaago
 
I was wrong after all.

Fishsticks.

I'm gonna have to think a few things over before drawing more wrong conclusions. But I'm still not convinced Rash was mafia.
 
Jaago said:
If there were 3 mafia left, the game would be technically over.
Click to expand...

Exactly. I'm not convinced Rash was mafia, but I'm no longer convinced he was innocent either. At the moment I think it's most likely that we didn't even start yesterday with three mafia alive. Which means that I've got a lot of thinking to do all over again.



 
OK, a couple of thoughts based on the events of the past day:

I. Nobody is in prison today. This means one of three things:

a: Rash was the crooked detective, and Goltar is a townie, or...
b: Rash was the crooked detective, and Goltar is mafia, or...
c: Rash was Not the crooked detective, and for some strategic reason, the mafia has chosen not to imprison someone today.

II. Jaago voted for Sir Lister first yesterday, and said he was "Sure." When I spoke up, Jaago had no problem changing his vote rather quickly to me. That means one of two things:

a: He wasn't really sure about Lister (and clearly, he wasn't), or...
b: He was absolutely sure about Lister, and also about me, and therefore had no problem changing his vote (i.e., Jaago is mafia).

I'm not sure what to think about scenario "I". It could really be any of the three, although I'm leaning towards "b".

But as for Jaago's voting, I am sure: he was wrong about Lister, then changed his vote to follow Rash's logic... and it seems that Rash very well might've been the CD.

Am I innocent? Well, that's up to everyone to decide, and anything I say will only muddy the waters.

vote Jaago
 
Yes. I was pretty sure that Lister was mafia. That was because I was sure that there was 3 mafia left and I didin't think any of the other remaining people were mafia than the ones I listed yesterday.

I admit it, I'm a moron.

I thought that bandwagoning on w_m, whom I still believe is mafia, there could be a lynch that would buy the town more time, i.e. a mafia lynch.

I know that Rash wasn't mafia, because he was voted out yesterday. I would mean that the remaining mafia would consist of any of me, muzzz and goltar. I know I'm not mafia and I'm quite sure neither muzzz or goltar are mafia.

That would leave skunk, w_m and gohabs earlier to make the mafia. I might have misjudged gohabs because he kept voting me without much of an effect instead of bandwagoning on other people, who most certainly were townies also; it also could have been a good cover.

I am still pretty sure there are still at least 2 mafia left.

I also want to be optimistic, so I *hope* w_m is a townie and she will also understand my point as I *hope* muzzz and goltar will. That way we could still eliminate at least one mafia.

Vote: Skunkbelly
 
Well that was downright annoying. I don't have much time this morning, but a quick overview of my thoughts from yesterday. First, I'm a townie, it wouldn't have made any sense for the mafia to imprison one of their own yesterday. If you don't believe me, fine, that's your decision. Second, I seriously doubt that we've got 3 mafia left. If we do, we're all doomed, as they can stall any vote or if any townies vote incorrectly, they can instantly bandwagon. Same as yesterday, except they couldn't stall a vote then. From what I saw yesterday, I think Rash was the crooked detective. Oh, and while I normally don't like to do this, to all those who kept saying Jaedhann was the crooked detective (ESPECIALLY Rash, which is why I'm even more sure he was the CD), I TOLD YOU SO!. Anyway, no voting from me yet, but I just had a few things to say.

Now, off to prepare for a real life funeral. I'll try to get water_moon on here sometime, but she's even busier than me right now.
 
In order for there to be three mafia remaining, the CD would have to still be alive. If the CD is still alive, they could've just detained a townie today, and then lynched anyone they wanted (they would three of five votes needed). Game over! Therefore, the CD is clearly NOT alive, and must've been Rash. The only alternative is that the mafia has gotten really sloppy, which I find highly unlikely.

So that leaves us fighting either one or two mafia members.
 
Sorry if this post is a little chaotic. I have a bunch of things to say, not all related, but not the energy to worry about coherence. Let me know if it doesn't make sense and I'll try again after dinner and coffee :wink3:

I doubt skoolbus would even allow the mafia to "stretch" the game by a day when they could've already won by detaining someone. That'd be downright cruel towards the town...

Jaago's vote changes yesterday didn't strike me as particularly suspicious. If I doubted any of his posts it was the one in which he was sure about Lister. The other posts were, in my opinion, fairly well argued.

I haven't had time to check the validity of the arguments with any semblance of thoroughness. Both sides seemed fair enough at first glance, although GoHabs arguments are quite a bit weaker than Jaago's and Skunk's.

Sorry to hear about your RL situation goltar.
 
muzzz said:
I doubt skoolbus would even allow the mafia to "stretch" the game by a day when they could've already won by detaining someone. That'd be downright cruel towards the town...
Click to expand...

I'm still trying to decide when to end the game. I don't think it will be the earliest possible time, because I don't want to accidently screw up, so there's a good chance it might go on an extra day. All that you guys need to worry about is lynching mafia.



 
(( I just wanted to say I'd like in on the next round ... dying so early was kinda a bummer ))

/end ghostly visitation
 
:shocked: Eek! First zombies, now ghosts! Hell is on the loose. Run for your lives! :tongue:

I just want to say that if there really is 3 mafia left, then the CD wouldn't have even needed to take anybody into custody. However, that idea has to be discarded for practical reasons. Though he could be playing mind games anyways.
 
Too bad goltar and w_m haven't had time to chime in yet.

At the moment I'm inclined to think that w_m and Jaago are innocent. I'm a little suspicious of GoHabs' continuing lack of arguments. Skunk and goltar are still undecided.

It seems like popular opinion would have either Jaago and goltar or Skunk and GoHabs/w_m as the mafia couple. If I have to make a call at the moment I'd say Skunk and GoHabs seem most likely to be the mafia. But I'm definitely not sure of anything, yet.
 
Jaago said:
I just want to say that if there really is 3 mafia left, then the CD wouldn't have even needed to take anybody into custody. However, that idea has to be discarded for practical reasons. Though he could be playing mind games anyways.
Click to expand...

Well, they would've had to take somebody in for the "instant win." But you're right... if there were three left, they would only need to sway one person to vote with them, and then it'd still be game over for the townies.

And yes, it is definitely possible that the CD is still alive and playing "mind games." But that would mean that the CD is smart enough for mind games, but too dumb to count the votes needed to lynch. I'm not buying that argument. I believe we're down to two mafia, or perhaps only one if we've been lucky.



 
Well, water_moon is going to be leaving town soon (as in a few hours) so I'll see if I can get her on here for a bit before we leave for the airport. Not likely, but I'll try. She's asleep right now and likely won't get a chance to sleep on her flights.

My opinion on the overall situation. We very likely don't have 3 mafia left. If we do, we're screwed. They can force a no-lynch at this point without any effort. So I'm going to assume that at most we've got two left. I think Rash was the CD and as I look back it makes a good deal of sense from everything he said.

If there's two left, and the CD is one of them, why didn't they take someone into custody? That would almost guarantee a win. 5 people to vote, 3 votes needed, and two mafia could bandwagon with a mistaken townie. Unless the three remaining townies all jumped on one of the two mafia (not likely considering how we've been voting all over the place the whole time), then they at least force a no-lynch.

If there's two left, and no CD, then we're in a guessing game of who the two are. They can't force a no-lynch, but unless all four of us vote for the same person, then we get a no-lynch. But if we go for another townie, then they can bandwagon and only need two other votes for that townie.

If there's one left, and that one is the CD, again, why was nobody taken into custody? At this point, that will significantly increase the mafia's voting power, though it would very likely confirm the person in custody as a townie and with only one mafia left, that's not a good idea.

If there's one left, and not the CD, it's a guessing game again, but we have a better chance. Sheer random odds dictate that we're less likely to lynch a mafia with only one out of six, but we only need to get one, not two, so the overall probability works better. Plus, the one remaining is less likely to be able to swing the voting.

Now, on to everyone left alive.

muzzz, skunkbelly, GoHabsGo, and water_moon voted for Rash. That leaves Jaago and myself. I know I'm a townie, so that leaves Jaago as mafia.

Vote: Jaago

I hope I'm not wrong on this one.
 
When I signed up for this over a month ago I figured that it'd be over and done with by now. Beacuse now I'm going on a trip to the grandparents house with baby and I seriously doubt I'll much time to actually check in. But, goltar being the sweetie that he is, should we need to lynch after today, I'll send my vote via him (I'm perma logged in in my IE.)

Sorry, Jaago but me thinks thou doth protest too much. (You and Rash voting the same-- coincidence? I think not.)

VOTE: Jaago
 
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