OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

RK was never on my suspect's list and his latest post only adds to that. I'm not prepared to vote for his lynching at this point.

And since Moar's been left off the hook as she's not in town today, I'm switching my vote the one who has always been at the top of my suspect list:

unvote Moar
vote Jaedhann

PS Unless more people vote or there is a major vote swing, no lynching today as well :(
 
Jaedhann is either not paying enough attention to the game to be any good, or he's mafia. Also, he said that he changed his style of play, which was a mafia-saying in the last game.

Vote Jaedhann
 
Sint: Or until a new idiot steps up?

Jaedhann said:
Well, i haven't read much so far, only quickread the last few pages. I must say that Rev gets lots of attention, and that's not surprising. He could very well be the VI, but if he is, he's playing the roll very well. My suspicion goes towards him being a mafia member, pretending to be the VI.
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Not especially convinced. I can believe that you skimmed over this, it seems you missed Jaago's quote and the posts referencing that.

Also, combining the fact that this is your only post of the day so far with my reasons for voting for you yesterday and this does little to alleviate my concerns.

Vote: Jaedhann



 
Haven't had time to catch up yet, but I think I would like to hear from the Jaedhann voters on why they believe he consented to kill Drixx?
 
To all.

Yes i have changed my playing style
yes, i haven't contibuted a lot to the discussion
yes, i have voted for the one with the most votes.

so, this either made me a very dumb and obvious mafia member. Or some who, just like he said, is just not going to read everything this early on in the game because, frankly, he just hasn't got much to say. I really appreciate all your speculations, but let's face it, the first couple of lynches are just a big gamble. I am not really interested into getting involved in all the guessing this early, i just want someone else then me to be lynched (because someone has to). And if you are a townie, you should want the same.
 
Jaedhann said:
To all.

Yes i have changed my playing style
yes, i haven't contibuted a lot to the discussion
yes, i have voted for the one with the most votes.

so, this either made me a very dumb and obvious mafia member. Or some who, just like he said, is just not going to read everything this early on in the game because, frankly, he just hasn't got much to say. I really appreciate all your speculations, but let's face it, the first couple of lynches are just a big gamble. I am not really interested into getting involved in all the guessing this early, i just want someone else then me to be lynched (because someone has to). And if you are a townie, you should want the same.
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Yet is the speculation about the lynchings worthless? Somehow I don't think this is the case.


 
Rashiminos said:
Yet is the speculation about the lynchings worthless? Somehow I don't think this is the case.
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Well, according to the last game; yes. I believe that dumb luck has a far greater impact on getting a mafia member lynched then early game speculations.



 
Brak said:
This is just silly. How can two fellow mafia provide any significant vote protection this early in the game? There are only two of them. Add this in with your insistance on uncovering town roles which ridiculously aids the mafia and you have become high on my suspect list.

And RK thanks for coming out. Your last post very much changed my opinion of you.
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Since jrlafrance has been a mafioso in a previous game and it doesn't seem like killing the less active Drixx would work to his advantage, my opinion is that he's a townie whose suspicion has gone a bit off-target.

(Yes Brak, I know you're voting for Jaedhann at the moment.)

It concerns me that it took RK's most recent post to change some people's opinions.


 
Cygnus said:
If I counted the votes and the unvotes correctly, this is what I have:

Code: 
xduckster              No one
RevenantsKnight        goltar
Sir Lister of Smeg     RK
jrlafrance             RK
Jaago                  No one
LORD NIKON             Moar
Jaedhann               No one
Moar                   No one
muzzz                  RK
Rashiminos             Moar
Sint Nikolaas          No one
TouchOfInsanity        RK
Cygnus                 Moar
Thyiad                 Rash
skunkbelly             RK
SiTro                  No one
GoHabsGo               Rash
goltar25               RK
Brak                   Moar
water_moon             No one
The tally:
No one: 7
RK: 6
Moar: 4
Rash: 2
goltar: 1

Could those who haven't voted please, please, please vote? If you haven't made up your mind yet, vote for someone now and later change it if you wish.
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This is not correct. I voted Rash for one thing. Vote tallying seems to be a real problem. May I suggest a form of poll? or at least running code like the above but corrected as you cast/change your vote.



 
I don't remember who (and I'm , but someone questioned my reasoning for voting for RevenantsKnight. See post #126 for that reasoning. Basically, he was too eager to see someone lynched on day one. His explanation really seems to me like a last ditch effort to save himself, but why? Obivously nobody but the village idiot actually wants to be lynched. I'm rethinking my vote, but I'm not going to change it just yet.

Thyiad's still a tough call between village idiot and mafia, especially with her consistent lack of reasoning (sometimes poor reasoning, sometimes no given reason) behind her voting. But with her current vote out of the blue, she's moving back up my suspicion list.

And all of the vote counters are making me a bit suspicious, especially since they keep messing up. Though skoolbus has missed a few too. Of course all of the people suddenly changing to Jaedhann are a bit suspicious too. I guess I'm just getting too paranoid.
 
Rashiminos said:
Haven't had time to catch up yet, but I think I would like to hear from the Jaedhann voters on why they believe he consented to kill Drixx?
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Ok, let's see here
- Jae was one of the latecomers, along with a few other people. This coupled with the inordinate delay during night 0 led me to believe that 2 out of 3, if not all them had night roles. Drixx' murder supports that argument
- IMO Moar is more likely to be a mafia member than Jae, but some are of the opinion that she should be given a chance to defend herself. Never mind. Her lynching can wait
- Jae's first comment on day 1 included something along the lines that he was changing his play style. Alarm bell goes off. Nice excuse to talk less, if other believe it. He was fairly vocal in round 2, from what I recall, and yes, it did get him killed. In general, talkative people got killed last round, while the reticent mafia won comfortably. If he's mafia this time, he needs a way to cut down on the talk without arousing too much suspicion, and a "change in play style" comes in handy. Brak too got himself killed last time around, and he's much quieter this time, but still fairly active. Jae, otoh, has been nearly completely silent.
- He suddenly popped in, voted, and left. He later claims that it was not because the target was suspicious, but because he's simply following the crowd. So why didn't his original post say so?
- Too obvious a tactic? No. A few hours back, there was not a single vote to lynch him. If everyone piled on the most talkative people, it would have worked. Even now it might, people have been piling on RK and you.

To sum up, I'm not sure or anything that he's mafia. In fact, there's a good chance he's a townie with a role. But probabilistically speaking:

chance of lynching a mafia member, all things being random: 3/22 (including CDRT here)

chance of lynching a mafia member, given the victim is a person with a night role = 3/6 (3x mafia, cop, vigilante, doc) -- I'm discounting witness and the masons as they don't have to PM skoolbus during the night

chance that jaedhann is a mafia member = 3/6 * whatever the chance you think is that he has a town role. This is personal opinion, and the reasoning I've noted above makes this a fairly high chance for me. My main concern is not about lynching a townie if I'm wrong; it's about taking out the cop or the vigilante, both of whom have a high chance of taking out one of the mafia at some point.

@w_m: That's why I prefixed the table with "If I counted the votes and the unvotes correctly" :wink3: I did go through the list of posts twice, still my bad.



 
Cygnus said:
- Jae was one of the latecomers, along with a few other people. This coupled with the inordinate delay during night 0 led me to believe that 2 out of 3, if not all them had night roles. Drixx' murder supports that argument
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Alright, you're saying that Jaedhann consented to murder Drixx for his late participation on day 1 along the lines that more people than the mafia may have failed to contact skoolbus. This however gives the mafia less people to try to get to lynched for being inactive. Certainly doesn't help the mafia hide in the likely event they were inactive, but they may have a shot at a town role that was inactive (not as likely as inactive mafia, but reasonably possible nonetheless). I'm going to chalk this up to players who haven't been mafia before. If it will help things move along, I'll change my vote.

Unvote: Moar (reluctantly...)
Vote: Jaedhann


 
RevenantsKnight said:
Others I suspect:

jrlafrance's “I’m voting until you say something sensible†set off an alarm bell, since it’s lazy playing on a safe target. Additionally, it came after a pair of unvotes on me, which means his vote is less likely to deprive the Mafia of its screen unless people re-bandwagon.
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It's about time the real RK comes out. Honestly, why would you do something like that to try to confuse people?

Brak said:
This is just silly. How can two fellow mafia provide any significant vote protection this early in the game? There are only two of them. Add this in with your insistance on uncovering town roles which ridiculously aids the mafia and you have become high on my suspect list.
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The other two cannot control the votes, only try to misdirect the voting.
Brak said:
But even worse is Jaedhann. Doesn't post for a long time. Says absolutely nothing of importance and then piles on to the highest vote total. It's so obvious I almost think it's just lazy play and not mafia.

Honestly not sure which to vote for.

vote jrlafrance

At least if you're a townie we won't have someone around giving the mafia ideas.

And RK thanks for coming out. Your last post very much changed my opinion of you.
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Rashiminos said:
Think on that some more, and if you should reach an interesting answer, keep it to yourself.
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I'll only comment briefly on this, but it doesn't make sense to the whole game to try and confuse everyone if you are a townie.



 
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