OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

You're certainly allowed to use them, just not discuss them here.

Then my vote will stay the same for the moment, but I'm FAR less suspicious of water_moon right now, and Thyiad has dropped lower on my list. She's still suspicious, but her first day voting has an extra non-mafia reason behind it.



 
It is very much in the doctor's interest to see the VI get murdered by the mafia. If the doc thinks RK is the VI, (s)he shouldn't be trying to save him. Likewise, the mafia can hit someone widely suspected to be the VI with little fear of a failed night.

I'm not entirely convinced RK is not the village idiot. It could be a case of the VI trying too much to look like the VI so everyone else will think he's not.

OT: Why does my name keep coming up reg. people who don't post? I've been making a set of posts about once every 24 hours. RL ensures that I can generally only post in the evenings on weekdays, although I try to catch up on this thread in the morning and at lunch.

It would be in the doctor's interest to save the village idiot, since that would delay the killing of other town members.



 
I think we should give the mafia another chance to whack him.

I think you're just trying to buy him some time ... which would be another big indication of your association with him.


Jaago said:
Imho, the style of RK's posts has to be ignored so that you can find the logic behind them. There's surprisingly little randomness involved.

After seeing that I went back and started reading most of his posts and you're right. It gets confusing but there seem to be some well hidden metaphores in his VI-like language.

I still consider him the prime suspect BUT, if he's not mafia he definetly own a special role. My bet would be vigilante.


 
After seeing that I went back and started reading most of his posts and you're right. It gets confusing but there seem to be some well hidden metaphores in his VI-like language.

I still consider him the prime suspect BUT, if he's not mafia he definetly own a special role. My bet would be vigilante.

You may be on to something.


 
D'oh. I totally forgot this. Note that this was posted before any roles were assigned, meaning that he is playing that role regardless of his real role in the game.

What I'm trying to imply here is, that most of our analysis of him hold very little ground, if any. It also means that some of us need to reconsider this situation from a totally different point of view. (At least I have to.) Imho, the style of RK's posts has to be ignored so that you can find the logic behind them. There's surprisingly little randomness involved.

I'll come back to business after I have reassembled my vision of the game so far, but as of now, my verdict is: not guilty.

That's certainly interesting, but he did not say he would surely play the nutjob just that it was an option. At this moment I see no reason to change my opinion on him.

I do have a proposal for the mafia though: if you do now after all think that RevenantsKnight is the village idiot, simply let one of you (and only one or you'd have a lose-lose situation) step forward. Then we'll lynch that one, and you can murder RevenantsKnight at night. Remember, if RevenantsKnight is the village idiot, you'll lose if he's lynched. If one of you is lynched, you lose one, but with two left you can still win the game. It's only unfortunate that you cannot secretly debate this, although it might not be necessary, for example if RevenantsKnight is indeed one of you.

@Jrlafrance: you have an interesting list of suspicions on roles. Frankly the only suspicions I have are on various mafiosi candidates and village idiocy candidates, of the townies the only one I have some ideas on is the cop.
Of course the point on the witness is moot as Rashiminos pointed out, and I think that gives the witness a far more enjoyable game than I had last game.

Anyhow, I want to hear from those people who did not say anything yet today (or hardly anything). I'll post some more later, if I'm not mistaken it's now about noon in gametime.



 
I do have a proposal for the mafia though: if you do now after all think that RevenantsKnight is the village idiot, simply let one of you (and only one or you'd have a lose-lose situation) step forward. Then we'll lynch that one, and you can murder RevenantsKnight at night. Remember, if RevenantsKnight is the village idiot, you'll lose if he's lynched. If one of you is lynched, you lose one, but with two left you can still win the game. It's only unfortunate that you cannot secretly debate this, although it might not be necessary, for example if RevenantsKnight is indeed one of you.

This just simply doesn't work at all.



 
Meh, I still can't get over that 8-ball..

Is it a Trustworthy Magic 8-Ball of Truthfulness, a rare Magic 8-Ball with godly stats, or the unique All-Seeing Eye (Magic 8-Ball)?
 
But if that would happen, that would mean that RevenantsKnight is not the village idiot and he could try to make that clear to us.

A: Tell me, what would do if somebody stepped up, vote or judge as VI?
B: There's no reason for the mafia to reveal themselves. They could probably steer (or have steered) the suspicions to someone else if they wanted to.



 
Time for a post count update.. think it'll be nice..
I'll just give all of the info now, instead of the highlights: cygnus(5), touch(2), xduck(2), gohabs(7), jaago(4), rash(31), skunk(3), nikon(5), rev(4), lister(5), moar(3), sint(7), brak(8), goltar(3), w_m(1), jrla(1), thy(1), jae(0), muzz(0), sitro(0).

Now if I compare this with yesterday, looking at somewhat big changes (5 or more I think, not including rash):
name #post yesterday-#post today
goltar 11-3
lister 14-5
nikon 10-5
jrla 7-1
muzz 9-0
sitro 5-0

I don't know what to make of it. I was looking to see if people were posting more to cover something up which isn't happening, or less to lie low, which isn't happening either. I mean, lister and muzz have the highest post difference but I can't see how lister is suspicious and muzz probably hasn't been on yet. Which makes it maybe too early, seeing how 3 people haven't posted yet, however I think it is still worthwhile to get this out to push people into posting. Yes, lying low is suspicious.

-----

On to the voting.. no big surprises there.. Moar and Rash took some early hits while Rev took the cake after that. It's 4-2-7 respectively btw (and goltar 1 from rev). Now let's link it to yesterday, shall we? Filtering out the non-votes and the vote changes, keeping only the votes that matter.

Yesterday:
jrla - rev
rev - rash
skunk - nikon
muzz - rev
xduck - CDRT
drixx - rev
brak - skunk
moar - drixx
jaago - rev
sint - brak
rash - jaago
touch - jaago
goltar - rev
cyg - rev
thy - rev

Today:
nikon - moar
rash - moar
brak - rev
gohabs - rash
w_m - rash
jaago - moar
xduck - rev
goltar - rev
cyg - moar
touch - rev
jrla - rev
rev - goltar
lister - rev
skunk - rev

Okay, we can pull info from here. Setting the votes against the number of posts and the previous votes against the latter votes.
Code:
Name -- #post/vote Y -- #post/vote T
Thy     4, rev           1, -
cyg     4, rev           5, moar
jrla    6, rev           1, rev
rev     5, rash          4, goltar
skunk   3, nikon         3, rev
muzz    7, rev           0, -
rash    xx, jaago        xx, moar
goltar  10, rev          3, rash
xduck   3, CDRT          2, rev
drixx   4, rev           dead
brak    7, skunk         8, rev
moar    4, drixx         3, -
jaago   6, rev           4, moar
nikon   10, -            5, moar
gohab   3, -             7, rash
w_m     3, -             1, rash
touch   4, jaago         2, rev
sint    4, brak          7, -

Not on the list:
jae     3, -             0, -
CDRT    2, -             prison
sitro   5, -             0, -

I just realised that the day one stuff isn't really up to date with the ending of day one. However it will still suffice to give out the changes etc.
Now what I said before about post differences hasn't given me a clear clue, however I made this table to show something else too.. vote-hopping. Out of all the people jrla is the only one to vote for someone two days in a row. As it stands right now I think that is a clue to being a townie. Especially because he already voted for rev on day 1 (along with muzz drixx and jaago), but instead of hopping at day two he kept to it and others also pinned down rev.
On to the band wagoning.
Yesterday Rev and Jaago were the people with the most votes. Today it's Moar, Rash and Rev.
Yesterday Rash voted for jaago early on, but changed his vote later. Then late in the day Brak voted for Jaago and after that Rash voted for him and Touch too.
Yesterday Jrla voted for Rev first, Muzz, Drixx and Jaago followed and at the end of the day Goltar, Cyg and Thy voted quickly after eachother to up the count.

Today Nikon voted for Moar early on, Rash followed immediately and later on Jaago and Cyg.
Today Sint voted for Rash somewhat early, Gohabs and W_M followed with the next two votes.
Today Brak voted for Rev somewhat early, it kept quiet for a while but after that xDuck, Goltar, Touch, Jrla, Lister and Skunk followed using the latter half of the day(time so far).

If I summarise the voting for jaago it looks like brak and rash are working together, but that's probably just a mis-assumption, only looking that was because I summarised it. However rash and touch hopped on the wagon pretty quick after eachother.
After jrla broke the vote on rev yesterday muzz, drixx and jaago followed suit, but those votes were spread out. goltar, cyg and thy were obviously hopping the wagon though.

Today nikon was first on moar and rash jumped the next post. It kept quiet for a bit and jaago and cyg's votes were spread a little later on.
The voting on rash looks like a bandwagon too, sint, gohab and w_m voting in a row, however gohab gave different reasoning then sint.
The voting for rev is a train. Brak opened vote and after a while xduck followed suit. After that the vote count jumped from 1 to 7 pretty quick.

So what to make of all this.
Well, I keep scores like this to see who is voting ''safe''. If you see that some other people are already voting for someone you can safely vote along not attracting too much attention. It is also a good way to see if people are voting along side of eachother. You know, two people constantly voting for the same target is suspicious.
Rash hops the wagon easily. On day one aswell as day two. Goltar, Cyg and Thy were ''safe'' voters on day one. Jaago and Cyg were safe on day two while Goltar, Touch, Jrla, Lister and Skunk were safe voters against rev.

Out of all this:
- Jrla likely townie based on his post/vote patern.
- Rash easy to board the wagon.
- Goltar and Cyg safe-voted twice.

My god.. such a waste of space to come to these conclusions :rolleyes:
 
Heh... Sint, wasn't it you, in the first Mafia game, who said that tallying votes was "a little too helpful" ? :wink3:

Not that I suspect you... my vote has been cast.
 
yeah skunk I guess.. however I'm keeping the list on paper anyway and no one else is giving out stuff like this, so I might aswell do it.

Lister: nice idea, hoping a mafia would step forward.. too bad jaago blew a hole in it :wink: Seriously though, even if the mafia would agree they wouldn't step forward. And if someone steps forward it is indeed very questionable if that person isn't the VI.
 
RL´s been a ***** again. I haven´t had time to go online yesterday, and I´ll only have limited time the rest of the weekend (like 30min a day... I hope...).

I´ve caught up with the thread as much as I could. My suspicion of Rashiminos still stands. It´s even grown a bit. After his ¨don´t save me doc¨ I was affraid he might be the VI at first. But I haven´t seen anything afterwards to back that up. I still suspect he has a role, but I don´t know which one.

I haven´t found any new suspects. A few posts were odd, but with the limited time I had for cross/double checking nothing clicked for me.

So I´m torn between voting Rash or RK. And I think I have to vote now, because I likely won´t be on again the rest of the day (unless it get´s prolonged again). My gut tells me that Rash is the most suspicious of the two, but my head says that a vote for RK is more likely to be effective.

I´ve always been one to follow my head.
Vote: RevenantsKnight
 
Judging from Sint's unofficial vote count and muzzz's last post, we've got at least 10 delusional people in this town, which isn't a good thing.
 
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