OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

I'll try to help gohabsgo make sense of this one..

Here's where skoolbus said he was going to bed and then declare day 1 over when he woke up: post 248

I played d2 for a bit, my HC throwbarb to be exact, and fell asleep before seeing goltar's next post, or the post afterwards, Jaago was 1 vote behind when I hit the sack.

I got woken up by some starving cats, and while I was up I managed to get a glass of water before zonking out again.

When I awoke properly, this post had already been made: post 259
 
I doubt anyone is concerned about the cats. To me it sounds like ''I'll defend myself with something far from convincing and post something totally random right after to throw away the attention from my case''
 
While my charater would be surprised that some one was so burtally murdered and in fact assume that it was a one off thing because he was new to town, I'm not suprised Drixx was a target, nor will I be suprised if Moar goes soon (either via mafia or lynch.) They were the ones to take rolls to replace inactive folks, now why replace a roll that serves no purpose? (answer b would cover that o/c)

It is certianly possible that:
a. the mafia took out one of their own, esp since he would be suspicious sooner or later. (the mafia belives they are smarter than us)
b. Skoolbus could have reassigned unfilled rolls to other players and given the replacements townie rolls. ('bus belives he's smarter than us or knows that we know he's smart and are smart ourselves)
c. the mafia belives that the replacements had rolls but drixx was not a mafia therefor he was a better target. (mafia smarter than skoolbus)
d. the vigilate was in fact the one to act out, in which case the mafia are beign too smart for their own good.
e. It's still disorganized crime and the hit was random. (Mafia knows we're smart, and is hoping we will outsmart ourselves.)
f. The Dr was active and lucky, hence only 1 kill. (when all the other possible solutions have been exausted, what ever remains, however unlikly must be the case)

Now over all I'm inclined to go with C, sorry SB but I'm not sure you thought of option B, and even if you did, option C can still be valid assuming the mafia estimates their intellegence to be greater than that of the GM.

I'm disinclined to go with either option D or E, since we were inactive yesterday (had we lynched some one, and it was not one of their number, it would be more plausible.)

I do belive the VI to still be out there, and while one would suspect them of being the squeaky wheel to get the grease, I'm voting for Rashiminos anyway.
 
Sint Nikolaas said:
Seriously though, this was the first night the mafia killed.. so.. maybe..
Click to expand...

Maybe we should plead the doctor to save you next night :smiley:

@ GoHabs: If you're sure that RevenantsKnight is a maf, why did you vote Rash, against whom your accusations are slightly assumptive? Weird.



 
w_m, most of the scenarios in your post are flawed, I'm not going to go into more depth, because it's so late here.

I'm voting. 99% by gut, but there are things I have refused to take into account earlier that have been pressing my mind from the beginning of this day.

Vote Moar
 
Jaago said:
Maybe we should plead the doctor to save you next night :smiley:

@ GoHabs: If you're sure that RevenantsKnight is a maf, why did you vote Rash, against whom your accusations are slightly assumptive? Weird.
Click to expand...

I believe his argument went along the lines of mafia voting to lynch their teammates for the purposes of confusion. He assumes RK is a mafia whoe voted for me to accomplish that end, but that I did not reciprocate because he had RK had too many vote.

Only it doesn't fit because RK had 1 vote at the time he voted me.


 
Totally agree with Jaago about Habs. If you're "sure" RK is mafia what the hell are you voting for anybody else for. That's just crazy.

Your argument about Rash has a lot of flaws. He voted for Jaago who, at the time, had the most votes. Also he clearly stated (as did many others) that RK was a likely village idiot. You don't vote for who you think is the VI just because a bandwagon is forming. Also being pro-lynch is being pro-town. We can't kill the mafia if we kill noone every night. We have effectively squandered our freebie.

Habs has just moved way up my suspect list.

And I really must say I don't understand this Rashiminos bandwagon. He's just been the most talkative player, but most of his points are valid. I don't understand why he voted Lister, but there are many other more suspicious players right now.

@WM, a lost of your points are off base. First skoolbus has already told us the mafia cannot kill themselves. Second Drixx was not a replacement Moar was, if they thought the late comer replacement had a pro-town role they would have killed Moar.


Finally wanted to point out my CDRToast theory. There was a major movement to accuse latecomers of being mafia yesterday since they were inactive on night 1. The crooked detective is very likely detaining CDR to make it look like protection. This strategy was used quite a lot by the crooked detective in the last round. I personally find it flawed.
 
Jaago said:
Maybe we should plead the doctor to save you next night :smiley:

@ GoHabs: If you're sure that RevenantsKnight is a maf, why did you vote Rash, against whom your accusations are slightly assumptive? Weird.
Click to expand...

My theory can only make sense if both of them are mafia. Honestly it doesn't really matter which of the two gets eliminated first because the other one will most likely go next. Nothing personal against him but in the game, he annoys me more than RK so might as well get rid of him now.


 
Brak said:
Totally agree with Jaago about Habs. If you're "sure" RK is mafia what the hell are you voting for anybody else for. That's just crazy.

Your argument about Rash has a lot of flaws. He voted for Jaago who, at the time, had the most votes. Also he clearly stated (as did many others) that RK was a likely village idiot. You don't vote for who you think is the VI just because a bandwagon is forming. Also being pro-lynch is being pro-town. We can't kill the mafia if we kill noone every night. We have effectively squandered our freebie.

Habs has just moved way up my suspect list.

And I really must say I don't understand this Rashiminos bandwagon. He's just been the most talkative player, but most of his points are valid. I don't understand why he voted Lister, but there are many other more suspicious players right now.

@WM, a lost of your points are off base. First skoolbus has already told us the mafia cannot kill themselves. Second Drixx was not a replacement Moar was, if they thought the late comer replacement had a pro-town role they would have killed Moar.


Finally wanted to point out my CDRToast theory. There was a major movement to accuse latecomers of being mafia yesterday since they were inactive on night 1. The crooked detective is very likely detaining CDR to make it look like protection. This strategy was used quite a lot by the crooked detective in the last round. I personally find it flawed.
Click to expand...


Said the guy who voted/re-voted 5 times yesterday? No one can be 100% sure in this game, it's the point of it. But at some point you have to start with a bit of logic and build from that.

You guys are the ones complaining about townies not taking every single chance they have to lynch. Yesterday, everyone seemed pretty sure about voting for RK and all of sudden we're changing path? That's exactly how the mafia wins, make the townies run left and right day after day.

There's no guarantee in this game but we need to make a plan and stick with it.


 
GoHabsGo said:
My theory can only make sense if both of them are mafia. Honestly it doesn't really matter which of the two gets eliminated first because the other one will most likely go next. Nothing personal against him but in the game, he annoys me more than RK so might as well get rid of him now.
Click to expand...

Translation: He's an easy lynch, no need to kill him at night.


 
No. I know the meaning of what I said so thank you for pointing more fingers in your direction.

You shouldn't be defending yourself Rash. Obviously you want to stay in longer so you'll use anything to save yourself, no matter the role. That's why it should be up to people who have reasons to believe your a townie to defend your case.
 
Rashiminos said:
Translation: He's an easy lynch, no need to kill him at night.
Click to expand...

100% agreed. If you think there should be momentum for RK then keep it going. I think he should be lynched. That's where my votes staying even though you're catching up with him. Just because Rash has a lot of votes and we need a lynching doesn't mean he's the only person to vote for.

And you should note that although I voted for a lot of people yesterday (some for reaction some in jest) you'll notice my final vote fell on one of the two 'contendors' so don't accuse me of wasting my vote when it's not true.

@Rash I have to ask, why are you still on Lister with Habs and RK about? I really don't get it.



 
Brak said:
Finally wanted to point out my CDRToast theory. There was a major movement to accuse latecomers of being mafia yesterday since they were inactive on night 1. The crooked detective is very likely detaining CDR to make it look like protection. This strategy was used quite a lot by the crooked detective in the last round. I personally find it flawed.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what I said too, I don't think it's about CDRT who is most likely to be a townie, however I added the dimension that the mafia used it make it look like a frame or something for someone else.
It seems to be weakened a bit now but more fingers point to Moar. I want to see other people post (no.. I mean the ones who haven't posted yet :wink3: ) before I see what to do with my vote.

I still think your voting didn't look good Rash, you made some assumptions too just like Lister. I don't know. Maybe I'm pulling a ''Sint vs Brak'' again just like last game, only now you're the one :tongue:



 
All the defense I need is contained in these words:

If I was mafia, there would be 2 murders right now instead of one. That I can guarantee.
 
Dammit stop posting while I'm trying to make sense -_-

Okay, I don't agree with Gohabs on the way he singled out both Rev and Rash as working together. However I do agree we need a strategy.
Also, I don't like how you ''translate'' posts Rash. However I do agree that's how you could read it and it isn't looking logical. You read the latest Harry Potter? For the greater cause. Attracting too much attention is bad, but it might give us clues.

Unvote Rash

edit: screw multiple posts.. I'm just too slow...
 
Rashiminos said:
All the defense I need is contained in these words:

If I was mafia, there would be 2 murders right now instead of one. That I can guarantee.
Click to expand...

Oh right, what a perfect argument, let's remove you from the suspect list right away!

I didn't believe in the reverse psyco technik but you're using it now. ''I'll say what I would do if I was mafia and make sure it's the opposite of what's going on right now so that means theres no way I can be mafia''


 
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