Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

10 people left alive, so we have 3-4 days left, depending on whether we can lynch a mafioso in the first 3.

This request goes out to the entire town, even those people on the list I'm about to make. I'd like to hear people's opinions on the following issues:

aman
Specifically, how far do you believe his claim to have messed with the mafia's plans to nk other townies? To what extent to you disbelieve it and why?

Nolecub
Do you believe his doctor claim? If not, why?

Soylentred
Has claimed a minor townie role in the past when under pressure of votes. Do you believe she has one? If not, why do you think she claimed to? (If you think she's mafia then you might as well just say that, if not, explain why a townie would need to lie about that.)

Ankeli
Do you think he was mafia? Such an occurence would explain why Hey could be interpreted as being surprised at Night 3, but is a less cautious assumption to make.

spigot
Has been very quiet of late. Yesterday's post told us everything that happened but was not supported with enough analysis of what happened by far. Also, there were some glaring mistakes in the description of what happened. Do you believe there could be any other reason behind this?


Now, this wouldn't be fair if I asked all this and didn't give my personal views. So:

aman
Am tempted to believe what he says. Yes, he roleclaims without a second thought. But he's normally more keen to move on and claim something else when he does. For those who are unaware he's been sticking to the same thread throughout this game, which is quite rare. Ergo, based on these hints, I'm currently assuming he's townie.

Nolecub
As I said yesterday, a doctor is the best role for a mafia to claim under the threat of a lynch. The fact that Nolecub seems to have peppered his posts with hints adds an extra dimension. There is no reason for a doctor to hint at their role. So, this reduces the question down significantly. Nolecub is either a bad doctor who laid evidence that he was the doctor, or he is a good mafia player who laid such hints to prepare for a possible future lynch. At the moment I'm prepared to believe the former. Check aman's CF game, where Dr. Nolecub was lynched by the town on the first day. I think it's possible that this experience would have skewed him, and these hints were an attempt to stop the same thing from happenng again.*

Soylentred
Hard to say anything here lest the day become another fight and we lose focus here. I believe she probably is a townie with a role. Obsessed with keeping a clean sheet for some reason. Interesting enough.

Ankeli
I'm of the view that assuming him to be a mafia is too risky here. In the worst case scenario, i.e. he was townie, then assuming him to be a townie means we aren't overly optimistic and thinking we have less of a task ahead of us than we do.

spigot
I don't trust him. Making such a list but with no thoughts about it means that as people read through it they assume his version of events by default. Also, if people want to be lazy then they just refer back to this and make mistakes in their reasoning based on that.


Now, some thoughts about last night. It confuses me. Ogogo was not the optimal choice for the mafia. He was looking suspicious to a number of people, which means he was inadvertantly running interference for the mafia. Had they left him alive we'd have had a chance of lynching him instead of an actual bad guy. As well as which, there's no shortage of mostly-confirmed townies about, so why not pick off one of those? Did aman scare them that much with his comments about sending Soylentred or MassiveSin on a trip? Or was this due to aman after all?

*Yes, it references previous games. But in a behavioural sense rather than a direct correlation.
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

aman

I believe him to be pro town and has done a good job of helping the town after all he is the voice of reason.

Nolecub

At the moment i believe his claim, his saves make sense even though he hasn't got one right yet.

Soylentred

Hard to say, she has played a very weird game so far. Attacking Zhao, you, me. Soy if you have a role just come clean now.

Ankeli

I believe him to have been mafia, he played like mafia and until im proved wrong i will continue to believe so.

Spigot

His update was full of errors and misinterpretation of events but i believe him to be clean.

@ Sitro : I still haven't role claimed :(
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Soylentred

Hard to say, she has played a very weird game so far. Attacking Zhao, you, me. Soy if you have a role just come clean now.

(

sure I am just a mason

I don't think I attacked anybody. I defended and argued against non logic.
I hate being clobbered over the head by statements that make no sense - sorry if that makes me weird.

You never answered as to whether you took me on a trip last night.


 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

As I said in my last post, the errors that were there were there for a reason, I know what's going on already, so I will limit my first post to a vote. Its correct so you can either back me up or not, I'm afraid the rest of this game won't be very interesting as long as I have the support of the rest of the players (but then again, how do you know I'm telling the truth :azn:)

vote: jaago
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Soylentred, spigot, you need to answer the questions in my post. Now. This town could depend on it.

I'd also like to add another question to the list I posted in #484.

On a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you like the Mafia Points system and table that I introduced for this round?

Let 1 be equivalent to "I wake up every morning cursing it's very existence" and 10 be equal to "SiTro, you should be nominated for a Nobel Prize for services to Mafia players".


Again folks, you need to answer the questions in this post and #484
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Again the bullying tone.
I believe Aman and Nolecub both about 80%.
I answered the question regarding myself.
The Ankeli question I believe to be irrelevant such that it is not affecting how I play the game.
Spigot's post was not intending to provide analysis. Of course it occurred to me that it's intent might be to point up some facts and bury others. Or it could be just what happens when someone tries to give an overview of 400 posts. I find it a useful item with a grain of salt.
I do not like the mafia points system giving it about a 1 because it is too subjective.
I believe that it also can be used as a tool to point up certain facts and bury others where you can find any facts in it.
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Let's answer some questions:

aman - I don't trust him at all. The fact that he has not been NK'd irks me. Either he is mafia, or he has some wicked power role.

Me - I am who I say I am. Thanks for reminding me about my previous stinit as Doc. That game was not good. I went to bed with only 1 vote to be lynched, and when I logged on the next morning I was gone. Kind of like what happened to FBZ yesterday.

In other words, I believe my claim as the doc.

Soy - I get a town vibe, that is why she received my medical care last night. Now that she has claimed Mason, someone can now vouch or dispute this claim.

Ankeli - Town. I tried to save him, but it appears my drugs were stolen en route.

Spigot - Falls just outside my top 4 for the time being

Let's give the SiTro Mafia-o-Meter (tm) a 6 out of 10. Enhancements could be made to point out which posts caused points to be added or subtracted.
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

The fact you are still alive also is odd. That works two ways.

I like the mafia point system, lets say 9/10.
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Oh and I also agree I can't figure out why Ogogo was iced :rolleyes:

He was a good target for the next lynch and mafia may have wasted a NK.

If we have figured rightly there is maybe only 1 mafia alive and the brains of the operation are gone and thus that NK.

The only other explanation is that there are some brains left there and they have figured him out to have a role we missed.
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

The fact you are still alive also is odd. That works two ways.

I like the mafia point system, lets say 9/10.


Actually it makes perfect sense to me. Mafia knows that I am unable to save myself and by all rights should be dead. They leave me alone, knock off ogogo, and let the town lynch me due to me still being alive.



 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I have answered most of these already but I'll recap

aman
Specifically, how far do you believe his claim to have messed with the mafia's plans to nk other townies? To what extent to you disbelieve it and why?
I thought I remember somewhere about lynching someone that would provide the most answers...
For me it is as I said when I referred to the Hey / Aman exchange. To counter my own logic then the mafia decided to put one of their own into jail on day 1 when there would be most likely a random vote to give them a "townie"/double agent role for future days. If you look to my post in this day you'll note the timing of Aman's claim vs. the people NK'ed. Is it possible one of the NK's had that role before Aman could participate. Yes
As you said later in your post Sitro it made no sense for the mafia to target ogogo no ice with 3 openly claimed power roles. So if you look at the 3 of them Aman & Jaago seem to click in their lingo and code. However, I was giving grace to this with my trump factor of being that such a role should have been killed last night. I figured 3 possibilities
A.) Night 3 Aman targets self, mafia does not make the same selection resulting in mafia kill of choice
B.) Night 3 Aman target not self, mafia doesn't make the same selection
C.) Bogus claim Mafia target as normal
Judging from Aman's style in this game (brass balls) I figured B. With the result of this and Aman comment to Jaago about "Not me". I figure now going into night 4 Aman targets self. To lead to survival today day 5.
I'm not going to post this till Aman has made some sort of comment. (I'm in hopes of another not me or claim responsibility comment). And now that he has and did not make a comment I hold more suspect. But with 3 power roles to chose from (if believed all are honest) he has 64% chance of being around in day 6


Nolecub
Do you believe his doctor claim? If not, why?
For today & day 6 yes. Nolecub has taken a risk stating he will use the doc ability on himself. As such mafia either believe it and chose a target that they can land a hit on, or call his bluff. The result will either be a no kill or kill and both ways Nolecub would not be in danger from a NK in night 5. Night 6 will be different and survival there would cause me to rethink alignment

Soylentred
Has claimed a minor townie role in the past when under pressure of votes. Do you believe she has one? If not, why do you think she claimed to? (If you think she's mafia then you might as well just say that, if not, explain why a townie would need to lie about that.)
I believe their are better targets than Soy ATM for a lynch. I believes she is a mason

Ankeli
Do you think he was mafia? Such an occurrence would explain why Hey could be interpreted as being surprised at Night 3, but is a less cautious assumption to make.
Statistics say no, but we got mafia 2 nights in a row with little clues.

spigot
Has been very quiet of late. Yesterday's post told us everything that happened but was not supported with enough analysis of what happened by far. Also, there were some glaring mistakes in the description of what happened. Do you believe there could be any other reason behind this?
Spigot has my confidence, right or wrong

@Sit for your post 488: Your mafia point system has pointed to 2-3 townies at different times as being number 1. I give it a 2.437
@Soy upon checking posts before i post I saw 492...Ogogo on ice's nk would be logical if you consider the roles and powers being claimed and the blanket effect they can have if they all select different players. The blanket of protection can only extend so far. I'm glad to see I was right on your claim mason. I was hopeing for it. With all the power roles out there I hope someone(or more) back you up.
Vote Jaago
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Bob - again keeping a low profile and starts the day with a rather venomous reply

Sorry, forgot the :tongue:

@SiTro - I will respond to the questions in your post if, and only if, I feel like it :tongue:

Regarding the point-o-meter, lame. 0 of 10 in it's current incarnation. Spruce it up a bit with specific posts and I'll reconsider.

@Aman-
:tongue:
(Preview post edit - I was going to vote Jaago, but I see mention of a lock and don't want to act prematurely, so I'll remove that part. The emoticon still stands regarding his voting Jaago comment)

And, lets see here, um . . .
@Soylentred
:tongue:
(I don't know why, just wanted to use my my 5 emoticon allotment.


 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

It is still early in the day and Jaago already has 2 votes. A couple of bandwagon votes and the mafia can jump in and lock in the lynch. I will hold off my vote until later this evening/tomorrow morning.
 
Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

@Nolecub I'd hold your vote and watch the up coming event. My decision is simple with the amount of players in the beginning of this game. I assume a 1/3, 1/4, or 1/5 ratio of mafia to town. Baring a traitor role from my consideration... I through out 1/3 it would have a dynamic if 5 mafia in day 1 that would equal 1/2+ the requirement to lynch someone. 1/5 means 3 mafia of which 2 is down so I think this is not the balance. To me 1/4 and we have 2 mafia left at worst case 3. We have 10 players ATM. Losing 2 today worst case makes it 8/3 worst case or 8/2. So I think calling the bluff on Jaago or making others put more on the table regarding him would tell the town more from a lynch. His decision to come out and admit a role while not in the spotlight makes me wonder. And as you said the bandwagoners... That was why I voted for Orphan when I did so I can see who jump to who's ship. And my jump ship yesterday on you lead the pack to follow me. So hold on its going to be a nice ride...
edit as I relook before posting... Good you took the advice before i said it
 
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