Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre
10 people left alive, so we have 3-4 days left, depending on whether we can lynch a mafioso in the first 3.
This request goes out to the entire town, even those people on the list I'm about to make. I'd like to hear people's opinions on the following issues:
aman
Specifically, how far do you believe his claim to have messed with the mafia's plans to nk other townies? To what extent to you disbelieve it and why?
Nolecub
Do you believe his doctor claim? If not, why?
Soylentred
Has claimed a minor townie role in the past when under pressure of votes. Do you believe she has one? If not, why do you think she claimed to? (If you think she's mafia then you might as well just say that, if not, explain why a townie would need to lie about that.)
Ankeli
Do you think he was mafia? Such an occurence would explain why Hey could be interpreted as being surprised at Night 3, but is a less cautious assumption to make.
spigot
Has been very quiet of late. Yesterday's post told us everything that happened but was not supported with enough analysis of what happened by far. Also, there were some glaring mistakes in the description of what happened. Do you believe there could be any other reason behind this?
Now, this wouldn't be fair if I asked all this and didn't give my personal views. So:
aman
Am tempted to believe what he says. Yes, he roleclaims without a second thought. But he's normally more keen to move on and claim something else when he does. For those who are unaware he's been sticking to the same thread throughout this game, which is quite rare. Ergo, based on these hints, I'm currently assuming he's townie.
Nolecub
As I said yesterday, a doctor is the best role for a mafia to claim under the threat of a lynch. The fact that Nolecub seems to have peppered his posts with hints adds an extra dimension. There is no reason for a doctor to hint at their role. So, this reduces the question down significantly. Nolecub is either a bad doctor who laid evidence that he was the doctor, or he is a good mafia player who laid such hints to prepare for a possible future lynch. At the moment I'm prepared to believe the former. Check aman's CF game, where Dr. Nolecub was lynched by the town on the first day. I think it's possible that this experience would have skewed him, and these hints were an attempt to stop the same thing from happenng again.*
Soylentred
Hard to say anything here lest the day become another fight and we lose focus here. I believe she probably is a townie with a role. Obsessed with keeping a clean sheet for some reason. Interesting enough.
Ankeli
I'm of the view that assuming him to be a mafia is too risky here. In the worst case scenario, i.e. he was townie, then assuming him to be a townie means we aren't overly optimistic and thinking we have less of a task ahead of us than we do.
spigot
I don't trust him. Making such a list but with no thoughts about it means that as people read through it they assume his version of events by default. Also, if people want to be lazy then they just refer back to this and make mistakes in their reasoning based on that.
Now, some thoughts about last night. It confuses me. Ogogo was not the optimal choice for the mafia. He was looking suspicious to a number of people, which means he was inadvertantly running interference for the mafia. Had they left him alive we'd have had a chance of lynching him instead of an actual bad guy. As well as which, there's no shortage of mostly-confirmed townies about, so why not pick off one of those? Did aman scare them that much with his comments about sending Soylentred or MassiveSin on a trip? Or was this due to aman after all?
*Yes, it references previous games. But in a behavioural sense rather than a direct correlation.